Horse Antepost
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the oaks
the oaks
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Adding the same on Dubai Fountain 9.0 & 2.7 (4pls)
For the same reasons, rain & stays well. Gd luck all. |
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Just been reading one of the Timeform previews say this race has plenty of depth. Well, maybe in numbers but I just don't see it like that as far as quality goes. The only form even close to Oaks winning standard was the Guineas. This year's Guineas might not have been up with the best in regards to fillies likely to go on from the race, but as a race on its own it wasn't too far behind average standard, the time was decent. Saffron Beach finished best there but I think she ran the race of her life that day and I just don't fancy her to repeat that.
There has been talk of Santa Barbara improving over the distance, but in my experience very few horses actually get faster over longer distances, it's that decent opposition gets thinner. That's why a placed Guineas run has often been good enough to win an Oaks when replicated. I think Santa Barbara has already run very close to an average Oaks winning mark and as long as she doesn't recoil from being thrown in the deep end so soon she has more like an evens chance today. At least that was my thinking before the ground turned soft. I can't be sure that the ground won't hinder her chances, but my guess is if we get a good pace it might even exaggerate her superiority, so she's my only bet. |
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think the favourite will win and saffron beach to chase it home IF it stays the trip
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Teona for me
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Sherbet Lemon
Willow Mystery Angel All just for an interest |
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Snowfall went by a MILE; Santa Barbara ran out of puff.
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Great shout Giggity.
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Another solid run from Mystery Angel. Ben will get a few days for sure though.
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Well done Snowfall backers. Sometimes you look back and think how did I miss that but no I never rated the York win or her form before that. Well done those that did.
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the poster gigity
 top notch GL |
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Well done 'giggity2'! I hope you collect your winning in a wheelbarrow.
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ryan moore done a good job in last place as usual, they really are playing tricks on the betting public with the way they are campaigning there horses these days, their approach is too completely rob the punters, bookies must be laughing their heads off.
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Hot giggity!
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Well played giggity pal...
Shame you didn’t slip it in your 10 to follow squad...still I’ll take it...sweet dreams  |
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Mind you, you have to ask just who is having who away at Ballydoyle?
Ryan Moore, if he has any self-respect, must feel utterly humiliated. Someone surely told him that Santa Barbara was the one. beaten 21+. Maybe it's their way of getting rid of him.??? |
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thought that the move santa barbara did from the back to get within a length off the winner just outside the 2 marker was awesome , didnt stay did she , watch her over 10 furlongs .
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Santa Barbara --> Prix De Diane on 20th June?
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just hope that last 2 furlongs today , wont have left its mark, running on empty
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Wow! I didn't think she'd stay ten personally. O' Brien - for what it's worth - says she's very fast in her work. I remember Sir Michael running Ajdal, a Northern Dancer, in a Derby. Unsuccessfully. A while later it won the July Cup. the Hills Sprint then the Vernons Sprint! I don't know if she's a sprint type or not but I couldn't see her staying anything beyond a mile personally.
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remember ajdal well.won the dewhurst from shady heights, ( if i remember right),
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if i was r moore, and acclaimed by the press and media as greatest jockey living
, and being upstaged time after time by dettori, id be doing my nuts in , looks like moore likes the dollar more than anything , imagine lester riding for this lot |
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Piggott never had that many to choose from.
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he did you know, piggott had a choice of all horses in training id say
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Agreed penzance but he drove Vincent mad over galloping them, trying to find out which was the faster.
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Piggott knew his horsey onions.
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After Enable won the Oaks I said it was the fastest Oaks winning performance I'd seen. I thought it would probably be a long wait until I saw a similar win in the race, but only three years later I rated Love's win on par. However, it still remains to be seen if Love will go on from that as a 4yo. I have read Timeform comments putting Snowfall's win in the same bracket. I admit to underestimating Snowfall prior to the Oaks, but I still have no hesitation in saying Snowfall's win isn't even within half a stone of what those two fillies achieved in their victories, I have her 8lbs below them.
It was a good performance, an up to scratch one, but no better than that. She trounced the field, but a lot of them weren't very good, and those that weren't that bad either didn't get the trip or didn't act on the ground, or both. I wanted a better position, but they went off way too fast – everybody was fighting to get in the first three, so I let them get on with it. Dettori's words, and he's spot on. Sure, the best filly won and no matter how the race had been run the result wouldn't have changed. However, her superiority was greatly exaggerated by the conditions. If she holds that form then she's likely to keep defeating her own sex, but even with the favourable weight allowance she'll struggle in all age Gp1s that feature genuine Gp1 horses. |
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great call gigity very well done
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figgis , is there really genuine group1 horses out there any more ?
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yes gigity, great call on the muisidora and this
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really genuine group1 horses out there any more ?
times aren't getting slower |
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figgis , is there really genuine group1 horses out there any more ?
Yes. |
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Figgis what did you make of the Derby time? looked pretty quick to me when compared to other performances over the day. Suggests Adayar might be quite fast?
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A_T, well I take the opposite view with him (compared to the Oaks winner), he's a class act. I'll stick with Derby performances this century, so as not to get embroiled in pointless debates about horses from other eras. I have him up with the four previous best Derby winning performances since 2000. 3lbs behind Golden Horn's win, 2lbs behind Authorized, 1lb behind Workforce and level with Sinndar. Admittedly he wasn't on my radar going into the Derby, but that often leads to a more accurate reading of the race, as there are no preconceived ideas why I might overrate him.
It's not just about how fast they ran, it's how they ran fast. Authorized and Workforce were both beaten straight after the Derby before returning to form later. It's easy to say with hindsight, but even at the time I thought that while both horses won very decisively, I wouldn't say they won comfortably. They were both fully stretched and it wasn't a total surprise they needed a little more time to recover. For me, this was the most comfortable winner since Sea The Stars (whose Derby was too slowly run to give a true figure). Just because I thought he won fairly comfortably doesn't mean I think he will improve again, but it gives him a better chance of making a quick recovery. Three of those four horses mentioned went on to win an Arc. So could be some interesting punting times ahead, especially as the general view seems to be that this year's Derby was rubbish and won by a plodder |
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For the briefest of brief moments I hoped that the runner up was going to match the winner, when the commentator over-stated the strength of his run - I had slipped a spare fiver on very am that day at 150.0, so ridiculous was the price on offer - but is the fact that a rag outsider ended up the main opposer at the business end of any significance in grading down the win? Serious question. I admired the winner's performance but did he beat very much? Somehow I doubt it. As for the doubts regarding the in-running damage to the favourite my take is this. When/if Bolshoi Ballet ever wins again we can all afford not to be on.
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With you Figgis on your opinion of Adayar as he ran to a top form figure backed up on the clock and with a strong finishing sectional so I can rate him higher than the RPR of 123. How does 129 grab you?
That said, in a match with Snowfall at 12f I would have to go with the filly, especially in receipt of the usual f&m allowance. The RPR is also 123 for her but on my radar she is worth 133 although there is a chance that the ground may have distorted the figures.. Still, on the clock and with her finishing sectional, 133 is where I have her for the moment. The thing that really interests me is that both stables can be rated in the top 3 yards in the country with a wealth of experience, expertise and technical back-up to assess their horses. Just how is it that both camps got it so wrong? O'Brien may have had a good opinion of Snowfall but obviously had a much higher opinion of Santa Barbara, whilst Charlie Appleby clearly rated Hurricane Lane much better than Ayadar. These people are top of the training ranks so we can only assume that they know much more than your average trainer so we can only assume that when it comes to opinions, theirs are not infallible either.We all need to rember that when their opinions are treated as gospel, as they will be again. |
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You make a valid point LH about the rank outsider being close enough to Ayadar for the form to be thought possibly suspect but the clock doesn't lie and until the theory is disproven, I'll put the winners at least on a high rating.
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is the fact that a rag outsider ended up the main opposer at the business end of any significance in grading down the win?
In my opinion no. I mean yeah sometimes it can be, but when everything else about a race tells me I've seen a good performance I've learned not to let the proximity of a seemingly no hoper bring the form down. Mojo Star was held up off the early pace. There are countless similar instances in the form book where one outran its odds in those circumstances. He had only had the two runs beforehand. His debut was promising, his reappearance was probably disappointing but it wasn't a bad run. It's far from impossible that such a lightly raced horse could improve that much on third start. As I said beforehand though, it's not just how fast they ran, it's how they did it. Mojo Star was switched off early on then was all out to get where he did. Possibly MJ has reached a new level that he can run to next time. On the other hand it's possible that he ran out of his skin on Saturday and will never reach those heights again. We won't know which until his next start. Personally he's not a horse I'll be backing to repeat it. |
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That said, in a match with Snowfall at 12f I would have to go with the filly
Sandown, if horses always ran to the pound, which we both know they don't, I would expect Adayar to beat the filly about 4 lengths on reasonable ground over 12f. As we both also know, there are degrees of confidence when analysing race times, etc. Often with lightly raced horses on a card where the other results don't provide enough conclusive evidence we take a punt on a figure, especially if we think the horse might be future value. In this case I'm very confident. I could still be wrong of course, but I'll be betting in the belief that I've nailed it. I agree with your comments on the trainers. I reckon when they've got a Derby type who also looks fast enough for a Guineas they pretty much know, but when it gets to pure middle distance runners there is more guesswork involved, especially with a long striding type like Adayar. I've seen the opinion that Adayar might've won his trial if he'd been ridden differently or the pace was stronger, etc, but even if that's true, I'm sure he wouldn't have won like he did on Saturday. It looks like he's improved well over a stone since his last run. It can happen with young lightly raced horses. You have to wonder about the late money though. It looked a bit more than just some shrewd value spotting to me, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the horse had improved recently in his work. |
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I'm giving Adayar a speed figure that is 1 point higher than the last two winners. Sorry, I can't make it any higher, much as I'd love to. I also wonder whether he might have been flattered by a favoured strip of ground on the inner. I'm much less confident about the Oaks, given all the rain, but my best 'educated' guess is a figure that puts her one point shy of Love and Enable. I gave both big winners the same rating, thus the filly would win with a 3 lb allowance. They'll never meet, of course.
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Very surprised at the high ratings for Snowfall. The Coronation Cup has seen some genuine Gp1 winners, but just as often it's a pretty weak affair for the class. It seems that people have rated this year's up to par. Personally I thought this year's was crap, with Al Aasy only running to his previous Gp3 type figure. I don't think the first or second have a hope in hell of even going close in the better races later this year.
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