Horse Antepost
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10 Apr 22
18:27
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05 Oct 11
Ahead of Newmarket watched Aldous Huxley win at Kempton. I thought he was quite impressive, but in all likelihood he didn't beat much. Anyone read anything about him? Seems a very strange name for a Godolphin horse. Did Magnier name it for them?
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Looks a lovely type and well bred. Caught a fast run maiden at kempton. The rider seemed intent on giving him a race so will be interesting to see him back up so quickly. Time was decent as well. If going on from this and handling turf, which he should, it will be interesting to follow his progress. He bumps into another nice staying type tomorrow. So we will know more then.
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I've just watched Aldous Huxley and New London win their races and they seem very different types, although both are by Dubawi. Aldous Huxley has the run style of an American dirt horse. He just made one relentless gallop throughout the race and relied on his stamina lasting out for the 1m2f trip. His stride seemed efficient and economical and never looked in any danger. I wasn't surprised to see he has a USA pedigree on the dam side.
New London won his Newmarket race on soft going and he needed the full 1m2f to be effective. He sheltered from a headwind which suggests that 1m2f will be the bare minimum for him and his Derby entry suggests that he will come into his own at 1m4f+. He had a higher knee action than the horse who followed him home that day, so softish ground could be a requirement. His dam sire is the German bred Manduro, so this is probably where the soft ground preference comes from. I'm looking forward to an interesting race tomorrow and the going could be the deciding factor. |
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Marksman why are you already coming to the conclusion about the knee action for new London? I thought he won despite the going and didn’t show much knee at all.
Also I don’t get the comments in regards aldous Huxley in regards to dirt? He is running on synthetic and an American dirt horse how do you substantiate the differential? You will need to educate me on these theories I’m afraid as don’t get the logic here |
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Just watching the slo-mo as they crossed the line at Newmarket, New London's front leg got up to parallel to the ground. As the next went passed the line, it's leg didn't quite get as high.
The polytrack is really a synthetic turf, which resembles Good or Good to Firm going. A horse who acts on this should act on Good going, but not necessarily soft. But if you watch horses doing exercise on dirt tracks in America you will see how they run evenly throughout and aren't asked to quicken. Their stride pattern is fast but not particularly long. On American dirt, there is little advantage, if any in being held up, as horses will tend to lose their action when asked to accelerate due to not being able to grab the ground with their front legs. Ability to act on dirt is mostly inherited and but can also be taught to an extent. I've noticed that 2yo tend to adapt from turf to dirt more easily than older horses who have, presumably, become set in their ways. It is just my guess, but I think Aldous Huxley is bred for pure dirt. |
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I still don’t understand what your talking about, as he has a turf pedigree. Basically his pedigree is from a US turf pedigree as both blood lines are renowned for producing turf horses and not dirt horses.
Also don’t get your understanding of dirt racing considering how dirt racing is run, especially in regards being held up, it’s all dependent on how the tracks and races are being run after all. Anyway we will find out tomorrow I have struggled to take in what your talking about tbh. |
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Well that idea didn't last very long. Despite the late market support he was effectively trounced by the winner. As soon as the winner got on terms, it seemed that Dettori just accepted the situation, which isn't the greatest sign. The winner looked to have much more substance, and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he was at least Grade 3 class at 10f. Despite looking strong at the finish today his full brother showed very little when tried over further. The quotes for the Derby look much too short - Bet Victor 8/1?
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I’d say 3 nice horses. The winner looks a type to keep on improving, certainly improved for better going today.
Not sure any world beaters, all entitled to improve however. Huxley got a more educational ride today, he did race keenly and paid late without being knocked about. Both could end up in something like the Hampton court stakes. With both we will know more next time, I’d like to see Huxley after another month having been asked plenty on debut but I wouldn’t be disappointed with either and both have a future in their grade. 8/1 for derby makes no appeal. I’d say the winner will end up in France before long, we will see. |
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Winner also 8/1 favourite for the St Leger??
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Harry, as I see it, it is harder for a horse to accelerate off a slow pace on dirt than it is on turf. When you see deep closers in dirt races, these are nearly always due to the leaders going too fast. However, you frequently see horses close from the back in turf races even when the pace is moderate, because some horses simply have the ability to accelerate on turf. Turf is a natural surface for horses to run on and they propel themselves forward with their hind legs. Running on dirt is generally not natural for horses, due to having to use a combination of using front and back legs to deliver power. This is why it is crucial in US dirt races to get horses to switch their leads at the right time in dirt races (because it is their front legs that get tired).
What I was trying to say is that extreme hold up horses, generally, can only win in dirt races if the leaders go too fast. If you watch American dirt races you will tend to see horses stretched out from early in the race as all the jocks try to go the optimum pace. In American turf races they will usually be more bunched up off a slower pace, because some horses will be able to accelerate off the firm turf whether the pace is quick or slow. I know that everyone has different opinions but I've just tried to clarify what I said above. |
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Is there a declaration stage today? Market suspended.
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Gosden colt Magisterial good winner today at Leicester giving the field 7lbs. By Frankel and closely related to Minding - a guaranteed stayer.
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Luxembourg could be a shortie if the principals duck this race. AOB might not even run a battalion after today; a couple of pacesetters perhaps, but not mob-handed.
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Im wundering if that effort was his peak performance
Looked super fit in the paddock Not much improvement fitness wise i suspect  |
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doens't look a guaranteed stayer to me - wasn't closing at the finish
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Luxembourg looks a terrible price now. Like many others, I was big on Australia's Derby chance after his Guineas third, but, in my view, Luxembourg's run was some way short of that. I don't buy the theory that he'll improve much next time. It's not impossible that he could win a Derby with the form he's just shown, but it'll have to be a very weak renewal of the race. I'll be looking elsewhere.
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Luxembourg looks to me a likely non-stayer - he wasn't closing at the finish.
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Ran a great trial imo in the circumstances.
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Even though his pedigree says not, im quite surprised native trail isn’t even considered for the derby, looks a stayer to me. He’ll definitely get 1m2f imo
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Reach For The Moon is out of the Derby. So cancel any relevant bets/lays while the market is suspended.
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Didn't take too long for the New London bubble to burst.
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With the benefit of hindsight - all things being equal - New London just managed to beat a horse that was thrashed by Westover (just beaten by Cash); Cash is 20/1 for this. Thus, Westover would have thrashed New London. But, New London was 2nd fav (7/1 I think) to Luxembourg. How absurd was that? Maybe the kudos of Appleby/Godolphin have been exaggerated because of Native Trail and Coroebus.
Is Changingoftheguard (10/1) a serious contender for this? Also, I do not think Buick (New London) rode to his best in the Chester Vase. |
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I was impressed by Changingoftheguard - guaranteed stayer and I would prefer him over Luxembourg. Ground was soft though which he might not get at Epsom.
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Aidan sending his B team out and doing the business. Do you think Moore will choose the winner today over the Derby Favourite? Methinks not.
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Moore's not the best judge in picking
Derby rides. |
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I missed a trick today. George Van Opel's birthday today. It was obvious what was going to happen today. Changingoftheguard will hopefully make a good pacemaker.
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Lingfield and/or York look likely to have a bigger bearing on the Derby than anything seen so far, at least you'd hope so.
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What are you looking out for there?
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How many pounds has the derby favourite got to find Figgis? 13lbs?
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What are you looking out for there?
An alternative to a verbal rimming of anything from Coolmore  |
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I suggest you get your calculator and slide rule and send them back to Dixons. Obviously faulty as the norm.
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Whereas it looks like you are hanging on to the crystal ball where you saw Luxembourg gliding past them all in the Guineas. Still, with your excitement over all things Coolmore you might've just been a bit premature
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Gave you a lay in a 3 horse race spud with a horse you thought was 13lbs clear. Told you where the best place was from the stalls and won on the race. A few more positives than your whole heap of negatives. Tenebrism ffs and you think I have a Ballydoyle allegiance., would not have stayed the trip on Concorde.
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Please tell what you are backing for the Derby so I can lay the crap out of it.
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Gave you a lay in a 3 horse race
it may be that NT is by far the best of them but at 6/4 and by Oasis Dream I'm not sure that represents great value. Would I lay him? Certainly not. So,a bull**** as well as a jerkoff. Goodnight |
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I didn't lay him and god knows what you are talking about. Laying a horse in a 3 runner field is not my game novice. Said he would be rolling around in the dip on fast ground and his sire had not produced a top class miler. All correct and he didn't win. You made him out as one of the best 5 horses on time you had seen. God knows how you came to that conclusion. Came out with utter bollocks about Tenebrism as well. Do you ever go racing and see things in the flesh? You are clueless. Please tell me your Derby selection I'm dying to hear it and maybe I would have a bit more time for you if you ever selected a winner.
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13lbs ffs. A near fack!ng stone difference in a classic. Tells me everything about your credibility and total lack of racing knowledge. I will be at York next week seeing things with my own eyes. Why don't you come and meet up with me and I can show you the ropes. This is a genuine offer as I want you to get better.
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iggis
Date Joined: 28 Sep 04 Add contact | Send message 12 Apr 22 23:29Joined: 28 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 8,801 | Blogger: Figgis's blog Native Trail might've regressed since last year and Coroebus could improve, but as things stood at the end of last season I had Coroebus a good 13lbs lower than his stablemate. NT may only need to repeat last year's best to win the Guineas. Coroebus looks more of a Derby type to me but would need to improve again before I'd consider him a likely winner. |
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Derby hope ffs. Did you see the Autumn stakes. Incredible.
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Do you think Moore will choose the winner today over the Derby Favourite? Methinks not.
has Moore ever picked the wrong one? |