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FOYLESWAR
02 Apr 21 07:26
Joined:
Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 13,940 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
a fair way out but the flat season is on us and looking for a bit of possible value at this early stage . tarnawa will have an autumn campaign and likely she will be fresher than most . she is top class and quite possible she is still improving she sets the standard for me ,love is ground dependent so risky as to if she will turn up , i think the 33/1 high definition has some mileage ,fav for the derby and unbeaten at 2 he showed a smart turn of foot to win both starts coming from last to first to win comfortably both times in the end looking as though middle distances will suit . obviously has to improve but has the pedigree connections and could be very smart . 33/1 each way looks very fair imo. tarnawa at 9/1 as a saver also appeals opinions encouraged good luck.
selection arc de triompe .HIGH DEFINITION 33/1 each way and TARNAWA 9/1 .
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Report A_T April 2, 2021 2:48 PM BST
took some 70/1 about Logician  - looked a beast as a 3yo but disappointed last year - has an entry for the Yorkshire Cup so at least seems to be training
Report .Marksman. April 3, 2021 10:07 AM BST
The form of Love's three Group 1 wins last year hasn't worked out at all with the placed horses in those races getting beaten in subsequent runs, reapeatedly.  For me, Love is a lay at any single figure prices on this evidence.
Report LoyalHoncho April 12, 2021 11:48 PM BST
Well researched and noted .Marksman.  I hadn't noted that at all.
Report FOYLESWAR May 13, 2021 8:51 AM BST
philomene is interesting unbeaten fabre filly by dubawai open to loads of improvement ,has loads to find but the potential is there 33/1 atm and could go for the french guineas this weekend .
Report unclepuncle June 6, 2021 5:26 PM BST
Early play on Cheshire Academy @ 33/1.
Report elisjohn June 6, 2021 7:35 PM BST
snowfall and adaire has to be considered at the moment, especially as probably softish ground in oct, nothing in the older brigade that looks brilliant , ( love vastly overated imo anyway), so well see what the diane produces, could snowfall turn up there ?, could pyledriver be a big outsider or even al assy ?,
Report roadrunner46 June 8, 2021 2:46 PM BST
st marks basilica at 10/1 looks a good trade?, been quietly doing all its winning in france, arc is a long way off and the horse does have a lot of entries,
could be a spent force if it runs, just too many unknowns at the moment, so probably better to wait. looked like their best horse last year and its done well so far.
Report impossible123 June 8, 2021 4:36 PM BST
I do not think he stays the distance in a proper Gp 1 race. Also, I think AOB has others better qualified eg Snowfall, High Definition and possibly Bolshoi Ballet.
Report .Marksman. June 16, 2021 1:33 PM BST
I thought I'd be able to lay Love at 8.0 overnight for the ARC, but I must have been over optimistic.  With Lord North out of the field, even an easy win won't see her shorten much.  I will keep trying to lay her because I've laid a few others in single figures and several more at less than 20.  (If Lord North had run, and been well beaten by Love, then Love would shorten and be clear fav.)
Report .Marksman. June 16, 2021 5:17 PM BST
I was wrong:  Now that she's won I've been able to lay her at 5.5 and 5.7 for the Arc.  Glad she was hard to lay at 8.0 before today's race now!
Report impossible123 July 4, 2021 8:27 PM BST
'Lay' St Marks Basilica at 9.4 here. I think he's most unlikely to turn up. Even if he does the competition and stamina (unknown) over 12f will be a bridge too far; 10f is his optimum dostance.
Report unclepuncle July 4, 2021 9:08 PM BST
Good to see the French Derby form being franked by SMB and Pretty Tiger.Cool
Have watched it back a couple more times tonight and have simply had to go back in and have another lump on Cheshire Academy at 27/1.
Report .Marksman. July 6, 2021 1:51 PM BST
unclepuncle,
I've had a look at Prix du Jockey Club after reading that and its true that Cheshire Academy ran a terrific race from a terrible draw.  He found himself right at the back, with a big field to get past, and did much better than any of those drawn on his immediate inside.  Good luck with your bets!  (I won't be laying him at this price)
Report FOYLESWAR July 13, 2021 7:27 PM BST
have cashed out on tarnawa,dont think her price will shorten much while shes in her box till autumn and 9/1 is too short on reflection have been backing philomene and cheshire academy each way at 33s and 25s ( thanks uncle for highlighting it ) and after watching the prix du jockey club a good few times again agree with uncle and marksman and is a fair price imo.runs tommorow.
Report gpz6316 July 21, 2021 10:41 PM BST
cheshire academy looked good finishing off as he ran through horses that had raced to win . gp de paris shows hes wide of the mark , well wide .
Report gpz6316 July 27, 2021 10:26 PM BST
hes got to make it there . adayar looks like the winner to me . wouldnt be interested in the price now . i think he loses in the sprint of the niel , but , runs well and then wins the arc . get on a few days ater the niel and hes sound is my opinion
Report FOYLESWAR July 27, 2021 10:34 PM BST
cashed out of tarnawa , looks like done me dough on high deff and cheshire academy ..........left with philomene each way 33/1 pretty happy wi that one tbh.
Report .Marksman. August 5, 2021 3:53 PM BST
Day of reckoning for Tarnawa backers! (Or not for those who have already cashed out)
Report .Marksman. August 5, 2021 5:25 PM BST
Impressive!
Report gpz6316 August 7, 2021 10:23 PM BST
it was impressive i agree . she was 20lb well in though and nothing challenged her in the market either . so its a maybe from me
Report gpz6316 August 7, 2021 10:32 PM BST
also reading through the form . a slow surface doesnt favour her , she only won the l,opera by a short neck . won the b.c on firm . the l,opera win reads very poorly now . i,d get out of dodge on the impressive comeback , if your a arc backer and think more about the b.c
Report impossible123 August 8, 2021 9:57 AM BST
I think it's between the 3 yr olds ie Adayar and Snowfall, but which? Their elders could be inconvenienced by the wfa allowance; the French contingent with the exception of the Japanese are much of a muchness, I believe.
Report .Marksman. August 9, 2021 4:02 PM BST
I wouldn't completely dismiss the form of Prix de L'Opera as she had the subsequent Breeders Cup F&M turf winner,  AUDARYA, back in 3rd.  And the 2nd, Alpine Star was only beaten a short head at York after a long layoff.  Tarnawa was probably inconvenienced by the  Heavy ground here, which was even worse than it had been the previous year.
Her win in the Breeders Cup, beating Magical puts her right there with the best fillies and mares, as Magical was a win machine whose success rate was only dented by coming up against Enable on occasions.
Tarnawa won the Vermielle really well on Good to Soft.
Her only defeat in the last 2 years was on Soft at Ascot, and that could be put down to the ground.
Imo, Tarnawa looks solid on Good to Soft or better.  No one knows what the going will be like at Parislongchamp, so I think her single figure price is correct at the moment.
Report gpz6316 August 11, 2021 9:20 PM BST
i wouldnt dismiss tarnawa marksman . in my eyes she has to prove that shes the same horse as last year . not done that by beating listed class . right now "my value" would be 10-1 -12-1 . if she  goes well in the irish champion or yorkshire oaks then wins the vermeille then shes a 6-1 shot not now though
Report FOYLESWAR August 12, 2021 5:22 PM BST
ive had a few shots at the arc cashed out my bets for no loss on tarnawa and looks like  i have done a bit of dough  on high definition and cheshire academy s,happens ! have been sticking the odd tenners aand scores on philomene and will continue to drip feed on her each way, philomene looks to have a good  bit to find but her prix diane run looked pretty good to me she was finishing like a train and passed around 8 horses in the last furlong and a half finishing 2nd but giving the impression she will relish  the extra 2f ,could be she was just passing beaten horses who had run there race but she has always been well regarded by connections and should continue her progress, well bred  and 33/1 and this race will cut up . love prob wont go if its soft or worse st marks and mishriff may go 10f ,snowfall has been impressive in her wins but this will be the acid test .33s each way will do me fabre won this race plenty of times and knows whats needed .
Report impossible123 August 12, 2021 5:40 PM BST
I'd not rule out High Definition just yet. If he runs and wins The Voltigeur handsomely next week he'll definitely be in the picture. But, St Mark's Basilica is extremely unlikely even if Snowfall and Love are ruled out as he's already cemented his standing over 8f and 10f. Also, debuting in a 12f Arc is commercially too risky and unnecessary.
Report layingisthewayforward August 16, 2021 10:53 PM BST
Just bought tickets on the France galop website. No restrictions on crowd numbers currently.
Report ElT August 18, 2021 3:21 PM BST
Let´s not rule out High Definition yet. A win in a Class 4 handicap next month at Carlisle and he´s back on track for this.Wink
Report impossible123 August 18, 2021 9:33 PM BST
Reroute High Definition to Cheltenham. His run today was nothing but disappointing. A change of trainer perhaps.
Report penzance August 20, 2021 8:49 PM BST
just hope that Adayar stays fit.Backed him AP
for this for a good pay day.Snowfall was very
impressive in the Yorkshire Oaks but would think
Adayar would've done that to the 2nd and more.
Only time will tell but cannot have Wonderful Tonight
or Hurricane Lane for this at all,if Adayar runs.
   GL ALL
Report impossible123 August 21, 2021 8:11 AM BST
I firmly believe Adayar is a better horse than Snowfall merely on the opposition they have encountered. I'd like to see both make this event in October possibly fighting out the finish too; Tarnawa is no slouch, wfa allowance the significant deterrent though.
Report impossible123 September 7, 2021 5:51 PM BST
Adayar has had a hind leg infection thus misses his prep for The Arc this sunday. No wonder he was a bit weak in The Exchange. Some barstewards with inside info had been manipulating market as usual.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! September 12, 2021 3:18 PM BST
Snowfall/Lurve
spit the dummy out
Laugh
Report impossible123 September 12, 2021 5:56 PM BST
I think The Vermeille has certainly exposed the shortcoming of Snowfall.
Report gpz6316 September 17, 2021 10:47 PM BST
i dont 123 . i think rh is not preferable for her and she was a little short of work as shes not fading , but , isnt so good racing on the off - fore . a bc filly mare and turf looks her best option .
Report gpz6316 September 17, 2021 10:50 PM BST
i think teona is the one to give adayar the most trouble . she has clearly improved for running on the off fore . different horse on a rh track
Report gpz6316 September 17, 2021 10:55 PM BST
sorry to be blathering on about left or right but i think the form shows that . teona is a lot better right handed , snowfall is worse r/handed . adayar handles both
Report kincsem September 19, 2021 12:04 PM BST
I was always a bit doubtful about Snowfall.
Snawfall: English Oaks: 2m 42.67
Adayar: English Derby: 2m 36.85
That is a chunk of change.

Unless the rail was pushed out added 50 yards for the Oaks, or the ground dried incredibly in one day, you have to think the Oaks was about Listed level.
Report impossible123 September 19, 2021 12:49 PM BST
I'm a late-comer to the Adayar appreciation clan given its ownership. But, his win in the King George made the difference. I think he's an outstanding chance here, if he's not too exuberant at the off; he was still keen early on in the King George.
Report Sandown September 19, 2021 3:39 PM BST
kincem

The RP going allowance difference was 0.48 secs per slower for the Friday which  accounts for 5.76 secs on top of which they ran 21 yards further in the Oaks (another 1 sec approx) plus maybe the same for the run across to the stands side, totalling in all for 7.76 secs which takes it to 2 secs in favour of the Oaks time. Roughly speaking.
Report Sandown September 19, 2021 3:40 PM BST
0.48secs per furlong I should have said
Report A_T September 19, 2021 5:11 PM BST
that can't be right - over that distance horses take 12 seconds to run a furlong - no way did one day of drying allow for the ground to be half a second faster per furlong
Report A_T September 19, 2021 5:27 PM BST
and presumably the drift across the track was to find faster ground
Report Figgis September 19, 2021 7:20 PM BST
I have the ground drying out approximately .40 spf from Friday to Saturday. So not too far from the RP allowance but enough to mean that Snowfall ran 11lbs slower than Adayar. Looking at the performances Snowfall has put up since I'd say that's about right. As even though we know horses aren't machines, etc, given the easy manner Snowfall won the Oaks I see no reason why she shouldn't have replicated it at least once since. She just isn't the superstar she looked to some at the time.
Report Sandown September 20, 2021 10:03 AM BST
Fresh ground is saved on the inside for the Saturday, which is why the yardage is greater for the Oaks, but it also adds to the ground on the Saturday riding faster, as it has done for years. Same with the Arc ground at Longchamp.

I can't agree with you Figgis that the subsequent performances by Snowfall prove that she was over-rated in the Oaks, not just by me I should add. It is true however that she has dropped bellow that level subsequently  (not at the Curragh) whilst Adayar (and Hurricane Lane) have improved. She may not now turn out to be the horse with further potential to rate higher but I have seen many horses in the past who have eventually done so after some disappointing runs following the initial very good performance.All is not lost with her just yet although as I have said on the WFA thread, she may not now be at her best for the Arc. If she is kept in training we might yet see her deliver on the promise shown at Epsom for greater things.
Report Sandown September 20, 2021 10:22 AM BST
Talking about Adayar, this week we may find out the state of play with him because most trainers will give a serious gallop this week to get their horses primed for Arc day. Not having had the benefit of the traditional Arc trials day to sharpen up the horse for the Arc 3 weeks later, this weeks gallop will be crucial for him, even if he has recivered from his injury.

Hurricane Run, on the other hand, needs to prove that he has fully recovered from the St Leger win where some feel that he looked as though he was tiring at the end, although I have to say that the figures for his last 2 furlongs don't really support that view, 11.85,12.88(24.73). The penultimate final was fast at 11.85 and for the final furlong he had the measure of the second and was eased slightly before the post.
Report Sandown September 20, 2021 10:24 AM BST
Hurricane LANE. (I had a v.good win on H.RUN so his name is fixed in my memory[Cool)
Report Figgis September 20, 2021 10:37 AM BST
It is true however that she has dropped bellow that level subsequently

It is also true that anyone comparing the Oaks with the Coronation Cup as a proper Gp1 race means Al Aasy also has dropped well below that level since. As I said at the time the CC was no better than Gp3 level this year. No shame in overrating a race, we all do it, but when more than one big race on a card fails to live up to previous ratings I think it's time to accept the original thinking was a mistake.
Report cryoftruth September 20, 2021 12:01 PM BST
I personally think this is pretty open. There is time for the going to get very soft again, but it does seem likely to just be soft.

This will not be a major issue for the 3 at the head of the market. Nor will Rabihah. Chrono may not like it.

Adayar should probably be favourite on form. His overall form this year looks very strong indeed and he will be hard to beat.

But I was taken by Tarnawa’s last run and indeed her preparation. She has been trained for this all season and a mad dash over the last half mile of the Irish Champion was unlikely to suite a filly with her stamina. Matching speed with SMB was pretty decent form and she may be still even better than she has shown so far. You could almost a career best. 3/1 is a skinny price and I would expect better odds yet. I hope she wins for her great trainer. If she gets a clear run and the usually necessary luck in running etc she is surely going to be a big danger to them all.
Report cryoftruth September 20, 2021 12:07 PM BST
Regards Snowfall, I do think that AOB’s horses have not necessarily been as fit, well and healthy as usual this year. Her last run was 8lbs below her best.

Big chance though that she will not have been spot on for the trial she disappointed in, and it would not be any surprise to me if she went close in the Arc. Many many times I have seen Aiden’s horses lose a trial before really turning up on the day that matters. Remember Found?
Report A_T September 20, 2021 1:11 PM BST
Tarnawa's been well placed by Weld but I don't see her as being good enough to win this race - and 5yos have a very poor record. Equally Snowfall has been getting less impressive with each race and the trainer's record in the Arc with 3yos is lamentable. Hurricane Lane may well have left his best at Doncaster.

My only concern w.ith Adayar is the injury - I'm quite happy for him not to have a prep race but I'd rather that hadn't been the reason. But still he's the one to beat for me.

But if there's no pace like last year it's open to anyone
Report Sandown September 20, 2021 2:43 PM BST
Figgis. Again, I reiterate that my rating for Snowfall is linked to the rating for Blue Cup who also raced up the stand side and not to Piledriver & Al Aasy. Blue Cup had an OR of 92 and was raised to 103 and then 108. My projected rating was 101.I have no reason to believe that I over-rated Snowfall.

What I will say is that looking back I may have under-rated Adayer a bit on the day and so that brings them close together but still nthing like your view of the difference.


For me, Epsom has always been difficult to rate what with rail alignments, different start points on a tricky track with variable allowances, so I'm not losing any sleep over this difference of opinion. When it comes to what really matters, which is price and staking, I'm not too bothered about who may be more right or not. In any event, times are not the major factor these days in my evaluations.
Report Figgis September 20, 2021 3:17 PM BST
Fair enough. Looking back at Topspeed's winning figures that day, and including Al Aasy as Pyledriver hasn't been out since, only Rhoscolyn has matched or improved on its rating. Not knocking Topspeed, once in print those figures remain, but I bet he'd like the luxury that we have of revising some of them later Wink
Report roadrunner46 September 20, 2021 4:03 PM BST
SMB is a big price on betfair for buttons, definitely has a chance of improving on its top speed figures if it can stay the 12f, just noticed adayar has 118 TSGrin one of the horses i think has a good chance of improving and has 128 RPR, hurricane lane maintained his 114 TS in the st leger and now back over 12f
possible it could improve its TS figure in the arc, had a couple more races, even though looks tough and uncomplicated, snowfall still strong in the market, as most on here, agree adayar has the right credentials. goodluck all
Report kincsem September 22, 2021 2:46 PM BST
I see In Swoop is still in the antepost market.Confused He is injured, and retired.
The Betfair market is all Irish and English horses.
Just an opinion, but don't the French keep a few good ones for this.
Until the field, and the draw, and the going is known, no bet.
Report gpz6316 September 23, 2021 9:34 PM BST
gb & ire vs french is 18-12 for french in the last 30 years , 10-10 in the last twenty years , 5-5 in the last ten years . that's surprising to me as I've felt gb  & ire have had the better horses overall for quite a while . so kinscem is defo right to wait to see what the French offer up . I remember having a nice win on rail link , the thought gb & ire is way ahead , maybe so in the context of the season , but , isn't so in the crown jewel !
Report Figgis September 23, 2021 10:02 PM BST
The state of French racing this year, with sprinter Suesa being the one exception, has been absolutely dire, not much better than German racing.
Report gpz6316 September 23, 2021 10:21 PM BST
yea i know , but , i was just making the point as it seems we are premier and the french are div 1 , but , the results in the race tell otherwise
Report Figgis September 23, 2021 10:35 PM BST
Treve, undoubtedly an outstanding winner, particularly her first win. I think their other recent winners have been pretty moderate by Gp1 standards. I suppose in ordinary years, or when the better horses don't fire, they have as good a chance as any, probably even more so when they have weight of numbers. This year, however, their runners don't even look as good as ordinary.
Report A_T September 23, 2021 11:10 PM BST
The French do well at the Arc because that's the only race that matters to them - their horses are aimed at that. O'Brien farms the European classics in the Spring but his record in the Arc with 3yos is dire - one third place I believe? Maybe he can only get his good 3yos to peak once?

This year they don't seem even to have a Sotsass or Waldgeist i.e. a horse seemingly inferior to the GB and IRE horses but peaking at the right time - Mare Australis looked like a typical French Arc-type but got injured.
Report A_T September 23, 2021 11:16 PM BST
If something like Rabihaah finishes in front of Adayar/Hurricane Lane/Snowfall/Tarnawa you'd really feel it's time to give up betting
Report Mister Westsound September 25, 2021 4:02 PM BST
I've got 2 x Granstand tickets for Arc day. Face value 65e and can't go this year, rescheduled from last year. They are e-tickets and I would see for £25 each if anyone is interested ?
Report Sandown September 26, 2021 6:02 PM BST
Hurricane Lane, Adayer, Snowfall all confirmed runners on Sunday with the Godolphin pair having worked well and AOB giving a buulish update on the filly.

So, can anyone explain to me why they think that Tarnawa is the right favourite. The plus point is that Dermot Weld trains and is bullish but here are my concerns. Her position in the market is based primarily on her run behind St Marks Basilica which was run like a French race as a slow pace until the straight then they sprinted making the form unreliable from an assessment angle. She has won at 12f but her RPR's over the trip are 7lbs behind her 10f form.She is a 5yr old and the win chances for that age  are much worse than for 3yr old. One final point. I know that the Dosage system is somewhat tarnished these days but I still look at the figures as ignoring them is worse than treating them as gospel. The fact is that her dosage figures suggest she does not have the ideal 12f profile. Her highest TS rating is 91 in 16 races (excluding her BC win).

The top fillies  recently to have won the race such as Zarkava,Enable,Treve and all had higher ratings going into the race.  Their BF winning SP's were (3.2,)(2.2,2.1)(15.2,5.5). Tarnawa is currently 3.7 . Her PB is below that of the next 3 in the market. Go figure.
Report harry callaghan September 26, 2021 7:18 PM BST
Sandown I often ask this question to people that say what you have just said.

So what price do you make tarnawa?
Report harry callaghan September 26, 2021 7:22 PM BST
I’m not criticising your analysis by the way, however what price have do you make her?
Report harry callaghan September 26, 2021 7:23 PM BST
What price do you make her? Apologies
Report Sandown September 26, 2021 9:58 PM BST
harry c

Adayar  2.8   Hurricane Lane 7.1   Tarnawa  7.1  Snowfall 9.8


I should stress harry, that I see pricing up as the most important assessment skill, and it is not fixed figure. My odds change by the day and during the day and with market changes. These prices are of close of play today. Backing the most likely winner is not necessarily what I play but in this case it will be. I will also play HL on the day.I will be against Tarnawa.
Report Sandown September 26, 2021 10:06 PM BST
One other point, apart from SMB, who beat her, what elite colt has she actually beaten in her G1's. Nothing of the calibre of Alaydar or HL. Even in her BC win, it was a 5yr old mare (Magical 15/8 fav) that she beat. 4.2 on BF is a poor price (shorter with BM's 3.5 best)
Report harry callaghan September 26, 2021 10:42 PM BST
Thanks for backing up your argument Sandown I respect it.
I've found this a difficult race to price up.
I'm shorter on adayar tbh. However I've got 2 market's on who I believe will run well.
The horse I'm struggling most with is hurricane Lane as I'm in the camp that said he didn't like epsom and his other runs back this up. He is the one horse I've not got a figure I'm happy with.
Much to ponder the next few days for me tbh
Report Figgis September 27, 2021 12:46 AM BST
Ability wise I would agree with pricing Hurricane Lane ahead of Tarnawa on these wfa terms, but in regards to which is more likely to run to form I would give Tarnawa the edge, therefore would make her a bit shorter than him. Good mare that she is, personally I don't think she's any better than last year, or at least she hasn't proved she is. However, she goes here after a race that was a bit of a farce, which I wouldn't expect to take much out of her. HL is here only 3 weeks after a race that saw him run close to peak in what looked quite a taxing effort. He might turn out to be more robust than most but as a percentage call I think it's odds against him even running to peak form.
Report harry callaghan September 27, 2021 9:30 AM BST
Just on Tarnawa and her figures as I believe she needs to be dissected after much argument against the mare and her being able to run fast.

As much as I get why people are against the 5 year old mare, it has to be questioned though her actual opportunities to actually run fast, she has copped so many races where the opportunity hasn’t been possible, however is this such a bad thing.

Looking at her opportunities as she was clearly a backward 3 year old.
Let’s look at last years races, she was trained for the prix vermeile and breeders cup turf
The vermeille was steadily run early before they picked the pace up from the 6 furlong marker, she showed a sharp turn of foot and that is her key asset.
The breeders cup she copped a dawdling pace but picked up quickly once again showing a decent turn of pace.
Leopardsown was still a good run against 2 decent horses and she was bullied in the race, still a good effort for me with this race in mind.

I can see why she is being knocked at the odds, I however am not keen to get her here like others, as I do believe a big run is likely, ok you can argue she hasn’t got a big figure in the book, however it isn’t proven that she is just a bully because she hasn’t had the opportunity to run big..
I respect her myself, I will say I do believe she wouldn’t want rain myself, she has shown a liking for decent going so a lot of rain would concern me with her.

On decent going I’d make her a nap to be in the 3 myself so talk of 6/1 would be generous for me. She is solid
It’s an open race to a point and adayars problems has to come into pricing the race properly, ok he could be even money had he run in the niel but he didn’t so that has to be factored into the odds you take imo
Report .Marksman. September 27, 2021 9:42 AM BST
market suspended at 6 day stage.
All forfeit stages and supplementary entry stages listed at the bottom of the following page:

https://www.france-galop.com/en/racing/detail/2021/P/QTk2a3hKNXNVTjFMbVJCWkplSnU4dz
Report A_T September 27, 2021 10:56 AM BST
says 14 left in with no Snowfall or Adayar - which can't be right
Report FELTFAIR September 27, 2021 10:56 AM BST
Thanks.
Report thelatarps September 27, 2021 11:15 AM BST
Adayar and snowfall will be added at the supplementary stage. Which is tomorrow.
I remember the same thing happened with Zarkava in 2008.
Report A_T September 27, 2021 11:26 AM BST
thanks. they are both in the entries prior to today so why do they need supplementing?
Report harry callaghan September 27, 2021 11:28 AM BST
Adayar definitely needs supplementing is not officially entered
Report harry callaghan September 27, 2021 11:30 AM BST
● ADAYAR needs to be supplemented
● CONTRAIL needs to be supplemented
● EFFORIA needs to be supplemented
● SNOWFALL needs to be supplemented
Report harry callaghan September 27, 2021 11:33 AM BST
Arc field: first forfeit stage

Torquator Tasso (GER)
Deep Bond (JPN)
Broome (IRE)
Tarnawa (IRE)
Love (IRE)
Raabihah (FR)
Chrono Genesis (JPN)
Mojo Star (GB)
Baby Rider (FR)
Hurricane Lane (GB)
Sealiway (FR)
Alenquer (GB)
Bubble Gift (FR)
Teona (GB)

To be supplemented on Wednesday

Adayar (GB)
Snowfall (IRE)
Report A_T September 27, 2021 11:34 AM BST
yeah I see now - the RP has Adayar and Snowfall in the entries - but Paris Turf doesn't havew them in the 101 entries. so thelatarps is correct they both need supplementing.
Report sageform September 28, 2021 11:44 AM BST
I can't see past either Adayar and Hurricane Lane. Not sure in what order.
Report kincsem September 28, 2021 1:02 PM BST
Looking at her form it appears that Snowfall has never faced a colt in her twelve races.
Report A_T September 28, 2021 1:22 PM BST
i prefer Adayar over HL - although Buick might have to make all the running unless Coolmore use one as a pacemaker. my worry with HL is that he has arguably had 4 hard races and might hvae left his best behind.
Report Sandown September 28, 2021 2:35 PM BST
Anyone who has ever read my comments on the Arc over the years will know that I have argued against older horses (5+) .

The last time I submitted the record was 5 years ago so I thought I would update it.The record overall shows that 3 yr olds have 8-10x more chance of winning than 5+. Those who look for flaws in the analysis will argue that plenty of the older horses are past it, and I will agree with that. But, this record below shows those older horses who were fancied enough to be at the front of the market (12/1 or below) and which were beaten. Some very notable horses in this list.

There have been winners aged 5+, 5 in fact,since 1975, but an interesting fact is that they were all longer prices.

The 5+ horses this year are Tarnawa (4.1) Chrono Genesis (12.0) Broome (120.0)


ARC LOSERS 5 YRS PLUS

AGE  5+ Arc losers                  TOTAL 25

Enable (2020) 9/10
Enable (2019)1/2
Order of St George (2017) 8/1
Postponed (2016) 15/8
Treve (2015) 5/1                 
So You Think (2011)9/2       
Shirocco (2006)11/4             
Daylami (1999) 4/1             
Pilsudski 1997)4/
Swain(1997)9/1                   
Opera House (1993)4/1       
Mtoto(1988) 6/
Triptych (1987)19/4             
Sagace (1985)6/10
All Along (1984)                 
Time Charter(1984)             
Strawberry Road (1984)       
Stanerra(1983)9/1               
Ardross (1982)6/1               
Ardross (1981)11/2             
Balmerino (1977)12/1           
Allez France (1975) 7/4       
Dahlia (1975)9/1               
Park Top (1969) 4/1           
Anilin (1967) 12/1

AGE 5+ Arc Winners  TOTAL 4
Waldgeist (2019)  13/1
Marienbard (2002 16/1
Tony Bin  (1988)    14/1       
Star Appeal (1975)         119/1
Report Figgis September 28, 2021 3:52 PM BST
For me, each Arc has to be judged on the merits of its runners. If Tarnawa is beaten this year it doesn't look likely to be because she's ott, more likely because she isn't good enough. Can I see her winning? Well if Adayar isn't in the same form as earlier in the year and Hurricane Lane starts feeling the effects of some big efforts then yes of course it's possible. I just think she's underpriced as things stand and I'd say the other 5yo mare, Chrono Genesis, appears to have a similar chance at a much bigger price. Obviously Snowfall comes into the reckoning if she can put her recent poor run behind her, but I think it more likely she won't.

Others who could possibly capitalise (or at least bag a place) if the better runners don't perform are Alenquer and Mojo Star at big prices. In my view, one who should be triple the odds is Teona, she's shown nowhere near Arc winning form. With Snowfall below par this year's Vermeille was very poor, can only see Teona going anywhere near close if it's crawl and sprint.
Report .Marksman. September 28, 2021 3:54 PM BST
Statistically I would be against Hurricane Lane.
It is well known that no horse has gone on straight from the St Leger and won the Arc, though admittedly,  Nijinsky did go close in 1970.
My database goes back to start of 2000.  In the last 21 years there have been 7 St Leger runners who ran next in the Arc, and they all failed to make the the first 3.
There have been 18 horses who ran in the St Leger and then contested a Group 1 within 28 days of that run and they were all beaten. 

Date        Horse                      Placing  Race
----------  -----------------------  ---------  ------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010-10-03  MIDAS TOUCH  GB                 17  QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE GROUP 1 3YO+ COLTS, FILLIES & MARES TURF
2000-09-16  CHIMES AT MIDNIGHT  USA          6  JEFFERSON SMURFIT MEMORIAL IRISH ST.LEGER (GROUP 1)
2000-09-16  ROSTROPOVICH I  IRE              4  JEFFERSON SMURFIT MEMORIAL IRISH ST.LEGER (GROUP 1)
2001-10-07  MILAN  GB                        5  PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE-LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES)
2001-10-07  SADDLER*S CREEK  USA            16  PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE-LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES)
2002-09-28  SHOLOKHOV  IRE                   4  QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES CLASS A  (SPONSORED BY NETJETS) (GROUP 1)
2004-10-02  TYCOON  GB                       3  JOE HIRSCH TURF CLASSIC INVITATIONAL (GRADE 1)
2004-09-26  DARSALAM  IRE                    3  IVG - PREIS VON EUROPA (GROUP 1)
2005-10-02  SCORPION  IRE                   10  PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES)
2008-09-28  HINDU KUSH  IRE                  8  IVG PREIS VON EUROPA (GROUP 1)
2008-09-28  BASHKIROV  GB                    9  IVG PREIS VON EUROPA (GROUP 1)
2011-10-02  MASKED MARVEL  GB               16  QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE GROUP 1 3YO+ COLTS, FILLIES & MARES TURF
2012-10-07  CAMELOT  GB                      7  QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE GROUP 1 3YO+ COLTS, FILLIES & MARES TURF
2013-10-06  LEADING LIGHT  IRE              12  QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE GROUP 1 3YO+ COLTS, FILLIES & MARES TURF
2014-10-05  KINGSTON HILL  GB                4  QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE GROUP 1 3YO+ NO GELDINGS TURF
2017-10-01  CAPRI  IRE                      17  QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1) (3YO+ NO GELDINGS) (TURF)
2018-10-07  KEW GARDENS  IRE                 7  QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1) (3YO+ NO GELDINGS) (TURF)
2018-10-07  NELSON  IRE                      8  QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1) (3YO+ NO GELDINGS) (TURF)

Process finished with exit code 0
Report penzance September 28, 2021 4:10 PM BST
in all fairness to User Friendly,she went close.
Only just btn into 2nd.
Report Sandown September 28, 2021 4:14 PM BST
Marksman
That looks like a large bias too, so HL needs to be reassessed, obviously, in view of that.

Figgis

There has been a faiir amount of rain in Paris and with steady rain forecast for Saturday and Sunday, Teona might not even run as the trainer has said as much. Needs fast ground.

Love is another horse best on fast ground.

The Japanese horses  rarely encounter soft ground so we have no way of knowing how they will run. Clearly a question mark against them.
Report A_T September 28, 2021 4:15 PM BST
what I would say about Hurricane Lane is that I believe him to be a well-above average Leger winner - in the last 20 years I would only put Conduit in the same class and before that you have to back to User Friendly.
Report .Marksman. September 28, 2021 4:17 PM BST
penzance,  I'd forgotten about User Friendly.  She really was a star 3yo!
Report penzance September 28, 2021 4:18 PM BST
El Condor Passa was 2nd in the race on heavy.
Report Figgis September 28, 2021 4:19 PM BST
I know Love has been written off as never being any good by some people, but I've said before I think the problem was she stayed still as a 3yo and didn't make the required wfa improvement as a 4yo. Since the KG third I have her going backwards further with each start, 6lbs lower at York then a further drop of 4lbs last time out. It would take a leap of faith to back her in these circumstances, so I won't be, but I still wouldn't be totally shocked if she went close. I have her KG third right up to her 3yo best but without the benefit of the allowances she was getting. She may have disappointed many as the fav that day but I still make that performance better than anything Tarnawa has acheived. If she could return to that form she wouldn't be far away on these terms.
Report penzance September 28, 2021 4:24 PM BST
funnily enough Waldgeist & Tony Bin both were 3rd in
the King George btn around 3L when over turning the
form in the Arc,with the jollys Enable & Mtoto.
Report Figgis September 28, 2021 4:39 PM BST
Yes good point. I've said before that winning the KG often requires as good a performance, or sometimes an even better one, as winning an Arc. The Arc carries more prestige and usually has a deeper field, but in most years a fair number of the best horses don't perform up to par in the race. Adayar's KG win is more than good enough to win a decent Arc, it's just a question of him being in the same form.
Report impossible123 September 28, 2021 5:10 PM BST
Who's the most likely winner on the present going, all things being equal? I cannot have Tarnawa despite her credentials of last season - she's no Treve or Enable, and her age. And, this year's renewal has 3 formidable protagonists ie Adayar, Snowfall and Hurricane Lane, all stay 12f very well.

I'd like either Adayar or Snowfall to win. The latter was below par last time; Hurricane Lane has stamina in abundance and will like the softer ground, if more rain falls.
Report brain dead jockeys September 28, 2021 8:17 PM BST
no hype about the japanese horse this year c genesis. she is a stayer......has won g1's over 11f and 12.5f......always runs to her best. not sure she has the class to beat this field though.
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