Horse Antepost
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Annandale each way 4 places.
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Poetic Flare has had a busy time of it but still managed to go forwards again with a career best speed figure last time. I have him up 6lbs on his Guineas win. It seems to be taken as a formality in the racing media that 3yos improve throughout the season, but I have to go all the way back to Mark Of Esteem to find another Guineas winner that actually ran faster over a mile later in the same year. Like Poetic Flare, he was a pretty ordinary Guineas winner but ended up better than that later in the year.
I see it as extremely unlikely that any of the opposition could even get close to PF's latest effort. The fillies are a long way behind even with the allowance. So it's basically a case of whether PF is in the same form or not. I make him an odds on chance so the 6/4+ is a bet. |
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out of the 2000G he won,there has only been
2 wnrs,Poetic Flare,himself(St James Palace Stks & Mutaasebeeq). No winners have come from the Ascot race,either,although only 3 have run.He's up against 2 good fillies today and Tilset who has only ran 6 times and is going the right way.Not an odds on shot,to me. GL |
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I'm with Figgis. There's no Palace Pier in the line up, so I was expecting Evs at best.
Looks a very good price right now. |
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Agreed with Fig and Plat. Poetic Flare at worst a 50/50 shot against these rivals. I think the give in the ground will help on this track, making it that bit more of a test. PF might have been vulnerable to a quickener like last year's winner , but if there is one in this race, they've kept it hidden so far. I see a no-nonsense ride, prominent, sent into the lead 2 out and beating off anything that gets close.
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Not sure if that was PF's true running, he was lurching from one side to the other, but still, hands up, didn't think Alcohol Free was good enough.
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Neither did I.
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Thought PF was going to battle back once headed, but didn't have the pace of the winner so fair play. Very good filly.
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Alcohol Free did that well.
GL ALL |
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must be long time since a filly won sussex stakes, agree PF has been exceptional this year, he was beaten by mac swiney on this type of ground, dont rate the horse, PF still came in for F/C. this race deserved a thread of its own, sorry,didnt read this thread earlier, put the winner on my thread yesterday
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PF clearly not a top drawer miler - average guineas winner at best - I fancied snow lantern but was worried when I saw Spencer had the ride and sure enough he managed to find traffic problems.
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Looks a career best effort from AF, a decent performance but not form to go overboard about. Not convinced PF could be excused because of the ground. The Irish Guineas second may not have been his best performance but he travelled supremely well for a long way there and ran all the way to the line. Today he was hard to settle (sometimes a sign of a horse ott) and was all over the place when asked for his effort even before AF came to challenge. He didn't look comfortable to me and was plodding the final furlong. It may come back to bite me but I'll be putting a line through him for the rest of the season as another Bolger burnout.
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AF was 8/1 yesterday when i put it on my thread, it was the gamble of the race by evening time, favourite was stil around the same price, today just on the drift, probally factored into my calculations that PF might be ott(without knowing ), it was very good performance LTO, after learning on here last few years , those performances can be very difficult to repeat.
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wd
GL |