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timmy1
05 Feb 23 11:58
Joined:
Date Joined: 27 May 11
| Topic/replies: 200 | Blogger: timmy1's blog
Fancy two for the Lincoln.  AKHU NAJLA and AL MUBHIR  Both fairly lightly raced and held Group one entries as three year olds.
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Report unclepuncle February 12, 2023 12:14 PM GMT
Wanees would be my choice - 14/1 is fair if he is an intended runner?
Report WhiteHatJon February 21, 2023 9:48 AM GMT
I've had a small interest on Great Max.

Used to be with M.Bell in UK and then M.O'Callaghan in Ire, now with Alice Haynes.

Just a guess on my part, but at 35/1 ew 4 places (WH price boost), that will do for me at this stage.
Report The Dragon February 28, 2023 7:48 PM GMT
Unforgotten 12/1.

Beat Tropez Power that  has just hosed up.

Big chance
Report Hushwing. March 6, 2023 2:15 PM GMT
I prefer the 5yos+ , reckon the lightly raced Haggas , Montassib , will have improved significantly over the winter.
Report johnnyrant March 22, 2023 9:45 AM GMT
Like Montassib too. Improving profile last year, unlucky in a couple of runs. When he won at Goodwood he looked a Group horse in the making.
Report betilyerded March 22, 2023 10:22 AM GMT
Think Empirestateofmind is worth a stab @ 33-1. Just kept improving last season and has C&D form.
Report the fink sisters March 26, 2023 10:17 AM BST
I’m with unclepuncle. Wannees for me. If it runs/gets in. 6th in the Britannia at Royal Ascot and seemed to have improved for a gelding operation.
Report harry callaghan March 26, 2023 11:48 AM BST
You can see the haggis horses and Crisford horse taking plenty of money in this. Haggis has a nice guide after taking the Irish version yesterday
Report .Marksman. March 27, 2023 10:09 AM BST
Al Mubhir is a lay for me at current prices;
1 His only win on a straight course (and run, for that matter) was on debut at Newmarket in a maiden, so he has no experience of a cavalry charge.
2 His win at Haydock was on heavy and the horses immediately behind him have let the form down since.  (The second that day was 50/1)
3 He is not the only Haggas runner currently fancied for this race.

He could win, but looks poor value to me. The trainer's record and reputation seems to have already been factored into the price.
Report .Marksman. March 27, 2023 10:10 AM BST
(By "cavalry charge" I mean big field handicaps on straight courses, not maidens)
Report .Marksman. March 27, 2023 2:57 PM BST
I see that Billy Loughnane is down to ride at Doncaster on Saturday.  Surely he will get a ride in the Lincoln.  Already as competent as most of the experienced jocks, his 5lb claim could be really significant in a fast run race, especially if the ground is soft.
Report FOYLESWAR March 27, 2023 3:48 PM BST
yes marksman reckon his agents phone is red hot atm.
Report liberator of the oppressed March 27, 2023 3:50 PM BST
More it rains which looks more than a possibility more Awaal wins by just a thought. I've been doing me dance but isn't working think are blue skies at Donnie from forecast 11/2 still looks generous.
Report .Marksman. March 28, 2023 2:52 PM BST
Billy Loughnane booked for Air to Air, who needs 1 to come out.  Currently 40/1 with Hills and 33/1 generally.
Report liberator of the oppressed March 28, 2023 8:16 PM BST
Its going to rain all remainder this week the dance + pom pom obviously worked.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl March 28, 2023 10:22 PM BST
Here we go again first act of the great Spring Double. I'm with the liberator on this. Awaal for me too, especially on formlines he should beat Al Mubhir all day long.
Report harry callaghan March 29, 2023 1:00 PM BST
Very tough handicap to fathom. I get the angle with all horses mentioned above however I’m not sure is going to be easy to get the money at the weights
Report .Marksman. March 29, 2023 9:57 PM BST
I have looked at the stats for claiming jockeys in the Lincoln going back to 1997 and there have only been 2 wins from 98 rides. This low percentage surprised me as I thought that this type of race would be an ideal stepping stone for a young apprentice.

    Date        Jockey        Allowance        Placing   
    1998-03-28         Adrian McCarthy        5        13   
    1998-03-28         C Lowther        3        16   
    1998-03-28         Paul Fessey        3        18   
    1999-03-27         Paul Doe        3        6   
    1999-03-27         Neil Pollard        3        16   
    2000-03-25         Robbie Fitzpatrick        3        2   
    2000-03-25         Paul Fitzsimons        5        5   
    2000-03-25         Paul Goode        5        7   
    2001-03-24         Richard Smith        5        7   
    2001-03-24         Paul Fitzsimons        3        12   
    2001-03-24         K Dalgleish        3        13   
    2001-03-24         Clare Roche        7        16   
    2002-03-23         David Kinsella        5        4   
    2002-03-23         Richard Smith        5        8   
    2002-03-23         Darren Williams        3        9   
    2002-03-23         Steve Carson        3        13   
    2002-03-23         Dean Corby        7        14   
    2003-03-22         Liam Keniry        5        6   
    2003-03-22         P J Scallan        3        10   
    2003-03-22         Lisa Jones        7        15   
    2003-03-22         Ryan Moore        3        18   
    2003-03-22         Tom Queally        3        19   
    2003-03-22         Chris D Cogan        5        22   
    2004-03-27         Tony Hamilton        3        4   
    2004-03-27         Dean Corby        3        6   
    2004-03-27         Liam Keniry        3        10   
    2005-04-02         Tom Eaves        3        10   
    2005-04-02         Paul Mulrennan        3        11   
    2005-04-02         Andrew Mullen        7        14   
    2005-04-02         Duran Fentiman        7        18   
    2006-03-25         Saleem Golam        3        6   
    2006-03-25         Eddie Creighton        3        10   
    2006-03-25         Chris Hayes        5        11   
    2006-03-25         Paul Mulrennan        3        13   
    2006-03-25         Andrew Mullen        5        15   
    2006-03-25         David Nolan        3        28   
    2007-03-31         W J Lee        3        7   
    2007-03-31         William Carson        7        17   
    2007-03-31         Saleem Golam        3        20   
    2008-03-22         Barry McHugh        7        2   
    2008-03-22         William Buick        3        7   
    2009-03-28         Martin Lane        5        6   
    2009-03-28         Frederik Tylicki        5        7   
    2009-03-28         Jack Mitchell        3        10   
    2009-03-28         Michael Metcalfe        5        13   
    2010-03-27         William Carson        3        2   
    2010-03-27         Lee Topliss        7        5   
    2010-03-27         Barry McHugh        3        9   
    2010-03-27         Declan Cannon        5        13   
    2010-03-27         Amy Ryan        5        17   
    2011-04-02         Lee Topliss        5        12   
    2011-04-02         Billy Cray        3        17   
    2011-04-02         George Chaloner        7        19   
    2012-03-31         Adam Beschizza        3        3   
    2012-03-31         Ryan Clark        3        8   
    2012-03-31         Raul Da Silva        5        21   
    2013-03-30         Darren Egan        3        1   
    2013-03-30         Lee Topliss        3        4   
    2013-03-30         George Chaloner        7        7   
    2013-03-30         Robert Tart        5        8   
    2013-03-30         David Bergin        7        12   
    2013-03-30         Luke Leadbitter        7        14   
    2013-03-30         Natasha Eaton        5        18   
    2014-03-29         Oisin Murphy        3        2   
    2014-03-29         Julie Burke        3        3   
    2014-03-29         Ryan Tate        5        9   
    2014-03-29         George Chaloner        3        10   
    2014-03-29         Jason Hart        3        14   
    2014-03-29         Joe Doyle        7        15   
    2015-03-28         Louis Steward        3        12   
    2015-03-28         Shelley Birkett        3        14   
    2015-03-28         Joe Doyle        5        16   
    2015-03-28         Jack Garritty        5        17   
    2015-03-28         Kieran Shoemark        5        20   
    2015-03-28         Jordan Vaughan        5        22   
    2016-04-02         Josh Doyle        5        4   
    2016-04-02         Sammy Jo Bell        3        8   
    2016-04-02         Adam McNamara        7        16   
    2016-04-02         Daniel Muscutt        3        21   
    2017-04-01         Adam McNamara        3        4   
    2017-04-01         Shelley Birkett        3        7   
    2017-04-01         Jordan Vaughan        3        10   
    2017-04-01         Lulu Stanford        5        12   
    2017-04-01         Ben Robinson        7        14   
    2017-04-01         Connor Murtagh        7        17   
    2017-04-01         Sammy Jo Bell        3        20   
    2018-03-24         Jason Watson        7        20   
    2019-03-30         Cameron Noble        5        6   
    2019-03-30         Conor McGovern        3        10   
    2019-03-30         Andrew Breslin        5        15   
    2021-03-27         Benoit De La Sayette        7        1   
    2021-03-27         Sean Kirrane        5        3   
    2021-03-27         Angus Villiers        5        6   
    2021-03-27         William Carver        5        8   
    2022-03-26         Jonny Peate        7        5   
    2022-03-26         Harry Davies        7        7   
    2022-03-26         Ryan Sexton        7        10   
    2022-03-26         Theodore Ladd        3        19   
Report johnnyrant March 30, 2023 8:49 AM BST
Going now heavy, soft in places after heavy rain last night.
Report cryoftruth March 30, 2023 11:51 AM BST
My own shot at this (apart from about 9 others) is Yanifer.

He is a ludicrously long price for a horse with his profile. A pound each way is sufficient I think.
Report harry callaghan March 30, 2023 7:56 PM BST
Al mubhir had wind surgery

Couple of interesting additions yanifer and majestic adds more spice to an already fiendish looking handicap
Report morpteh mackem March 30, 2023 8:29 PM BST
low draw(  10 or below )  looks to be place to be when soft
Report .Marksman. March 31, 2023 1:46 PM BST
Two horses running as geldings for the first time:
Awaal
Jimi Hendrix
Report Facts April 1, 2023 4:39 AM BST
.Marksman

Or another way, apprentice ridden horses have won twice in the last 9 years.
Report unclepuncle April 1, 2023 11:43 AM BST
Can understand the strong support for Al Mubhir who ticks every box - profile, ground, draw, trainer etc.

Not sure the draw has done my antepost pick Wanees any favours.Sad

Hard to see beyond the front three or four in the market but if there is to be a boil over then the rank outsider Witch Hunter might be worth a quid at 120 on here or 66/1 e/w 7 places Stamina doubt but should relish the going on breeding so could find improvement.
Report sageform April 1, 2023 1:00 PM BST
RPR go for Bopedro. Second at Doncaster on heavy over 7 furlongs in October but has done well at a mile.
Report penzance April 1, 2023 2:05 PM BST
Backed Eilean Dubh E/W with the books 50/1 (6Plcs) & bigger
on here.Has got some Sft/Hvy ground form in France.Looks
like he was out for the fresh air LTO,will strip a lot
fitter today.
   GL ALL
Report harry callaghan April 1, 2023 3:03 PM BST
I like eileen penzance just not convinced about the going
Report Facts April 1, 2023 10:45 PM BST
3 in 10 years now
Report .Marksman. April 1, 2023 10:51 PM BST
So I noticed...perhaps it is time to investigate other big field handicaps to see if there is a trend.  I still think one of these big handicaps will go Billy Loughnane's way.  He must have been disappointed when Air To Air was a non-runner after being booked for the ride.
Report Facts April 1, 2023 11:17 PM BST
Definitely a bright future for the lad.
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