Irish Derby (26th June 2021)

If Bolshoi Ballet runs in this he better hope
Adayar stays at home,was a bus ride behind him
yesterday.

it's got to the point now where we all just assume Ballydoyle has the Derby winner and watch the trials for confirmation of our beliefs. Nashwan was a brilliant Guineas winner and started 5/4 for the Derby - BB went off at 11/8 - what on earth made us think that that he had proved himself like Nashwan?

the Curragh should be an ideal track for Adayar

O'Brien has released a video snippet of the injury. As to when it happened, from the race video it appears it may have happened very early when Mac Swiney went up BB's backside. If it happened later it's difficult to tell when. Whether that was an excuse for the performance it is impossible to say. O'Brien had earlier said he had no explanation and words that basically amounted to horses aren't machines. Personally I don't for one moment believe BB would've beaten the winner anyway. However, I also don't believe that BB is really 17 lengths inferior to him and only marginally ahead of Youth Spirit, he undoubtedly didn't give his true running yesterday, for one reason or another.

Apologies, wrong thread.

Wrong thread or not, agreed!!!

so obrien finding excuses straight away, but what happened to japan and mogul as well .

How is he finding excuses when pre race he's said on camera they were very happy with them? The one where he does have an excuse is the Derby favourite....Who knows exactly what pain that horse was in and how the leg injury affected his finish (which basically was non existant). I think many of his horses are running below par. Maybe something is wrong as was the case with High Definition the week before the trial at York? Japan was btn 4.75l by Pyledriver last season, by 40l Saturday. There have been so many mysterious flops by his horses apart from his 2yos which have been running pretty much out of their skins from debut.

yeah OBrien having a terrible year apart from the English 1000 gns and Oaks and the French 2000gns and Derby. Needs to pack in.

I hope what AOB said about Bolshoi Ballet was nothing but the truth and not for commercial purposes. Nevertheless, I'd need prove eg run him here against High Definition (HD) or in The Eclipse (10f) a distance he'd won in. To me Bolshoi Ballet looked a spent force 2f out on that dead ground.

If avoiding HD here and taking in a mickey mouse race instead eg Gp 2/3 in Ireland I'd give no credence to his Derby excuse for Bolshoi Ballet after the last minute fiasco concerning the running plan of his 5 possible Epsom runners.

Adayar looks like he won't be running.
Going for the King George.

I seem to remember a stat before Derby that quite a number of recent Derrinstown winners didn't win another race. 7 out of last ten or twelve I think. Lets hope Bolshoi doesn't become another number on that stat.

I don't think Bolshoi Ballet got the trip, meself.
Probably could've performed better without the mid
race Knock which he picked up.Won his races leading
up to the Derby well enough.May still be a force
@10F.

High Definition (HD) has been installed 9/4 fav with Hurricane Lane at 3/1. Mojo Star is 9/2 and Mac Swiney 11/2. The surprise is Bolshoi Ballet at 8/1 indicating an unlikely runner to me or he'd end up in The Eclipse a week later.

I think HD is value on his Dante run given Hurricane Lane is 2nd fav at 3/1.

My favourite Irish Derby was when Steel Pulse won about forty years ago.  The horse had had a shockingly troubled run at Epsom and yet it seemed that I was the only one who had noticed.  Didn't win me a fortune but it was a good price, massaged my ego, and paid for a lot of future losing bets.   No more than that i have to admit.  It also taught me to look at a race with a more considered view of what went on in behind the winner.
Ravi Tikkoo, Scobie Breasley, as I recall.

After a consistent 2yo season the same couldn't be said for Steel Pulse's 3yo career. Although he did chase home the Brigadier once and finish a distant third in the Washington International, the Irish Derby was by far his standout performance. He was better than the reggae band though.

HD is even money from 9/4 here. Has he been catching supersonic pigeons at Ballydoyle since chickening out of the Epsom Derby? Looks like another benevolent renewal for AOB. French Arc post this for HD? Little chance with the presence of Snowfall and Love, I think, but more likely off to stud to preserve his value.

HD cut to 4/5 but now back out to 7/4?

HD is 2/1 with 'billy' after support for Mojo Star and Lone Eagle (Dettori).

mind boggling that godolphin dont run the epsom derby winner.....hes a 12f horse.

they probably think there is nothing to be gained for them - more interested in the KG then Arc the Lammtarra route

surprised that HD is so short against the Derby placed horses - missing Epsom is not a sign of confidence IMO

not on the exchange . shocking

biggest derby in europe and godolphin have no horse in it? strange one.

The control freak of Dubai has Hurricane Lane (HL) possibly blown away by High Definition (HD) now that the latter is fitter and focused; HD back into 6/4 from 2/1 (billie).

i got a bit excited about hurricane lane pre derby . theres nowt about him to suggest hes a champion after it . the price collapse was that it all fell into his hands on derby day .his wellbeing or status as a champion was very much in question as he was a big drifter in the market before the slow ground suggesting the yard didnt think much of him. however the public came for him cos they didnt read between the lines ............... just thoughts

biggest derby in europe and godolphin have no horse in it? strange one.


Hurricane Lane?

just the 5 runners for Aidan

Its their kin Derby and AP on Betfair since this morning and best they can do is £900 matched , what a shower .

AOB has nearly 1/2 the field of 11 runners as opposed to the Epsom Derby with only one. A distinct lack of confidence or is he being extremely greedy? The ground is on the quick side of good.

perplexing why theres no money in the market . 2k at 9.50 pm on thursday . a strange wall of silence

mojo star reminded me of terimon who only won one race after , given he was allegedly the second best 12f horse according to the result .  he and mojo may have just popped lucky . given bolgers claims macswiney must be taken on face value to repeat the form , so im on him . best of luck

A pathetic interest indeed. Then again it's a very poor renewal possibly for the benefit of AOB and Coolmore. The only exception could be the validation of the promise shown by High Definition last season; Mac Swiney looked a non-stayer or inconvenienced by the soft underfoot at Epsom.

mojo star
lone eagle

mac swinney has the best form here ,beat a gns and st james palace winner  ,is a classic winner a futurity winner been there done it battle hardened is officially  the highest rated and can be backed each way at 8/1 whats not to like ?

unsuitable ground might be too dry for him.....William Buick's horse finished in front of McSwiney at Epsom no reason why he cant do so again. Hannon's beat McSwiney at Epsom also (just a little off putting that its still a maiden).
W Buick is in top form and should go close.

The winning times today were all above standard indicating the ground could be on the slow side.

No confident opinion in this race, apart from thinking the most overrated horse in training, High Definition, is too short. Purely on ratings I have three slightly ahead of him. Admittedly there are doubts about all three and I don't fancy two of them, but I still think HD is too short.

Marginally top rated I have Mojo Star, but I'm far from convinced he will back up that effort. I'm sure there will be people queuing up to crab the Derby winner if he runs poorly today but whatever he does here it won't alter my opinion of this year's Derby. Mac Swiney is another I'm not confident about putting in a good run. In winning the Irish Guineas I had him merely running to his Futurity form, no improvement from 2 to 3, so was not at all surprised he ran below par in the Derby. Maybe he can return to form today but I wouldn't want to back him to do so.

The interesting one, for me, is Hurricane Lane. I said I thought he had a hard race in the Dante and was expecting him to pay for that at Epsom. In the event he did a bit better than I expected, as I had him running only 5lbs below his best. After the Dante I said Wings Of Desire came to mind, as he had a hard race in the Dante before underperforming at Epsom. He returned to form in the King George where I backed him but unfortunately for me Highland Reel was too good. I'm hoping Hurricane Lane can also bounce back here and, even though I'm not supremely confident, think he ought to be a shorter price.

Well played figg

wd
   GL

High Defintion looked like he stumbled badly in the early stages - doubt we'll see him again before the Autumn and maybe not until next year. Didn't give his true running IMO

no bets from me, another shocking performance by a coolmore favourite again, WD winners

Cheers lads

well done figgis good call

Figgis how do you rate HL compared the the Epsom winner?

A_T, I've got HL just a pound higher than at York yesterday. Adayar 10lbs higher. I reckon Adayer, assuming he's fully recovered from Epsom, would've won yesterday's race by about 5 lengths.

Apparently HD clipped heel with another runner after 2f totally unsettling him, and he lost the plot. A breather is in order and an autumn programme planned; St Leger or Arc perhaps. If so, wishful thinking, I believe.

It's becoming a recurring theme this don;t you think.  A Ballydoyle fav. for a classic disappoints badly and has been struck into or stumbled badly or badly interfered with early in the race.

this race needs a winner to go on and win more group 1's........recent winners have been poor.

It's becoming a recurring theme this don;t you think.  A Ballydoyle fav. for a classic disappoints badly and has been struck into or stumbled badly or badly interfered with early in the race.


to be fair you could see HD stumble as he clipped the heels of a horse in front - but the Bolshoi Ballet excuse did sound feeble.

coolmore still have the best 3 year old in training this year..........st marks basillwhatever.............hope he runs on saturday

Figgis, I make them broadly equal now. I'm giving HL a pound or two lower than Adayar achieved at Epsom. I'd love to see a race between the two as I think it'd be very close. You are asking a lot to think that Adayar would have been so far clear of these two, but it's all about opinions!

Howellsy, it was just a fairly standard Irish Derby in my view, a Trading Leather type performance from the winner. Adayar's win was more like Sinndar

Will we just call him "basil" brain dead jockey? 

Hugh Definition (HD) is being given a breather, and will be back either in the Great Voltigeur or a trial for the Arc. Is AOB deluded aiming him for the latter? Or is he still convinced HD is a genuine GP material? If so, in contention against Snowfall and Love?

I reckon Adayer, assuming he's fully recovered from Epsom, would've won yesterday's race by about 5 lengths.


Can't agree with you there , Figgis. HL put up a much improved performance on Saturday  both collaterally and on times (final and on sectionals)- and didn't lose a couple of shoes either. Don't think that there would be much between them if and when they meet again.

Sandown, fair enough. Personally I think Hurricane Lane's form has now plateaued and wouldn't want to back him wherever he races next, unless given a decent break. I wouldn't want to back the second either.

personally think Adayar is a much better horse than Lone Eagle.
Already easily beat him  @10F, would do the same  over 12F.

Adayar will probably not win another g1 in europe......

Appleby really doesn't rate Adayar, does he? Post-Irish Derby, he could have said, "This fella could go for the Leger but not the KG because we've got Adayar for that." Instead he said "Adayar will go for the KG and if that doesn't work out we'll take it from there." Words to that effect anyway. I just found it strange he should add the caveat. It's as if, deep down, he doesn't really believe what he saw at Epsom. I may not be as keen as Figgis, but I would have thought only a peak form Love could give him a race at Ascot.

Never has there been a better time to adopt the old adage "Believe what you see, not what you hear". AOB's comments re. High Definition and Santa Barbara are proof of that, even if said with the best intentions, ( giving him the benefit of the doubt). Appleby is in the enviable position of having two high class middle distance colts to go to war with and can target all the major middle distance races in the second half of the season, as well as consider the longer trips in the future for the one with the most stamina which is most likely HL.

Appleby really doesn't rate Adayar, does he?

Howellsy, but do you think he'd necessarily know in this instance? We're talking about a big, long striding horse who is going to need a fast pace to be seen to best effect. They obviously always liked the horse, as he started fav on debut. Then after the demolition job on his next start they had hopes he would develop into a Derby horse. Looking at his price in the Sandown trial it seems he wasn't showing as much as they'd have liked going into the race, where he still ran quite well off a slow pace. Appleby had said the Lingfield trial would hopefully show them what they had on their hands. Obviously that performance was a disappointment as far as seeing him as a possible Derby winner. However you analyse that race and try to make allowances for how it was run Adayar just wasn't the horse we saw at Epsom.

I'd say he just hadn't come to hand at that stage. Judging by the Derby market move, somebody somewhere seemed to like what they were seeing from Adayar going into the Derby. However, Appleby has said that HL still looked the better on the gallops, so let's take him at his word. Now that could partly be because Adayar wasn't getting the fast pace that shows him to best effect or it could be that he still hadn't come to hand. We've seen from many Coolmore gambles, such as Ten Sovereigns in the July Cup, that horses can suddenly improve a ton going into a race. However, there are also many occasions where horses don't show improvement until the actual race and, for me, Adayar showed massive improvement on the big day. I would expect his work to back that up going into the King George.

some people thought Adayar was slow,could'nt have
watched tha Sandown trial.Even though beat,looked
the best horse to me.
This horse won the Derby on merit.Tavelled well
went through a gap and went away from the field.

Yes guys, I totally agree with you - I don't think Appleby really knew what he had, hence the market for his maiden win and for Sandown, and the strange thing seems to be that he still wants to believe what he sees on the gallops (ie bit of a slow boat) even after Adayar won the Derby in good style!