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If Bolshoi Ballet runs in this he better hope
Adayar stays at home,was a bus ride behind him yesterday. |
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it's got to the point now where we all just assume Ballydoyle has the Derby winner and watch the trials for confirmation of our beliefs. Nashwan was a brilliant Guineas winner and started 5/4 for the Derby - BB went off at 11/8 - what on earth made us think that that he had proved himself like Nashwan?
the Curragh should be an ideal track for Adayar |
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O'Brien has released a video snippet of the injury. As to when it happened, from the race video it appears it may have happened very early when Mac Swiney went up BB's backside. If it happened later it's difficult to tell when. Whether that was an excuse for the performance it is impossible to say. O'Brien had earlier said he had no explanation and words that basically amounted to horses aren't machines. Personally I don't for one moment believe BB would've beaten the winner anyway. However, I also don't believe that BB is really 17 lengths inferior to him and only marginally ahead of Youth Spirit, he undoubtedly didn't give his true running yesterday, for one reason or another.
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Apologies, wrong thread.
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Wrong thread or not, agreed!!!
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so obrien finding excuses straight away, but what happened to japan and mogul as well .
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How is he finding excuses when pre race he's said on camera they were very happy with them? The one where he does have an excuse is the Derby favourite....Who knows exactly what pain that horse was in and how the leg injury affected his finish (which basically was non existant). I think many of his horses are running below par. Maybe something is wrong as was the case with High Definition the week before the trial at York? Japan was btn 4.75l by Pyledriver last season, by 40l Saturday. There have been so many mysterious flops by his horses apart from his 2yos which have been running pretty much out of their skins from debut.
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yeah OBrien having a terrible year apart from the English 1000 gns and Oaks and the French 2000gns and Derby. Needs to pack in.
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I hope what AOB said about Bolshoi Ballet was nothing but the truth and not for commercial purposes. Nevertheless, I'd need prove eg run him here against High Definition (HD) or in The Eclipse (10f) a distance he'd won in. To me Bolshoi Ballet looked a spent force 2f out on that dead ground.
If avoiding HD here and taking in a mickey mouse race instead eg Gp 2/3 in Ireland I'd give no credence to his Derby excuse for Bolshoi Ballet after the last minute fiasco concerning the running plan of his 5 possible Epsom runners. |
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Adayar looks like he won't be running.
Going for the King George. |
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I seem to remember a stat before Derby that quite a number of recent Derrinstown winners didn't win another race. 7 out of last ten or twelve I think. Lets hope Bolshoi doesn't become another number on that stat.
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I don't think Bolshoi Ballet got the trip, meself.
Probably could've performed better without the mid race Knock which he picked up.Won his races leading up to the Derby well enough.May still be a force @10F. |
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High Definition (HD) has been installed 9/4 fav with Hurricane Lane at 3/1. Mojo Star is 9/2 and Mac Swiney 11/2. The surprise is Bolshoi Ballet at 8/1 indicating an unlikely runner to me or he'd end up in The Eclipse a week later.
I think HD is value on his Dante run given Hurricane Lane is 2nd fav at 3/1. |
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My favourite Irish Derby was when Steel Pulse won about forty years ago. The horse had had a shockingly troubled run at Epsom and yet it seemed that I was the only one who had noticed. Didn't win me a fortune but it was a good price, massaged my ego, and paid for a lot of future losing bets. No more than that i have to admit. It also taught me to look at a race with a more considered view of what went on in behind the winner.
Ravi Tikkoo, Scobie Breasley, as I recall. |
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After a consistent 2yo season the same couldn't be said for Steel Pulse's 3yo career. Although he did chase home the Brigadier once and finish a distant third in the Washington International, the Irish Derby was by far his standout performance. He was better than the reggae band though.
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HD is even money from 9/4 here. Has he been catching supersonic pigeons at Ballydoyle since chickening out of the Epsom Derby? Looks like another benevolent renewal for AOB. French Arc post this for HD? Little chance with the presence of Snowfall and Love, I think, but more likely off to stud to preserve his value.
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HD cut to 4/5 but now back out to 7/4?
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HD is 2/1 with 'billy' after support for Mojo Star and Lone Eagle (Dettori).
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mind boggling that godolphin dont run the epsom derby winner.....hes a 12f horse.
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they probably think there is nothing to be gained for them - more interested in the KG then Arc the Lammtarra route
surprised that HD is so short against the Derby placed horses - missing Epsom is not a sign of confidence IMO |
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not on the exchange . shocking
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biggest derby in europe and godolphin have no horse in it? strange one.
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The control freak of Dubai has Hurricane Lane (HL) possibly blown away by High Definition (HD) now that the latter is fitter and focused; HD back into 6/4 from 2/1 (billie).
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i got a bit excited about hurricane lane pre derby . theres nowt about him to suggest hes a champion after it . the price collapse was that it all fell into his hands on derby day .his wellbeing or status as a champion was very much in question as he was a big drifter in the market before the slow ground suggesting the yard didnt think much of him. however the public came for him cos they didnt read between the lines ............... just thoughts
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biggest derby in europe and godolphin have no horse in it? strange one.
Hurricane Lane? just the 5 runners for Aidan |
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Its their kin Derby and AP on Betfair since this morning and best they can do is £900 matched , what a shower .
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AOB has nearly 1/2 the field of 11 runners as opposed to the Epsom Derby with only one. A distinct lack of confidence or is he being extremely greedy? The ground is on the quick side of good.
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perplexing why theres no money in the market . 2k at 9.50 pm on thursday . a strange wall of silence
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mojo star reminded me of terimon who only won one race after , given he was allegedly the second best 12f horse according to the result . he and mojo may have just popped lucky . given bolgers claims macswiney must be taken on face value to repeat the form , so im on him . best of luck
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A pathetic interest indeed. Then again it's a very poor renewal possibly for the benefit of AOB and Coolmore. The only exception could be the validation of the promise shown by High Definition last season; Mac Swiney looked a non-stayer or inconvenienced by the soft underfoot at Epsom.
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mojo star
lone eagle |
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mac swinney has the best form here ,beat a gns and st james palace winner ,is a classic winner a futurity winner been there done it battle hardened is officially the highest rated and can be backed each way at 8/1 whats not to like ?
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unsuitable ground might be too dry for him.....William Buick's horse finished in front of McSwiney at Epsom no reason why he cant do so again. Hannon's beat McSwiney at Epsom also (just a little off putting that its still a maiden).
W Buick is in top form and should go close. |
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The winning times today were all above standard indicating the ground could be on the slow side.
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No confident opinion in this race, apart from thinking the most overrated horse in training, High Definition, is too short. Purely on ratings I have three slightly ahead of him. Admittedly there are doubts about all three and I don't fancy two of them, but I still think HD is too short.
Marginally top rated I have Mojo Star, but I'm far from convinced he will back up that effort. I'm sure there will be people queuing up to crab the Derby winner if he runs poorly today but whatever he does here it won't alter my opinion of this year's Derby. Mac Swiney is another I'm not confident about putting in a good run. In winning the Irish Guineas I had him merely running to his Futurity form, no improvement from 2 to 3, so was not at all surprised he ran below par in the Derby. Maybe he can return to form today but I wouldn't want to back him to do so. The interesting one, for me, is Hurricane Lane. I said I thought he had a hard race in the Dante and was expecting him to pay for that at Epsom. In the event he did a bit better than I expected, as I had him running only 5lbs below his best. After the Dante I said Wings Of Desire came to mind, as he had a hard race in the Dante before underperforming at Epsom. He returned to form in the King George where I backed him but unfortunately for me Highland Reel was too good. I'm hoping Hurricane Lane can also bounce back here and, even though I'm not supremely confident, think he ought to be a shorter price. |
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Well played figg
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wd
GL |
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High Defintion looked like he stumbled badly in the early stages - doubt we'll see him again before the Autumn and maybe not until next year. Didn't give his true running IMO
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