2022 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

I'm amazed the jockey Rossa Ryan and connections of the affected horse had not lodged a civil claim for financial loss against Soumillon derived from his gross "professional" misconduct on the track. I think for a senior jockey to perpetrate such a "dangerous" behaviour regardless of his remorse after should have been handed at least a 6-month ban and a possible re-application of his riding licence forthwith.

Very lucky horse and jockey were ok.

Been there since lunch time.

Looks a shocking Arc.
Fav 3rd in Guineas and won 2 poxy Irish group races.
2nd fav won some pretty moderate races.
Why isn’t it targeted by more trainers and owners?
Is it just the prospect of heavy ground?

It's been targeted by plenty of trainers, horses were balloted yesterday.

Gibberish, there is no way you can combine an ante post and day of race market, 2 completely seperate entities.

going report this morning has it faster than yesterday - seems strange after all the rain

6.8 Soft - Good to soft in places

That’s good news AT strange though after all the rain over night

I've just checked France Galop and they have it an hour ago at 3.9 Very Soft.. last year Arc day was 4.1, so not far off that.  Some rain forecast tonight..

Totally agree with David Redvers, Soumillon should have been immediately stood down.  Jockeys here are getting sent home if they test positive on that saliva thingy, deemed not fit to ride..  yet he can carry on as if nothing's happened..

Which is more reliable, the going stick [6.8] or penetrometer [3.9].. ?  I'm not sure to be honest..

I'm reading on the RP that only France Galop can remove a jockey once declared - I find it hard to believe the Aga Khan would want him on his horses this weekend - he must already be in the last chance saloon after the business with Andre Fabre

Adelaide with the penetrometer is it the higher the figure the softer it is?

The lower the softer.

AT.. well, with the penetrometer it's the higher figure actually that's softer..  what is good going to us, in France is usually around 3.3.. which is usually described by them as ''good to soft''..

The Saturday card last year had the same penetrometer reading.. 3.9 and if you look back at any of those races you can see it's really quite soft..

Last year's Arc was 4.1 Collant - which is Sticky.. ''Holding'' to us..

Talking of Soumillon, I watch a lot of French races and all this season I've felt he's been acting quite oddly in relation to other riders who he deems inferior, especially with the increasing number of lady jockeys now, there are lots of them and on occasions he seems to give side glances and probably words too..

The message I've got is one of.. ''keep out of my way, or else''..

He sounds sincere in his apologies but I feel this is something that's been waiting to happen, but I never imagined it would go to this extreme... and of course there was the Eclipse incident, different but it gives the impression he thinks he's the only one there..

Something that might have happened at old Lewes in the 1950's, I can imagine.. heavily cambered track, I've walked the entire course, about 2 miles, kind of an oval horseshoe with a valley in between.  Expect all sorts of shenanigans went on far side, elbowing etc..

Well I've just backed Mendocino again to finish in the first 10..  but I'll go with 'kincsem's impressive finishing order listed earlier.

I'm off now to watch the first at Mulheim, so I'll let you chat amongst yourselves about ratings etc..  GL all with your ap bets or whatever..

first race over 1m7f about 13 seconds slower than standard

Very Elegant nowhere at Longchamp today

race 15 seconds slower than standard

Has Westover worn a red hood to post previously ?

I think The Aga Khan ought to dispense with his service immediately. Who'd want to be associated with a rider who'd do such harm to another rider? It was a very selfish act!

Imagine he winning on his Arc ride tomorrow. There will be a lot of heckling and boos (rightly so too), and the French Horseracing Authority could be bringing the game into disrepute for not standing him down immediately. A drug user will be stood down immediately, why not a rider who'd be prepared to possibly "hurt" another in a race?

It beggars belief he's allowed to ride in The Arc after such a deliberate and despicable behaviour!

Gibberish
BF have played hell with ante-post markets but the no. of balloted horses seems to be on the increase
and I imagine a lot of people have seen green books turn red in the weaker markets that prevail now.
Marksman keeps some records, I believe, but my feeling is that the GN has been seeing more balloted
horses.

The GN laying rules have been applied to some golf tournaments (which are quite strong markets). Meanwhile
some bookies reserve the right to apply R4 on golf, which was unheard of except in the Tiger days.

I used to think BF had no choice but this is clearly untrue. For example, the golden boot in the football world cup;
I asked for months whether it was NRNB or "all in". I had two different answers and they still wouldn't put it in the rules
until I asked for my money back. The top scorer in the Premier League was always "all in, no voids".

In my opinion it would be best for BF, for market strength and for punters if we just went to the Aussie rules
for horse races i.e. balloted = a loser. I'm pretty sure the betting shops have been collecting these "winners"
as freebies for ever.

Well the eve of the big race is here and the field , draw and going is settled . I have backed onesto , top form , lots of stamina , lightly raced , a summer break and a great come-back when not fancied at 11-1 . I also like the draw as i think the winner will come with its winning run towards the middle of the track away from the poached inside ground . lots to like imo at 12-1  , best of luck with your bets .

Yes I think it's got a great chance. Think the Irish champion front two will fight out the finish again.

Why do you think the inside rail will be poached? Its only the 3rd race of the day!

are you suggesting they,ll be fresh ground in the finishing straight brandy ?

Clerk of the course Charles de Cordon said on Thursday: “The ground could get to very soft by Sunday, provided the forecast of 6-10mm of rain on Saturday proves accurate.”

De Cordon emphasised the horses competing on Sunday would be running on fresh ground that has not been used since the summer.

He said: “On Sunday the rail will be at its innermost position of zero metres – the last time this racing line was used was July 14 – and there will be a five-metre cutaway rail for the last 400 metres.

generally i associate fresh ground with the running rail moved in around the course , but , not in the finishing straight . It gives the horses on the inside more chance then , those in the middle will be on the poached and those that go for the outer middle better ground , but , not as good as the inside . they will be able to carry momentum though and the inside may have to fight for position and race throughout . I prefer them to run from the outside towards the inner it gets the horse to really open up , whereas the fence dweller is shortened up as challengers press him to the fence  .

With 20 runners, soft ground and 6.0 the field, the race resembles a handicap now. The draw will play a part. Looking at previous races run on soft/heavy ground especially with a large field, stamina will be more important than speed. Many have good enough chances to win although I am confident that  Luxembourg has the potential to be a better horse than most in this race. But luck in running will play its part.

Therefore, I have taken the view that the best strategy is to play the race by backing several horses to win and a few to save. My main winner is Luxembourg. Other winners are  Onesto,Torquator Tasso, Westover, Do Deuce. Savers are Alpinista,Vadeni, Mostahadaf, Al Hakeem. Rest are losers.

Most of the earlier races today were over long trips with slow early paces leading to unreliable time guides, but using the Prix Dollar as a yardstick the ground was soft but not quite as soft as last year on Arc day when Torquator Tasso won. I'd just call it soft and no way bordering heavy. There's a decent chance that it'll be a touch quicker tomorrow, as it often is with the fresh ground reserved. Nevertheless it's still going to be soft ground and therefore, even in a big field, the draw and luck in running ought to be less of a factor. The race usually opens up much more on soft ground, rather than the bunching and sprint finish we often see on firmer.

Thanks Pete - that's interesting stuff about sports I know nothing
about like golf as regards balloting out - thanks mate

I'm green on Onesto, Luxembourg, Westover, Mishriff and Mostahdaf. The most likely winner is Onesto IMO. The last two would be huge winners for me. Red on everything else.

As Figgis said maybe the ground is not too bad as the 8f and 10f G2 times were not so slow as the earlier longer races.

going stick report today: 6.4 Soft - Good to soft in places

last year it was 5.1 (the lower the figure the softer)

Todays race really is a handicapping test for a form student. They are due a little rain today so hopefully that should mean nice soft rather than glue/holding.

This years race really has been hard to come down on one solid, looking a very closed match field of imo quite exposed runners. Ok so you have a lurker in al hakeem who could step up but he’d need to step up markedly and I don’t see it. So basically we have a lot of exposed types who have shown us there hand imo.

I’ll start with Luxembourg the favourite. I’ve never really liked him until his last couple of starts, more to do with his head carriage under pressure, I get the impression he is saving things for himself or idling. However his last 2 races just showed me he isn’t ungenuine and I quite liked his win in the Irish champion stakes.

Looking at the Irish champion race, much has been said about the pace being good and the time slow. I had a different view myself. I though what we had was a slow pace but a leader who was out on an uncontested lead whom the others pretty much ignored leading to a bunched finish because of the 2 different races being run, thus leading to a slow time. I could be wrong of course but that was my take.

What I did like with Luxembourg that day was the French colt raced him hard but he did bury him in the furlong after a decent duel. The French colt onesto really looked at his peak that day and he’ll be a tough colt to back up here. He isn’t for me onesto.

Vadeni who also ran, was bitterly disappointing on the day maybe not suited by the pace which if you took the leader out was moderate/even imo.
However I honestly think they used that race as a prep for this and out of all the 3 year olds this year he has looked the most talented imo bar the stoute colt. He’d have to step forward but I don’t the ground issue for him as the French derby was run on softer surface. The question remains with the 3 year olds is are they that good. I think they are a fair bunch but nothing outstanding. He is winner in my book Vadeni but not much

Luxembourg for me might love this trip and may just step forward, Vadeni also looks to have at least an equal chance, something with Luxembourg doesn’t ring true and being as he isn’t a flashy colt, do not expect the favourite to give you the money for free, as he likes to save a bit for himself but I’ve always thought he wanted soft going so he has his chance. The only time he was beaten was in a big field when stumbling just to Chuck another grenade in. Just a win saver on Luxembourg for 40 percent loss on the book

Mishriff ran in that race at leopardstown, he has not completely lost his form, part of me says I overrated last years king George a tad and have lowered my rating, so is he so bad this year if I underrated last years king George ? where he produced his best figure I’m not so sure. I’ve been saying all year he is not putting it all in and needs some head gear well he’s got it here and is 33/1 I’ve had to have some of that after a good prep in Ireland where he wasn’t suited to his the race panned out plus a top pilot today. The draw isn’t ideal but I can’t make him more than 14/1 here against these horses win or lose.

Of the others

Alpinista is like a fine wine like her grand mother, who waited till she was 5 to reach her peak as well, this mare is similar. Some will want to crab the odds but she is at peak of her powers and I loved the prep in the Yorkshire oaks, she won easy, where I think Tuesday was back on song, in fact I love her season. She is going to run eyeballs out here and I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t go close. The only thing against her as she has never faced a big field of runners so we will have to see how she handles it but otherwise I like her, her odds are cramped but she has her chance for the great trainer. I get the impression she has had a perfect preparation so I expect her to run big. She is a winner for me.

So my main bet. I’ve read on here those that say your guessing with Japanese form and I get it, makahiki and chrono genesis were decent losers for me in this race. Chrono genesis got a shocking ride and I’d overrated the mishriff run in meydan but we live and learn. I won’t say I’m deep into Japanese form as I’m not but have been trying to return some ratings the past couple of seasons and my Japanese reading has improved markedly

So why am I coming down on titleholder for this, one is obviously price but the other is the times this horse has run. He broke the track record beating who I believe is a proper grade 1 horse in hishi Aguazu. He is the first Japanese horse to do the double since deep impact.
His times are excellent and he is a relentless galloper, some will argue he knows nothing but I’ve got him on 130 rating which means yes I think he can bury this field. He races closely to the pace and his form off the lay off times wise is his best. He clearly puts it all in. Will he handle the going? Chrono genesis didn’t. So why should he. Well I thought he caught an attritional track when winning Tenno sho and he is out of a motivator mare so stamina isn’t an issue either and should handle soft going. Anyway I put him in at 4/1 for this and because of the Japanese hoodoo which in all fairness some horses have not been good enough, he has his chance. He has blossomed as a 4 year old and in a race of fully exposed horses bar a couple I have to with what I think is the horse with the most ability. And when people say guess they want to try and learn the Japanese form book, it isn’t easy

With the ground being soft rather than heavy (I agree with figgis) I have shifted Titleholder into the save column as he has abundance of stamina and if he acts on the going he could try to make all and may be difficult to pull back.

Just 1mm of rain overnight, penetrometer 3.9 Very Soft...  some rain forecast for this afternoon..

Harry Callaghan,
How's Hishi Iguazu a proper Gp1 horse?
He's never won at that level,in fact he's
overall record is 2/10 wins.

All green thanks to some fortunate/inspired backing and trading. The best financial result would be Bubble Gift only because I backed the colt at 160 all in but an unlikely winner I feel. As stated below Titleholder has posted some very fast times over the distance and stamina should not be an issue. If he handles the ground will only be answered this afternoon and similarly whether he can defy Japanese horse`s record in the race. However, he alongside Luxembourg and Bubble Gift would be bottle green.

My ante on this race is so bad courtesy of Desert Crown and Baaeed even an early saver on Luxembourg plus 'laying a few rags will not give me a Green book. As such, have 'lay' Luxembourg to try and achieve equilibrium.

But, I'd like to see Luxembourg win as any other than a 3 yr-old or a Japanese winner is a non-event going forward. I think there are too many no-hopers running in the race eg Alenquer, Mishriff, Broome, Sealiway and Mare Australis; Vadeni is here courtesy of Baaeed too.

Potentially a very competitive race but I still say that as far as quality goes, on paper, that it's one of the weakest Arcs. Hopefully something will step up a couple of notches. In many years I have at least a handful of runners with Gp1 speed figures. Then it's the more difficult job of working out which of them are the most likely runners to run to peak form. Often I settle on the wrong one, and sometimes none of them are at their best on the day.

This year is different because I have only the one runner, Westover, who has clocked a Gp1 figure so far this season. Others might have won Gp1s but they were weak on the clock. So it's just the single bet in the hope that the KG was just a temporary regression and he can return to his Irish Derby level. Far from the best Irish Derby win I've seen but I reckon it makes him the one to beat here. If he fails to fire then I wouldn't be surprised whatever the winner.

Already raining heavily at Longchamp.. pouring down..

whoops..sorry. lol..  I'm looking at  Strasbourg...  no idea what's happening in Paris..

same at Longchamp, you were right first time!

correction doesn't seem to be raining now at Paris

Harry - out of interest...what figures do you have for Mishriff at York in
comparison to Ascot? Surely the Juddmonte was the peak of his form - that
to my eye was a stand-out career performance.

And what's your view of him staying a well run 12f...especially on this going?

I'm not sure...but I was hopeful enough to have a few bets on him at huge
odds, just in case we got good ground which would've given him a chance of
staying - on this ground, I just cannot see it and he's a definite lay for
the frame.

Ground described as deep and holding by a jockey but if the Lagardere time is any guide they appear to be going through it well. The worst part of that race was the start, where they looked to be kicking up plenty of turf, but that 7f start isn't part of the Arc circuit. It's fair to say the Lagardere was a poor Gp1 with a mediocre time performance, so while the ground is still soft it's a fair bit quicker than yesterday. However, it remains to be seen if it'll still ride that way after it's been churned up further after the next races.

Penzance iguazo will be a group 1 winner he’s just not been able to lay a glove on titleholder.

Gibberish it’s more about price with mishriff 33/1 just an insult. At the time I had his ascot run better than his juddmonte win he just bumped into one at ascot. I’ve down graded the race now but have been waiting for him in headgear as he’s got lazy but his run at leopardstown was still satisfactory. I don’t think it’s heavy tbh so I think he’ll be ok tbh. Just enormous odds

I quite often talk nonsense so don’t hang on my words

I’ve added Tasso now for a 40% loser in an open year. Onesto or westover are not good for but particularly onesto

Alpinista currently favourite on the PM

Harry - as I stated...I've backed him for big bucks and in the last few days of
the AP book when it was looking like there was no chance of a faster surface,
I couldn't resist but claw back some cash in laying Mishriff at a perplexingly
short odds - 25 I think.

I'll be ecstatic if he wins but I think he's got little chance as there are two big
questions...his stamina in a truly run race and the double whammy of the ground which
will really test him to the max - and despite having bits & pieces of softer ground
form, I've heard Gosden speak negatively about an easier surface over the last couple
of years - the value you speak of has been well squeezed out in my view.

Are you confident that conditions (trip/ground) will suit him?

I think he’ll be ok gibberish you either handle it or you don’t. When you say the price has gone what price should he be?

Ground looks nowhere near as bad as last year and horses that travel well seem be doing fine and finding plenty.
Sealiway should still have a decent e/w chance but my speculator on Bubble Gift is harder to fancy.
Have had small savers on Onesto and Vadeni.

I think the doubts are massive so right now he's half the price he should be - probably 50 - 66/1 range.
It's only his innate class that gives him the slightest squeak and as you will be aware, he's officially
the top-rated in a substandard year.

Good luck though...that'll put a beam on my boat too

Good luck all

Bloody Marvellous. So happy for the connections

Well done Alpinista and Sir Mark.

That was a lovely ride. So pleased for them, such a great trainer, if only he took all the sheiks horses on. Anyway he’s done it

I'm really pleased for Prescott despite Alpinista being the third worse result for me in an all-green book.

Alenquer had no trouble in running at all and ran to his mark - beaten about 6 lengths...like last year, so
the anticipated strengthening up as a 4yo I hoped for wasn't there but there are easier group ones for him.

He still beat more than half the field (8th or 9th) so I'd expect I would've got a small draw from that
spread bet I speculated about.

Well done Alpinista backers. Betting aside, I can honestly say that's the runner I would've wanted to win. Expertly handled by Prescott.

Only 3 days of Japanese ratings down the saturated Kermit. Never again, at least alpinista has done the business although Vadeni would of been just as nice.

Not sure what frankie was doing but great for sir mark just a great trainer, he must be delighted he went

When I started this thread back in March, I did not anticipate that there would be so much good discussion and so much mutual respect on here between the contributors, which you don't get on some of Betfair's forums.  The only (slight) low point was the balloting out of runners, which was something out of our control.  Nice to see Sir Mark winning too!

Le Parisienne just finished nowhere in the Opera - Very Elegant also down the field yesterday. Don't think they were missed in the Arc

A_T, I think Kyprios was the biggest loss for the race.

yes Figgis I posted yesterday that Ballydoyle's best chance for the Arc had just run

Luxembourg never seemed to get involved today - maybe he'll go to Ascot but O'Brien was saying how hard they had worked him for Leopardstown so it never sounded encouraging

Vadeni seemed to benefit from having no race in Ireland - good for racing he didn't win though very few would have wanted to see CS on the winner

With hindsight I think you guys are right about Kyprios though I wasn't
in agreement a month or so ago when he sneaked into the betting on here.

Good race today,6 GP1's now on the spin for Alpinista.
Did'nt think her 1L beating of Tuesday was good enough
for the Arc,tbh.
Can't argue with her record though.
Backers
  wd
   GL.

AOB said " Luxembourg pulled a muscle on the ground. " The stable was very, very confident beforehand "will win" so there had to be a reason for a poor run. Never in it from a good draw. I thought it might be the ground and indirectly it was. Break even result for me. Good for Prescott, deserves it with a wonderfully consistent mare.

where did Ballydoyle say before the race that Luxembourg "will win"?

Luxembourg: Pulled a muscle. Not a again. I'll not back him next time - he does that each time when I'm on. I was thinking maybe Japan Cup or Breeders Cup. Instead on the injured list once again.

I thought Luxembourg was quite weak in the market, certainly on here anyway, which is usually the opposite of what happens when they're confident.

I was on Luxembourg at 10 which I thought represented his chance. I never saw anything that justified him being so short in the market.

Lovely result today for the handicap King.

Don't often see a horse pulling double at the 300m marker in that ground.

Well done all supporters.

the japanese really are messing up too many horses by going for this race. there is a big 10f g1 on in a couple of weeks which many of these could have run in. they only have 6 g1 races beyond a mile each year (all ages). their horses rarely run on soft ground. this is a very hard race to win. 5 horses ran here today and came no where. have to give them thumbs up for optimism though.

well done winners , enjoy .

I think the japanese horses will win in the future . The key is obviously decent ground

I think we all agree that it wasn't the strongest of Arc's. Alpinista's form with TT worked out and I had a form line which put Luxembourg and Westover together so we may have to wait and see if the 'pulled muscle' was really the problem. It was a winning Arc for me after many years but I never backed the winner. I laid Baaeed and backed him and I backed Westover and laid him. Strange old thing, betting.

Alpinista seems to run her race every time so it will be interesting if she goes to the Japan Cup or the Breeders Cup. Being a mare there is nothing to lose.

Everything to lose if she panics on a long flight or breaks a leg in running brigust but I know what you mean. It will not take millions off her stud value if she gets beaten. She will be at Lanwades so long as the owner is alive. Not sure why it is not a strong arc. Last year's winner third, the French Derby and Eclipse winner second, Irish Derby winner sixth and a host of other Grade 1 winners way behind. The 2 mares that were balloted out were well beaten in other races so their absence made no difference. This mare was under-rated because she had won in Germany up until the Yorkshire Oaks, but German form is as good as any other country at the moment. The fifth horse, Grand Glory had a previous rating of 120 and had the benefit, like the winner, of the mare's allowance. If the last 10 years have raised a serious question, it is whether at this time of year, a 3lb mare's allowance is necessary.

Nothing wrong with that Arc.She's been unbeaten for 8 races
stretching back over 2 yrs.2nd & 3rd have good form in the
book aswell.

Definitely a below par Arc in my view, but all credit to the mare for running her race once again and that's all that was needed. I think the 3lbs allowance is still necessary. Treve and Enable were well above average fillies, particularly in their 3yo season. Can't go punishing the rest of the females because of that. The very best fillies/mares still run somewhat slower than the very best colts.

where did Ballydoyle say before the race that Luxembourg "will win"?

Not public but private personal contacts. Reliable source.

I think we all agree that it wasn't the strongest of Arc's.

It wasn't the worst of Arcs either brigust1.Somewhere around the average for the past 20 odd years I would say.

Allowing for the fillies 3lb I have it as the joint worst this century with the Sottsass Arc.

On RPR's, and including f&m allowance to get race rating, the lowest race RPR's recorded since 1997 were Sottsass 133,Enable (2018) 134,Sagamix 134,Found 135,Torquator Tasso 135.

There have been 6 on 136 including Apinista. The highest was Peintre Celebre on 146.  Average for the 26 years is 138 so 2022 is just 2lb below that. The majority (17) are between 136 to 141.

On that evidence, I can't see that we saw anything out of the ordinary either way.

The RP have always liked to use one horse as a 'yardstick' to rate a race around. A highly unsatisfactory way of rating a race, for me, but each to their own. It looks like this year they've used Torquator Tasso as the yardstick and rated him to last year's form. Personally, all year I've had him below the level he ran to in last year's Arc. Whether he ran out of his skin last year or he's simply regressed a touch at the age of 5 I don't know, but once again on Sunday I have him a few pounds below his best. By rating TT to last year's form the RP have ramped up Al Hakeem in the process. I can't have him that high but we'll see how that pans out next season with him staying in training.

Also there are only 5lbs below the Post's average and their worst. Seems like some more of that race standardisation I was referring to at play, or if not specific race standardisation then the general assumption that it's an Arc so it can't be too bad. Wouldn't expect us to all agree how good or bad a race it was though, no reason why we should.

Luxembourg will be kept in training. surprised at that. the form of the 2000g in which he finished 3rd has not worked out. not so sure about the form of the irish champion stakes either. he got the run of the race.
hes lucky to have a g1 win in a well regarded race like the irish champion stakes in his resume. i'd be keen to retire him.

There are a handful of 4 year old and upwards races at the beginning of next year in England and France for Luxembourg to improve his standing then, if the 3 year olds are as poor as this year, there is the rest of the season including the Arc.

^^^^^^* Group 1 races

Figgis

We could spend a long time discussing the merits of rating races horses on time and collateral form and never end up agreeing on best methodology. Even if we did, we might still disagree on actual ratings as there are so many variables involved. On top of that, the sensitivity of final calculations can  make a mockery of being dogmatic about figures, especially if working in pounds.

For example, if Apinista had finished in a final time just 2 seconds faster (0.17 secs per furlong faster) the final time rating would go up by 17 lbs. I can't react faster than 0.4 seconds so judging pace to 0.17 secs per furlong is  a matter of luck not judgement. It can't be done.

I prefer to work with both time and collateral ratings personally, with time ratings never exceeding collateral ratings. When they are equal we can assume the race was run in an  even pace. When they are not the same, the degree to which the collateral rating is wrong must increase. So, these days I use time ratings to judge pace rather than absolute ability, and collateral ratings to judge ability.

No doubt you will disagree.That's why there will also be a layer for every backer.

Sandown, no matter what some people infer from other people's use of time ratings, time and collateral form are not separate entities. I'm sure some collateral ratings compilers never use time, and to a fair extent they can get by without it. However, time analysis without some kind of collateral/performance knowledge is completely worthless.

If a result at first seems quite average but time comparisons tells me it was better than average I will favour what the time tells me, providing I can justify it. Likewise, if the time was slow and I can make a case that it was entirely due to a false pace I will acknowledge that the form might be better than it seems. I thought the Arc was moderate going into the race and believed I had a reasonable line on Alpinista, as I had very similar figures for her on a few occasions, but I was prepared for her to prove she was better than she'd showed. You can never be completely sure of a horse's ceiling of ability when it keeps winning. I also thought I had a decent handle on Vadeni on his last two starts.

On watching the race, I thought as Alpinista and Vadeni finished ahead of Torquator Tasso (who I rated higher than both of them on last year's Arc win) then it was perfectly reasonable to think they were both either better than I thought or that both had improved. I began the time comparisons with that thought in mind. However, the time analysis told me that Alpinista ran to her previous peak, as did Vadeni. I know I was critical of the hype about Luxembourg and I'm still not convinced about the excuse,but it's quite obvious he didn't even run close to form. So my opinion of the result isn't just based on a moderate time, it's that the moderate time confirms what I thought beforehand and gives me no reason to rate the race higher than it appears.

figgis

Whilst Alpinista rightly gets all the plaudits for winning and in so doing  underlining just how consistent she is, we shouldn't forget just how good the performances for the second and third were, especially that of the German horse.

Luke Morris made great use of Alpinista's low draw (6) and got her in a close-up position throughout, racing on the rail, the whole way. She travelled well, finished in even time, and could be said to have got the perfect ride, optimising energy. No doubt Prescott had worked out a plan and Morris carried it  out to perfection. The final time (TS 90) was probably worse than average but a RPR of 126 (+3)  was not unnreasonable and just 2lb below average, but inn the mid-range for the race.

Likewise, Vadeni had a low draw in 2 but was dropped out further back  than the winner, about midway, but raced close to the rail. Given the doubts beforehand about trip and going, this was a sensible ride. Now that he has shown that he stays 12f, I would think that if he stays in training, all the top 10/12f races next year and on faster ground would be suitable targets. He has a turn of foot which he couldn't really show on that ground.

Torquator Tasso had a poor draw (18) and Dettori was forced to drop him out but even so he raced 4 or 5 wide the whole way. He couldn't begin to make up ground until the false straight and then had to make up maybe 5 or 6 lengths in the final 2-3 fulongs coming wide. He only just failed and given that he must have travelled maybe 20-30 metres/yards further than the winner, and then had to accelerate at the end,so running an uneven pace, his performance was excellent. Dettori didn't get many plaudits but he deserved them. On another day, with a better draw, he would probably have won. He had been trained all year for this one race but he clearly does best when the mud is  flying so he is limited for race opportunities during the summer. The race was rated through him which I agree with.

It may not have featured a really top class winner but it was a good race considering the conditions.

I still don't rate Vadeni. Yes he proves he stayed but unless next season is as bad as this (god help us) then he's got to make huge improvement to continue to figure in Gp1s when losing the 3yo allowance. I don't believe in over selling a race such as this as it undervalues the really good Arcs. Praise everything and you praise nothing. If people think this was a good Arc, fair enough it's how they see it, but then I'd like to know what they consider a poor Arc. Seems like some people think all Arcs are very good, which has to be nonsense.

So far for next years Arc we have Vadeni, Al Hakeem, Westover, Luxembourg and Onesto. Possibly Pyle Driver. The Fabre 2 year old Belbeck is supposed to be coming to Doncaster for the Futurity and may take on Auguste Rodin who is allegedly the Derby favourite. Does that look promising? At present next years Arc may not take a lot of winning. Any other additions? I suppose after last year's race we would have had Alpinista and Torquator Tasso on the list along with Hurricane Lane and Adayar. And been in a similar situation.

I have to disagree with Brain Dead Jockeys about the form of the 2000 Guineas:

Native Trail won the Irish 2000gns  next time
Coreubus won a Group 1 at Royal Ascot next time.
Perfect Power won Group 1 Commonwealth Cup. next time
Luxembourg won Irish Champion (group 1)

Looked a well above average guineas to me.

Does that look promising? At present next years Arc may not take a lot of winning

bit early to be saying that. there will be a generation of 3yos next year

That is why I said 'at present'. It would be great to get a good crop of three year olds. And there is a trophy to be won. Three 3 year olds have won in the last 10 years, Enable, Golden Horn and Treve. In the previous 10 years eight 3 year olds won it. Says a lot about recent three year old crops. We could do with a good one.

2003-2017 - 11 3yo winners - that must have been the golden era for 3yo crops

More older horses are now being kept in training.

With so few horses now covering so many top class mares it is going to affect decisions about retirement and the financial risks involved. It used to be a no-brainer to retire early but that may not be the case so often now. Especially with the 4 year old and upwards races to go for.

A_T, two of the most recent 3yos to win it,Treve and Enable were above average and went on to become repeat winners, so that's no slur on the 3yos they faced when they were 4yos. Also the 3yos in the last 6 years have only received 6lbs where they used to receive 8lbs. A significant difference I'd have thought, especially when the ground is on the softer side.

Question for Figgis as you're a time man.

When the ground is "holding" a lot of people say it needs rain to loosen it up.
I have always thought this to be an odd thought as it will only become deeper.

I read a piece by Mark Holder who uses timings for his punting. And he said in all the years he has timed races, when the ground is "holding" and then it rains the times have always become slower. So he debunks the theory of holding ground needing rain to make it easier for horses to get through.

Have you ever looked into that?

Brandyontherocks, yes I would completely agree with him. Don't think I can ever remember an occasion when the ground (or the effect it had on the runners) actually became quicker while there was rain during a meeting. I suppose it could make a difference overnight but never seen it during a racecard.

I prefer to work with both time and collateral ratings personally, with time ratings never exceeding collateral ratings. When they are equal we can assume the race was run in an  even pace. When they are not the same, the degree to which the collateral rating is wrong must increase. So, these days I use time ratings to judge pace rather than absolute ability, and collateral ratings to judge ability.



I should added the qualifier "with the exception of horses which have run in an uneven pace, and especially when they show a much faster than even time in the latter part of the race (usually the last 2 f)"

We can show mathematically that these horses expend a much greater degree of energy in doing so, and on the assumption that they will be ridden more evenly in future, we can extrapolate to a higher rating. Of course the assumption may not hold and they may continue to be ridden the same way in which case they will not achieve a higher rating. But in theory, they could, which is why now increasingly sectional time analysts will give the horse an upgrade in rating. I prefer to qualify this now by using the terms "capacity or potential" to achieve a higher rating.

I wouldn't deny that many times these superior ratings are never achieved for one reason or another, but there are enough that do to make it profitable to take these projected ratings into account.It is for this reason that I rated Luxembourg capable of achieving a 130+ rating. If he keep pulling muscles, of course, he may never reach that potential. I will give him the benefit of the doubt for next season, and along with Desert Crown, if he stays in training, we might yet have a higher opinion of this years top 3 year olds.

A few postscripts to the race
1. Strong support at the off for Alpinista. Cause?
2. 5 yr old mare won - long time since previous
3 Low draw was a help this year on soft ground. High draw a big negative in large field.
4. Japanese didn't turn up. Soft ground the problem?
5. All Hakeem improved 13 lb on RPR  and ran a stormer. With Vadeni performing well, Rouget is a trainer out of the top drawer.
6 What happened to Westover. No more excuses.
7. Mishriff not suited by 12f on soft .Ran poorly.
8. Mistake to water on the previous weekend.Soft ground always likely especially if soft on Trials day.
9.Race may have been no better than average in ratings but that didn't matter with an exciting race.
10. The Verry Eelegant episode was poor PR. If the PM limit is the reason for the 20 rnnr cap, then that is putting the cart before the horse(s)

Beckett thought Westover ran to his Irish Derby form

I agree with the 20 limit - horses lacking the required quality like VE and the French filly were rightly effectively handicapped out of it. Judging by their performances last weekend their most telling contribution to the Arc might have been getting in the way of better horses

I don't agree with that.. The 20 limit is only because of the quinte bet, with a max of 20 on the betting slip to pick the first 5..

A filly with VE's Australian record, and another who just got pipped in the Vermeille and touched off in the French Oaks should never be excluded like that... plenty of others fared abysmally.. and there were excuses for both fillies runs..

Beckett thought Westover ran to his Irish Derby form


Then he was wrong by 7lb if you go by RPR's (116 v 123)