|
By:
Watching the race live, I thought because of the the slow pace the missed start made ni difference. She was level with the eventual winner turning into the straight. So I thought she beaten fair and square. Knowing people would think Emily was unlucky would mean Emily would be over bet if they met again meaning I could get a decent price on Tuesday.
But having watched it a few times I think Frankie was too late asking his mount to quicken. Whether he didn't see Ryan kick on or was over confident I'm not sure. But that was the difference between winning and losing for me. Not the slow start. |
|
By:
Concur 100% brandy, thought Dettori messed up big time.
|
|
By:
Yes, memories of Greville Starkey. Emily had got over the starting issue and had her chance.
|
|
By:
Races are often won or lost at the start and this race was almost certainly affected by EU 's start. Given that in Flat racing 1/5 th or 1/6th second equates to 1 length it's not difficult to think that at least 1 sec might have been lost. But the main effect would have been on position/tactics. Plan A as Dettori said went out of the window, and he was not able to lay up. He was also forced to race wide , adding distance run. Dettori might also have been unsighted for a moment,not spotting Moores move.
. The infamous Dancing Brave Derby was not won by the best horse in the race as was subsequently proven. This was almost a re-run of that race. This is not to denigrate Moore's ride or the winners ability, both excellent but if they meet gain then EU would be a firm favourite to turn the tables. |
|
By:
Dettori might also have been unsighted for a moment,not spotting Moores move
I think this was the crucial part. As you say, with such a narrow margin of victory it isn't a huge stretch to say that the early ground lost made the difference. Likewise, the intended riding plans were scuppered. Nevertheless, personally I think he still would have won narrowly if he'd been wise to Moore's move. I've read elsewhere that EU had as much chance as the winner because earlier in the straight she was level with, or even ahead of, Tuesday. This is true but what wasn't mentioned is that Moore asked his filly for her effort and stole about 5 lengths with Dettori still sitting motionless. Regarding the value of the actual race, on the bare form/time I have it as just average. As to the future, we don't know how both fillies will come out of the race, but instinctively I'd side with EU. Tuesday did it well, I have her improving 3lbs and the way she quickened up was quite impressive, so I couldn't say there won't be even more to come. However, my feeling is that Epsom was her pinnacle. While the Oaks wasn't exactly slowly run overall, I think EU being such a big filly would be seen to better effect off a stronger early pace and reckon she's a bit better than the bare Oaks form. As to the Arc, neither filly would interest me at this stage, I didn't see another Enable. |
|
By:
Nothing like the Dancing Brave race at all. The pace was such that Dettori managed, with little real effort, to get the horse into the race proper with 3-4 furlongs to run. Starkey left D.B. with far too much to do. Not comparable at all in my view.
|
|
By:
Spot on loyal
|
|
By:
The reference to Dancing Brave's Derby is because the best horse didn't win either race as a result of the the amount of ground that had to be made up in the straight and the distance beaten being similar.
The sectionals for the Oaks show that both horses finished the last 2 furlongs in very fast fractions with EU actually getting below 22 secs (21.75) which for a 12f horse is exceptional (Hukum 22.81). I've kept sectional timings for many years and I can't find that being done before in a 12f race irrespective of going allowance. (Dancing Brave covered the last 2f in 23.58 secs on comparable going) |
|
By:
Money for EU for the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot. She's into 3.4 from 10 (4/1 with 'sly'). If so, I'm disappointed no rematch against Tuesday on July 16th. Why the Ribblesdale Stakes Mr Gosden?
|
|
By:
I would be very surprised if they went for that race.
Surely it would be another group 1 next. |
|
By:
she's not going to run in the ribblesdale ffs
|
|
By:
Dettori is booked to ride. Prepare for the King George rather than the Irish Oaks?.. an even better match against Desert Crown.. I'd like to see it..
|
|
By:
I have to say that I am getting very bored with this now but I also have to say that from 3-4 out Emily Upjohn had no ground to make up whatsoever - certainly not on the winner. Please re-watch and re-assess the race and then stop posting your Dancing Brave rubbish. Because that is what it is.
|
|
By:
If she's a certain runner in the Ribblesdale Stakes 4/1 is a stonking price considering she was only 6/4 at Epsom, if Epsom assertion has not taken its toll on her. But, I'd doubt that very much. I also think meeting Desert Crown in the King George before The Arc is unlikely too.
I hope Emily Upjohn goes to Ireland for the Irish Oaks against Tuesday and Concert Hall (again). |
|
By:
Looking at the sectionals of the Oaks on Racing TV, and watching the race again, I can see that both the winner and EU had virtually the same pace except of course for the start. I withdraw my Dancing Brave comparison as a result. It is not like for like.
Dettori caught up the poor start at the rear of the field but Moore was also towards the rear so both finished with the same finishing splits. We don't know however the actual distance covered by both but EU took the high road whilst Tuesday took the low road. EU supporters might claim she travelled a bit further. Enough to make the difference? "Possibly but not for certain. If they meet again it might be just as close. It is possible that EU might be better suited by a galloping track though. |
|
By:
Assuming both fillies come out of the race well, I'd go 1/2 (not the price I'd want to take) that EU gets the better of Tuesday in the near future. Only marginally because of the stumble and poor trip in the Oaks, and mainly due to my belief that she actually put up a faster performance in the Musidora. I reckon it was the slow early pace in the Oaks that hindered her more than anything else. Even the very best horses ever couldn't have finished much quicker than those finishing splits, the damage had already been done with the positioning off the slow pace. It's entirely possible that Tuesday is a much improved filly who would have done just as well in a faster run race, but I'll wait until she proves it. Until she does, I'd side with EU being the better filly in a race with a strong early pace, or, at least, a more evenly run event.
|
|
By:
Emily Upjohn was 1L in front of Tuesday around 2 1/2F out.
No comparison with the 1986 Derby. |
|
By:
Not so penzance . These are the cumulative times taken to 3rd, 2nd, 1st pole, finish line, as shown by Racing TV evidence
Tuesday 125.05secs 135.48 146.37 157.83 Emily Upjohn 125.31 136.09 146.57 157.84 NB It looked as though EU got her nose in front in the last furlong but was beaten on the nod. She was in front past the line. Personally, and speaking as an EU backer, I will be backing her against Tuesday if ever they should meet again, as well as any other other filly. She should have won comfortably at Epsom and she has bags of physical scope and I expect her to make the greater improvement. The Dancing Brave comparison is a red herring but I agree that the races are not comparable. My mistake. |
|
By:
Emily Upjohn,according to Gosden might well run
in the Ribbisdale. *Watch a rerun on youtube,she was 1L in front of Tuesday,at least. |
|
By:
Parallax effect penzance
|
|
By:
Really?
I don't think so. |
|
By:
According to an aerial view someone saw on the Morning Line it showed Emily in front but the normal footage doesn't back that up.
|
|
By:
some footage here not shown on ITV. EU certainly looks to be in front
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bse556g7vAA&t=145s |
|
By:
at the risk of being obsessive a screenshot here
https://i.imgur.com/4umIqSv.png |
|
By:
On that evidence, I would agree. But take a look at the sectionals from Racing TV. EU is never in front of Tuesday. So, mystery??
https://racing-uk-production.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/jGxR6GGRwggQxrGyweMvHeDm?response-content-disposition=inline%3B%20filename%3D%22epsom-downs_20220603_1530.pdf%22%3B%20filename%2A%3DUTF-8%27%27epsom-downs_20220603_1530.pdf&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIBH5FWQ3MLG7BQZQ%2F20220609%2Feu-west-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20220609T124013Z&X-Amz-Expires=300&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=9c1e27919d669f2d6a7649ba20d6be2b76e2b993ed3bfaca0ae8d55cb366f8d3 |
|
By:
The overhead shots from the Youtube video do show that EU was in front one stride before the line. I can only think that the sectionals do not capture the minor changes in position . I think that I'm inclined to go along with the visual evidence that EU was actually in front earlier in the straight, which makes it even more annoying that she got beaten!
|
|
By:
PS I have it on good authority that EU connections think very highly of EU and there is the suggestion that not only do they think she is their best filly but also their best horse in the yard, so their surprise at being beaten was huge. Perhaps Dettori was over-confident in the end and got caught out by Moore's fight back. Moore's ride maybe made the difference so its not all about EU & Dettori.
|
|
By:
Those sectionals are only taken at each furlong marker. At the 3 pole Tuesday is narrowly ahead as Moore asks her for an effort. Meanwhile, still on the bridle, EU coasts ahead of Tuesday and up to just behind the leaders. However, just before the 2 pole Tuesday has surged ahead again with Dettori unaware and still sitting motionless.
|
|
By:
Gosden said she is as good as Taghrooda. That being the case I think it's strange they are considering a G2 at Royal Ascot so soon after Epsom
|
|
By:
So there's credence Emily Upjohn (6/4) could be Ribblesdale Stakes bound. The reasons being it's been done before; a long wait for Irish Oaks (16th July), and the Yorkshire Oaks.
To me it's absolutely barmy Mr Gosden unless there's a serious intention for a rematch with Tuesday and/or Concert Hall in the Irish Oaks on 16th July; swapping a Gp 1 for a much inferior Gp 2 after a short head defeat courtesy of a slip at the start of Epsom Oaks. If I'm the owner I'd be furious and gobsmacked if Emily Upjohn turns up at the Ribblesdale Stakes and not Irish Oaks. Barmy! |
|
By:
Wins a GP2 puts a few more quid on her foals,I'd imagine.
|
|
By:
Ribblesdale Stakes (16th June); Irish Oaks (16th July); Yorkshire Oaks (18th Aug)
After the slip at Epsom on 3rd June I'd have thought give her a bit more time to recover, and then head for the Irish Oaks (16th July). Then Yorkshire Oaks (18th Aug) before The Arc (2nd Oct). The Ribblesdale Stakes is worth £113k; Irish Oaks £285k. I mean euros for both) |
|
By:
If I'm the owner I'd be furious and gobsmacked if Emily Upjohn turns up at the Ribblesdale Stakes and not Irish Oaks
could well be the owners behind it - they all want a winner at the Royal meeting |
|
By:
As the Oaks wasn't run as fast as it could've been then there's a decent chance that it didn't tax EU much at all. If that's the case then beating a field of, at best, third raters next week isn't going to ruin her chances of winning an Irish Oaks, which is over another month away.
|
|
By:
Gosden has previous in running his 3yo Oaks winner in the KG. He did this with Taghrooda. The Irish Oaks could be too close to the KG.
|
|
By:
I do not think the King George (23rd July) is on her agenda. If so, only 3 weeks to Yorkshire Oaks. I think probably post Ribblesdale or Irish Oaks will be the Yorkshire Oaks. Then The Arc, if she excels.
Incidentally Tuesday is only 5/2 for the French Oaks, same as Nashwa. |
|
By:
EU is in the entries for the King George
|
|
By:
I heard today that Emily Upjohn will be running in next week's Ribblesdale..
|
|
By:
The market is clearly indicating that. EU is as short as 4/6; insider trading the only beneficiary. This sport is getting increasingly sickening, from governing body to stables!
|