The Derby 2023

You can’t imagine O’Brien not being mob handed in this after the way that august horse ran at Newmarket.

S   reasons to back Military Order

a) Brother to a Derby winner. Same owner/management.

b) Paddock judges consider him to be a fine physical specimen.

c) Tranquil nature.

d) Now quite experienced, the Derby will be his fifth race.

e) Not much time left for serious competition to emerge. Every year, it seems, Epsom is upon us before we are ready and this year they have shaved another four hours off form-study with a 13:30 racetime!

f) Versatile in his races. Leads or settles. Goes downhill and round tight corners. Steerable.

g) Goes on a variety of ground. Derby day conditions unlikely to be an inconvenience.

h) Buick's post race endorsement today.

i) The risk attached to his rival at the head of the market.

strong in the betting, under conditions similar to those which had seen him win the Futurity last autumn, talked up beforehand as a Triple Crown candidate, but he ran no sort of race after 7 months off, messed around early on, but surely more to it than that; held up, took keen hold, short of room after 2f, ridden under 3f out, soon beaten; bred to stay 1½m, he remains at the head of the market for the Derby, but whilst he'd clearly hold strong claims judged on his 2-y-o form/promise, this lacklustre display raises some questions as to whether he can repeat that.© Timeform

Front two in market currently c5.5 but the race is not very deep. Maybe a monster will emerge next Thursday..

hopefully the horse I started this thread with United! Used to work the night shift in Liverpool with United Biscuits. Straightening cream crackers on the production line from the oven.

Epictetus 5/2 with some books for the Dante.Won on his reappearance
as the 2/5 jolly @Epsom but wasn't that impressive in beating Hadrianus.
He was hammered in the Chester Vase by Arrest.This Derby looks wide open
atm.Auguste Rodin is jnt fav around 4/1 generally with the books,don't
know if anyone else agrees but to me if he weren't trained by O'Brien
he'd be double figures after that Nmt run.If I'm right that win by Epictetus
is the only decent performance by a horse to have come out of that Futurity
@Doncaster.Was it that good a race?

cant believe that military orders is 4/1 fav for the race , god sake he wasnt that impressive and i would expect better odds on the day , so its definetly a lay for me , though i admit its such a weak field at the moment.

Great early call DonegalPrince but imho you would be mad not to have a saver on Military Order.

Unless Flying Honours shoots the lights out on Thursday, Buick will be on MO at 9/4 on the day.

The horseracing journos on the payroll of bookies are beefing up the chances of Military Order whilst at the same time dissing Auguste Rodin. However, prior to the latter's "non-event" run in the 2000G these same "professional" horseracing journos were singing his praises to the tune of 6/4 fav. Now, the turn of Military Order.

A pumping-and-dumping exercise in motion?

Have White birch at 40s+ so hope he will come over for the Dante , was impressed enough in the Ballysax , dwelt, bumped and finished with purpose . Not sure how the ground will play out for him .

Military Order 119p

progressed again, having no issue with the new surface and, given his size, coping surprisingly well with the tight track (picked up really well to get the rail when a gap appeared approaching the straight), which augurs well for his Derby prospects, as does the way he saw out this 1½m trip, this the most convincing of all the trials so far this spring; waited with, travelled well, quickened to lead soon after 2f out, challenged straight, shaken up, asserted final 100 yds, had bit in hand; likely to progress further and has every chance of emulating his brother Adayar in winning the Derby at Epsom.


© Timeform

For me, in winning the Lingfield Derby trial Military Order didn't even run to the level Flying Honours did as a 2yo. Sure, he's open to further improvement, but so are others. In my view he's going to need to improve about 8 or 9lbs even to take a poor Derby. An abysmal price even if available on the day, never mind ante post.

Well, I don't think my Derby long shot will be winning.

Mornanch and Gosden not a good match. Let's hope he shows up...with a turbo in tow.

i dont think Passenger can win after that jockeys driving finish
Maybe Sprewall
Or perhaps a late French supplement

In a very open year with no outstanding contender, if Auguste Rodin really is as good as they seem to think he should be the one to beat.

Been topping up on Alder @75+ on here.Believe
they're running him in this,better ground he'll
reverse that Dee Stks form with the wnr.I think
he was the best horse in that race.Even after
the Dante this seems wide open still.12F should
be no problem to Alder either.

,don't
know if anyone else agrees but to me if he weren't trained by O'Brien
he'd be double figures after that Nmt run

indeed. when was the last time the Derby was won by a horse who ran so badly in it's previous race? beaten 22l with no real excuse - 5/1 a ludicrous price

Auguste Rodin really is as good as they seem to think he should be the one to beat

Jack, regardless of the yard's opinion (although it's obviously good to have a racecourse performance backed up by home reputation), if AR replicates his 2yo best he IS the one to beat. He doesn't even need to improve.

Yes, they look a poor crop this year.

The market does not inspire confidence including Military Order and Arrest - money for them is pittance - except Auguste Rodin. I wonder if the Coolmore "boys" endorse the unwavered confidence of his trainer.

No outstanding candidate from the Dante but very fast time so too soon to dismiss the participants.

Generous 1991 4th btn over 8Ls (2000GNS)
Dr Devious 1992 7th,also btn around 8Ls (Kentucky Derby).
Could well be the last horses to win the Derby after not
making the 3 in their previous race.
Generous turned out to be a very good horse in fairness.

Ah well. At least I was brave enough to start the  thread when they were all in nappies. Very disappointing but hey ho. That's the game. I shall be in with Military now. wait until the day. I did have a dibble on The Foxes @ 33/1 for the Derby and had a (half) decent bet today so no damage done and a good few £ on top. For what it is worth, Chesspiece is a really good horse and will win a group race.

The only two that I could take out of the Dante as possible Derby winners are The Foxes and White Birch.
White Birch was given a lot to do and will be suited by the longer trip.
Passenger couldn't get out until it was too late, and I think Kingscote was to blame for this as he was indecisive over which route to take.  But when he saw daylight he made little progress (when he should have had plenty in reserve from when he was stuck in traffic) and his run flattened out in the the last 100 yards and was joined on the line for 3rd.
Epictetus was yet another winner of the Blue Riband Trial who couldn't follow up.  (It is hard to now whether the Blue Ribband Trial is contested by inferior horses or that it has a negative effect on those who run it).
Flying Honours went lame on the quick going and I doubt whether we will see him at Epsom now.

The Dante was certainly an interesting race but threw up more questions than answers.

The long range forecast is very dry so hopefully we get ground on the fast side of good, even if they do put a load of water on it.

The Foxes showed a terrific turn of foot to go clear and maybe 10f will be his best trip. Can certainly see him hitting the front at Epsom, just whether he can stay there on the climb to the line. A back to lay if ever I saw one.

White Birch looks sure to stay and if he doesn't get too far behind he could be a real threat but I can see it being a big field given how open it looks and he may be too far back.

I didn't think Passenger was an unlucky loser. Yes he was hampered a few times but he didn't find an awful lot and I can see Stoute sticking to Royal Ascot with him.

had a small lay of passenger in the dante and a bet on the winner, think i got lucky with both bets, passenger looked like he was going to win the race, not having watched the race back that would be the interesting one going forward from the race, and should of bolted up in the race. that was only its 2nd race.

Am not an authority on how to restrain a horse from breaking smartly , but whatever they did with White Birch at Leopardstown and York could they please bin at Epsom . A repeat of its Dundalk 7f start will be fine .

If AOB only sends one, and that horse is Auguste Rodin the horse will undoubtedly be fav on the day. It's as close to the expression in the City of London "my word is my bond" ie AOB's nailing his colours to the mast.

May 21, 2023 -- 3:23AM, impossible123 wrote:

If AOB only sends one, and that horse is Auguste Rodin the horse will undoubtedly be fav on the day. It's as close to the expression in the City of London "my word is my bond" ie AOB's nailing his colours to the mast.

True but - back along - Coolmore always heavily backed theirs before the off and used a short SP to advertise the claims of a new stallion. I don't read the papers anymore but imagine that is still the case.

All the same, I think Military Order will start favourite.

If the filly wins the Oaks by a wide margin again it won't just be Coolmore backing August Rodin. I expect punters will lump on too if the trainer implies that he is much better than the filly, so it's difficult to know who will start favourite at this stage.

testing 123 am i permitted ?

Oh yes! A bit quiet here. Sign of the time, I'm afraid.

The one that I consider most dangerous to military order is sprewell

I hope he wins it for Mrs Jessica Harrington. That will be the icing on the cake for her.

Still quite weak on here August Rodin. You'd think he'd be completing his last bits of fast work so I was expecting to see money. The next couple of days will tell us more. I don't share Figgis view on his ability myself. We will see I suppose.

The amount of runners O'brien  runs will tell us a lot as most are weak on here and if they haven't the confidence in him I'd expect to see plenty take there chance. Personally I'd be running them

O'brien was interviewed,Chapman,I think & it sounded
like he's only running Auguste Rodin.

Harry, judging him as a 2yo, I wouldn't say he was exceptional by any means. However, I have him on par with Motivator when he won the same race. Motivator went on to be, in my opinion, just an up to scratch Derby winner who was made to look better than that in a weak renewal. He regressed a bit afterwards. I can see something similar happening this year, as, on paper at least, it looks a weak race. Even if the race proves up to average then Auguste Rodin is up to taking it on his best form, even though he probably wouldn't win by daylight.

There could be another massive improve lurking like Adayar the other year, but that's not something I'd want to bet on. In my view if Auguste Rodin can run to his best again then it'll take an above average winner to beat him. If he can improve a few pounds from last season then he'll be very difficult to beat. If he fails to shine at home in the days leading up to the Derby then I imagine he'll be withdrawn, as SNA was a few years ago. If it remains all systems go then it still doesn't mean for sure that he'll replicate his 2yo best, but he's the only horse I want to back, because as things stand I don't rate the opposition whatsoever.

Figgis for me I haven’t got a great rating for him he looks slow to me. The race at Doncaster was a mess of a race imo and I haven’t been able to rate the race with any conviction at all. He beat mediocre opposition at the curragh and under a proper ride as well like he was in his maiden. So until he proves me otherwise he looks just as average as the rest. Imo you have got say unless the distance really is what he wants, he isn’t an outstanding colt and this one really is in the hype category.

Of course in a weak field he is entitled to go well but no more than the others who look at group 2 level at best, he is in that same category to me. We will see but after a poor prep in which he was barged in fairness I have no conviction to take the plunge. I still want to see a deep impact round Epsom as well.

Much to ponder

I will add you are certainly getting a good price on him, that I won’t argue with. If O’Brien is right and your good self he is 9/4 here.

I’ve struggled with his rating myself and him as an individual, so not sure what price would get me interested in backing him, have no conviction at all myself

Harry, if I knew for a fact that his last race was just a one off poor run, and not a sign of him going backwards, I'd be content to back him at anything over even money. Therefore the question is how to factor into his price the possibility that he may already be in decline, or in need of more time to recapture his best. In my opinion this is far more difficult than weighing up his form chance, but I reckon anything more than 3/1 on the day is generous.

AOB is staking his reputation on the line. He'd also be calling the bookies' bluff. Next move is for the Coolmore boys to cement AOB's reputation and confidence.

??

What does any of that mean ????

O'brien was interviewed,Chapman,I think & it soundedlike he's only running Auguste Rodin.

i'd say a reflection of the standard of his 3yo colts - nothing at all came out of the trials

auguste rodin was talked about being a possible triple crown winner, have had a look at some of the formlines, couldnt back that for the derby after that bad run in the guineas, only horse that would be interested in betting is passenger thats if it runs, judge that as the best derby prospect ive seen run

I'd like to think if Auguste Rodin bombs (again) the most likely winner would be Sprewell or Arrest for his trainer, and sire respectively.

I think the 1-2 finish of AOB's 2nd string in the Irish 2000G has restored faith in Auguste Rodin for Epsom. Let's hope he wins with authority next saturday.

After the reincarnation of the orientation stable at the weekend it seems the money is going to come for auguste Rodin. I can see him going off strong favourite now in a weak/fickle market so far. It will be interesting to see how passenger goes as well market wise. If this we're to happen military order could end up being a drifter/throw out imo, similar to arrest although arrest did win on fast ground as a juvenile. We will see, an interesting week ahead market wise.

O'brien stable ^

Looking at the pace in the race. I can only really find dubai mile who looks like getting it easy on the front end and he'd be a dangerous horse if loose, unless O'brien decides to run something else to keep it honest on the front

My  stakes so far £1276 passenger win 3028 and Augusts Rodin win 1507, won all the stake money today

White Birch at 18.5 is interesting.
I can't see why Passenger is 6.4. 
Only two races.  He won a maiden this year and then the gaps were going faster than he was in the Dante.

Well at least O'Brien leaving San Antonio in at the 5 day stage meant I could lay off all of my Betfair stake plus a bit more at 75. Still going to lose my original score at 50's with the bookies.

I put it all that money back on The Foxes at 12 but he is now looking very weak on here - is something up???

that was the fastest dante in history due to the firm ground, they are watering all week at the epsom track, could see the track record broken on the weekend

I font think these horses will be breaking any track records roadrunner

Unless of course Auguste rodin is an aeroplane at the new distance

Maybe he wont need to be an aeroplane. Looks very weak race. Word for both AR and Paddington was very strong on the Curragh last weekend, especially with ground like the road. Ballydoyle love it firm.

ballydoyle certainly knew there was a golden rail that is for sure jaytrump, they took every horse straight to it. The horses have certainly improved remarkably from first start to second that is for sure, paddington from a mere handicap and others this year showing unbelievable improvement. Maybe a change of feed again

Definitely improvement all round, I wont write off the 2000gns fav as both father and son were shattered afterwards. The bowser was out between races but was it out Friday night ? Lads own this track and the old pals act maybe alive and well. Track was super hard Friday night.

More money for Auguste Rodin. I hope it's from the Coolmore boys, and their privileged friends.

Further drift on The Foxes - I must have been the captain of the Titanic in a past life.

O’Brien now stating San Antonio is an intended runner having said the exact opposite on Monday.

Given my antepost position I’m obviously pleased,, assuming he runs, but could have done without all the shenanigans.

they  ante post betting  gods like to make us sweat a bit uncle !

You could have laid off at 38 for a green punkle. The punter that got the 75 surely delighted

Tell me about it Harry.

I only laid off my bets on here because he was supposedly a non runner and I thought I could at least get some stake money back to place on my next fancy The Foxes.
I'm still £400 green on here for San Antonio and have the £20 at 50/1 with VCBet.

I'm surprised he is still available at 33/1, or bigger on here, as I would have thought 16/1-20/1 would be about right.
Once he's definitely declared I'll go in again at 33/1+ as I think the change of mind is pretty significant.

TBH the money is of secondary importance - the real thrill if he wins will be the kudos I can expect for putting him in early April when he wasn't even quoted in the market on here.

I doubt we will see the track record broken, Roadrunner.

They will be putting plenty of water on to maintain good ground. Especially as there will be a presence of demonstrators.

my final stakes are £1896 auguste rodin to win 2313 passenger 3907, dont win any more money if the track record gets broken, just hope that early race time doesnt have an adverse effect on the result. goodluck everyone

You've got a runner Uncle

uncle,
I didn't here AOB say that San Antonio wouldn't run.  Do you have a link to the article (or video)?

Well it looks like Auguste Rodin will go off favourite and fair play if you that coming.

Can't have it myself, nor Passenger (though I suspect Ryan Moore would rather be on Passenger).  I'll be on Military Order, happy with the price around 6.0 and expect a great race.

Arrest was 10.5 when I looked last week. Now sub 6 despite big support for AR in that time !

https://www.racingpost.com/news/festivals/derby-festival/obrien-keeping-derby-faith-in-auguste-rodin-as-guineas-flop-set-to-be-joined-by-just-two-outsiders-at-epsom-aWqU79d1t77r/

Racing Post on Monday after decs came out:

Aidan O'Brien's unwavering faith in Auguste Rodin is showing no signs of fading as the big 2,000 Guineas flop will be joined by just a pair of rank outsiders from Ballydoyle in the Betfred Derby (1.30) on Saturday.
Dee Stakes winner San Antonio will wait for the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly on Sunday, leaving 80-1 shot Adelaide River and 100-1 rag Covent Garden to complete the team for O'Brien, who is searching for a record-extending ninth win in the famous Classic.

Article not fully available to non subscribers now but sure there was an actual quote from O’Brien saying much the same.

Doesn’t matter now.

artistic price has a mountain to climb according to the ratings but he is unbeaten and as yet totally unexposed ,by gallileo and should get the trip ,beckett went close last year and this one just looks too big at 40/1 books and 50s plus on here and could run outrun his odds .

have had a crack at 40s ew  b365 ^^^

Hope the wnr comes out & does it well.
GL to those on a rnr.

Thanks uncle,
You can tell that I am not a subscriber to Racing Post!

the support for AR is baffling. almost as if some punters seem unable to comprehend the idea of a Derby not being won by Ballydoyle. Will finish nearer last than first imo.

A_T, is that because you don't believe AR will return to form? Or that you believe he isn't good enough anyway?

Quite a trappy race for me.
I backed Artistic Star 6 weeks ago, but do not hold out any hope on him.

I can not back a horse who was tailed off last time, so I am against Auguste. Plus his two year old form is not stacking up.
Military Order did not impress me at Lingfield.
Arrest looks like he wants cut with his round action.
San Antonio was earmarked to run in France for the Jockey Club, so must have impressed at home for them to change plans. Interesting.
I have sided with Passenger IF I can get 9/1 about him. Very un-Stoute like to throw a horse like this into a Derby.

GL all

I'm backing Passenger today despite 4 negatives: he didn't win his trial; he was keener than ideal lto; he's not certain to relish 12f at this stage in his development; the jockey can't be especially confident right now - he doesn't get many opportunities in big races, and the last 3 haven't gone as he might have wished.
However, I feel this is the most talented colt in the line up, on all known evidence. To travel so sweetly in a competitive Dante just a month after winning a risibly uncompetitive maiden was very impressive, and he might have learnt a lot at York. The step up this time is a lot less daunting than the maiden-Dante step. He has more scope for improvement than his rivals, and he's already almost up to their level. If he settles and stays, and if Kingscote doesn't mess it up, I'm sure he'll win. In my view, the price accommodates these doubts.
Artistic Star is a fascinating colt but surely this is too big a step up in class. I just can't see anything else in the race that will obviously have the speed to travel and the stamina to stay on. Surely this isn't a Derby for the 'certain stayer.' Arrest and Military Order both have lots to prove for me, both in terms of speed, the latter also in terms of competitive experience. Having been against Auguste Rodin all year, I've even started to entertain his chances in such a moderate-looking renewal. I think his best form from last year just about puts him on top of these - but only just. If he improves, he is entitled to beat all of these on what they've achieved thus far.  I guess The Foxes could stay, or Sprewell (not a certain stayer on pedigree) handle the ground and the pace, but I'm confident Passenger will improve past both, and is at least as likely to stay. So it's Passenger for me, with AR and AS for the tricast(!).

I welcome the chance to back Military Order again, never expected 9/2 on the day.

Would have been a good market for Betfair: Name the Favourite.

Anything will do but best result The Foxes followed by Auguste Rodin.

Too many unknowable's to be confident about anything. As a race it is comparable to a top-class handicap and very difficult to price-up. All the arguments have been aired on here so no point in repeating them. Given that we don't have to bet in any race I will keep the stakes on the low side and dutch  two.

AR has won a G1 and with AOB still oozing confidence, he's one. The other is MO who on my figures has the best projected rating even if it is not high enough to be good enough in any other year.

There is a reasonable chance that we could see a long-priced winner who makes huge improvement. But which one though?

Well done Figgis

Probably not the superstar the yard seem to think but still good enough.

just tucking into my humble pie - won quite nicely really. not sure what happened at Newmarket but Little Big bear also ran a stinker then trotted up at York. probably something up with the yard at the time of the Guineas

The Guineas was a joke of race, heavy ground and they went no pace in the early stages and many failed to settle. A horse bred for 12 furlongs was not going to be suited by the way the race was run.

Cheers brandy

Well done figgis, kept faith in your methods, only reason backed it was your opinion, wd winners,

Well done backers of AR.
Won cozily in a race where, despite a moderate gallop, nothing but the the front two had a chance from two out.

White Birch ran a similar race to the Dante but it was very disappointing from The Foxes and Passenger.
Sprewell also ran ok.

Less said about San Antonio the better.

Thought that was a BEER!!!

Thanks roadrunner, glad you won.

Wd figgis.

I’ve spent weeks on the race but just couldn’t come down on a proper bet, with like a few highlighted above just a brutal race to price.

My small spread was between sprewell who I knew wouldn’t handle the going, passenger who I didn’t think would stay, military order who I knew in my head wouldn’t handle the going and believe it not a saver on auguste Rodin who I couldn’t have on my mind but 6.2 was to big to balance the book for a small red.

Anyway glad i never invested in the race but I don’t actually think it was a really poor renewal like I did before the race with 2 nice colts pulling clear.

Wd winners

Well done Auguste Rodin backers.

Military Order last.

A good example of form being temporary and class permanent. Only Group 1 winning horse in the race.

Jun 3, 2023 -- 12:30PM, FELTFAIR wrote:

A good example of form being temporary and class permanent. Only Group 1 winning horse in the race.

What does that even mean?

Brother to a Derby winner finished last.

The brother had won a Class 2 Novice Stakes followed by a listed race on the all weather.

Right thread this time.
Figgis
   wd
    GL

Cheers harry, penzance.

Nothing outstanding but a well up to scratch Derby winner, for me. I know all the form ratings firms will have AR improving, but on times I have him only 1lb higher than his already decent 2yo best. So basically he hasn't really improved from 2 to 3, in my view. He has still only had the six outings so there's no saying that he can't progress again, but personally I would've expected to see some more at this stage. My concern is for how long he can maintain this level throughout the season and unfortunately I don't think he's one I'll be staying with for the rest of the year.