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10/12 aged 7-9
3/12 top 3 betting
10/12 11st or below
3/12 won lto
8/12 ran within 35 days
12/12 min 2 runs at chelt
11/12 min 5 chase starts
10/12 min 2 chase wins
9/12 already had a run
4/12 won current season
(TheStatsDontLie)
Just the 45 entries prior to 5 day decs.
Usual mix of seasoned handicappers, versus unexposed horses looking to move up the ranks.
Some lovely types entered for this fiercely competitive handicap.
9/12 Rated between 137 - 148,something discussed prior to the last couple runnings.
Coole Cody was the second lowest rated winner (137) in those last 12 renewals.
Had one in mind for this best part 6 months,and he gets an entry.
However,needs it proper soft,I,m not so sure he will get that looking at a very dry 7 day forecast,we will see.
Carribean boy sets the 11st bar at present,unless the top weight or others decline the entry.
Some stables target the race,others I,m sure use this a guide re handicapping,all part of the guesswork.
Hold fire this end,way too many variables,no doubt there are a few that can outrun their present mark.
All we have to do is find them ...... Looking forward to this one.
3/12 top 3 betting
10/12 11st or below
3/12 won lto
8/12 ran within 35 days
12/12 min 2 runs at chelt
11/12 min 5 chase starts
10/12 min 2 chase wins
9/12 already had a run
4/12 won current season
(TheStatsDontLie)
Just the 45 entries prior to 5 day decs.
Usual mix of seasoned handicappers, versus unexposed horses looking to move up the ranks.
Some lovely types entered for this fiercely competitive handicap.
9/12 Rated between 137 - 148,something discussed prior to the last couple runnings.
Coole Cody was the second lowest rated winner (137) in those last 12 renewals.
Had one in mind for this best part 6 months,and he gets an entry.
However,needs it proper soft,I,m not so sure he will get that looking at a very dry 7 day forecast,we will see.
Carribean boy sets the 11st bar at present,unless the top weight or others decline the entry.
Some stables target the race,others I,m sure use this a guide re handicapping,all part of the guesswork.
Hold fire this end,way too many variables,no doubt there are a few that can outrun their present mark.
All we have to do is find them ...... Looking forward to this one.
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Same here Crop, I’ve bet Manofthemountain and Midnight Shadow both 25’s AP (as well as a N/R). Hopefully that pair make it, but Midnight Shadow didn’t take up his entry in it last year.
Good post Noc
Good post Noc
same as you on at 25's ew, will wait till the day to have a look at the more fancied ones.
Have the 25s Galahad Quest and 20s al Dancer but lost my Pipe horse .
we all know course form has a big influence on this race so there are only four horses which are chase winners on the old course which is considerably tighter than the new course, they are Protektorat, Al dancer,Lalor and Coole Cody.
Good point re course form Cropstick.
Begs the question .... Is this course a shadow of its former self?
Looking through those left in,I see an awful of potential pace-setters,could be a right gallop from the off.
Cody and the Baron have won two of the last three runnings from the front,everything else in recent runnings has been mid div at worst,another angle to ponder.
Do the skeltons run both,SOTG has run some crackers around here,144 his lowest chase mark for some time.
Both the Irish horses remain,fishing for marks or intended runners ? The one lower down looks interesting.
PFN running two cast offs from other stables,not seen that before.
Just who gets the gig rider wise is another piece of the puzzle still missing.
Intriguing race this far out.
Begs the question .... Is this course a shadow of its former self?
Looking through those left in,I see an awful of potential pace-setters,could be a right gallop from the off.
Cody and the Baron have won two of the last three runnings from the front,everything else in recent runnings has been mid div at worst,another angle to ponder.
Do the skeltons run both,SOTG has run some crackers around here,144 his lowest chase mark for some time.
Both the Irish horses remain,fishing for marks or intended runners ? The one lower down looks interesting.
PFN running two cast offs from other stables,not seen that before.
Just who gets the gig rider wise is another piece of the puzzle still missing.
Intriguing race this far out.
Think Al Dancer could be interesting, course winner and r/up to champion case winner PuttheKettleon in the 2019 grade 2 Arkle trial chase on this course giving her 10lb on,goes very well first time and is running for a new stable (Sam Thomas), 3Rd last year and is 9LB better in with Cool Cody.
Quite a few empty boxes on the back-side,its like somebody already knows the nonners 
Just the Fiver wanting to back the skelton horse .... strange.
Midnight,Al and Zanza look the ones for early money,false or otherwise.
The dreaded watering has started too,which means anything from Heavy - Gd/Firm
Just the Fiver wanting to back the skelton horse .... strange.
Midnight,Al and Zanza look the ones for early money,false or otherwise.
The dreaded watering has started too,which means anything from Heavy - Gd/Firm
Not sure why Paint The Dream is 25/1. He hacked up last time and might be improving.
Competative as ever, and looks like a top renewal this year. Some thoughts....
Simply The Betts - Needs soft ground, tough off top weight.
Protektorat - Shortlist.
Aso - Too old now, but might sneak a place at a price.
Paint The Dream - Course form puts me off.
Al Dancer - Shortlist.
Lalor - Shortlist.
Caribean Boy - Should be closer to 33/1 for me off this mark, what am I missing?
Midnight Shadow - Shortlist.
Spiritofthegames - Shortlist.
Manofthemountain - Shortlist.
Zanza - Course form puts me off.
Dostal Phil - Mark a tad high, and soft ground needed.
Coole Cody - 4lb higher than last year in a better renewal, better on soft for me.
Up The Straight - Not good enough.
Belargus - Progressing but not sure he's good enough, Coleman not on board.
Deyrann De Carjac - Interesting at a price but course form puts me off.
Funky Dady - I'd be surprised if he is good enough.
Galahad Quest - Shortlist.
Farinet - Shortlist.
Nietzsche - Exposed.
Just the 8 on the shortlist.....
Simply The Betts - Needs soft ground, tough off top weight.
Protektorat - Shortlist.
Aso - Too old now, but might sneak a place at a price.
Paint The Dream - Course form puts me off.
Al Dancer - Shortlist.
Lalor - Shortlist.
Caribean Boy - Should be closer to 33/1 for me off this mark, what am I missing?
Midnight Shadow - Shortlist.
Spiritofthegames - Shortlist.
Manofthemountain - Shortlist.
Zanza - Course form puts me off.
Dostal Phil - Mark a tad high, and soft ground needed.
Coole Cody - 4lb higher than last year in a better renewal, better on soft for me.
Up The Straight - Not good enough.
Belargus - Progressing but not sure he's good enough, Coleman not on board.
Deyrann De Carjac - Interesting at a price but course form puts me off.
Funky Dady - I'd be surprised if he is good enough.
Galahad Quest - Shortlist.
Farinet - Shortlist.
Nietzsche - Exposed.
Just the 8 on the shortlist.....
my 3 to put up are
Galahead Quest, Al Dancer and Protektorat
Galahead Quest, Al Dancer and Protektorat
Protek now out to 10.5
Looked strange at the A/P stage ..... I smell a rat here.
"Lance Armstrong" according to Jim ..... This lot are well up in the Peleton,perhaps it,s just market forces.
Looked strange at the A/P stage ..... I smell a rat here.
"Lance Armstrong" according to Jim ..... This lot are well up in the Peleton,perhaps it,s just market forces.
aso an oldie but has run against the best and now off a mark of 153 having been rated 168 in the past , 40/1 7 places each way with slys looks fair ,probably past it and no suprise if lapped here but worth a pop imo.
also simply the betts gd course form had wind surgery 1st run for pumkin bryony up and 14 s for a saver each way slys 7 places .
also simply the betts gd course form had wind surgery 1st run for pumkin bryony up and 14 s for a saver each way slys 7 places .
Surprised last year's winner Coole Cody can be had at 18/1 with 6 places (PP). It might be a tougher race this time around but he was fairly impressive last year. He got away from them early on but once they caught him he pulled away again.
His run in the Plate wasn't bad at all - he was third just after the line there. And you can forget the winner (The Shunter) who had at least 14lbs in hand and a 7lb claimer on top - there's nothing like that here. Second that day (Farclas) ran competitively in two serious Irish handicaps beforehand and was somewhat unlucky in one - competing against Minella Times in both and one of Willie's who was handed 15lbs. Farclas is top class with a few pound in hand still.
Most importantly Coole Cody was staying on well. If he was a bit more prominent round the bend he would have been closer.
I'd be a bit surprised if there's nothing to beat him here but a run like either of those puts him right there. And unlike others this will be his big target - he has a good prep run over hurdles to prove it.
He should be prominent which is often key at this distance, at this level, on this ground. He'll need a few things to go his way (pace, position) to win it but he should be involved.
Proven on the track. Ground no problem. Last year's winner. Race a target.
18/1 with 6 places is just too big.
His run in the Plate wasn't bad at all - he was third just after the line there. And you can forget the winner (The Shunter) who had at least 14lbs in hand and a 7lb claimer on top - there's nothing like that here. Second that day (Farclas) ran competitively in two serious Irish handicaps beforehand and was somewhat unlucky in one - competing against Minella Times in both and one of Willie's who was handed 15lbs. Farclas is top class with a few pound in hand still.
Most importantly Coole Cody was staying on well. If he was a bit more prominent round the bend he would have been closer.
I'd be a bit surprised if there's nothing to beat him here but a run like either of those puts him right there. And unlike others this will be his big target - he has a good prep run over hurdles to prove it.
He should be prominent which is often key at this distance, at this level, on this ground. He'll need a few things to go his way (pace, position) to win it but he should be involved.
Proven on the track. Ground no problem. Last year's winner. Race a target.
18/1 with 6 places is just too big.
Such a tough hcp to work out and have a really confident selection. Going to have a small bet on Manofthemountain whose price is decent. I've changed my mind about Up The Straight, my initial thoughts were he wasn't good enough, but looked deeper into his form, he has potential off a low weight.
Good luck if your having a bet.
Good luck if your having a bet.
Cracking write-up Pjay ..... gl with him.
Just the 8 sounds about right GI.
20 Runners around the old course,guaranteed pace,where do we start?
Historically the top 7 have it all to do,thats not to say they cannot win,just my take on this tricky handicap.
Of those 7,Al Dancer is the intriguing one for me,been waiting 2 yrs for something to be added to his race-card details,alas not today either.Liked him from his novice days,he remains an enigma to me,a big run would not surprise me at all.
Whole host of angles,couple of these made the notebook last season.
Galahad Quest ... OR 135
Youngest in the field as a 5 yr old,sired by a top class french miler no less.
Another 2nd season chaser,just the 4 chase starts to his name,all with cut in the description.Followed him from his novice hurdle days,everything about him tells me he,s work in progress.
Impressed with his victory at Haydock,first time tongue tie,battling his way back after the last to beat a nice horse from the NR yard.His jumping was clean,efficient and much improved from his previous chase efforts.Under-rated yard yard in many respects,even when Ned was riding them,it was noticeable how well they jumped as novices.
His comeback at wetherby,another good test,was also very promising.Ridden very differently this time,he travelled well,threatening to pick up the leaders going to the last,until tiring on the run-in,a fine effort.Just how fit he was is the question,and is that 15 day break long enough to get over that run,his previous form gives us little to go on.
Arrives on the same mark,gives him a lovely racing weight.I wonder if the handicapper is beginning to see sense,penalising placed horses is not the way forward in my humble opinion.
Ridden behind the leaders,but not out the back,I can see him going really well,really likeable horse.
Farinet ... OR 134
Started his chasing career as a 4 yr old in France,with mixed results.Just the two starts in this country for the posh one.
For those like me into educational runs,look no further than his Haydock effort,possibly the most eyecatching debut I saw the whole of last season.
Unlike many of these,he,s a real hard one to put a realistic mark on,normally I can make a case on the figures,with this lad it,s all about potential.
Getting into the Psyche of trainers,trying to understand their thought process,is part of the fascination.
So she,s sat there early 2021,with a glass of bubbly .... "So where shall we start him off,I know...lets send him to haydock,on soft ground." One of the stiffest tests in the country,let alone for a novice.I could go on,you get the drift,is this the trainers normal MO?
Everthing in the form book so far suggests deeper ground.I had a look at the sire stats(Lord Du Sud),a real high class horse back in 2007,he looks like he went on most ground.The jury remains out on that one for this horse,the Sire certainly might merit closer inspection in the future.
Part of me was hoping he would not take up the entry,not unreasonable looking at his bare form.However thats the conundrum as punters,the form-book is a reflection of the past,predicting the future is our ultimate aim.
Stats wise everything against him,it may all happen a little too quick for him on todays ground,just like to see him put in a clear round and run his race,the rest lies with the racing Gods.
Gorgeous looking grey horse,the type to keep those dreams alive.
Too many dangers to mention,Midnight Shadow/Manofthemountain/Sotg should all run well.
GL those playing.
Just the 8 sounds about right GI.
20 Runners around the old course,guaranteed pace,where do we start?
Historically the top 7 have it all to do,thats not to say they cannot win,just my take on this tricky handicap.
Of those 7,Al Dancer is the intriguing one for me,been waiting 2 yrs for something to be added to his race-card details,alas not today either.Liked him from his novice days,he remains an enigma to me,a big run would not surprise me at all.
Whole host of angles,couple of these made the notebook last season.
Galahad Quest ... OR 135
Youngest in the field as a 5 yr old,sired by a top class french miler no less.
Another 2nd season chaser,just the 4 chase starts to his name,all with cut in the description.Followed him from his novice hurdle days,everything about him tells me he,s work in progress.
Impressed with his victory at Haydock,first time tongue tie,battling his way back after the last to beat a nice horse from the NR yard.His jumping was clean,efficient and much improved from his previous chase efforts.Under-rated yard yard in many respects,even when Ned was riding them,it was noticeable how well they jumped as novices.
His comeback at wetherby,another good test,was also very promising.Ridden very differently this time,he travelled well,threatening to pick up the leaders going to the last,until tiring on the run-in,a fine effort.Just how fit he was is the question,and is that 15 day break long enough to get over that run,his previous form gives us little to go on.
Arrives on the same mark,gives him a lovely racing weight.I wonder if the handicapper is beginning to see sense,penalising placed horses is not the way forward in my humble opinion.
Ridden behind the leaders,but not out the back,I can see him going really well,really likeable horse.
Farinet ... OR 134
Started his chasing career as a 4 yr old in France,with mixed results.Just the two starts in this country for the posh one.
For those like me into educational runs,look no further than his Haydock effort,possibly the most eyecatching debut I saw the whole of last season.
Unlike many of these,he,s a real hard one to put a realistic mark on,normally I can make a case on the figures,with this lad it,s all about potential.
Getting into the Psyche of trainers,trying to understand their thought process,is part of the fascination.
So she,s sat there early 2021,with a glass of bubbly .... "So where shall we start him off,I know...lets send him to haydock,on soft ground." One of the stiffest tests in the country,let alone for a novice.I could go on,you get the drift,is this the trainers normal MO?
Everthing in the form book so far suggests deeper ground.I had a look at the sire stats(Lord Du Sud),a real high class horse back in 2007,he looks like he went on most ground.The jury remains out on that one for this horse,the Sire certainly might merit closer inspection in the future.
Part of me was hoping he would not take up the entry,not unreasonable looking at his bare form.However thats the conundrum as punters,the form-book is a reflection of the past,predicting the future is our ultimate aim.
Stats wise everything against him,it may all happen a little too quick for him on todays ground,just like to see him put in a clear round and run his race,the rest lies with the racing Gods.
Gorgeous looking grey horse,the type to keep those dreams alive.
Too many dangers to mention,Midnight Shadow/Manofthemountain/Sotg should all run well.
GL those playing.
Farinet Scratched .... Makes a whole lot of sense.
Earlier next time please VW .... Typing is not a strong point this end
Earlier next time please VW .... Typing is not a strong point this end
Backed Al Dancer each way x5 places and Coole Cody each way x7 places.
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