Horse Antepost

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09 Jul 21 22:43
Date Joined: 28 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 8,717 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
My narrowly top rated runner and last year's winner, Oxted, came right back to his previous best last time at Ascot. I actually have him improving 2lbs there but basically he's pretty much the same horse as last year. A repeat of that effort would make him very hard to beat, but there was strong stable/market confidence that day, they had him ready to roll, and as I don't think he's really improved this year I have doubts that he'll be in quite the same peak form this time, so I'm passing on him.

On these weight terms I have Supremacy only 1lb below Oxted based on his best 2yo wins. However, he was very disappointing first time out this season, and even though there's a case for saying he's huge value with the chance of him returning to his best, I do prefer to see sprinters prove that they've trained on from 2 to 3 before backing them, so I'll hesitantly pass on him as well.

I think Starman will probably need to improve again. I like Creative Force, backed him at Ascot, but I think both him and Rohaan need to improve even more. I was impressed with Dragon Symbol at Ascot. The RP comments say that race will have taken a lot out of him, possibly so, but I have him improving 10lbs on his previous best so think there's every chance he can back that up. I actually thought he was unlucky to lose the race, as even though there was no doubt that the jockey was at fault I don't believe it made a difference to the result. Instead of prattling on with the same meaningless "best horse won", I thought Murphy should've made his case around the fact that, whether he was personally at fault or not, his horse lost as much ground as the second, arguably even more, by wavering off a true line and Dettori never had to stop riding. Some pundits kept saying the ground Campanelle lost by being taken off a true line was more than she was beaten by, while ignoring the fact that Dragon Symbol gained no advantage by that, as he lost at least as much ground.

That matter aside, I don't think DS has quite the best form going into the race but he's the one who I think has the best prospects of repeating his best effort, which gives him a decent winning chance, so he's my bet.
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Report harry callaghan July 10, 2021 9:27 AM BST
A brutal betting heat this..

For me I have the 3 year old sprinters this season as an average bunch, something has nagged me all season in regards the evans horse doing what he has done, which has just held me back in rating them to be any good and basically his form ties in with a lot of runners from the age group with not a lot between them…

For me if creative force had run in the commonwealth cup he would of gone close along with his stablemate who I rate highly to be a good, however neither are a superstar so I’m just not having them at the odds available even with the weight concession. Today will tell me if my workings are correct but I have grave doubts any of them are anything special.

I have to start with starman as he just has that touch of class that draws you to him…he’s been unfortunate in regards going, as he clearly wants it on top…I wouldn’t use that totally against him at ascot last year as it was probably just a bit to much for him at that time of his career, his first run back just showed he has needed time…the only problem I have with him as I still don’t have him running that quickly but do believe the ability is under the bonnet…around 5/1 is fair considering his potential and I’d be nearer 11/4, however like a lot of races I do like a horse to have prepped so he will have to be every bit as good as I think he is to get it done.

Much to ponder and as far as I see the pace is in the high numbers here with emeratty Anna, art power and glen sheil likely to put the pace to the race.

People might think I’m mad but I’ve got art power running huge at ascot and think he will go well here and don’t think oxted is finished with yet either…the rag lurker garrus might just surprise a few

So I’m betting oxted ew as a decent winner, art power main bet ew and a saver on starman and garrus to win to really do our nuts…I might do a couple of quirky ones with garrus to get in involved in the exotics
Report Sandown July 10, 2021 10:12 AM BST
Long story short. No bet for me at this stage.

That said, my prices for my top 3 are STARMAN 4.6, DRAGON SYMBOL 5.6   CREATIVE FORCE 5.8. 

STARMAN is my most likely bet, if I play, because it represents the best value and the most likely winner.  As I've said before, I prefer to wait until they are going in these days.
Report penzance July 10, 2021 10:38 AM BST
willing to forgive Supremecy his last run,think he's
a big price (30s here & 16s+ with the books E/W).
Lucky Vega has'nt entirely let the Middle Park form
down with his runs this season.Went off the odds on
jolly when behind Rohaan @ Ascot.Cox was adamant
that day that he was'nt right.
Report Figgis July 10, 2021 12:02 PM BST
Quite surprised at the popularity of Starman. I don't have any figures for him yet even in the broadest Gp1 bracket, although I suppose with his profile you certainly couldn't rule out more improvement. I think him and Creative Force are underpriced.
Report Figgis July 10, 2021 12:18 PM BST
Apart from thinking Creative Force needs to improve again, my problem with him is I don't see his latest win as an improvement. I know the ratings firms have it as a better performance because he's gone from Listed to a Royal Ascot Gp3, so they were always going to upgrade him, that's what they do. But for me he actually ran a touch faster (2lbs) when winning at Newbury, where the ground was getting progressively slower. It was on the strength of that I backed him in the Jersey, where he went very close to backing up the previous figure, but showed no improvement. Looking at how the race was run you couldn't really say he would've performed any better if it had been back to 6f. So while you can never really rule out 3yos improving next time, they might be still physically improving from one race to the next, I don't see anything in his latest win to suggest he's got more in the tank.
Report sageform July 10, 2021 12:21 PM BST
Daft £2 on Chil Chil at 55. It keeps improving and RPR only 4lb inferior to Starman and Rohaan who are top rated. If all 19 run it will take luck to win.
Report Millerracing67 July 10, 2021 12:29 PM BST
Provided the rain stays away? I'd be sweet on Starman, had a few £££ ew.
Report Sandown July 10, 2021 4:27 PM BST
Dutched the front 3. Not very bold but...
Report Sandown July 10, 2021 4:27 PM BST
Dutched the front 3. Not very bold but...
Report Figgis July 10, 2021 4:31 PM BST
Well done Starman backers. I obviously underrated him as he looked a proper Gp1 sprinter there.
Report penzance July 10, 2021 4:32 PM BST
won that well in the end.
Report penzance July 10, 2021 4:37 PM BST
Report Howellsy July 10, 2021 6:09 PM BST
Interesting tactics Sandown but 1st and 2nd so vindicated by the outcome.
Report Sandown July 10, 2021 7:47 PM BST

I had very little choice because at the close, with the market moving in favour of DS and CF, I had them very close together, too close to go for Starman alone, although I still made him my favourite. Dutching them gave me a 15% margin on stakes which I was satisfied with, providing one of them won. It's not a strategy that I use a lot though.It requires a larger stake, clearly.
Report roadrunner46 July 11, 2021 5:53 AM BST
sorry, didnt check this forum yesterday, was an excellent run by DS, especially having his 7th run of the season, the money came for it, would of been in my top two for the race win, always like to stick with the group 1 form in these races, backed oxted who looked right back to his best LTO over 5f, did have my doubts if could repeat that again over 6f, starman had no doubts about that one. put them both on the general betting forum.
Report roadrunner46 July 13, 2021 10:25 AM BST
as i dont give horses ratings myself and i never know if a selection will win a race until the race is over, was wondering how would you rate the first three in the darley july cup, now the racing post have given a 124/119/119 RPR'S, having watched the race a few times, oxted was obviously drawn on the wrong side, he hung badly right from 2f out, wouldn't know how much ground was lost because of that, do think it would of gone very close to winning if he was drawn low. how the racing post have come to their conclusion is probably formulaic. would your ratings be adjusted due to how they raced and what happened in the race?
Report Sandown July 13, 2021 3:11 PM BST
RPR for Starman was increased by 4 lbs and 1 lb for each of Dragon Symbol,Art Power,Creative Force which is modest. Everything else was given a lower rating than PB . Oxted was given a 2 lb lower rating than PB.

Looking at the sectionals for the last 2f,Starman ran even pace whilst DS and Oxted marginally weakened. The final times were not far behind collateral ratings. Overall, then I would say that the ratings given were not unreasonable. Starman and DS were drawn low in 4 & 6, whilst Oxted was drawn 16.The winners of other races over 8f and less were also drawn low (5 or less) whilst the Bunbury cup result was draw 3,14,10,6. 

Was there a track bias? Possibly although I wouldn't be adamant. Did it affect the July Cup outcome? Starman didn't have a clear run, so there is an argument that he might have won more easily otherwise.

All in all, it looks a fair outcome, with the winner being the best horse on the day.

My confidence in Starman was slightly dented by the move for DS and the lengthening of Starmans odds otherwise I would have probably have played Starman more strongly than I did which was to dutch the front 3 in my order of likely finish.
Report Figgis July 13, 2021 3:44 PM BST
Personally I never alter a rating. As, for me, the ratings are supposed to reflect what actually happened, not what may have happened. Apart from anything else, a horse who has actually run to a big figure is in more danger of regressing next time than one who may have been able to run to a big figure under different circumstances. Obviously I would still me mindful that such a horse may have done better.

As to the race itself, after watching it I expected to be rating the winner up with the better July Cup winners of recent years, but I actually have him a few pounds behind them. So I have him more of a Slade Power than a Lethal Force. Nevertheless I still underrated him going into the race. So the question for me was did he improve or was it my mistake? Especially as many other people did rate him to have the strongest chance. On reflection I can definitely see it was my mistake, as the rain softened York card on his previous run had proved a bit problematic for me and I erred too much on the side of caution with the Duke of York result.

Not only that, but I also overrated Dragon Symbol a few pounds. His previous run being on another card where the rain was altering the ground. Such cards will usually be the most difficult to be precise about. I would like to oppose both the front two on their next starts, but finding something to oppose them with is another matter.
Report roadrunner46 July 14, 2021 10:53 AM BST
thanks for replies, makes sense, it was the heavy going( not always accurate ) in the description of DS last two runs, that helped me to eliminate that one, plus it was very unlucky LTO, as for starman he was well regarded last year after a hatrick of wins, backed oxted & starman in the york race, as it was a group 2 race, it showed class wise he had taken his form to a new level, plus he was now a mature 4yo and looked like he was going to be challenging in the group 1 races, and had only raced 5 times.
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