Derby

New London was 2nd fav' with some books to win the Derby
as short as 6/1,if I'm right.He's not running because
Appleby probably knows he won't turn that form around.
If New London would've done that to Changingoftheguard
he'd more than likey be a 4/1 - 9/2 shot.
I could be totally wide of the mark,that to me was a
good performance.
  GL

AOB will send a batallion to ensure a good pace and make it as difficult as possible for Desert Crown. One plus possibly Changingoftheguard (can win given a soft lead) could make the running with Stone Age handily placed just behind.

I think Desert Crown will have to do it the hard way coming from behind to pass Changingoftheguard and Stone Age. I hope no Dancing Brave scenario for Desert Crown.

big news Monday  Charlie Appleby was rocking on about nations pride being supplemented for the derby and he would pick him to ride , given he worked well on Wednesday . I cant see any mention of the work and he doesn't appear to be supplemented

They've got to supplement him on Monday.
If they do that is.

according to "the sun " nations pride impressed in his work and a decision to supplement or not will be made in the next 48hrs

why cant this horse be put in the market to be speculated on ?

Draw, going, final gallops.  All variables and all as yet unknown over and above the speculation about form.  Wide open really.

Appleby confirms Nations Pride to be supplemented for the Cazoo Derby

Has Stone Age been deserted by Moore? He's been drifting the last few days from 4 to 6 here.

why is Nations Pride still not listed in the Derby field?

I believe Monday is when supplementary entries are made

with gzp here walk of stars for me each way a big unit  and wernt fully primed last time according to some got 3/4 of a lenth to find wi united nations so not much between those 2 and its an open looking race.

Is the Derby an open race? The fav is only 15/8, and 2nd fav only 7/2. But, AOB will have another battalion to deploy team tactic. I hope the other jockeys are wised-up to it this time.

I don;t fancy this horse and anyway he is with a stable who rarely need a reason and can withdraw them for fun but I wonder if Eydon is an each way play.  4th in the Guineas but lots against him - stamina a question, improvement would seem to be needed, etc.  40;s on the Sportsbook here and worth a play for a few quid at that price in my opinion.

I don't have any strong views. Gone are the days when Grundy and Mill Reef were household names after their 2yo career. I might back Hoo Ya Mal if it runs. Beaten by 3 Godolphin horses but one was Noble Truth and another Nations Pride so if he improves for the trip, he could sneak a place. Nations Pride by 5 lengths from Hoo Ya Mal? Same connections as Khalifa Sat.

"But, AOB will have another battalion to deploy team tactic. I hope the other jockeys are wised-up to it this time."

Makes not the slightest difference. Coolmore had x8 runners in Authorized`s Derby and couldn`t get close. As a jockey you can only look after yourself and ride your race without concerning yourself with others. Pacemakers maybe but that doesn`t stop the best horse winning.

which one of the Ballydoyles will try the Serpentine?

Down to 11 runners at the 5 days stage. Aiden only has Star of India and Godolphin have Nahanni and Nations Pride. So no team tactics after all. Very surprising. Are they all scared of Desert Crown? I will definitely be on both of Andrew Balding's runners place only.

Scrap my last post! There are 2 lines of runners on sportsbook with second fav on a different line from the fav!

Aiden still has enough to ruin the race unless something gets away from them early.

I was wondering what happened to Stone Age and Changingogtheguard for AOB. Also, it's so unlike AOB and Coolmore not to be multi-represented to maximise chance of victory here.

The Queen will not attend
Probably dosent want to be upsurped by
Desert CROWN

Why would AOB ruin the race?

He don't ruin the race,he's won it numerous times.
The blokes an excellent trainer.

I know it is called race riding but we know that 4 of his 5 are there to get in the way of the rest of the field and one is lined up to win.

Were Serpentine, Anthony Van **** and Wings of Eagles the ones to be "lined up"?

think this will be one of those years when you lay Moore's ride and back the other Coolmore runners

So true FeltFair.
So the other 4 jockeys are told to get in the way of all the horses but whilst doing that make sure that our other horse isn't interfered with at all.

My immediate question too brandy.

The point is that all the jockeys riding for the same yard know what the team tactics are but the riders for other yards don't. As it happens, Aiden is down to three runners and Godolphin two.

3 for Godolphin

Team tactics are a load of codswallop.

In the past, there have been rare blatant examples of "team tactics" by Ballydoyle. (There was one at Ascot which enraged Sheikh Mohammed so much that AOB and the Sheikh avoided each other and boycotted each others bloodlines for a decade.
But, nowadays, all we get from AOB is several horses in classics, with some jockeys ordered to go off in front, some to stay midfield and others to be held up.  By doing this, all bases will be covered and there is bound to be one horse who goes the correct pace even, if it is an outsider.  This is how Serpentine and Wings of Eagles were able to win, despite not being the best in the field.

Godolphin ran 3 in last years Derby,was that team tactics.
No it was'nt.
Obrien runs horses in it to win.It's not always the obvious
one.His horses run,they're not wrapped up in cotton wool.

Serpentine won by 6 lengths in a very fast time.So who was the best horse in the field?

Serpentine's time appeared fast due to the race being run a month later than usual on really quick ground.  The time was actually slower than Love ran in the Oaks on the same day.  Serpentine ran 5 more times and failed to make the first 3 in any of these runs.
What I think happened in this race is that, after the leaders had gone too fast in The Oaks playing into Love's hands,  all the jockeys in the Derby, with the exception of Emmet McNamara (Serpentine) and Marquand, sat back off the pace, hoping it would collapse.  But the pace stood up and the order of the runners hardly changed throughout the race.
I would rate Kameko, Pyledriver and Mogul (who subsequently won two Group 1 races as better horses than Serpentine.

Serpentine was pants! He was gifted the Epsom Derby because of a massive injudicious riding by jockeys on fancy horses too preoccupied with watching one another, and forgetting there was an AOB horse at the front ie they left their riding mind in the changing room!

So explain Wings Of Eagles was that another not the best in the field?

Ruler of the world
Wings of Eagles
Anthony Van D yck
Serpentine

Aiden O Brien's recent derby winners only won 2 races between them after winning the Great race.

Eydon is out according to Varian on twitter.

I guessed that when I looked at the market just now.  Don;t know why but I greened up on it for small last night. 
Psychic?

sageform   29 May 22    16:37
I know it is called race riding but we know that 4 of his 5 are there to get in the way of the rest of the field and one is lined up to win.

No we don;t know that.  You may believe it or, more likely, just want to keep saying it.

I,m not so keen on this nations pride after being supplemented and neither is the market . It looks like a one horse race betting wise , but , I'm persisting with walk of stars . Given the veins of information that bleed down to the bookies . Nothing has come forward , however , something might have and their keeping the powder dry till max liquidity on the market . Expect a deluge of cash on walk of stars on the day .

I think the favourite is potentially very good.  If Stoute was being straightforward in telling us how hard it was to get him to York to even run and how surprised he was at the horse's manner of victory, and we have no reason to disbelieve the great man, might we have a very, very good horse in our sights come Saturday?

walk of stars and desert crown ran on the the same day last year, at Nottingham, same distance, desert crown won in 1.47.26 .walk of stars 1.49.31, desert crown about 2 seconds quicker, if you say 5L a second, he would have won 10l, thats a lot for any horse to turn around.

Wings of Eagles only ran one race after his Derby win and his close third in the Irish Derby was in all probability with a fracture in his leg . If anyone wants to watch the argy bargy he got into in the Derby and still won its self evident in the replays , just focus on his pink cap , last as they enter the straight .My favourite Derby .

walk of stars hangs to the right so i'm completely discounting it unless they come up the stands side - which is not impossible if they start watering

already backed walk of stars and have added nahhanni  similar profile to last years winner and has winning  course form progressive and last years winning jock up 25s each way bigger on here could be a bit of value in an open looking derby.

I concur nahanni is under-rated , originally I dismissed this horse as the bunch finish wasn't inspiring , he did beat the aob Lingfield winner though , is lightly raced .... these Appleby horses are gonna come on a good few pounds on Saturday aob,s wont imo . Had a tickle thanks for bringing him back into my thoughts I dismissed him too lightly , best of luck

i've got some on nahanni - guaranteed stayer already won over 12f but sharp enough to return to 10f and win again

have stone age at nice prices in the book, prob regret not laying back my stack while he was stupidly short!  anyway adding some colour to the book at big prices, its masekela for me; hasn't done enough to prove he's no good "YET". Two year old form is not bad...... there are worse Hail Marys.

The thing that always sticks in my mind about the derby is you,ve got to stay . I think in walk of stars and nahanni I've backed two stayers from the top yard whom are entitled to improve as their lightly raced and are great prices . I  would back the favourite if my life depended upon it  , but , theirs no value/ reward and am satisfied I'm backing two horses whose chances are better than the odds offered . best of luck

I like Changingoftheguard - it's going to be slow ground and he has guaranteed stamina. Also green on Nahanni and Westover.

Has there been any rain overnight?

Figgis your thoughts?

A_T, I have Desert Crown's Dante win good enough to take an average Derby, even without any improvement. This year's Derby doesn't appear to contain anything above that, but I thought that last year and Adayar proved to be well above an average winner. However, by definition above average winners don't come around every year so I reckon DC will probably be good enough. I can see why many think he's a short price and are looking to oppose him, but for me he's more like an even money chance so he's my bet.

Agreed about Desert Crown, but as we saw in the oaks yesterday, you win nothing without a bit of luck.

I agree entirely with you Figgis, except possibly that I might have DC at 2.5 but that's just a quibble. He is still value at his current price of 3.5 but as the Oaks showed, as with Dancing Brave, you do need luck in running. But I have had a maximum bet with a saver on Stone Age.

Been trading since before the Vertem Futurity in October and fortunately everything is green and anything will do but in order of preference Stone Age, Desert Crown, Changingtheguard, Star Of India and then the rest.

Desert Crown hung on to the golden highway down the middle of the track at York and, once on it, was able to sprint clear.  If he had stayed where he was he wouldn't have won anything like as easily (but would still have won).
If you stopped Nations Pride's races with 2f to go you wouldn't have been absolutely sure that he was going to win, but at the line he was well on top.  It looks to me that, with another 2f in the Derby, Nations Pride is going to be even better.  So I think Nations Pride is the best bet.

To have an unbeaten Derby winner would be good for racing as we all want a superstar. I think the fav has the best turn of foot which will stand it in good stead especially in a big field. At the price though he's not for me. An 11/1 winner of it's maiden with the likes of Mr Big Stuff in third at 100/1 being stuffed in the earlier handicap today and a visually impressive win in the Dante where I think most people would agree wasn't the strongest heat. Positives for the fav, good draw, seems to have a very good temperement and looks to have a fine turn of foot. Negatives not guaranteed to stay, how will jockey cope with it all and the form is pretty average. I'm taking one at a working mans price with Star of India Each Way. Love the way this horse sticks his neck out and will love the trip if it gets into the a slog.

A tricky renewal imo. Desert crown has at least run to a figure I think is good enough to win. For me though I do have some slight stamina doubts with him, although I think he is the correct favourite. I’m not with the few that make him 6/4 though but all about opinions valid and I’d have him at around 9/4.

Stone Age is another I have slight stamina doubts about but think he will run well here. 4/1 really is extremely short though. He make no appeal for at those odds. I suspect they will hold him up today so it will be interesting to see how he settles as he has raced prominently his whole career. If moore does gun him from the gate it is going to be an extremely interesting race but think they will try and take a lead.

Nations pride 3rd in the betting surely is the price he is on the back of the trainer. I have him with a lot to find to get involved never mind win. I’ve struggled to put a mark on him but 7/1 on here is not good.

The one I’m playing is changingoftheguard. I like the head gear angle for this lazy type and if he can get near the front I think he will stay well and I don’t have him with a lot to find and have him joint top rated with desert crown. You’d have to argue about the going but I have a feeling it isn’t on top, as such so should be fine for him. I think he’s ok at 12.5

Nahanni is slightly overlooked imo, he got caught up in a slowly run race last time but stuck it out well and was surrounded by nice types. He would have a lot to find but can see him getting in the 5 although softer going may have suited more. He’s tough

I’m having a little on westover he’s the most underrated runner and at around 33 that’s ok for me. His form isn’t great like a lot of runners but he does have upside although I’m not a lover of the rider.

Piz badile is the one that has wrangled me most. I can see why he comes fresh here as he puts plenty in to his races. He is a game type but I haven’t been able to give him much rope from the mark I have him. I’ll be disappointed if he wins as I haven’t wanted to overlook him, as I just like him. I think he’ll run well.

Royal patronage is slightly underrated at his odds, I’d have him nearer to 25 so 46 on here isn’t bad to save the book. He is a similar type to Piz badile so you wouldn’t think he’d be good enough but a saver

All the best

Lovely ride from kingscote. If only that Hornsby could ride. Wd lads good horse

Superb Superb performance.

good call Figgis and Sandown

a brilliant winner - just strolled when he hit the front the other are useless

Westover so unlucky.

Would have won in my opinion.

westover should have been clear second but DC won with a lot in hand IMO

Sry metro just can't agree with you.  Hornby is one of the most trouble-finding of the top class jockeys around.  Several times I;ve backed him and now steer well clear.  The winner virtually pulled up about thirty yards out making the runner up look better than it is. Imo.

Cheers A_T.

I hope both go to the Irish derby now. You have to be impressed by how well the winner travelled and the turn of foot he showed. The Curragh will suit Westover better but think the best horse won on the day.

well done to the second's connections as well. A mighty run.

And Westover had the option of following him through , but elected to stay inside which looked good for 50 yds but turned into a disaster . Best jockey won , not absolutely certain re the best horse ,as winner had plenty left , but its arguable .

Westover seemed unlucky not to finish 2nd. However, I do not see him turning the table against Desert Crown over 12f, given the same conditions. I think Westover looked good running past beaten horses; the pace was decent, and the fav was the only one that travelled best throughout just behind the pacesetters.

Dancing Brave was unlucky, but Westover is certainly no Dancing Brave. Westover was unlucky but I cannot see him beating Desert Crown unless in a horse-box. I do not think there'll be a rematch at The Curragh on 25th June either; Westover may have to contend with running against another battalion of AOB.

Desert crown is very decent possibly on the same par as Golden Horn. Will he go to The Arc? I hope he does as he's not owned by Coolmore.

well done to the winners ! I was well impressed with westover myself 123 and would imagine he,d turn that form around . I reckon they,ll give dc a break and go for the king george . Whilst I think westover will go to the irish derby and then lock horns at ascot .

I just don;t understand this westover sentiment.  I think the winner cruised and could have won by further so don;t see where all this certainty is coming from that westover will beat it if they meet again, which seems likely.
(jockey said colt was denied a clear run).  Yeah - by his jockey.  Hornby gave it a poor ride.

well each to their own honcho , I have no axe to grind , just think he will

Thought the fireworks were a very odd decision.

I would prefer Desert Crown if they ran it again as he has more speed than Westover who had a better position through the race than Hoo Ya Mal but still managed to finish behind him due to lack of pace (and then interference) at the crucial point in the race. What ever, the first three were a very long way clear of the rest so it was probably a good Derby. Masakela had a very conservative ride from a jockey who didn't know him so might improve 5 lengths on that.

Yes, brandyontherocks,the fireworks was bizarre.  We'll never know how many horses were spooked by this and didn't give their running.  Why not have fireworks after the races have been completed?
If Westover had had a clear run it would have been an interesting race and I think he would have pressed Desert Crown all the way to the line, but I can't see how people can have any conviction that he would have actually got past Desert Crown, who could have found more when challenged.
Michael Stoute was evidently telling the truth when he said his horse was barely ready for the Dante, because he looked a much better horse in the Derby and ran straight to the line when asked to quicken.

Jun 4, 2022 -- 3:49PM, LoyalHoncho wrote:

I just don;t understand this westover sentiment.

Hi LoyalHoncho, Westovers mph was badly affected, and all of that in the final 3 furlong, he was 2 lengths behind Desert turning the corner both travelling well, his run was blocked, he then applied the brakes to move out he was then 4-5 lengths behind and managed to close down the distance to 2 3/4 lengths. Amazing considering the short amount of time available within final 2 fulrlong.

reviewed the race and no way was westover ever going to beat DC - the Stoute horse was on the bridle 2f out and hornby was pushing

and I backed westover

the best derby winner since golden horn

I bet Dessert relieved in many ways, what we can say for sure is that Desert and Westover had much more to give, so possibly underrated on ratings and or it was a poor Derby?

How the second horse got through the gap that westover somehow couldn;t is telling for me, and he came from behind westover to do so. Hornby was boxed in on the rail and suffered but Probert took the same gap he could have?!

I believe if Westover had led Desert Crown till the furlong marker the latter would still have passed him and won. I also believe Desert Crown got to the front on sufferance.

Let's hope Westover after the Irish Derby go to The Arc and do battle with Desert Crown and Emily Upjohn - his likely protagonists.

no honcho Westover lost momentum having been squeezed out by stone age to the right  then switched left and had the ground taken by Hoo ya mal whom hadn't been checked and came from behind with the momentum that Westover lost in the checking to right . Westover is a difficult horse , sweated profusely at the start , but , showed the engine is the best . d.c has a great mind and trainer , the difference brings them close imo . I  think Westover will win the Irish derby . I wouldn't go to the king George with him , id go Niel , arc and bc turf . I'd go eclipse , king George and bc turf with d.c . ooh what we might do if we were billionaires !

In evaluating the performance of Westover, we can do no worse than use the rule for interference used by the stewards.

First, did interference take place? The answer must be yes, no question. Second, was the result affected? Looking at the sectional times published by Racing TV, it appears that Westover lost around 0.5 sec or  3L in the crucial 3rd last furlong, and considering that he lost out on second place by 0.03 secs it would be reasonable to argue beyond reasonable doubt that he would have finished second.

But did the interference cost him first place? He finished 0.45 secs behind DC the same amount that he got stopped, so at first glance there is an argument that he would have run DC close.Is that sufficient to argue that but for the interference he would have won? Surely not, at least not beyond reasonable doubt. The last furlong sectional for DC clearly shows that DC slowed in the last furlong with the race clearly won. It is not difficult to argue that , if challenged, DC would have pulled out more, a lot more, as he looked to have been slightly eased. Even on the lesser standard of balance of probabilities, it seems unlikely that would have been the case.

Compare and contrast with the Oaks result where it is certainly possible to make the case that EU would have won on the balance of probabilities given the absence of interference in running, although it might not be possible make the case that she would definitely have won, i.e beyond reasonable doubt. The RPR for DC is 124 vs 120 for WO, whereas both 1st and 2nd in the Oaks have been rated at 117

Thank goodness theory never won a horse race.

Thanks gpz6316.  Great post.  Good luck to westover.  For me unlucky horses tend to stay that way.  And, for what it is worth, for me whilst ( in the split second that ) Hornby fumed and dithered Probert took the bull by the horns and made the gap that Hornby could have.
All in the past now though and the question for me is how good could D.C. go on to be?

Sandown, your analysis using balance of probabilities is interesting. If I was one of the jurors (in court) or a steward I'd have come to the same conclusion ie Desert Crown would have won the Epsom Derby even if Westover had had a clear run or gone head-to-head with Desert Crown; Desert Crown was toying with his opponents at Epsom!

As for Emily Upjohn (EU) Tuesday definitely had had a much easier and straightforward passage; I was pleasantly surprised EU did not sustain any injury post the slip at the start. EU just got denied; a heroic effort nevertheless. Next encounter between the two over 12f, my money will be on EU given similar ground and weight.

I,ll agree to disagree honcho and respect your opinion .

@impossible.
You say your money would be on Emily.
But surely if they did meet again you would have a price in mind. What if they were 4/7 and 9/4. Who would you back then?

Or would you back her at any price?

At 4/7 I'd include Emily Upjohn in doubles and accas - no single.

know its a bit late in the day, went to the epsom derby and got to the race track 15 minutes before race went off, walked from the train station up that hill and wasnt even sure i would get there in time, put my bet on with anthony and john brothers, 20 win with the tote then put on 20 with aforementioned bookies, waited few minutes, checked my pockets and realized should put more on and then put on another 180 on, didnt check any form and didnt even know who else was running in the race, fancied desert crown as far back as the dante win, as i have learnt from posters on here, the derby usually only has one or two very good horses at best, felt a bit flat after the win, when i realized could of been betting 20k on that winner, if things had worked out differently for me that year.

14 declared with the biggies remaining. No draw as yet.

Draws: Auguste Rodin (10)
       San Antonio (12) Adelaide (14)
       Arrest (13)
       Military Order (9)
       Passenger (7)

AOB has two heading the market eg City Of Troy (20/1) and Diego Velazquez (14/1). The former won with authority over 7f at The Curragh, and did his best work in the final furlong; Moore had difficulty pulling him up. The latter has yet to race, and by Frankel; possibly been burning up the gallops or another talking horse.