OAKS 2022

An interesting choice.

Obviously fantastic pedigree and a very promising start, form she may leave miles behind.

Only slight quibble is the stallion as Galileo has been less and less successful as his stallion career came to an end.

I prefer Golden Lyra myself at huge odds,

Pleased with her run yesterday.

She's got Oaks written all over her.

It's just guessing games in a large pool. Are the entries out?

Toy has got a top pedigree but couldn't win a maiden. Golden Lyra has a nice pedigree, but probably beat rubbish on debut.

I like Tuesday, but will she go for the Epsom Oaks? Apparently, English 1000G will come too soon, and given the proximity of Irish 1000G and Epsom Oaks Tuesday will be more likely be aimed for the Irish Oaks unless she skips Guineas altogether and go straight to Epsom.

Nothing new contemplating back one of AOB's - she'd be a no-show.

Emily Upjohn has been promoted to 4th fav after winning a novice fillies race beating a bunch of non-entities. The "bookies" are running scared given she's trained by the same trainer as Enable. Could she be another Enable? 7/1?

Emily Upjohn into best price 6/1 (mostly 5/1) with one only going 10/3. I hope it's the confidence of connections backing her.

Nashwa another Gosden entry hacked up at Haydock

Still sweet on Tuesday.

With The Moonlight an easy winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes - entered at Epsom

Even though with a voucher for Tuesday here I do have my doubt about her effectiveness over the trip. Also, the Irish 1000g is just under 2 weeks to Epsom Oaks.

After Zellie's good run today, I'm on to Agave.  She is scheduled to run next on 8th May in the gr. 2 Prix Greffulhe over 2100m..  she is the only filly in the race and very few of them run in this. Which shows Fabre must have some confidence in her. Appleby has no less than 5 colts entered..

Hope to see Magical Lagoon  come over who I've backed
for this.Made a decent reappearance @ Navan when just
done by Concert Hall.
20s+ here & 16-14/1 books.
   GL ALL

A few of the big guns are out in the Musidora next wednesday eg Emily Upjohn, except Tuesday; AOB is represented by The Algarve.

Emily Upjohn is 4/6 from 13/8 with her stablemate Nashwa (12/1 Oaks) an absentee in the musidora tomorrow. If achieving a facile win her price will crash, otherwise implode; Enable or Hyped? Take your pick.

5 totally unexposed fillies line up in the musidora ,the fav will obviously attract lots of interest with her unbeaten profile and with frankie up she could be "anything " but the same  could be said about most of the others ,around 4/6 my first play will be a lay of her. yes she was very impressive under a penalty last time and unbeaten she ticks a lot of boxes but  godolphin and ballydoyle are in opposition with well bred promising  progressive types and will prob have a win bet on one of these 2 also. opinions encouraged.

On racecourse form it's impossible to get a true handle on any of them because all are coming into the race off a comfortable win but at a much lower level than usually takes to win this race. I won't be laying the fav here myself but I can definitely see why you think she's worth taking on at this price. Not often you see a trial where all the runners have the potential to develop into an Oaks winner. Looking forward to watching this one.

yes figgis it looks a very good renewal even tho a small field  the manner of the favs win last time will have plenty lumping on her and itv will prob be giving her the wow factor and hyping her up ,she may be up to it but all have potential and at odds on i have to take her on  ,i cant deny she was impressive but at the prices it wont do too much damage laying her if she wins  and as we know wide margin winners are often overbet next time . the algarve has had a little bit more racing  exp andtand could be hard to peg back if going off in front  at the prices may also play smallish on her to win.

Emily Upjohn very impressive - pulled a but but still won easily.

Magical Lagoon's being targeted at the Ribblesdale and
gives Epsom a miss.

Nashwa very impressive today at Newbury - Gosden has a very strong hand.

It's good to know connections of Nashwa have opted for this race rather than the French Oaks despite her stable has the shortie fav Emily Upjohn too, and Chantilly a probable easier option. I believe any other owner and/or manager (Teddy Grimthorpe/Enable) would probably have taken the advice of her trainer and headed to Chantilly.

There's only one Oaks ie at Epsom.

FAV NOW 5-4 ON BETFAIR
EVENS with the bookies

Tuesday - the one time fav - looks dodgy here. At 13 (here) very few takers even; final decs wednesday, I think.

Tuesday drifted to a big price on here (15s+ and bigger).
Should improve for the step up in trip and has performed
well in 2 Classics being placed in both.Got an excellent
chance in this,to me anyway.
   GL ALL

tuesday drawn in stall 1- stats not good

Tuesday was my main selection (antepost prior to 1000G) but mediocre since the race; market indicator is not good either. On the other hand the impressive performances of Emily Upjohn (not a great fan of her trainer) cannot be dismissed lightly; her stablemate could be her most serious adversary.

dont think pretty polly winner done much wrong, and surprised at price- seems a bit big.

Have backed Moon De Vega at various prices up to 80s . Probably isnt good enough , but exceptionally unlucky at Chester , caught on heels early on , then badly baulked later , may be value , may be a disaster .

Backed Concert Hall and Nashwa each way.

gone with concert hall ,with the moonlight each way and smaller on the algarve 4 places each way 100/1 b365 and slys ,reasoning on my oaks and derby fred on the horseracing  forum good luck all.

Well done tentofollower

What a way to lose Emily Upjohn? Fell out of the stall. But, very well done to backers of original antepost fav Tuesday. I think Tuesday will head to the Irish Oaks hopefully Emily Upjohn too for a revenge perhaps.

I hope both will go to The Arc.

Thanks guys.  Very pleased but a fortunate winner I know.

I think most people will see Emily as an unfortunate loser and her price will reflect that if they meet in Ireland

Outstanding OP

Played penzance, good shout at the odds you played at

The Irish Oaks is on 16th July (not June) thus every chance Emily Upjohn could show up for another contest against tuesday on her backyard. If so, would that not be interesting? There's still plenty of time for another prep for The Arc in Oct for either filly, I reckon.

Watching the race live, I thought because of the the slow pace the missed start made ni difference. She was level with the eventual winner turning into the straight. So I thought she beaten fair and square. Knowing people would think Emily was unlucky would mean Emily would be over bet if they met again meaning I could get a decent price on Tuesday.
But having watched it a few times I think Frankie was too late asking his mount to quicken. Whether he didn't see Ryan kick on or was over confident I'm not sure. But that was the difference between winning and losing for me. Not the slow start.

Concur 100% brandy, thought Dettori messed up big time.

Yes, memories of Greville Starkey.  Emily had got over the starting issue and had her chance.

Races are often won or lost at the start and this race was almost certainly affected by EU 's start. Given that in Flat racing 1/5 th or 1/6th second equates to 1 length it's not difficult to think that at least 1 sec might have been lost. But the main effect would have been on position/tactics. Plan A as Dettori said went out of the window, and he was not able to lay up. He was also forced to race wide , adding distance run. Dettori might also have been unsighted for a moment,not spotting Moores move.

.
The infamous Dancing Brave Derby was not won by the best horse in the race as was subsequently proven. This was almost a re-run of that race.

This is not to denigrate Moore's ride or the winners ability, both excellent but if they meet gain then EU would be a firm favourite to turn the tables.

Dettori might also have been unsighted for a moment,not spotting Moores move

I think this was the crucial part. As you say, with such a narrow margin of victory it isn't a huge stretch to say that the early ground lost made the difference. Likewise, the intended riding plans were scuppered. Nevertheless, personally I think he still would have won narrowly if he'd been wise to Moore's move. I've read elsewhere that EU had as much chance as the winner because earlier in the straight she was level with, or even ahead of, Tuesday. This is true but what wasn't mentioned is that Moore asked his filly for her effort and stole about 5 lengths with Dettori still sitting motionless.

Regarding the value of the actual race, on the bare form/time I have it as just average. As to the future, we don't know how both fillies will come out of the race, but instinctively I'd side with EU. Tuesday did it well, I have her improving 3lbs and the way she quickened up was quite impressive, so I couldn't say there won't be even more to come. However, my feeling is that Epsom was her pinnacle. While the Oaks wasn't exactly slowly run overall, I think EU being such a big filly would be seen to better effect off a stronger early pace and reckon she's a bit better than the bare Oaks form. As to the Arc, neither filly would interest me at this stage, I didn't see another Enable.

Nothing like the Dancing Brave race at all.  The pace was such that Dettori managed, with little real effort, to get the horse into the race proper with 3-4 furlongs to run.  Starkey left D.B. with far too much to do.  Not comparable at all in my view.

Spot on loyal

The reference to Dancing Brave's Derby is because the best horse didn't win either race as a result of the the amount of ground that had to be made up in the straight and the distance beaten being similar.

The sectionals for the Oaks show that both horses finished the last 2 furlongs in very fast fractions with EU actually getting below 22 secs (21.75) which for a 12f horse is exceptional (Hukum 22.81). I've kept sectional timings for many years and I can't find that being done before in a 12f race irrespective of going allowance. (Dancing Brave covered the last 2f in 23.58 secs on comparable going)

Money for EU for the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot. She's into 3.4 from 10 (4/1 with 'sly'). If so, I'm disappointed no rematch against Tuesday on July 16th. Why the Ribblesdale Stakes Mr Gosden?

I would be very surprised if they went for that race.
Surely it would be another group 1 next.

she's not going to run in the ribblesdale ffs

Dettori is booked to ride.   Prepare for the King George rather than the Irish Oaks?..  an even better match against Desert Crown.. I'd like to see it..

I have to say that I am getting very bored with this now but I also have to say that from 3-4 out Emily Upjohn had no ground to make up whatsoever - certainly not on the winner.  Please re-watch and re-assess the race and then stop posting your Dancing Brave rubbish.  Because that is what it is.

If she's a certain runner in the Ribblesdale Stakes 4/1 is a stonking price considering she was only 6/4 at Epsom, if Epsom assertion has not taken its toll on her. But, I'd doubt that very much. I also think meeting Desert Crown in the King George before The Arc is unlikely too.

I hope Emily Upjohn goes to Ireland for the Irish Oaks against Tuesday and Concert Hall (again).

Looking at the sectionals of the Oaks on Racing TV, and watching the race again, I can see that both the winner and EU had virtually the same pace except of course for the start. I withdraw my Dancing Brave comparison as a result. It is not like for like.

Dettori caught up the poor start at the rear of the field but Moore was also towards the rear so both finished with the same finishing splits.

We don't know however the actual distance covered by both but EU took the high road whilst Tuesday took the low road. EU supporters might claim she travelled a bit further. Enough to make the difference? "Possibly but not for certain. If they meet again it might be just as close. It is possible that EU might be better suited by a galloping track though.

Assuming both fillies come out of the race well, I'd go 1/2 (not the price I'd want to take) that EU gets the better of Tuesday in the near future. Only marginally because of the stumble and poor trip in the Oaks, and mainly due to my belief that she actually put up a faster performance in the Musidora. I reckon it was the slow early pace in the Oaks that hindered her more than anything else. Even the very best horses ever couldn't have finished much quicker than those finishing splits, the damage had already been done with the positioning off the slow pace. It's entirely possible that Tuesday is a much improved filly who would have done just as well in a faster run race, but I'll wait until she proves it. Until she does, I'd side with EU being the better filly in a race with a strong early pace, or, at least, a more evenly run event.

Emily Upjohn was 1L in front of Tuesday around 2 1/2F out.
No comparison with the 1986 Derby.

Not so penzance . These are the cumulative times taken to 3rd, 2nd, 1st pole, finish line, as shown by Racing TV evidence

Tuesday            125.05secs   135.48    146.37   157.83
Emily Upjohn       125.31       136.09    146.57   157.84

NB It looked as though EU got her nose in front in the last furlong but was beaten on the nod. She was in front past the line.

Personally, and speaking as an EU backer, I  will be backing her against Tuesday if ever they should meet again, as well as any other other filly. She should have won comfortably at Epsom and she has bags of physical scope and I expect her to make the greater improvement.

The Dancing Brave comparison is a red herring but I agree that the races are not comparable. My mistake.

Emily Upjohn,according to Gosden might well run
in the Ribbisdale.
*Watch a rerun on youtube,she was 1L in front of Tuesday,at least.

Parallax effect penzance

Really?
I don't think so.

According to an aerial view someone saw on the Morning Line it showed Emily in front but the normal footage doesn't back that up.

some footage here not shown on ITV. EU certainly looks to be in front

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bse556g7vAA&t=145s

at the risk of being obsessive a screenshot here

https://i.imgur.com/4umIqSv.png

On that evidence, I would agree. But take a look at the sectionals from Racing TV. EU is never in  front of Tuesday. So, mystery??

https://racing-uk-production.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/jGxR6GGRwggQxrGyweMvHeDm?response-content-disposition=inline%3B%20filename%3D%22epsom-downs_20220603_1530.pdf%22%3B%20filename%2A%3DUTF-8%27%27epsom-downs_20220603_1530.pdf&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIBH5FWQ3MLG7BQZQ%2F20220609%2Feu-west-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20220609T124013Z&X-Amz-Expires=300&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=9c1e27919d669f2d6a7649ba20d6be2b76e2b993ed3bfaca0ae8d55cb366f8d3

The overhead shots from the Youtube video do show that EU was in front one stride before the line. I can only think that the sectionals do not capture the minor changes in position . I think that I'm inclined to go along with the visual evidence that EU was actually in front earlier in the straight, which makes it even more annoying that she got beaten!

PS  I have it on good authority that EU connections think very highly of EU and there is the suggestion that not only do they think she is their best filly but also their best horse in the yard, so their surprise at being beaten was huge. Perhaps Dettori was over-confident in the end and got caught out by Moore's fight back. Moore's ride maybe made the difference so its not all about EU & Dettori.

Those sectionals are only taken at each furlong marker. At the 3 pole Tuesday is narrowly ahead as Moore asks her for an effort. Meanwhile, still on the bridle, EU coasts ahead of Tuesday and up to just behind the leaders. However, just before the 2 pole Tuesday has surged ahead again with Dettori unaware and still sitting motionless.

Gosden said she is as good as Taghrooda. That being the case I think it's strange they are considering a G2 at Royal Ascot so soon after Epsom

So there's credence Emily Upjohn (6/4) could be Ribblesdale Stakes bound. The reasons being it's been done before; a long wait for Irish Oaks (16th July), and the Yorkshire Oaks.

To me it's absolutely barmy Mr Gosden unless there's a serious intention for a rematch with Tuesday and/or Concert Hall in the Irish Oaks on 16th July; swapping a Gp 1 for a much inferior Gp 2 after a short head defeat courtesy of a slip at the start of Epsom Oaks.

If I'm the owner I'd be furious and gobsmacked if Emily Upjohn turns up at the Ribblesdale Stakes and not Irish Oaks. Barmy!

Wins a GP2 puts a few more quid on her foals,I'd imagine.

Ribblesdale Stakes (16th June); Irish Oaks (16th July); Yorkshire Oaks (18th Aug)

After the slip at Epsom on 3rd June I'd have thought give her a bit more time to recover, and then head for the Irish Oaks (16th July). Then Yorkshire Oaks (18th Aug) before The Arc (2nd Oct).

The Ribblesdale Stakes is worth £113k; Irish Oaks £285k. I mean euros for both)

If I'm the owner I'd be furious and gobsmacked if Emily Upjohn turns up at the Ribblesdale Stakes and not Irish Oaks

could well be the owners behind it - they all want a winner at the Royal meeting

As the Oaks wasn't run as fast as it could've been then there's a decent chance that it didn't tax EU much at all. If that's the case then beating a field of, at best, third raters next week isn't going to ruin her chances of winning an Irish Oaks, which is over another month away.

Gosden has previous in running his 3yo Oaks winner in the KG.  He did this with Taghrooda.  The Irish Oaks could be too close to the KG.

I do not think the King George (23rd July) is on her agenda. If so, only 3 weeks to Yorkshire Oaks. I think probably post Ribblesdale or Irish Oaks will be the Yorkshire Oaks. Then The Arc, if she excels.

Incidentally Tuesday is only 5/2 for the French Oaks, same as Nashwa.

EU is in the entries for the King George

I heard today that Emily Upjohn will be running in next week's Ribblesdale..

The market is clearly indicating that. EU is as short as 4/6; insider trading the only beneficiary. This sport is getting increasingly sickening, from governing body to stables!