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TINnotaTON
10 Feb 21 19:15
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Oct 03
| Topic/replies: 862 | Blogger: TINnotaTON's blog
Always been one of my favourite races at my local track this ( pity to miss it this year ) and hopefully the cold snap will have moved on. Looking at the current weights, it seems that there could be at least a 12lb hike, with Bristol de mai, santini and yala enki unlikely to run. ( nicholls has stated a break until the midlands national ) That leaves ballyoptic on 11 stone and he is currently jocked up for the denman on saturday, providing it goes ahead. Should it do so, then truckers lodge on 10 stone 9 will be next up. Evan williams has stated today that secret reprieve wont run and will notachance turn up. ?? There are plenty of others of interest, including lord du mesnil, achille, smooth stepper and captain drake, but the one that stands out for me, is the honest and game THE TWO AMIGOS at 10-1. Only up a couple of pounds from chepstow and sure to on the premises each way, in a race that could cut up and has a decent pull with notachance from bangor back in November. Represents good value at this moment in time and i think he can better his run last year.

Best of luck whatever you play,

TIN
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Report TINnotaTON February 13, 2021 4:55 PM GMT
Yala enki and truckers lodge scratched from the race and as i fully expect santini, bristol di mai and ballyoptic to follow on Monday, pym next in line on 10st-9lb. 17lb hike in the weights now at least.
Report SOULDANCER February 14, 2021 7:37 AM GMT
TIN,

Good post, informative.

Wanted an e.w. bet in this but Ladbr, best price on mine,are not offering e.w.... Scaredy cats.
Report TINnotaTON February 14, 2021 8:03 AM GMT
Hi SOULDANCER, i actually emailed ladbrokes over this ( ended up receiving replies from 2 ridiculously uneducated agents ) and could only get this same answer. ( even though they were offering odds on the race, but the two of them just seemed to ignore this fact ) They informed me that they were awaiting confirmed runners, before offering odds. !!!!! I also noticed that CORAL were betting each way on the race, but the following day, they had removed the place terms. Cant for the life of me see why there is no each way offered ??
Report SOULDANCER February 14, 2021 8:28 AM GMT
TIN,

Cheers thanks for that, thought I was missing something.

They know it's gonna cut up and don't want to pay 4 places, other Bookies not so scared.
Report SOULDANCER February 14, 2021 8:52 AM GMT
LORD DU MESNIL 18-1 enhanced Win lads

Rather take that than 14-1 e.w.

Lord Du Mesnil seems to love Haydock as much as The Two Amigos loves Chepstow. Two wins and a second there. Ran 2nd in this race last year where looked the winner for a long way, slightly better off with TTA who was 4th. Ran from the front that day, hasn't done that this year I expect him to revert back to that here. Needs at least soft.

Scared of 6 but you've mentioned 2 that won't turn up. Scared of yours, was my bet in Welsh National.
Report TINnotaTON February 14, 2021 9:03 AM GMT
Yep, can deffo state strong claims for this, was almost my first choice actually as can see him running much better here ( if declared ) gonna be a very compressed h'cap rather in years gone by, where the likes of blacklion, ballyoptic and elegant escape have shouldered big weights. Was just swayed by the 10's for AMIGOS and can see it being 5-1 after monday. Will maybe have a few quid on MENZIL today.

Very best of luck with your wager.
Report TINnotaTON February 14, 2021 9:10 AM GMT
Also had £25 win boost with laddies at 11-1, probably follow you in with small win bet on mesnil ( rather than MENZIL ) Laugh
Report SOULDANCER February 14, 2021 12:15 PM GMT
Best of luck to you too but looking at weather forecast won't be on.

Shame.
Report TINnotaTON February 15, 2021 4:41 PM GMT
Been out most of the day and actually forgot about the 5 day decs, looking at them, most of the 15 likely protagonists stand there ground at this stage and it is looking quite competitive and RAMSES DE TEILLEE the new top weight on 11-12. Would imagine most of these running or at least a field of 12/13. 

RAMSES DE TEILLE    11-12
LORD DU MESNIL      11-9
NOTACHANCE          11-6
THE TWO AMIGOS      11-4
SOJOURN             11-2
PERFECT CANDIDATE   11-2
FAGAN               11-2
CLOUDY GLEN         11-2
NEWTIDE             11-1
CAPTAIN DRAKE       11-0
SPRINGFIELD FOX     10-12
ACHILLE             10-12
POTTERS LEDGEND     10-8
JUST YOUR TYPE      10-6
ENQARDE             10-6

Been a lovely bright mild day today, bit of rain early morning and as you stated SOULDANCER, forecast is for more, i'm only a 10 minute drive away and although the ground is on the heavy side, the course coped with almost 100 mills of rain before the last meeting, so fingers crossed.
Report SOULDANCER February 15, 2021 5:35 PM GMT
Looking too competitive for my liking

Notachance, The Two Amigos, Achille and Enqarde all still there.

Good to here the amount of rain track took last year, cheers.
Report TINnotaTON February 15, 2021 5:44 PM GMT
Notachance, Newtide, Ramses de teille, cloudy glen and enqarde do hold alternate Friday and Saturday entries, so keep an eye out for other running plans..
Report TINnotaTON February 16, 2021 5:16 PM GMT
Another lovely mild day today, 12 degrees and felt like summer compared to last week, ground described as soft, heavy in places, has rained steady from 4pm to 4-45pm, but has now passed and forecast band of rain to pass through quickly overnight around 4am, shouldn't provide to much in the way of persistent rainfall. ENQARDE has been stated as a likely runner, rather than at ascot..
Report nocturnal February 16, 2021 6:02 PM GMT
Thanks for weather updates TNT,always appreciated.

If you and Souldancer can give me the third horse between you,that will suffice Wink

As you say,tricky without them final decs.
Report TINnotaTON February 16, 2021 6:07 PM GMT
Just settle for the forecast 1-2 and dont be greedy Laugh
Report nocturnal February 16, 2021 7:03 PM GMT
Aim high ..... Superfecta Grin

There is one in there that has potential,if he gets the nod explain more nearer off time.

As for your lad,everything that is wrong with handicapping,in my humble opinion.

9 races since his last win,yet still 10lb higher.

He is being handicapped on his consistency,for a small yard,needs looking at.
Report TINnotaTON February 16, 2021 7:15 PM GMT
Yep, the dreaded consistency millstone, probably say the same for CROSSPARK if he goes for next weeks eider chase, wont be my selection now, but four 2nd place finishes after finishing P8P down from 146 to 142, now back to 150 and probably weighted out of it after trying his heart out on every run.
Report TINnotaTON February 17, 2021 4:08 PM GMT
Evidently had rained at some point during the early hours, but from waking at 7am it has been bone dry. and a mixture of overcast and bright and breezy and a couple of degrees cooler from yesterday. It is forecast rain now during the night and early tomorrow and although Various amounts of rainfall is forecast to come over the next couple of days, some of the real heavy pulses could be swift passing. or could fall higher north than haydock, but we shall know soon enough. Friday into Saturday looks like being the worst and it will be interesting if there is any statement from tellright tomorrow. If the track does take the rain well, it looks almost likely that it will be the usual slog and war of attrition turning for home and to coin a phrase from stewart machin's commentary's " running with legs of jelly " seems the likely scenario...

TIN
Report TINnotaTON February 18, 2021 10:51 AM GMT
Final weather update this today and it was actually bone dry outside at 7am, so hard to envisage how much rain fell during the night, but it started to rain from then and its really been nothing more than drizzle since and nowhere near as much as the heavy skies could have put down, probably 1 millimetre at most. It has totally passed though now and there shouldn't really be anything more than an odd passing shower for the rest of the day. Friday has forecast more rain, but it looks like the persistent stuff could drift west of the course and i cannot foresee any problem to this meeting now going ahead, as it should cope with what is to come.  Following the final 2 day decs this morning, a final field of 9 remain, which was a bit of a surprise, with NEWTIDE, CLOUDY GLEN, FAGAN, SPRINGFIELD FOX, CAPTAIN DRAKE and JUST YOUR TYPE the 6 not declared from the February 15th 4:41 post above. Very confident now for the TWO AMIGOS, 10's and 11's looking great value.'

Odds, 7/2 Notachance, 9/2 The two amigos, 5 SOJOURN, 6 ENQARDE, 7 POTTERS LEGEND, 15/2 LORD DU MESNIL, 9 ACHILLE, 14 PERFECT CANDIDATE & RAMSES DE TEILLEE

The very best of luck with your bets,

TIN
Report TINnotaTON February 18, 2021 11:01 AM GMT
One last point, favourite notachance is also still declared for the 2-25 at ascot on the same day..
Report nocturnal February 20, 2021 12:34 PM GMT
Going stick 4.0,soft/heavy in places on chase course.

Will it be last man standing,that going forecast suggests it might be.

Amigos and Mesnil can both go from the front,Ramses tactics will be interesting.

Get the fractions right,up there can be an advantage,that to me might be the key later.

At the prices gone with two,Achille and Potters Legend,hoping either can pick up the pieces late on.

Both pilots need to be on the ball,time and again jockeys get caught out being too far out of their ground on this type of going,don,t expect anything to quicken too far out,long old straight here.

Proper test of jumping around Haydock,both will need clear rounds to contest.

The last 12 winners have been aged 8 - 11yr old,will we see that broken today ?

Both 7 yr old are on the upgrade,whether they have the stamina reserves for todays trip,remains to be seen.

Hard to rule any of them out.

GL TnT / Steam ..... anyone else playing.
Report TINnotaTON February 20, 2021 2:16 PM GMT
Correct race assumption nocturnal, very competitive race and pity not many other pre race views, an electribe 101 song came to mind when i was posting in the week ( lol ) good luck with your play in the race..
Report TINnotaTON February 20, 2021 3:01 PM GMT
Well done SOULDANCER, great pick, hard lines nocturnal, almost, but we picked up the place money Cool
Report nocturnal February 20, 2021 6:08 PM GMT
Well Done Souldancer Cool

Dug it out under decent claimer,that might have been the difference.

Decent thread TNT,well done on the place money.
Report SOULDANCER February 21, 2021 6:12 AM GMT
Three posters, 1st 2nd and 3rd can't ask more than that.

Well done us.

Winner was so brave. Got in close to a couple of fences but me shouting Up! stopped him from falling.

So close, heart-stopping.
Report Facts February 21, 2021 11:52 AM GMT
Well done Souldancer.
It's a great feeling isn't it ? Nothing quite like it imo.
Report SOULDANCER February 21, 2021 4:48 PM GMT
Facts, would have been heart-breaking if he'd got done on the line after leading so long.

You know you're alive with these close ones.
Report Facts February 21, 2021 9:51 PM GMT
Agreed HappyCool
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