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26 Jun 21 12:10
Date Joined: 22 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 7,272 | Blogger: cryoftruth's blog
Looks a useful sort to me.
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Report cryoftruth July 22, 2021 3:29 PM BST
The 33/1 snapped up for the Guineas has long since gone.

She certainly looks a useful sort now.
Report Howellsy July 22, 2021 3:31 PM BST
Agreed. Ridden like they knew she was different class, and still got to the front too soon.
Report elisjohn July 22, 2021 4:06 PM BST
not even a market up on the exchangeCry
Report elisjohn July 22, 2021 4:12 PM BST
havent heard anything after this listed race, but surely the fillies mile should be next and we could be looking at odds on fav for mayGrin, that was impressive today
Report elisjohn July 22, 2021 4:15 PM BST
is there anything at york, doncaster before then ? or ireland
Report cryoftruth July 22, 2021 4:16 PM BST
Yes I asked for a 1000 Guineas market after Inspiral won her first race and still waiting.
Report cryoftruth July 22, 2021 4:18 PM BST
Looks like the May Hill is next.

Presumably the fillies mile after that if they persevere with her. She may be best on good going though as she does seem to like fast ground and I would not like to see her having a tough race on a bog.
Report elisjohn July 22, 2021 4:25 PM BST
of course forgot about may hill
Report A_T July 22, 2021 4:26 PM BST
the second could be an Oaks filly
Report elisjohn July 22, 2021 6:13 PM BST
16/1 on here on sportsbook, im luckier than most maximum bet 0.63p
Report SeeMoreBusiness July 22, 2021 6:47 PM BST
Got a few £ on at 16/1 Elis then discovered 20/1 at Spoilsports. Loaded up again. Very, very impressive imho. Did everything wrong. Still won. Given the breeding I wouldn't kick the Oaks out either. Be surprised if JG has a better 2yo filly than that tbh
Report cryoftruth July 24, 2021 9:25 AM BST
One downside to her is the trainer. Not that the Gosdens are not very good trainers. It’s just that they are not known for getting horses ready for the Guineas. Raven’s Pass and even Kingman somehow managed to get beaten and there has only been a single Guineas winner from the stable, a shockingly low return for such a large well stocked high class yard.
I am supposing they do not like to rush the 3yos, and give them the time they need. It would be irritating though if Inspiral ended up winning the Coronation Dtakes having lost the Guineas,
Report jamesp July 25, 2021 3:16 PM BST
I wouldn't wish to detract from Inspiral's impressive performance at Sandown (especially considering she still looked a bit green and got to the front too soon), and at this stage she does look to me just about the best and most exciting of the 7f juvenile fillies we've seen so far this season (and more 'inspiring' than most of the 6f fillies seen thus far, with the possible exceptions of Sandrine and Hermana Estrella), but it needs to be put into context.

As I pointed out on the Guineas thread, this Listed race rarely has any significant bearing on the 1000 Guineas, with the recent exception of Billesdon Brook, who managed to get narrowly beaten in what at the time looked a substandard renewal of this race in 2017 before springing a massive surprise in the 1000 Guineas in 2018. The placed fillies on Thursday were officially rated 89 and 90 respectively, with Sunstrike having finished unplaced (beaten more than 6 lengths) behind Sandrine in the Gr.3 Albany Stakes at Ascot. The RP handicappers have seen no need to raise the ratings of those placed fillies, allocating them RPRs of 90 and 89, with Inspiral given a mark of 102. It's hard to envisage the official handicapper giving her a higher rating than that for this particular performance. This leaves her needing to find about a stone of improvement to have a winning chance in an average Guineas. With better races to come, she will have opportunities to achieve a much higher rating and put herself into serious contention for the Guineas, but this is still early in her career and she will be tackling better opposition from now on. The May Hill looks a sensible next target, since it's rarely contested by really top-notch performers, as a stepping stone to Group 1 targets later on. Gosden's usual approach in the past with his best fillies has been to pitch them straight into Group races (such as the Sweet Solera Stakes or the Prestige Stakes) following their maiden victories, so it came as a bit of a surprise to see him target the lowly Listed race at Sandown, as it's not a race he habitually targets with his better fillies.

In terms of performance and ratings I wouldn't place Inspiral much above Joseph O'Brien's Agartha, who was almost as impressive in winning the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown on Thursday. There are a number of other smart looking prospects emerging in Ireland that are likely to contest key races in the coming weeks such as the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes and Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. For example, Dermot Weld's Frankel filly Homeless Songs, who beat Agartha by a couple of lengths on debut earlier this month, looks like she could develop into a smart type.

Having missed out on bigger prices for the Guineas, I certainly wouldn't be in any rush to take 16/1 Inspiral at this stage for the Guineas. Perhaps if nothing much emerges in the next few weeks, the 16/1 might be worth taking if it looks like she will have a fairly straightforward task in the May Hill.
Report cryoftruth July 26, 2021 9:18 AM BST
I have never much been bothered about trends like which races were won by what in the past James. Such trends tend to change over the course of time and races obviously tend on average to be won by horses who are the best at the weights over going and trip. Horses do not know they can’t win because they ran in the wrong race 10 months ago
Inspiral may or may not be a group 1 filly. She is though a slow learner. After her first race Gosden specifically indicated his intention to take Inspiral forward with baby steps.

This is the trainer responding to the needs of the horse. She was still green last time and did not need to be chucked to a group race straight off. This does not mean she won’t be any good. The previous Gosden habit of chucking his better 2yos into group company sooner is irrelevant to a green thing like Inspiral.

The May Hill has a roll of honour that includes Lauren’s, Reams of Verse, Midway Lady, Spacious and other useful ones at least. Because Inspiral will be further improved for the experience and the extra furlong she would be a likely very hot favourite there, after which her Guineas odds will likely be single figure, assuming the going is not too soft.

Agatha is a nice filly but she has had 5 runs already, and looks very professional and also quite exposed. She is 2 lbs behind an improving Inspiral who was too green to show her best either time she has run. It’s hard to see her improving past Inspiral but stranger things have certainly happened in recent times with fillies from Ireland improving from 2 to 3 in spite of having numerous runs and appearing to be lower than top class, before making sudden inexplicably rapid progress at 3.
Report jamesp July 30, 2021 8:18 AM BST
I'm inclined to agree with everything you've written there, cryoftruth. I went back through recent (last 20 years) May Hill results and reminded myself that it has produced its fair share of top-class fillies, i.e. fillies successful at Group 1 level: it has featured a couple of subsequent winners of the 1000 Guineas (Ameerat and Speciosa, both placed in the May Hill), five fillies that subsequently finished placed in the Guineas (Hathrah, Maids Causeway, Spacious, Ihtimal, Laurens) and no fewer than eight winners of the Fillies' Mile (including two trained by John Gosden). It's been targeted by Gosden before and is a much better pointer to the Guineas than the race Inspiral won at Sandown. Given the classy way she won the Star Stakes, Inspiral is likely to be a warm order for the May Hill and she will have a good opportunity there to put up an improved performance/rating, and this in turn would put her in pole position for the Fillies' Mile (and the chance of achieving an even higher rating). At the moment she needs to find about 10-12 lbs improvement to be a serious Guineas contender, but she has done everything right so far and there is every reason to suppose she can progress to the top. There is nothing I would prefer for the Guineas ahead of Inspiral at this stage, and the only reason I haven't backed her is because her current odds (12/1 best price from 16/1) are simply too short for what she's actually achieved.

PS Agartha put up a seemingly much improved performance in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes, and she may well be one of those slow-learning fillies that suddenly starts to make rapid improvement after a few runs suggesting she was nothing special. Her next couple of races (starting with the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes) will tell us a lot more.
Report jamesp August 3, 2021 2:07 PM BST
Inspiral's Sandown form could be tested as soon as this weekend when the fillies that chased her home at Sandown are set to renew rivalry in the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket. The Sandown 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th all feature among the 13 entries, headed by Wild Beauty (W.Buick) and Sunstrike (O.Murphy). Mark Johnston has a good record in this race (two winners and a runner-up in the last three renewals) and his filly Value Theory (by Gleneagles from a smart family), who won in good style over C&D last time, is an interesting contender.
Report cryoftruth August 5, 2021 11:57 AM BST
Yes indeed James. There really will be a clue as to the value of Inspiral’s last win in that race, provided of course that the going is not entirely different.
Personally I think Wild Beauty will take quite a bit of beating as her form even before Sandown was pretty strong.

I like Value Theory too and she is a definite likely improver. Just wonder whether Gleneagles has been a tad disappointing as a stallion. He was a superb horse and as you say was bred in the purple. He has not really had a group 1 performer yet. Maybe Value Theory will be the one?
Report jamesp August 5, 2021 4:51 PM BST
Yes, Gleneagles' best fillies so far are Novemba (fourth to Alcohol Free in the Gr.1 Coronation Stakes, RPR 114), Insinuendo (winner of the Gr.2 Kilboy Estate Stakes, RPR 109) and Loving Dream (winner of the Gr.2 Ribblesdale Stakes, RPR 106). He's also the sire of promising unbeaten juvenile Velocidad (winner of the Gr.2 Airlie Stud Stakes, RPR 100). He has yet to sire a Gr.1 winner of any description, but it's only his third crop of juveniles this year, and I expect he'll get his fair share of top-class horses.

Mark Johnston's filly made a nice impression last time and is bred to be quite smart: her dam is an unraced sister to top-class Verveine (Gr.2 winner, multiple Gr.1-placed, RPR 120). Quite how good she is remains to be seen, but she's less exposed than most.
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