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nocturnal
29 Oct 20 10:47
Joined:
Date Joined: 14 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 882 | Blogger: nocturnal's blog
9/12 age 6-8
4/12 top 3 betting
3/12 wo lto
7/12 ran within 35 days
12/12 min 2 runs chelt
7/12 won at chelt
10/12 min 5 chase runs
11/12  2 chase wins min
11/12 rated 139 min
6/12 won grade 1-3 race
8/12 ran current season
3/12 won current season


Aso heads  the 37 entries off OR 158

Venetia has 4 in there,no winners for the yard in the last 12 runnings.

Last years 1,2 and 4th all receive entries.

Slate House also entered,travelled well last year before tipping up at the 2nd last.

Last years heroine bids for the repeat,a feat not seen in recent history.

Plenty of interesting 2nd season chasers might have this on the agenda,before going on to better things.

6/1 the field on ken dodds site,seems about right at this stage.

Fire away with any early thoughts / selections .
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Report Fabulous October 30, 2020 1:08 AM GMT
I’m interested in Brelan D’As 20’s and Master Tommytucker 33’s, but I’ve already bet a couple, so have to be careful....

Midnight Shadow 25’s
Belami Des Pictons 33’s EW 5pl
Report HKAccie October 30, 2020 9:27 AM GMT
Kauto Riko has a good record first up
Report GI MAC November 1, 2020 1:34 PM GMT
Very competitive as normal and can see it being a compressend handicap, making it even tougher. Agree about Belami Des Pictons, he's on a nice mark. The only other on my radar is Good Boy Bobby, who ran a cracking race at Cheltenham last season, looked good lto; NTD targets this race and the meeting in general, 16/1.
Report nocturnal November 1, 2020 6:21 PM GMT
Initial thought was it looked a little light in terms of quality.

Second glance suggests the complete opposite.

Looking back at last years thread,there was a strong stat in terms of ratings,9/11 had been rated between 139-148 on OR.

Happy Diva continued that winning off 143,the 2nd was rated 138,warthog was a lowly 132.

Decent course form also a big positive,just how stiff these fences remain might be a question for another day,they do not look as imposing as I remember from many a Festival visit.

So,looking for something with decent course form,not shown its hand fully,preferably below 11-00 st,and an 8 yr old or below,sounds easy.

No idea at this stage what that final field will include,the other big factor for me will be jockey bookings.

Both this race and the welsh national were won with claimers aboard,just two examples where it could be argued, did that make a difference to the final result ?

The one horse that interests me most long term,is Mister Fisher.His rating would be way above that of recent winners,should he take up that entry.Looking forward to what route Hendo takes with this horse,far from the finnished article last season,potentially top class with natural progression,I like him.

Lets hope plenty stand their ground,always an informative race.
Report sintonian November 1, 2020 8:06 PM GMT
In terms of rating Saint Sonnet fits the bill on 147 but he's a ludicrous price at 7/1 fav and little experience.

I thought Al Dancer and Mister Fisher were both interesting but their ORs are the mid 150's which is a fraction too high imo.

Maybe Slate House at a big price as he looked liked a good thing before tipping up last year. He's higher in the weights but he'll still get a couple of pounds from some of them.
Report unclepuncle November 2, 2020 4:09 PM GMT
Mister Fisher would definitely be interesting if he runs but I’ve backed Simply The Betts at 10,8/1.
Has to defy a big weight but his form with Imperial Aura was franked again yesterday.
Report SOULDANCER November 3, 2020 8:33 AM GMT
Happy Diva 33-1 e.w.1st 4 b365.

Ran well, finished 5th in what looked strong Wetherby race, needed that, beat in same race before winning this last year. Doesn't look well in with a few who oppose but she keeps improving and loves Cheltenham. Sure to turn up barring injury and 33's looks too big.

Lots of dangers. Nichols targets this. Aso well h'capped with Happy Diva on previous form, 13lb better than when beating HD at chelt. previously.

I'll be looking again when things settle and we know who's turning up.
Report nocturnal November 3, 2020 9:20 PM GMT
Yes,the posh one does hold the weight card.

Does that sway her into running more than one ?

I still have issues thinking of VW forking some freshly laid who flung into a barrow.

Of course she could claim off the top one,the double bluff you might call it.

Happy Diva ..... probably my favourite mare in training.

When she is primed,gives absolutely everything,Is there any more in the locker, rising 10 ?

Lovely ride in last years renewal,under-rated pilot in my humble opinion,formidable pair together.

5 day decs might shed a little light,nothing stands out this end just yet.
Report FELTFAIR November 4, 2020 6:58 PM GMT
Waiting for 5 day declarations given that most of the big yards have multiple entries e.g Paul Nicholls x7. Looks like there will be good ground which often favours the upper end of the handicap but watching this space for now.
Report sintonian November 5, 2020 2:34 PM GMT
Good Boy Bobby, Mister Fisher, and Al Dancer are all closely matched, and you know NTD's two will be primed for this, they have both ran already.

However I am going to have an eachway punt on Mister Fisger at 12/1 ew with 5 places available. If he has a clear round he'd simply not be out of the first 4. Nothing looks well handicapped with the possible exception of Saint Sonnet but that's only because we've not seen him much.
Report sageform November 5, 2020 7:27 PM GMT
Colin Tizzard has had a slow start but his horses are improving for a run. That makes Slate House who I backed last year a negative but The Russian Doyen had a nice spin over hurdles last month and Vision des Flos ran OK behind Greanateen at Exeter. Both have form to be well in the mix if the runs have put them right.
Report paulo47 November 6, 2020 10:25 AM GMT
Have alighted on Spiritofthegames mainly in the hope that the better ground , which seems likely , will produce the extra that is needed .Has won four times after a break .
Report unclepuncle November 8, 2020 8:47 PM GMT
^I considered him but he ran a shocker in this first time up last year.
Report sintonian November 8, 2020 9:25 PM GMT
Starting to really fancy Mister F now the weather forecast looks favourable and NJH has had 6 winners this weekend. When you look back at his Marsh Chase run he's staying on at the end, not slowing, and it's worth bearing in mind just how lightly raced/immature he is compared to the three horses who finished in front of him. Samcro age 8 and a Ballymore winner, Melon age 8 plus runner-up in two Champion Hurdles, Faugheen age 12 etc etc with numerous Group 1s. If Mister F only improves a little bit for age/maturity he's going to be right there. 12/1 still available.
Report FELTFAIR November 12, 2020 2:38 PM GMT
Weather forecast changed and a lot of rain now forecast so will wait until Saturday morning before finalising picks. Suffice to say it looks extremely competitive and I think the going will be an important factor for several of them.
Report Facts November 13, 2020 3:45 AM GMT
Spiritofthegames  for me
Report sageform November 14, 2020 10:44 AM GMT
I have now backed both Tizzard runners in the PP for small money. Slate House seems a big price now. I also fancy Eldorado Allen big time.
Report sageform November 14, 2020 1:54 PM GMT
Boom! Eldorado Allen for the Arkle as well.
Report FELTFAIR November 14, 2020 1:54 PM GMT
settled on Saint Sonnet and Al Dancer. Both e-w x5 places.
Report nocturnal November 14, 2020 2:15 PM GMT
The annual puzzle gets no easier.

Ground change already,much slower than predicted.

Settled on two at the prices,not too difficult to make a case for most of them.

Domain De Lisle.... has the right profile,ground should be ok,liked his comeback over hurdles.

Aso .....Has the weight for a reason,decent record fresh,dropped a few pounds,over-priced.

No great confidence,best of luck everyone
Report Facts November 14, 2020 2:29 PM GMT
paulo47  unlucky, thought we'd got it coming to the last.
Report HKAccie November 14, 2020 2:31 PM GMT
Bit more rain and a few more yards......
Report paulo47 November 14, 2020 5:57 PM GMT
Or a bit less and a few less ...
Report HKAccie November 14, 2020 8:33 PM GMT
Report HKAccie November 14, 2020 8:35 PM GMT
Was referring to the gallant 4th placed horse who ran his usual good race on his first outing of the season. We felt he might have been a lot closer if there had been a touch more rain.
Report nocturnal November 15, 2020 11:07 AM GMT
That was a fine effort HKA.

Very interesting profile for a 9 yr old,first time back from wind surgery.

Looks like he performs best with a decent break between races.

Does that mean he is fragile,or possibly a real trier who gives everything on the track.

Proper winter ground looks right up his street,given a clear run health wise.

Very lively contender for the race in December over similar distance at HQ,should he go that way.

Fine training performance too,very best of luck with him.
Report sageform November 15, 2020 11:37 AM GMT
WD winners if there were any! I was getting hopeful for The Russian Doyen 4 out but he stopped very quickly.
Report HKAccie November 15, 2020 2:54 PM GMT
Thanks N,

if you have a look at his form he’s won 3 times first up for the season. Last season he came 2nd in the Peterborough first up. He’s not fragile, he just needs a fair break between runs. He ran at the festival in March as an afterthought really as we knew that the season was shutting down. He’d had a really tough run 2 weeks before over 3m on filthy ground. He might go to Aintree in April but there’s a lot of time for that not to happen and he’s rated to get in for most years, if someone was to offer me odds on him jumping round I’d definitely take them - not wishing to curse him now as he’s a sound jumper.
Report nocturnal November 18, 2020 6:17 PM GMT
Thanks reply HKA ....... Sorry for delay in getting back to you.

"Fragile" was not the best choice,agreed.

What I do like,he appears to produce a decent level of form going both ways,that gives you options.

Watched most of his races now,Kelso run I guess was inconclusive,on that ground.

Mark remains unchanged on the RP site,not the worst news considering how much ground he made up.

Hope he has come out of that ok,nothing wrong with setting the bar high re Aintree.

Of course,you could always take advantage of that hurdles mark Wink

Watch with interest for future entries,very best of luck going forward.
Report HKAccie November 21, 2020 12:48 PM GMT
That Kelso run was interesting, we think he would have been a lot closer if they had to jump all the fences. Think he needs to get to 144 to get a run in April.
Report HKAccie January 25, 2021 10:31 AM GMT
This Saturday Cheltenham 1.50 with Hughes back on him
Report unclepuncle January 27, 2021 6:26 AM GMT
Good luck HK.

Going will be verging on unraceable (if it goes ahead) which should suit him.
Report nocturnal January 31, 2021 10:04 AM GMT
Thanks HKA ..... Best laid plans and all that.

No other entries at the moment according to RP.

142 got in off bottom weight in last years plate,would the new course play to his jumping strengths ?

Hugely frustrating I would imagine,lets hope he can go on from that seasonal return.
Report HKAccie March 2, 2021 10:31 AM GMT
He's in 2 at Cheltenham as we don't think we'll get into the GN off 142. I think he's still well treated and maybe the ULtima will suit him, he's well and he'll be fresh don't need the ground to dry up though.
Report nocturnal March 7, 2021 12:39 PM GMT
Maximum field of 24 for the first handicap of the meeting.

KR sits at 36th on 142,with a lovely racing weight of 10-08,7 others on the same mark.

Has the ground gone against him ? Will it be well watered on day 1 especially.

One of those horses who could well out-run his current odds.

All The Best HKA on whatever you decide,love to see him take his chance.
Report HKAccie March 10, 2021 11:31 AM GMT
No decision as yet, the target was for the GN but he’s 69th in the list so it’s highly unlikely he’ll get that. As to the ground, arguably his best run which was the Peterborough which was g/s so don’t think the ground has gone against him. I believe he just needs to be fresh when he runs so as long as he’s had a decent break he runs well. Also if you take that Peterborough run he’s very well weighted off 142.
Report HKAccie March 11, 2021 7:42 AM GMT
Will be going to Aintree....getting closer to 40th in the list now.
Report HKAccie March 23, 2021 5:31 PM GMT
Up to 52nd after today’s forfeit stage....going to be close. He’s also in The Topham just in case we miss out.
Report nocturnal March 23, 2021 9:48 PM GMT
He also raced not too far off the pace in that re-arranged  affair.

That would be my only observation pre-race,exaggerated hold up tactics seldom end well around here.

If he does get in HKA .... I might have to tell the story of the GN winning owner I met a few years back.

Fingers crossed and all that.
Report HKAccie March 30, 2021 1:08 AM BST
Up to 49th now.....it’s the hope that kills you.
Report bobbyjo April 5, 2021 2:55 PM BST
44....any chance ?
Report HKAccie April 5, 2021 6:16 PM BST
I don't think we'll get in....but it could a have a silver lining as I think we get BH riding on Friday. Think he's got a decent chance in the Topham
Report bobbyjo April 6, 2021 2:56 PM BST
Nice one, all the best
Report HKAccie April 7, 2021 2:44 AM BST
Thanks, looks like BH is going to Sedge instead so we’ve lost him.
Report nocturnal April 9, 2021 8:28 AM BST
So close to making the final line-up HKA Cry

Lots in his favour later today,can see him going really well,open looking contest.

Very best of luck.
Report HKAccie April 9, 2021 12:41 PM BST
Many thanks, he schooled nicely. Just hope he doesn’t get too far back, I do think if he takes to the fences he’ll go well as I think he’s well handicapped. Touch wood he gets round safely and does himself some justice.
Report HKAccie April 9, 2021 4:36 PM BST
Missed the start and was too far back to get into the race, fences were ok
Report nocturnal April 11, 2021 9:01 AM BST
As long as he,s ok,thats the main thing.

Searching gallop from the outset,plenty were found out early on,one of the hardest tracks to come from behind.

GL
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