2023 2000 Guineas

It is looking a very open year, I agree.

Little Big Bear has looked well above average but needs to prove he will stay the 1m.

I wouldn't give up hope on Nostrum yet. He still looks very raw to me and can only improve for another year.

Chaldean hasn't got the credit he deserves for winning the Dewhurst I believe. He set some decent fractions through out the 7f and goes into winter with a great chance for next year Guineas.

The Varian horse is another on the shortlist having strolled home in the Mill Reef

don't see LBB staying the rowley mile.  Chaldean did not look that impressive although probably used up a lot of petrol early on by missing the break then being sent quickly up to the front.

Not sure about that ST.

Little Big Bear has a few sibs who stayed okay, and there is tons of stamina on the dam’s side. Admittedly he does look fast though, so we’ll see!

I would fancy Royal S.  to reverse the Dewhurst form with Chaldean over a mile myself. And not just because one is 25 and the other 8s either.

King Charles 3 to have his coronation on May 6
Expect Royal Scotsman to be a popular bet on the day

Quite surprised in the weakness in Auguste Rodin today, even taking into account the bad ground. His form on the track so far has been moderate. His Gp2 win last time not even meriting Listed class on my figures so he isn't one I personally want to back. Nevertheless he's obviously been highly thought of at Ballydoyle so I would expect him to be capable of more than he's shown. For me, the second in the market, Epictetus, only put up a Listed class performance last time in the Autumn Stakes. This is a pathetically weak renewal of the Futurity and if AR has any possibility of even being in contention for a classic he ought to be hammering this lot.

I ought to have given Holloway Boy a mention, as on overall form he is my highest rated. However, his best run in my view was his debut. Ever since he has slightly declined on each run, with his latest run being the biggest drop off, so that doesn't inspire confidence.

Well, hammer them he did. I was pretty impressed, much more so than with Luxembourg last year. That said, I think he's going to need to improve another 4 or 5lbs to take an average Guineas. On the whole this year's 2yos haven't been outstanding, so maybe he won't be facing an average Guineas field, but at the kind of price he is now I wouldn't be pinning my hopes on that happening. Maybe he will find the necessary improvement. To hear most pundits talk you'd think it was a foregone conclusion that all these nice 2yos improve as 3yos, but in my experience that is a lot of guff. Some of the very top 2yos do but more don't.

Regarding his Derby prospects I think it was an excellent trial. If he could just repeat today's performance over the longer trip I believe he'd take an average Derby and it would take a really good one to beat him. It will be interesting to see if they target him at both Classics. If he does improve then he'd have a great chance of winning both. If he doesn't improve then his Derby chance may well be squandered with a hard race in the Guineas. Without further progress I think his best chance of winning the Derby would be to avoid Newmarket, give him an easy trial on home soil, saving the one big effort for Epsom.

Yes Derrinstown in May and then the Derby for this horse if he was mine.

i was very impressed - maybe more of a Derby horse but the stable usually seem to go Guineas to Derby with their really good ones e.g. Australia, Camelot

AOB, plz do not prep Auguste Rodin for this. The Dante and Epsom Derby are his races.

Anybody have a strong opinion on Noble Style getting the mile? Or maybe even have doubts despite his breeding?

Hard to be sure but I am very doubtful he could stay a mile well Figgis.

He is by a miler out of a mare who is quite speedily bred and she was best at 6 furlongs. He is also very fast and looks top class over 6 furlongs. If he did stay a mile well he would be very dangerous in the Guineas but it’s not likely I don’t think personally.

the Guineas is hardly ever won by a speedy 6f-type 2yo - and when illness ruled him out this colt was being aimed at the Middle Park rather than a 7f or mile race suggesting the stable doubt his stamina. like Little Big Bear I don't see him as a Guineas winner

Cheers COT, I'm not confident either way but, like you, would side on doubtful.

A_T, yes we don't often get a Guineas winner who as a 2yo didn't win, or at least show decent form, over 7f+. From memory I think the last one was Island Sands, who was probably the worst Guineas winner I've seen. Clearly it doesn't mean it can't be done. Brigadier Gerard was obviously one of the all time great milers. Just seems that for many years now when trainers keep their 2yo colts to 6f there is little chance of them staying further next season.

Not many win the Gimcrack & Guineas.The last was
Rock Of Gibraltar who did win that years Dewhurst.
Chaldean looks the best Guineas rnr to me atm.

Fair comment Figgis,  about Island Sands, iirc he went to stud in China, which tells it's own story.

Of course there was one group one 2yo who proved above average at 3.
And 4.

The Brigadier.

Maybe only Frankel since that great horse would have laid a Gove on him.

Sorry should have said over 6 furlongs at 2.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_Nxc0bBuOY

Is some evidence.

Possibly the greatest 2000 Guineas ever.

And of course as a 2 yo Mille Reef put in a quite reasonable performance in the Gimcrack before being killed by The Brigadier, prior to trotting up in a Derby, Eclipse, Kimg George and Arc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cH1hn8aBDJY

Is still quite a watch after all these years.

epictetus ran a good race in 2nd in the futurity behind auguste rodin he was distracted by holloway boy swerving all over the shop and would have finished closer auguste rodin the derby fav  possible the ballydoyle horse  will use the guineas as a trial  and he looks as though further  suit  anyway on breeding . epictetus by kingman -thistlebird ,auguste 4/1 ....epictetus 33/1  slys  )(and 25/1 generally ,auguste had gone past the gosden horse at donny but frankie was stoking up epictetus and was badly checked by holloway boy and lost momentum but frankie got him going again and he ran on well  , might be better over 10f but the price looks big imo.

Just 7 weeks this coming weekend. The tow market leaders are from AOB duo with Little Big Bear just shading Auguste Rodin. The former is a shortie for Epsom too.

epictetus not entered........... ?

Nothing to separate the front two from AOB. Take your pick folks.

Hard to knock Chaldean. We get the AOB hype every year - sometimes it comes to fruition, sometimes not. Little Big Bear looks more of a sprinter to me & Auguste Rodin 10f+.
Keep an eye on Coppice in 1000 Guineas. The sort of filly that will turn up & win the Nell Gwyn. Not sure about the Weld filly, Tahiyra, think she ideally needs plenty of dig, & could go Irish 1,000 route. Meditate, on the other hand, won't mind if it comes up quick on the Rowley Mile.

Little Big Bear is weak on The Exchange. His stablemate Auguste Rodin is much preferred here.

Little Big Bear is 10 here for £33. Has he lost a leg? I hope he's ok, by-passing this perhaps.

Same old Coolmore shenanigans. Punters left in the dark.

The market could be suggesting Auguste Rodin is the chosen mount of Moore at the moment. Quite a bit of money for just under 3/1 here. I think little doubt if the ground comes up softish. But, given history Coolmore had sold numerous dummies in the past eg Tenebrism/Magna Grecia to name one.

Less than two to go.

Shame the Gosden/King Charles horse is out. Really fancied that.

Have had a few nibbles on Holloway Boy over the winter at three figure odds and was pleased to see Christophe Soumillon has been booked.
After his shock debut win at Ascot he ran well without winning in several decent races. My theory is he needs to be held up in a big field and delivered very late. Hopefully Soumy is watching replays of Kings Best Guineas.

Have topped up at 33/1 on here.

The weather is a bit unsettled at the weekend. A likelihood of showers on friday. Similarly, showers forecast on saturday afternoon, and possibly sunday too.

Yes but Sakheer 13.5/1000 seems a bit excessive , possible NR ?

A lot of dosh for Auguste Rodin. He's into 13/8 from 9/4 (11/8 with billie). As such the value is long gone. If winning, his Derby odds will contract into odds-on, I believe.

Final decs tomorrow.

Good to firm on most of straight , and it looks like they are doing some selective watering . Its very breezy and plenty of sun today . Met Office shows a rolling scenario tomorrow with bands of heavy showers moving SW to NE across East Anglia , Turftrax gives a similar 50% chance of 1-10mm so you takes yer choice , plus bits and pieces on Sat .

Any significant draw bias? AOB's charges are in 12 and 13. Good?

Lordan not Heffernan on Little Big Bear who'll be at Naas. Utmost confidence on Auguste Rodin?

Ryan Moore was waxing after Little Big Bear won the Phoenix Stakes, but chooses Auguste Rodin over him.

Must be a good thing.

No battalion from Coolmore either. A rfc to be safe.

Absolutely hammering down at HQ, if this pattern continues it will not be good to firm and perhaps not even good.

Let's hope the ground stays suitable for most if not
all rnrs so there's no excuses.On Chaldean also with
an E/W double with Mawj in the 1000Gs.
   GL ALL

The fav has drifted slightly out to 3.05 with money for his stablemate Little Big Bear at 6 here; 5/1 best/shortest 7/2 with bookies. I hope no last minute switcheroo with pilots.

Met Office saying just the odd shower today.

According to racecourse website "organised" showers between 1pm and 4pm; heavier between 4pm and 7pm. What time is the race?

Figgis not sharing your insight pal?. Hope your well.

A tight heat this. Can't say I've got a strong view, I was looking forward to seeing nostrum as a 3 year old but injured. The O'brien horses are way to short for me. Chaldean is a good price even better last night at 8/1 he will do for me. I like noble style but as much as some think he'll get home I still see him sprinting, he is however the best horse in this imo so at a savers price I like him even with the doubts. The ground concerns me for silver knott if going on the softer side. This will help auguste rodin however and he would be my idea of a far better option than the great bear whom I haven't got as high as say the racing post have.

Be lucky in a tricky heat

Hi Harry. Comparing with the last 10 runnings, the only runner, for me, that has run fast enough to take even a poor Guineas is Noble Style. However, as already expressed, there has to be stamina doubts about him getting the mile. The first three in the betting, AR, LBR and Chaldean are the only others I have close to Guineas standard. I have them equal. Although I'm not totally confident about the mark I have LBB on. It was a difficult Curragh card to rate and the opposition ran well below form against him. It's possible he's better than I've rated. Again though there is a big stamina doubt with him.

I reckon Auguste Rodin has run fast enough to take an average Derby, but is going to need to improve a few pounds if this Guineas proves up to standard. Chaldean looks more of an out and out miler but likewise would need to improve. I have no opinion on which of those might improve the most or even if either of them will at all. They are the the most likely candidates but in a race such as this, where no runner with proven stamina has proved quite up to the job, I wouldn't be completely surprised if something else at a bigger price improves past them all. So after all that it's no bet for me Harry

Yeah, same, not a strong view tbh. The one I can't get my head round is little big bear, today will tell me more as I haven't bought his rating yet. I think we have a good bunch of sprinters for the season ahead so looking forward to seeing him and noble style run. Noble style has been given plenty of time so I'd say he isn't the easiest considering how he's been raced

Looks very open with a lot of guessing on the punters part. I think I read somewhere that Noble Style had a setback last year, may have been colic. Royal Scot has won on going with soft mentioned in going description. He was impressive that day under Jim Crowley. One is plain guessing with coolmore as per usual. Robin could be very good, but might also be ordinary. A tough race to solve. Bit like tomorrows race 1000Gns. Does any one know when Rosewell House last had a winner. Seems a very cold stable. Bit like Dick Hern with Nashwan all those years ago. He could not get a winner but lo + behold won the first race on the card so twas time to get your betting boots on (aka Julian Wilson), for the Derby and Nashwan. Very hard to be confident about DKW tomorrow in my humble opinion.

I backed Little Big Bear for this after the Anglesey but not interested in him now.

Would be against him, Noble Style and Sakheer with their stamina unproven.

The fav is plenty short enough, so had a bit on Royal Scotsman,11/1,  with a saver on Chaldean at a generous 8/1

i don't think that filly tomorrow gets beat myself, unless lezoo gets the mile which i have grave doubts. we will see but personally you don't get many looking as good as tahiyra filly wise and i think she is top class. i don't think the stable has much depth horses wise althogh although i agree it is concerning the lack of winners. i make her nearer to 11/8 so i am investing.

For what it's worth I have Tahiyra top rated, but unless it's a sub par 1000 I think she's going to need to improve a little. Even though I have her closest to winning standard of all the runners I will be laying her at these odds.

I don't think Noble Style is going to stay so I have tried to take the 12/1 on offer with a couple of firms in the same ownership for the Commonwealth Cup. Maximum stake of 42 pence with one and £1.26 with the other. What a joke this game has become when they won't even take an ante post bet any longer.

Well said Jack.
Two top men Harry and Figgis in opposite corners. Nothing in the world wrong with Tahiyra form lines. Indeed most impressive.  Stable completely out of form at this time. Cold very cold.

This rain keeps up will be a good chance will be run on Heavy.

Whoosh

Been looking for days on Chaldean for the derby as thought he could get further by his mother but no entries

Looked the winner every yard of the race.

agree looks a derby horse but balding just said staying at a mile. above average guineas winner imo

Both Ballydoyle's runners were very flat.

The race was ruined by the heavy ground. They went no pace in the early stages and many of them failed to settle properly and haven't handled the ground. Hopefully we get decent ground for the Irish Guineas and we get a proper race.

Wd penzance pal

Chaldean was far too good for them today.
Had solid form before the race,last years
Dewhurst 1st & 2nd were 1st & 3rd today
aswell.

Would like the rain to ease off now,
HC,cheers.
   GL

Well done Harry, Penzance, any other Chaldean backers. A very poor Guineas for me. With the main opposition putting up no shows Chaldean only needed to replicate his 2yo best. Tougher tests should await.

Yes well done harryand other backers of Andrew's winner. Great to see this stable thriving.8/1 harry you did well. No triple crown again for 'the lads'. I'm a great fan of this trainer but why oh why all the bullshit? Beaten 22 lengths. I also think the third ran a race full of hope for the future. Scottie was very buzzy early doors and LBB (the sprinter in the field) didn't help. As it turned out he was drawn on the wrong side. Left all alone to make his challenge until he got over towards Frankie and Oisin. Paul Cole is a fine trainer and interesting on what plan he follows with this horse. Maybe Jim Crowley did not do as well as he might have. Perhaps I may see him locally on a little piece of the 5000 acres of common lands in Kildare. We can always hope. Well done winners. Frankie why retiore ?

Looked like Royal Scotsman clipped the heals of Little Big Bear and stumbled early doors.

The only 3yo colt that I might back to beat Chaldean is Slipofthepen. He halved in price for the 2000 but was then withdrawn as not quite ready. Otherwise the Dewhurst 2yo form stood up as the best.

Well, regarding the 1000 I just about got the lay money but still a very frustrating result. As leading up to the race I'd intended to have something on Mawj after being very impressed with her latest win. The last few times I've taken a punt on horses without a decent speed figure to back up the performance it hasn't gone well though, so I talked myself out of backing her and sticking with a lay of the fav. In the end another poor Classic, in my view. So many fillies running terribly despite the ground drying out from Saturday.

Laid 4 on the day,Auguste Rodin was 1 of 'em.
Nearly got away with it with the run of King Of Steel.
Figgis
  wd
   GL