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cryoftruth
10 Oct 22 15:18
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Date Joined: 22 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 11,177 | Blogger: cryoftruth's blog
This looks as wide open as I can recall with only one obvious star - Little Big Bear. He will surely go close if he is fit and well, but his setback is not ideal and you can be sure Aiden will not rush him so there has to be some doubt about him being ready.
Maybe Auguste Rodin will be impressive enough to look like a Guineas possible in the Futurity, but he looks stoutly enough bred for a mile at 3.
With Nostrum not running that well in the Dewhurst and anyway maybe needing 10 furlongs to show his best, perhaps Royal Scotsman might be worth a stab at 25/1. He would have won the Dewhurst in a few more strides and being by Gleneagles out of a miler, should appreciate the extra furlong, perhaps improving for it. Official ratings make him 117, which would not win an average Guineas but next years does not look a great Guineas given the relative paucity of top class 2yo old colts.

Having said that, if she was mine, I would aim Tahiyra at the 2000 Guineas as she looks like a true marvel.
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Report brandyontherocks October 10, 2022 6:37 PM BST
It is looking a very open year, I agree.

Little Big Bear has looked well above average but needs to prove he will stay the 1m.

I wouldn't give up hope on Nostrum yet. He still looks very raw to me and can only improve for another year.

Chaldean hasn't got the credit he deserves for winning the Dewhurst I believe. He set some decent fractions through out the 7f and goes into winter with a great chance for next year Guineas.

The Varian horse is another on the shortlist having strolled home in the Mill Reef
Report A_T October 10, 2022 7:14 PM BST
don't see LBB staying the rowley mile.  Chaldean did not look that impressive although probably used up a lot of petrol early on by missing the break then being sent quickly up to the front.
Report cryoftruth October 10, 2022 9:40 PM BST
Not sure about that ST.

Little Big Bear has a few sibs who stayed okay, and there is tons of stamina on the dam’s side. Admittedly he does look fast though, so we’ll see!

I would fancy Royal S.  to reverse the Dewhurst form with Chaldean over a mile myself. And not just because one is 25 and the other 8s either.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! October 11, 2022 6:07 PM BST
King Charles 3 to have his coronation on May 6
Expect Royal Scotsman to be a popular bet on the day
Laugh
Report Figgis October 22, 2022 2:41 PM BST
Quite surprised in the weakness in Auguste Rodin today, even taking into account the bad ground. His form on the track so far has been moderate. His Gp2 win last time not even meriting Listed class on my figures so he isn't one I personally want to back. Nevertheless he's obviously been highly thought of at Ballydoyle so I would expect him to be capable of more than he's shown. For me, the second in the market, Epictetus, only put up a Listed class performance last time in the Autumn Stakes. This is a pathetically weak renewal of the Futurity and if AR has any possibility of even being in contention for a classic he ought to be hammering this lot.
Report Figgis October 22, 2022 2:47 PM BST
I ought to have given Holloway Boy a mention, as on overall form he is my highest rated. However, his best run in my view was his debut. Ever since he has slightly declined on each run, with his latest run being the biggest drop off, so that doesn't inspire confidence.
Report Figgis October 22, 2022 9:13 PM BST
Well, hammer them he did. I was pretty impressed, much more so than with Luxembourg last year. That said, I think he's going to need to improve another 4 or 5lbs to take an average Guineas. On the whole this year's 2yos haven't been outstanding, so maybe he won't be facing an average Guineas field, but at the kind of price he is now I wouldn't be pinning my hopes on that happening. Maybe he will find the necessary improvement. To hear most pundits talk you'd think it was a foregone conclusion that all these nice 2yos improve as 3yos, but in my experience that is a lot of guff. Some of the very top 2yos do but more don't.

Regarding his Derby prospects I think it was an excellent trial. If he could just repeat today's performance over the longer trip I believe he'd take an average Derby and it would take a really good one to beat him. It will be interesting to see if they target him at both Classics. If he does improve then he'd have a great chance of winning both. If he doesn't improve then his Derby chance may well be squandered with a hard race in the Guineas. Without further progress I think his best chance of winning the Derby would be to avoid Newmarket, give him an easy trial on home soil, saving the one big effort for Epsom.
Report Try My Best October 22, 2022 9:41 PM BST
Yes Derrinstown in May and then the Derby for this horse if he was mine.
Report A_T October 22, 2022 9:44 PM BST
i was very impressed - maybe more of a Derby horse but the stable usually seem to go Guineas to Derby with their really good ones e.g. Australia, Camelot
Report impossible123 October 24, 2022 3:17 PM BST
AOB, plz do not prep Auguste Rodin for this. The Dante and Epsom Derby are his races.
Report Figgis October 24, 2022 6:25 PM BST
Anybody have a strong opinion on Noble Style getting the mile? Or maybe even have doubts despite his breeding?
Report cryoftruth October 24, 2022 7:32 PM BST
Hard to be sure but I am very doubtful he could stay a mile well Figgis.

He is by a miler out of a mare who is quite speedily bred and she was best at 6 furlongs. He is also very fast and looks top class over 6 furlongs. If he did stay a mile well he would be very dangerous in the Guineas but it’s not likely I don’t think personally.
Report A_T October 24, 2022 8:01 PM BST
the Guineas is hardly ever won by a speedy 6f-type 2yo - and when illness ruled him out this colt was being aimed at the Middle Park rather than a 7f or mile race suggesting the stable doubt his stamina. like Little Big Bear I don't see him as a Guineas winner
Report Figgis October 24, 2022 8:20 PM BST
Cheers COT, I'm not confident either way but, like you, would side on doubtful.

A_T, yes we don't often get a Guineas winner who as a 2yo didn't win, or at least show decent form, over 7f+. From memory I think the last one was Island Sands, who was probably the worst Guineas winner I've seen. Clearly it doesn't mean it can't be done. Brigadier Gerard was obviously one of the all time great milers. Just seems that for many years now when trainers keep their 2yo colts to 6f there is little chance of them staying further next season.
Report penzance October 24, 2022 10:16 PM BST
Not many win the Gimcrack & Guineas.The last was
Rock Of Gibraltar who did win that years Dewhurst.
Chaldean looks the best Guineas rnr to me atm.
Report G Hall October 25, 2022 10:29 PM BST
Fair comment Figgis,  about Island Sands, iirc he went to stud in China, which tells it's own story.
Report cryoftruth October 28, 2022 10:27 PM BST
Of course there was one group one 2yo who proved above average at 3.
And 4.

The Brigadier.

Maybe only Frankel since that great horse would have laid a Gove on him.
Report cryoftruth October 28, 2022 10:27 PM BST
Sorry should have said over 6 furlongs at 2.
Report cryoftruth October 28, 2022 10:29 PM BST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_Nxc0bBuOY

Is some evidence.

Possibly the greatest 2000 Guineas ever.
Report cryoftruth October 28, 2022 10:37 PM BST
And of course as a 2 yo Mille Reef put in a quite reasonable performance in the Gimcrack before being killed by The Brigadier, prior to trotting up in a Derby, Eclipse, Kimg George and Arc.
Report cryoftruth October 28, 2022 10:38 PM BST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cH1hn8aBDJY

Is still quite a watch after all these years.
Report FOYLESWAR February 7, 2023 6:29 PM GMT
epictetus ran a good race in 2nd in the futurity behind auguste rodin he was distracted by holloway boy swerving all over the shop and would have finished closer auguste rodin the derby fav  possible the ballydoyle horse  will use the guineas as a trial  and he looks as though further  suit  anyway on breeding . epictetus by kingman -thistlebird ,auguste 4/1 ....epictetus 33/1  slys  )(and 25/1 generally ,auguste had gone past the gosden horse at donny but frankie was stoking up epictetus and was badly checked by holloway boy and lost momentum but frankie got him going again and he ran on well  , might be better over 10f but the price looks big imo.
Report impossible123 March 21, 2023 10:54 AM GMT
Just 7 weeks this coming weekend. The tow market leaders are from AOB duo with Little Big Bear just shading Auguste Rodin. The former is a shortie for Epsom too.
Report FOYLESWAR March 22, 2023 9:20 AM GMT
epictetus not entered........... ?
Report impossible123 March 27, 2023 5:56 PM BST
Nothing to separate the front two from AOB. Take your pick folks.
Report johnnyrant March 29, 2023 2:17 PM BST
Hard to knock Chaldean. We get the AOB hype every year - sometimes it comes to fruition, sometimes not. Little Big Bear looks more of a sprinter to me & Auguste Rodin 10f+.
Keep an eye on Coppice in 1000 Guineas. The sort of filly that will turn up & win the Nell Gwyn. Not sure about the Weld filly, Tahiyra, think she ideally needs plenty of dig, & could go Irish 1,000 route. Meditate, on the other hand, won't mind if it comes up quick on the Rowley Mile.
Report impossible123 April 5, 2023 12:18 AM BST
Little Big Bear is weak on The Exchange. His stablemate Auguste Rodin is much preferred here.
Report impossible123 April 5, 2023 7:59 AM BST
Little Big Bear is 10 here for £33. Has he lost a leg? I hope he's ok, by-passing this perhaps.
Report johnnyrant April 5, 2023 10:44 AM BST
Same old Coolmore shenanigans. Punters left in the dark.
Report impossible123 April 23, 2023 12:12 PM BST
The market could be suggesting Auguste Rodin is the chosen mount of Moore at the moment. Quite a bit of money for just under 3/1 here. I think little doubt if the ground comes up softish. But, given history Coolmore had sold numerous dummies in the past eg Tenebrism/Magna Grecia to name one.

Less than two to go.
Report sageform May 2, 2023 12:40 PM BST
Shame the Gosden/King Charles horse is out. Really fancied that.
Report unclepuncle May 3, 2023 8:44 AM BST
Have had a few nibbles on Holloway Boy over the winter at three figure odds and was pleased to see Christophe Soumillon has been booked.
After his shock debut win at Ascot he ran well without winning in several decent races. My theory is he needs to be held up in a big field and delivered very late. Hopefully Soumy is watching replays of Kings Best Guineas.Wink

Have topped up at 33/1 on here.
Report impossible123 May 3, 2023 10:17 AM BST
The weather is a bit unsettled at the weekend. A likelihood of showers on friday. Similarly, showers forecast on saturday afternoon, and possibly sunday too.
Report paulo47 May 3, 2023 10:47 AM BST
Yes but Sakheer 13.5/1000 seems a bit excessive , possible NR ?
Report impossible123 May 3, 2023 3:52 PM BST
A lot of dosh for Auguste Rodin. He's into 13/8 from 9/4 (11/8 with billie). As such the value is long gone. If winning, his Derby odds will contract into odds-on, I believe.

Final decs tomorrow.
Report paulo47 May 4, 2023 10:33 AM BST
Good to firm on most of straight , and it looks like they are doing some selective watering . Its very breezy and plenty of sun today . Met Office shows a rolling scenario tomorrow with bands of heavy showers moving SW to NE across East Anglia , Turftrax gives a similar 50% chance of 1-10mm so you takes yer choice , plus bits and pieces on Sat .
Report impossible123 May 4, 2023 3:12 PM BST
Any significant draw bias? AOB's charges are in 12 and 13. Good?
Report impossible123 May 4, 2023 8:34 PM BST
Lordan not Heffernan on Little Big Bear who'll be at Naas. Utmost confidence on Auguste Rodin?
Report brandyontherocks May 4, 2023 9:43 PM BST
Ryan Moore was waxing after Little Big Bear won the Phoenix Stakes, but chooses Auguste Rodin over him.

Must be a good thing.
Report impossible123 May 4, 2023 10:10 PM BST
No battalion from Coolmore either. A rfc to be safe.
Report FELTFAIR May 5, 2023 11:29 AM BST
Absolutely hammering down at HQ, if this pattern continues it will not be good to firm and perhaps not even good.
Report penzance May 5, 2023 12:29 PM BST
Let's hope the ground stays suitable for most if not
all rnrs so there's no excuses.On Chaldean also with
an E/W double with Mawj in the 1000Gs.
   GL ALL
Report impossible123 May 5, 2023 6:31 PM BST
The fav has drifted slightly out to 3.05 with money for his stablemate Little Big Bear at 6 here; 5/1 best/shortest 7/2 with bookies. I hope no last minute switcheroo with pilots.
Report brandyontherocks May 6, 2023 6:33 AM BST
Met Office saying just the odd shower today.
Report impossible123 May 6, 2023 9:21 AM BST
According to racecourse website "organised" showers between 1pm and 4pm; heavier between 4pm and 7pm. What time is the race?
Report harry callaghan May 6, 2023 12:58 PM BST
Figgis not sharing your insight pal?. Hope your well.

A tight heat this. Can't say I've got a strong view, I was looking forward to seeing nostrum as a 3 year old but injured. The O'brien horses are way to short for me. Chaldean is a good price even better last night at 8/1 he will do for me. I like noble style but as much as some think he'll get home I still see him sprinting, he is however the best horse in this imo so at a savers price I like him even with the doubts. The ground concerns me for silver knott if going on the softer side. This will help auguste rodin however and he would be my idea of a far better option than the great bear whom I haven't got as high as say the racing post have.

Be lucky in a tricky heat
Report Figgis May 6, 2023 1:12 PM BST
Hi Harry. Comparing with the last 10 runnings, the only runner, for me, that has run fast enough to take even a poor Guineas is Noble Style. However, as already expressed, there has to be stamina doubts about him getting the mile. The first three in the betting, AR, LBR and Chaldean are the only others I have close to Guineas standard. I have them equal. Although I'm not totally confident about the mark I have LBB on. It was a difficult Curragh card to rate and the opposition ran well below form against him. It's possible he's better than I've rated. Again though there is a big stamina doubt with him.

I reckon Auguste Rodin has run fast enough to take an average Derby, but is going to need to improve a few pounds if this Guineas proves up to standard. Chaldean looks more of an out and out miler but likewise would need to improve. I have no opinion on which of those might improve the most or even if either of them will at all. They are the the most likely candidates but in a race such as this, where no runner with proven stamina has proved quite up to the job, I wouldn't be completely surprised if something else at a bigger price improves past them all. So after all that it's no bet for me Harry Wink
Report harry callaghan May 6, 2023 1:27 PM BST
Yeah, same, not a strong view tbh. The one I can't get my head round is little big bear, today will tell me more as I haven't bought his rating yet. I think we have a good bunch of sprinters for the season ahead so looking forward to seeing him and noble style run. Noble style has been given plenty of time so I'd say he isn't the easiest considering how he's been raced
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl May 6, 2023 1:43 PM BST
Looks very open with a lot of guessing on the punters part. I think I read somewhere that Noble Style had a setback last year, may have been colic. Royal Scot has won on going with soft mentioned in going description. He was impressive that day under Jim Crowley. One is plain guessing with coolmore as per usual. Robin could be very good, but might also be ordinary. A tough race to solve. Bit like tomorrows race 1000Gns. Does any one know when Rosewell House last had a winner. Seems a very cold stable. Bit like Dick Hern with Nashwan all those years ago. He could not get a winner but lo + behold won the first race on the card so twas time to get your betting boots on (aka Julian Wilson), for the Derby and Nashwan. Very hard to be confident about DKW tomorrow in my humble opinion.
Report brandyontherocks May 6, 2023 1:52 PM BST
I backed Little Big Bear for this after the Anglesey but not interested in him now.

Would be against him, Noble Style and Sakheer with their stamina unproven.

The fav is plenty short enough, so had a bit on Royal Scotsman,11/1,  with a saver on Chaldean at a generous 8/1
Report harry callaghan May 6, 2023 1:58 PM BST
i don't think that filly tomorrow gets beat myself, unless lezoo gets the mile which i have grave doubts. we will see but personally you don't get many looking as good as tahiyra filly wise and i think she is top class. i don't think the stable has much depth horses wise althogh although i agree it is concerning the lack of winners. i make her nearer to 11/8 so i am investing.
Report Figgis May 6, 2023 2:15 PM BST
For what it's worth I have Tahiyra top rated, but unless it's a sub par 1000 I think she's going to need to improve a little. Even though I have her closest to winning standard of all the runners I will be laying her at these odds.
Report Jack Bauer "24" May 6, 2023 2:47 PM BST
I don't think Noble Style is going to stay so I have tried to take the 12/1 on offer with a couple of firms in the same ownership for the Commonwealth Cup. Maximum stake of 42 pence with one and £1.26 with the other. What a joke this game has become when they won't even take an ante post bet any longer.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl May 6, 2023 2:56 PM BST
Well said Jack.
Two top men Harry and Figgis in opposite corners. Nothing in the world wrong with Tahiyra form lines. Indeed most impressive.  Stable completely out of form at this time. Cold very cold.
Report penzance May 6, 2023 3:52 PM BST
This rain keeps up will be a good chance will be run on Heavy.
Report harry callaghan May 6, 2023 4:44 PM BST
Whoosh
Report harry callaghan May 6, 2023 4:47 PM BST
Been looking for days on Chaldean for the derby as thought he could get further by his mother but no entries
Report brandyontherocks May 6, 2023 4:58 PM BST
Looked the winner every yard of the race.
Report A_T May 6, 2023 4:58 PM BST
agree looks a derby horse but balding just said staying at a mile. above average guineas winner imo
Report brandyontherocks May 6, 2023 5:08 PM BST
Both Ballydoyle's runners were very flat.
Report Jack Bauer "24" May 6, 2023 5:21 PM BST
The race was ruined by the heavy ground. They went no pace in the early stages and many of them failed to settle properly and haven't handled the ground. Hopefully we get decent ground for the Irish Guineas and we get a proper race.
Report harry callaghan May 6, 2023 5:34 PM BST
Wd penzance pal
Report penzance May 6, 2023 5:39 PM BST
Chaldean was far too good for them today.
Had solid form before the race,last years
Dewhurst 1st & 2nd were 1st & 3rd today
aswell.
Report penzance May 6, 2023 5:40 PM BST
Would like the rain to ease off now,
HC,cheers.
   GL
Report Figgis May 6, 2023 6:10 PM BST
Well done Harry, Penzance, any other Chaldean backers. A very poor Guineas for me. With the main opposition putting up no shows Chaldean only needed to replicate his 2yo best. Tougher tests should await.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl May 6, 2023 6:33 PM BST
Yes well done harryand other backers of Andrew's winner. Great to see this stable thriving.8/1 harry you did well. No triple crown again for 'the lads'. I'm a great fan of this trainer but why oh why all the bullshit? Beaten 22 lengths. I also think the third ran a race full of hope for the future. Scottie was very buzzy early doors and LBB (the sprinter in the field) didn't help. As it turned out he was drawn on the wrong side. Left all alone to make his challenge until he got over towards Frankie and Oisin. Paul Cole is a fine trainer and interesting on what plan he follows with this horse. Maybe Jim Crowley did not do as well as he might have. Perhaps I may see him locally on a little piece of the 5000 acres of common lands in Kildare. We can always hope. Well done winners. Frankie why retiore ?
Report brandyontherocks May 6, 2023 6:38 PM BST
Looked like Royal Scotsman clipped the heals of Little Big Bear and stumbled early doors.
Report sageform May 7, 2023 8:06 AM BST
The only 3yo colt that I might back to beat Chaldean is Slipofthepen. He halved in price for the 2000 but was then withdrawn as not quite ready. Otherwise the Dewhurst 2yo form stood up as the best.
Report Figgis May 8, 2023 12:10 PM BST
Well, regarding the 1000 I just about got the lay money but still a very frustrating result. As leading up to the race I'd intended to have something on Mawj after being very impressed with her latest win. The last few times I've taken a punt on horses without a decent speed figure to back up the performance it hasn't gone well though, so I talked myself out of backing her and sticking with a lay of the fav. In the end another poor Classic, in my view. So many fillies running terribly despite the ground drying out from Saturday.
Report penzance June 5, 2023 2:16 PM BST
Laid 4 on the day,Auguste Rodin was 1 of 'em.
Nearly got away with it with the run of King Of Steel.
Figgis
  wd
   GL
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