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penzance
27 Jun 22 21:52
Joined:
Date Joined: 26 Feb 04
| Topic/replies: 15,590 | Blogger: penzance's blog
1st real all age clash on Saturday,with 11 so far still
entered.Hope they all go and we get a decent size
field in this for a change.I like Native Trail & Mishriff
in this.Native Trail always gets on top late on @1M
& is a bit unlucky not to be unbeaten to me.Mishriff
bombed LTO but is much better than that & if back
to his York win last season will go very close to me.
The French Derby wnr Vadeni running,Bay Bridge,who
like Stoute's Ulysess, won  10F GP3 event @Sandown
& was then btn in the Prince Of Wales Stks before taking
this aswell as Real World twice rnr/up to Baaeed.Not
forgetting Alenquer who beat the Prince Of Wales Stks wnr,
State Of Rest LTO over in Ireland.A race to look forward to
if they all show.
   GL ALL
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Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk June 29, 2022 1:35 PM BST
Real World matched @ 95 on here
Is he not running........any news?
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk June 29, 2022 1:47 PM BST
Does anyone know where I can check the time of w/d?
Had a biggish bet for me on RW at Hills and I want to make sure he was still down to run when I placed the bet.
Report impossible123 June 29, 2022 1:55 PM BST
Kingscote is on Bay Bridge for Sir Stoute. Nothing from AOB or Moore? I think it's likely Dettori could be on Real World given no representation from Coolmore/AOB.
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk June 29, 2022 1:58 PM BST
Real World is out Imp. Costly for me
Report penzance June 29, 2022 1:59 PM BST
Real World pulled out today by the looks of it.
No Coolmore runnrs either.
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk June 29, 2022 2:01 PM BST
Is there an official w/d time for Real World and where would I find it?
Report impossible123 June 29, 2022 2:27 PM BST
Blind me! That's bad news 'Jumping....'. Non-antepost is tomorrow, I believe. A 7-runner race without AOB.
Report penzance June 29, 2022 2:31 PM BST
The 48 decs are tomorrow.Its A/P,doubt you'll
get your stake back.
   GL
Report impossible123 June 29, 2022 2:38 PM BST
The Exchange used to inform users when a new market would be formed ie non-antepost. Very Unlucky for backers.
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk June 29, 2022 2:39 PM BST
Thought so. The trainer has daid it won't run but they change their minds so the cut off is probably end of today as official w/d
Jeez my luck at the moment
Report impossible123 June 29, 2022 3:12 PM BST
Apparently Real World coughed and scoped badly.
Report A_T June 29, 2022 3:36 PM BST
I like Mishriff  - I don't think Native Trail will stay
Report FOYLESWAR June 29, 2022 5:45 PM BST
think the 2 haggas runners if lining up could be some value alenquer has decent form from last season and may have improved since winning curragh group1 not got a lot to find ,dubai honour progressed into a very smart un last season winning group2s and not beaten far in meydan  group1 1st time up this season rated 120 the same as alenquer and a pound behind bay bridge a big price at around 40s if lining up .
Report brandyontherocks June 29, 2022 7:20 PM BST
The ground could be a real factor for some of these imo.
If it continues to dry out like the forecast says and we have genuinely quick ground I would be against Bay Bridge, the French horse and Alenquer.
Thought Bay Bridge didn't fully extend at Ascot on the quicker ground.
Alenquer's best performances have been on good ground.
To be fair to the French horse he hasn't yet experienced fast ground as is the want over there.
Mishrif needed this run last season.
I am coming down on the side of Native Trail. I am not convinced this is his trip so it will depend on the price.
Report impossible123 June 29, 2022 8:30 PM BST
I cannot have the Gosden charges given their form, jockeys and recent events. I think Alenquer has the form, and is value esp if Vadeni underperforms (or hyped) and Native Trail a non-stayer at this trip.

I'd like to see Vadeni win for Rouget (Almanzor). Horseracing badly needs another Almanzor.
Report brandyontherocks June 29, 2022 8:55 PM BST
He's running at a 20% strike rate ????
Report penzance June 29, 2022 9:13 PM BST
David Egan's got a retainer with Mishriff's ownwer.
No problem with him riding the horse.
Report A_T June 29, 2022 9:55 PM BST
i would hope Gosden has Mishriff ready - he produced Nathaniel to win the Eclipse on seasonal debut
Report unitedbiscuits June 30, 2022 1:33 PM BST
I suppose the trip is the doubt with Native Trail. Fwiw, here is how I would price it

Alanquer 9/1
Bay Bridge 8/1
Lord North 10/1
Mishrif 5/1
Native Trail 5/2
Vadeni 3/1

Looks to be in proportion. For me, no one horse has three times the chance of another. I have Gosden's two about the same chance as Native Trail or Vadeni.
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk June 30, 2022 2:14 PM BST
Interesting stat mention by RP bloke on tinternet other day
Said only 1 horse has won Eclipse in last 20 years w/o having won over 10 furlongs before
I haven't double-checked it though
Could just be not many non 10f horses have run in it
Report penzance June 30, 2022 2:45 PM BST
Refuse To Bend 2004
Giants Causeway won it stepping up from 1M.
Report unclepuncle June 30, 2022 3:05 PM BST
Mishriff the bet for me at 8/1 - hopefully they have him cherry ripe this year.
Report gpz6316 June 30, 2022 10:21 PM BST
I would say native trail maybe a little rotund for this .  I think he's been let down a bit based on his price and his future engagements Sussex and Juddmonte , this maybe a learning curve . I don't rate French form , lord north wont have the pace and is on the slide , mishriff is having a prep for the king george . At 4-1 in a 5 runner race bay bridge is too big odds wise and same for alenquer .  I think this goes to native trail as a pleasant surprise to the yard .
Report .Marksman. July 1, 2022 4:46 PM BST
I'll be laying Vadeni tomorrow.  I've already laid him to lose a 4 lot in the Arc.  If you watch the replay of the Prix Jockey Club, you will see just how well everything worked out for him, right from being drawn in the ideal place (2).  He was able to cruise between leaders (who included Buick who had to work hard from an outer draw to get to the lead).  Then, at halfway Buick pressed on to quickly and Soumillion on Vadeni let them go away from him a little rather than try to chase them.  It turned out he was in the ideal spot and could cruise into the lead in the straight.  Contrast this with the run of Rouget's more fancied other runner, Al Hakeem who must have been 10 lengths behind the leaders turning for home and was beaten just over 6 lengths from a poor draw (11).
(At the end of the coverage Soumillion  was interviewed and the horse that he most enthused over was the Aga's Baiykara who won the fillies group 3 earlier in the day.  Regarding the Arc he said that Vadeni would be a good substitute for Baiykara in the Arc if anything happened to her.  So, at the moment, it looks like Baiykara is the Aga Khan's main hope for the Arc.)
And the opposition in the Eclipse looks so good...
It looks like it could be the best race this year.
Report impossible123 July 1, 2022 7:01 PM BST
Vadeni has a lot of speed, according to the racing manager of his owner. And, at the moment Vadeni will be aimed at the Irish Champion Stakes. As such, I'd lay him for The Arc.

Considering he's only beaten El Bodegon, and a non-stayer in Modern Games in the Prix du Jockey Club he's very short here on the reputation of Rouget (Almanzor) and £50k supplementation. However, I'd back him for the Irish Champion Stakes if he wins tomorrow.
Report unitedbiscuits July 1, 2022 7:21 PM BST
Looks like Native Trail could end up favourite.
Report cosmik debris July 1, 2022 9:42 PM BST
Won by 5l eased down. 6/4 SP
Report impossible123 July 1, 2022 10:48 PM BST
El Bodegon and Modern Games (a non-stayer)? I think the others have more solid form to boot.
Report brandyontherocks July 2, 2022 6:24 AM BST
Where does the pace come from in this race.

All of these won't want it to turn into a 2 furlong sprint but with no confirmed front runner there is the possibility of another falsely run race.
Report Millerracing67 July 2, 2022 1:39 PM BST
Lack of a true pace setter is a concern???
Had a few £££ on Vadani (3.55) think he has the best turn of foot & I don't think faster ground will trouble him, his sire loved it.
A back to his very best Mishriff would be a tough nut to crack, he'll love the ground, concern would be he needed it in this last yr, before romping home at York.
Report FELTFAIR July 2, 2022 2:20 PM BST
Had a shilling on Vadeni.
Report Figgis July 2, 2022 3:25 PM BST
I see nothing in Alenquer's form to say he can beat some of these. Native Trail will go close if running to his best over the longer trip, but in my view he hasn't improved at all at 3 and I wouldn't be surprised if his form takes a dip. I like Bay Bridge and followed him last year after he won at Newbury in a good time. He stepped up significantly this year when winning the Brigadier Gerard Stakes. The way he won he could be even better than the bare form but I only have it as Group 2 class. For me, he should already be a Group 1 winner but Moore was outridden by Crosse in a very slowly run race last time at Royal Ascot. That was a poor Group 1, though. I remember Stoute's 4yos Harbinger and Ulysses really improving on their third starts that season and it would be no surprise to see similar happen here, but I think he's short enough considering his form is more about potential than achievement. I don't really understand the negativity about Vadeni, as the performance was backed up on the clock. I have him 1lb higher than the bare form of Desert Crown's Derby win. I've always believed the 3yo allowance is generous and if he comes here in the same form he won't be easy to beat.

That said, I reckon Mishriff's best form last year puts him a couple of pounds ahead. I know he was a bit disappointing in this last year but, for me, his form stepped up to a new level when he finished second to Adayar. It's complete guesswork if he retains last year's ability, but at this sort of price I have to back him.
Report FELTFAIR July 2, 2022 3:29 PM BST
Added a shilling each way(3 places)Mishriff.
Report .Marksman. July 2, 2022 3:46 PM BST
Soumillon brilliant again.  Frankie used to be his equal but Christophe is on his own now.
Report .Marksman. July 2, 2022 3:48 PM BST
And a real beauty in the red dress leading the horse.
Report impossible123 July 2, 2022 3:52 PM BST
Very well done Rouget and Aga Khan! Apparently Mr Gosden is happy with both his runners. I'd reserve judgement until a few day has past.
Report unitedbiscuits July 2, 2022 3:58 PM BST
Terrific race. Mishrif was unlucky.
Report A_T July 2, 2022 4:12 PM BST
yes Mishriff very unlucky would have won handily with a clear run - proximity of Lord North makes the form questionable. NT didn't really stay IMO
Report penzance July 2, 2022 4:15 PM BST
Btn a Nck & HD,looked like he stayed to me.
Not good enough on the day.
Feltfair
  wd
   GL
Report impossible123 July 2, 2022 4:51 PM BST
Vadeni is a good horse. I do not think he's as good as Almanzor though. Irish Champion Stakes next, I reckoned.
Report Millerracing67 July 2, 2022 4:54 PM BST
Happy to see Vadeni winning, but boy it was a lucky collect, Mishriff an unlucky loser for sure.
Report paulo47 July 2, 2022 5:31 PM BST
Soumillon said Valdeni stumbled 100 yds from the line and became unbalanced .
Report impossible123 July 2, 2022 5:43 PM BST
Rouget has ducked a duel with Baaeed in The Juddemonte. And, I do not blame him post today. Baaeed is a sweet traveller, and when the turbo button is pressed, he'd be gone - no catching him for him.

Just ask Mr Gosden and Palace Pier; Vadeni is no Palace Pier or Almanzor either.
Report brandyontherocks July 2, 2022 7:29 PM BST
Is Almanzor your favourite horse of all time imp?
Report impossible123 July 2, 2022 7:45 PM BST
I do not think so. I think it's because I remember Almanzor as I was more interested in horseracing then. The era of Triptich, In The Grove, Reference Point, Slip Anchor, etc, I cannot recollect too much; tick-tack era not SIS then, I believe.

Almanzor beat some very good horses in Minding, Found and others. Also, he was trained by Rouget (under-rated then but focus and never doubly declare his stars). Also, he was a very good betting prospect (antepost) that delivered every time for me.
Report LoyalHoncho July 4, 2022 7:09 PM BST
Great read Figgis - shame about the man on top!  The horse should have won imo.
Report Figgis July 5, 2022 12:29 PM BST
Yes LH. Not much he could do earlier on, but to continue to go for a non-existent gap, for at least a third time, when Soumillon was opening the door for him with still about 2f to run was poor. Mishriff's price has now shortened for York but I want to see him in the KG.
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