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FOYLESWAR
01 Jan 21 07:17
Joined:
Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 22,005 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
brief write up ,been looking at the classics markets and where better to start than the ballydoyle inmates, santa barbara is near the top of the market and could be anything but no value at the price imo ,a whole host of promising fillies and one i like is willow (american phahro-peeping fawn )just had the 3 runs in maidens ,weak in the betting on her debut she finished 4th .her next run she improved and finished 2nd at leopards then went back to that track and won her maiden well by 2 .5 lengths . bred in the purple with the right connections and open to plenty of improvement when stepped up in trip . 40/1 with billys may be worth a pop each way.
selection epsom oaks .....WILLOW 40/1 BILLS EACH WAY  .........opinions encouraged ..........stand back and stand by.
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Report liberator of the oppressed January 1, 2021 9:44 AM GMT
You noticed Victor shortened Santa last couple days Foyles is an omen a sign from above boom shakalaka.
Report impossible123 January 1, 2021 10:40 AM GMT
The price of Santa Barbara is definitely trainer induced; 10/1 is ludicrous, and 2nd had not advertised her form either. It's Indigo Girl for me at present; form and style of running; will be trained for middle distances, according to her (Enable) trainer. What's not to like at 16/1.

Of course, it's a calculated guess at this juncture. Let's hope both show up at Epsom - crowd or no crowd.
Report cryoftruth January 6, 2021 8:16 PM GMT
Sammarr looks a really interesting prospect, and is 75 on the exchange which is decent value imvho
Report giggitygiggity May 4, 2021 10:30 AM BST
I've backed DUBAI FOUNTAIN @ 33/1 so thought I'd better mention in case it pi$$es up in the Cheshire Oaks. I always stick to group 1 form when I'm backing antepost for the classics as you are just guessing with Maiden winners and most of their bubbles will be burst in the trials. Hopefully we will see a star emerge but if not Dubai Fountain could turn out to be the best of a bad bunch now she is stepping up in trip. She was one of the 4 that pulled clear in the best juvenile trial, the fillies mile, with the champion 2yo filly, the guineas winner and Indigo girl who I think will turn out to be one of the best of the crop but she looks like she is going for the French oaks.The other 2 won't turn up either.So unless an unexposed type emerges she doesn't have much to find and I'm expecting big improvement with this step up in trip as she is by Teofilo out of a half sister to Leoncavallo so loads of stamina there and so did well to show so much speed so far. She's battle hardened already with 7 runs which Mother Earth has shown helps against inexperienced horses. Anyway she's a big price so backed her and we will see tomorrow how she is this year.
Report FOYLESWAR May 4, 2021 12:12 PM BST
good luck giggy need some cover for my oaks pick which looks as though wont run will hqave a look later at the fountain .
Report giggitygiggity May 4, 2021 12:25 PM BST
It looks like Willow could run on Saturday at Navan or Lingfield so not out of it yet. Had a poor run first time out but as we know a lot of O'Briens do. Before that run it was around 12/1 2nd fav so it looks like it's number 2 in their pecking order so sitting on a great price if it can show some improvement on Saturday if it runs.
Report FOYLESWAR May 4, 2021 12:35 PM BST
havent had time to look yet at dubai fountain but by memory her form was very solid almost a benchmark for others to aim at last season as you say solid runs in good company shes interesting all right and tough.
Report giggitygiggity May 4, 2021 12:49 PM BST
Yep I'm banking on the improvement stepping up in trip with her breeding and being trained by Mark Johnston. I meant to say she is a half sister to Leoncavallo not out of a half sister. Probably won't be good enough but not always a vintage year each year.
Report FOYLESWAR May 4, 2021 2:54 PM BST
at the price 33s i wouldnt put anyone off !
Report giggitygiggity May 11, 2021 7:33 PM BST
I've been having little nibbles on Snowfall as well on here at huge prices..40s still in bookies and a little bit at 50s left on here. Horrific form figures but very highly tried and we've seen this before when O'brien gets loads of experience into them and they look exposed and then it just clicks and they come good. Unbelievable breeding by Deep Impact out of a sister to Found..a fast ground mile and a half could be right up her street. He's sent her over again for the Musidora tomorrow so we'll see how she gets on against the unexposed hype horses. A nice staying on placed effort will do so I can get a run for my money in the Oaks..might just be a donkey though and just trying to get some black type.
Report gpz6316 May 11, 2021 9:51 PM BST
i think well see the oaks winner tomorrow in the muisidora . the stoute horse is ready to roll ,  but , the other one    teona - garbage name ,looks special
Report gpz6316 May 11, 2021 10:09 PM BST
was if maybe found . send the pedigree to kids schools and get them involved in giving the horse a decent name
Report elisjohn May 12, 2021 3:16 PM BST
giggity, giggitty HappyHappyHappy
Report penzance May 12, 2021 3:26 PM BST
hope Varian runs Zeyaadah in this now.
Got a nice E/W bet on her.
   GL ALL
Report elisjohn May 24, 2021 7:52 AM BST
surely the irish 1000 winner yesterday will be supplemented back into the oaks
Report ali1959 May 24, 2021 3:53 PM BST
Heffernan and O'Brien said post race that she'd been tried at 9 furlongs already this season and at the moment a longer trip than a mile is too far.  She'll get stronger later on, so the Oaks will be a no go.
Report jerseyboy May 27, 2021 5:15 PM BST
get on divinley  quick
Report johnnyrant May 28, 2021 11:03 AM BST
2nd guessing Coolmore re. the classics is impossible. Just 1 reason its blanket entry, avoid telling the public its true intentions approach has killed the Classics.
Report jerseyboy May 28, 2021 2:26 PM BST
Diviniley was 16s when i put it up now into 10s..
Report penzance May 28, 2021 3:28 PM BST
may well win the Oaks but has only
won 1/6 races.Cannot see one piece
of form that says this is an Oaks
filly.
Report LoyalHoncho May 28, 2021 8:16 PM BST
G/l penzance.  Any chance do you think of Varian winning both classics at Epsom?  Third Realm needs to improve I suppose and the going is a factor but who knows.  Varian, Appleby, Balding - any of these could make a breakthrough very soon.
Report penzance May 28, 2021 8:32 PM BST
I think Third Realm's got a realistic chance.
Adayar was as short as 12/1 before that trial.
He wins like the winner,he's put in around the
7 & 8/1 mark imo.Still unbeaten and could be
underestimated.(Adayar looks a N/R,AP E/W
double with the Varian filly.Hope to just get
a run for me dough now).
   GL
Report penzance May 28, 2021 8:39 PM BST
Still unbeaten 'this season'.
sorry.
Report elisjohn May 29, 2021 10:20 AM BST
is 5/6 day decs today ?
Report elisjohn May 29, 2021 12:03 PM BST
suspended, so today then
Report kavvie May 30, 2021 7:10 PM BST
i better mention the winner as i dont see much about her here...teona.
Report gpz6316 May 30, 2021 10:59 PM BST
i think you got the wrong one kavvie . was very taken with teona at newcastle , but , shes complicated and lacks experience as does the favourite sb . my moneys on zeyaadah who has looked really good and i dig her unfashionable breeding which makes her less fancied than she should be , she has experience and is progressive,  lost nothing in defeat lto and is same price as teona without the hype . that gets me listening
Report kavvie May 31, 2021 10:09 AM BST
yep all about opinions and you may be right. teona done a piece of work at epsom. i was told it went very very well..david egan is very impressed and thinks shes a "beast" . jockeys are often the worst judges but ill take my chances..im on at 8s ew
Report impossible123 May 31, 2021 9:52 PM BST
I think if the Santa Barbara stays nothing will get within a length of her at the business end. I hope she gets a bit of luck in running, and Moore is wise to the task. However, I'd much prefer Dettori at the helm.
Report differentdrum May 31, 2021 10:00 PM BST
Leaving aside whether she is good enough Santa Barbara displayed a high head carriage on debut and as far as I could see it was pretty awful again at Newmarket. Not much has been made of it, but I wouldn't want her in a battle.
Report differentdrum May 31, 2021 10:01 PM BST
Is Aidan intending to run all his entries?
Report Ramruma June 2, 2021 8:11 AM BST
Noon Star out.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/notable-non-runner-noon-star-shakes-up-the-oaks-betting-before-declarations/492953

I'm off to tear up my antepost slip. Cry
Report paulo47 June 2, 2021 11:45 AM BST
It is interesting that whatever ones opinion of Sherbert Lemon and the -ves of that trial (time/pace/ground ) , the three horses behind her are all running .
Report impossible123 June 2, 2021 4:59 PM BST
On the surface this year's renewal looks like an open contest. The Musidora was certainly "nicked" by Moore (Snowfall) as the other jockeys left their riding brain in the toilet; Cheshire Oaks was much of a muchness. The two with form, and could "improve" are Santa Barbara and Saffron Beach.

My preference is for Santa Barbara as a step-up in distance could be the key to her untapped potential; 3/1 is an ok price too, I think.
Report DeSSieReborn June 3, 2021 2:01 PM BST
jane chap-hyam wanted to draw 4 or 5 for hers, its drawn 7. two of a p obriens are in 4 and 5. Opinions please?
Report penzance June 3, 2021 2:18 PM BST
thought Zeyaadah had 7,not wearing me glasses.
She's in 1 like Adayar in the Derby.
My 2 A/Post bets.
Report jamesp June 4, 2021 12:37 AM BST
If it's down to a choice between Santa Barbara and Saffron Beach, I'd much rather be on Jane Chapple-Hyam's filly at 12/1, especially since she finished in front of the other filly in the Guineas. Yes there's a doubt about the mile and a half trip, but at four times the odds it must be worth taking the chance.
Report FELTFAIR June 4, 2021 9:55 AM BST
Backed Santa Barbara and Dubai Fountain (4 places).
Report Millerracing67 June 4, 2021 1:53 PM BST
With the rain falling, on watered ground, I've had a few nibbles on Divinely 24.0 & 3.9pl (4pls) 
Looks wide open to me, she'll like a bit of ease & will stay well.
Report Millerracing67 June 4, 2021 2:20 PM BST
Adding the same on Dubai Fountain 9.0 & 2.7 (4pls)
For the same reasons, rain & stays well.
Gd luck all.
Report Figgis June 4, 2021 3:40 PM BST
Just been reading one of the Timeform previews say this race has plenty of depth. Well, maybe in numbers but I just don't see it like that as far as quality goes. The only form even close to Oaks winning standard was the Guineas. This year's Guineas might not have been up with the best in regards to fillies likely to go on from the race, but as a race on its own it wasn't too far behind average standard, the time was decent. Saffron Beach finished best there but I think she ran the race of her life that day and I just don't fancy her to repeat that.

There has been talk of Santa Barbara improving over the distance, but in my experience very few horses actually get faster over longer distances, it's that decent opposition gets thinner. That's why a placed Guineas run has often been good enough to win an Oaks when replicated. I think Santa Barbara has already run very close to an average Oaks winning mark and as long as she doesn't recoil from being thrown in the deep end so soon she has more like an evens chance today. At least that was my thinking before the ground turned soft. I can't be sure that the ground won't hinder her chances, but my guess is if we get a good pace it might even exaggerate her superiority, so she's my only bet.
Report roadrunner46 June 4, 2021 4:05 PM BST
think the favourite will win and saffron beach to chase it home IF it stays the trip
Report A_T June 4, 2021 4:08 PM BST
Teona for me
Report Steamship June 4, 2021 4:24 PM BST
Sherbet Lemon
Willow
Mystery Angel
All just for an interest
Report impossible123 June 4, 2021 4:43 PM BST
Snowfall went by a MILE; Santa Barbara ran out of puff.
Report unclepuncle June 4, 2021 4:43 PM BST
Great shout Giggity.Cool
Report Whippin Piccadilly June 4, 2021 4:46 PM BST
Another solid run from Mystery Angel. Ben will get a few days for sure though.
Report Figgis June 4, 2021 4:46 PM BST
Well done Snowfall backers. Sometimes you look back and think how did I miss that but no I never rated the York win or her form before that. Well done those that did.
Report penzance June 4, 2021 4:48 PM BST
the poster gigity
  LaughLaugh
top notch
   GL
Report impossible123 June 4, 2021 4:50 PM BST
Well done 'giggity2'! I hope you collect your winning in a wheelbarrow.
Report roadrunner46 June 4, 2021 4:55 PM BST
ryan moore done a good job in last place as usual, they really are playing tricks on the betting public with the way they are campaigning there horses these days, their approach is too completely rob the punters, bookies must be laughing their heads off.
Report LoyalHoncho June 4, 2021 5:01 PM BST
Hot giggity!
Report harry callaghan June 4, 2021 5:41 PM BST
Well played giggity pal...

Shame you didn’t slip it in your 10 to follow squad...still I’ll take it...sweet dreamsGrin
Report LoyalHoncho June 4, 2021 6:29 PM BST
Mind you, you have to ask just who is having who away at Ballydoyle?
Ryan Moore, if he has any self-respect, must feel utterly humiliated.
Someone surely told him that Santa Barbara was the one.  beaten 21+.
Maybe it's their way of getting rid of him.???
Report elisjohn June 4, 2021 8:44 PM BST
thought that the move santa barbara did from the back to get within a length off the winner just outside the 2 marker was awesome  , didnt stay did she , watch her over 10 furlongs .
Report impossible123 June 4, 2021 8:59 PM BST
Santa Barbara --> Prix De Diane on 20th June?
Report elisjohn June 4, 2021 9:02 PM BST
just hope that last 2 furlongs today , wont have left its mark, running on empty
Report LoyalHoncho June 4, 2021 9:04 PM BST
Wow!  I didn't think she'd stay ten personally.  O' Brien - for what it's worth - says she's very fast in her work.  I remember Sir Michael running Ajdal, a Northern Dancer, in a Derby.  Unsuccessfully.  A while later it won the July Cup. the Hills Sprint then the Vernons Sprint!  I don't know if she's a sprint type or not but I couldn't see her staying anything beyond a mile personally.
Report elisjohn June 4, 2021 9:09 PM BST
remember ajdal well.won the dewhurst from shady heights, ( if i remember right),
Report elisjohn June 4, 2021 9:14 PM BST
if i was r moore, and acclaimed by the press and media as greatest jockey living Laugh, and being upstaged time after time by dettori, id be doing my nuts in , looks like moore likes the dollar more than anything , imagine lester riding for this lotLaugh
Report penzance June 4, 2021 9:22 PM BST
Piggott never had that many to choose from.
Report elisjohn June 4, 2021 9:25 PM BST
he did you know, piggott had a choice of all horses in training id say GrinWink
Report LoyalHoncho June 4, 2021 10:43 PM BST
Agreed penzance but he drove Vincent mad over galloping them, trying to find out which was the faster.
Report impossible123 June 5, 2021 4:06 PM BST
Piggott knew his horsey onions.
Report Figgis June 6, 2021 9:04 PM BST
After Enable won the Oaks I said it was the fastest Oaks winning performance I'd seen. I thought it would probably be a long wait until I saw a similar win in the race, but only three years later I rated Love's win on par. However, it still remains to be seen if Love will go on from that as a 4yo. I have read Timeform comments putting Snowfall's win in the same bracket. I admit to underestimating Snowfall prior to the Oaks, but I still have no hesitation in saying Snowfall's win isn't even within half a stone of what those two fillies achieved in their victories, I have her 8lbs below them.

It was a good performance, an up to scratch one, but no better than that. She trounced the field, but a lot of them weren't very good, and those that weren't that bad either didn't get the trip or didn't act on the ground, or both.

I wanted a better position, but they went off way too fast – everybody was fighting to get in the first three, so I let them get on with it.

Dettori's words, and he's spot on. Sure, the best filly won and no matter how the race had been run the result wouldn't have changed. However, her superiority was greatly exaggerated by the conditions. If she holds that form then she's likely to keep defeating her own sex, but even with the favourable weight allowance she'll struggle in all age Gp1s that feature genuine Gp1 horses.
Report FOYLESWAR June 6, 2021 10:03 PM BST
great call gigity very  well done
Report elisjohn June 7, 2021 7:27 AM BST
figgis , is there really genuine group1 horses out there any more ?
Report elisjohn June 7, 2021 7:28 AM BST
yes gigity, great call on the muisidora and this
Report A_T June 7, 2021 8:16 AM BST
really genuine group1 horses out there any more ?

times aren't getting slower
Report Figgis June 7, 2021 10:07 AM BST
figgis , is there really genuine group1 horses out there any more ?

Yes.
Report A_T June 7, 2021 11:00 AM BST
Figgis what did you make of the Derby time? looked pretty quick to me when compared to other performances over the day. Suggests Adayar might be quite fast?
Report Figgis June 7, 2021 11:30 AM BST
A_T, well I take the opposite view with him (compared to the Oaks winner), he's a class act. I'll stick with Derby performances this century, so as not to get embroiled in pointless debates about horses from other eras. I have him up with the four previous best Derby winning performances since 2000. 3lbs behind Golden Horn's win, 2lbs behind Authorized, 1lb behind Workforce and level with Sinndar. Admittedly he wasn't on my radar going into the Derby, but that often leads to a more accurate reading of the race, as there are no preconceived ideas why I might overrate him.

It's not just about how fast they ran, it's how they ran fast. Authorized and Workforce were both beaten straight after the Derby before returning to form later. It's easy to say with hindsight, but even at the time I thought that while both horses won very decisively, I wouldn't say they won comfortably. They were both fully stretched and it wasn't a total surprise they needed a little more time to recover. For me, this was the most comfortable winner since Sea The Stars (whose Derby was too slowly run to give a true figure). Just because I thought he won fairly comfortably doesn't mean I think he will improve again, but it gives him a better chance of making a quick recovery.

Three of those four horses mentioned went on to win an Arc. So could be some interesting punting times ahead, especially as the general view seems to be that this year's Derby was rubbish and won by a plodder Wink
Report LoyalHoncho June 7, 2021 2:59 PM BST
For the briefest of brief moments I hoped that the runner up was going to match the winner, when the commentator over-stated the strength of his run - I had slipped a spare fiver on very am that day at 150.0, so ridiculous was the price on offer - but is the fact that a rag outsider ended up the main opposer at the business end of any significance in grading down the win?  Serious question.  I admired the winner's performance but did he beat very much?  Somehow I doubt it.  As for the doubts regarding the in-running damage to the favourite my take is this.  When/if Bolshoi Ballet ever wins again we can all afford not to be on.
Report Sandown June 7, 2021 3:12 PM BST
With you Figgis on your opinion of Adayar as he ran to a top form figure backed up on the clock and with a strong finishing sectional so I can rate him higher than the RPR of 123. How does 129 grab you?

That said, in a match with Snowfall at 12f I would have to go with the filly, especially in receipt of the usual f&m allowance. The RPR is also 123 for her but on my radar she is worth 133 although there is a chance that the ground may have distorted the figures.. Still, on the clock and with her finishing sectional, 133 is where I have her for the moment.

The thing that really interests me is that both stables can be rated in the top 3 yards in the country with a wealth of experience, expertise and technical back-up to assess their horses. Just how is it that both camps got it so wrong? O'Brien may have had a good opinion of Snowfall but  obviously had a much higher opinion of Santa Barbara, whilst Charlie Appleby clearly rated Hurricane Lane much better than Ayadar. These people are top of the training ranks so we can only assume that they know much more than your average trainer so we can only assume that when it comes to opinions, theirs are not infallible either.We all need to rember that when their opinions are treated as gospel, as they will be again.
Report Sandown June 7, 2021 3:15 PM BST
You make a valid point LH about the rank outsider being close enough to Ayadar for the form to be thought possibly suspect but the clock doesn't lie and until the theory is disproven, I'll put the winners at least on a high rating.
Report Figgis June 7, 2021 3:24 PM BST
is the fact that a rag outsider ended up the main opposer at the business end of any significance in grading down the win?

In my opinion no. I mean yeah sometimes it can be, but when everything else about a race tells me I've seen a good performance I've learned not to let the proximity of a seemingly no hoper bring the form down. Mojo Star was held up off the early pace. There are countless similar instances in the form book where one outran its odds in those circumstances. He had only had the two runs beforehand. His debut was promising, his reappearance was probably disappointing but it wasn't a bad run. It's far from impossible that such a lightly raced horse could improve that much on third start.

As I said beforehand though, it's not just how fast they ran, it's how they did it. Mojo Star was switched off early on then was all out to get where he did. Possibly MJ has reached a new level that he can run to next time. On the other hand it's possible that he ran out of his skin on Saturday and will never reach those heights again. We won't know which until his next start. Personally he's not a horse I'll be backing to repeat it.
Report Figgis June 7, 2021 3:47 PM BST
That said, in a match with Snowfall at 12f I would have to go with the filly

Sandown, if horses always ran to the pound, which we both know they don't, I would expect Adayar to beat the filly about 4 lengths on reasonable ground over 12f. As we both also know, there are degrees of confidence when analysing race times, etc. Often with lightly raced horses on a card where the other results don't provide enough conclusive evidence we take a punt on a figure, especially if we think the horse might be future value. In this case I'm very confident. I could still be wrong of course, but I'll be betting in the belief that I've nailed it.

I agree with your comments on the trainers. I reckon when they've got a Derby type who also looks fast enough for a Guineas they pretty much know, but when it gets to pure middle distance runners there is more guesswork involved, especially with a long striding type like Adayar. I've seen the opinion that Adayar might've won his trial if he'd been ridden differently or the pace was stronger, etc, but even if that's true, I'm sure he wouldn't have won like he did on Saturday. It looks like he's improved well over a stone since his last run. It can happen with young lightly raced horses.

You have to wonder about the late money though. It looked a bit more than just some shrewd value spotting to me, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the horse had improved recently in his work.
Report Howellsy June 7, 2021 8:11 PM BST
I'm giving Adayar a speed figure that is 1 point higher than the last two winners. Sorry, I can't make it any higher, much as I'd love to. I also wonder whether he might have been flattered by a favoured strip of ground on the inner. I'm much less confident about the Oaks, given all the rain, but my best 'educated' guess is a figure that puts her one point shy of Love and Enable. I gave both big winners the same rating, thus the filly would win with a 3 lb allowance. They'll never meet, of course.
Report Figgis June 7, 2021 9:23 PM BST
Very surprised at the high ratings for Snowfall. The Coronation Cup has seen some genuine Gp1 winners, but just as often it's a pretty weak affair for the class. It seems that people have rated this year's up to par. Personally I thought this year's was crap, with Al Aasy only running to his previous Gp3 type figure. I don't think the first or second have a hope in hell of even going close in the better races later this year.
Report LoyalHoncho June 8, 2021 1:03 AM BST
I'm not being deliberately argumentative Sandown but my faith in "the clock" disappeared many years ago.  I don't know how good the form is and am as much in the dark as anyone.  Was chuffed for the jockey though, it clearly meant a lot to him.  Be lucky.Love
Report Figgis June 29, 2021 2:17 PM BST
No surprise that Coolmore are ducking the KG with this supposed superstar filly.
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