Horse Antepost

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21 Oct 20 09:58
Date Joined: 25 Nov 01
| Topic/replies: 2,414 | Blogger: driver2's blog
I hate the price of Tiger Moth, but glancing through the fancied runners, I can't find anything to beat him, barring the weather! Following his 2nd to Santiago in the Irish Derby, which I am sure he would have won if not running so green on only his 3rd ever start, he fairly bolted up in the Gp 3 at Leopardstown and was well backed to do so. He is surely still improving.
I'm not going to back him until we have a better idea of ground conditions and perhaps the draw, as hopefully his price wont be much shorter on the day. An added bonus to his chances is the fact that Kerrin McEvoy, one of the world's best imo, has been booked to ride.
One thing that amuses me is that AOB pulled him out of the Leger because he thought he wouldn't stay! Is there no limit to the BS that Coolmore feeds us? Maybe not!
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Report harry callaghan October 21, 2020 11:49 AM BST
If he can’t get beat driver hopefully he is going to take a lot of money, fingers crossed the hype continues and he’s 3/1 come the day
Report driver2 October 24, 2020 7:40 AM BST
Well, Sir Dragonet just won the Cox Plate fairly comfortably and his hat will surely now be thrown into the ring. How gutted would Coolmore (and me) be if their cast off won the Cup!
Report harry callaghan October 24, 2020 8:22 AM BST
I was hoping they would just prep him, so am also disappointed. He was very decent odds before the plate not anymoreCrazy
Report driver2 October 26, 2020 1:05 PM GMT
So, Sir Dragonet doesn't get a penalty for his win in the Cox Plate and if the going comes up soft I can see him going off favourite. I still have a feeling that Tiger Moth might be special, but I'm going to wait for the draw and going before I back him.
Report driver2 October 26, 2020 1:07 PM GMT
I already said that didn't I, getting old!
Report driver2 October 29, 2020 8:31 AM GMT
Sir Dragonet fav on the Exchange, I just had a bit on Tiger Moth at 7/1, more realistic imo.
Report harry callaghan October 29, 2020 9:11 AM GMT
I’ve done the weights driver and their is no doubt tiger moth is well in..will he get the trip I’m not sure but I can’t find a bundle of pace so this may well end up like last year and not be a staying test. so track position will be the key. Not made my mind up yet as the odds aren’t great and I can’t find pace which is annoying
Report driver2 October 29, 2020 11:02 AM GMT
I wouldn't be surprised to see the usual suspects up front, J.O'B wont want his 2 held up as they both get the trip, as does Vow and Declare. Dashing Willoughby is another confirmed stayer, although he ran poorly last time. The Europeans have to make it a bit of a test imo as the Aussies have hardly got a stayer between them.
Report Facts October 30, 2020 9:09 AM GMT
Surprise Baby
Report driver2 October 30, 2020 1:18 PM GMT
Yes Facts, maybe the best of the Aussies, ran a great race from a bad draw last year.
Report driver2 October 31, 2020 7:26 AM GMT
Tiger Moth drawn 23, couldn't be much worse!. Sir Dragonet 14, Surprise Baby 7
Anthony VD 3.
Report Sandown October 31, 2020 11:25 AM GMT
The draw has very little effect if the past 31 years are anything to go by. The lowest 8 (1-8) had 10 winners, the middle 8 (9-16) had 13 winners and the highest 8 (17 -24) had 8 winners. So, yes, being drawn in the middle 8 looks best but being drawn high is not a disaster. A top jockey who knows the track like McEvoy should be able to offset any bia
Report EastLower Gooner November 1, 2020 6:49 AM GMT
There are some nice horses in here.

I won’t cover Tiger Moth again.

I thought Ashrun looked good on Saturday and it was good to see that Wohler made the effort to travel and go into prisontine for a couple of weeks. Not wild about the draw but he was dropped out on Saturday.

Quite like Jamie Kah and nice to see her partner Prince of Aaron again....tempting. I’m guessing she couldn’t make weight on Miami Bound who won the oaks last year here and looked good lto at the Valley. I think the old boy might like having Jamie on top....I know I would.

1st time I thought about Sir Donkeynet as a Cup horse is when Glen Boss mentioned it post race...I guess he would know about that but it’s Sir Donkeynet ffs

They you got the class...AvD and Very E.

Nice race.....
Report TEN2FOLLOWER November 1, 2020 9:30 PM GMT
1 Steel Prince
2 Surprise Baby
3 Tiger Moth

Report unclepuncle November 2, 2020 4:00 PM GMT
Master Of Reality @ 23
Mustajeer @ 140

GL all.
Report harry callaghan November 2, 2020 4:13 PM GMT
Very tricky I just can’t get to the bottom of it so am going to sit it out
I do like surprise baby but was expecting 12/14-1 and I just can’t get interested knowing how he’ll be ridden he can certainly get in the money from a plumb draw but that draw is only good if the rider wants to make use of him
Tiger moth is clearly well in but I have my doubts about the Leopardstown race and him at the distance but he still warrants respect
I basically like some rags avillus whom is a ponse could just like this but is more a top 8 bet rather than winning he may well like how this is run
Persan wouldn’t be good enough but I like the way he has been trained stratum who I give a good shout and the one I like most at the odds is steel prince but I don’t like the draw for him so annoying after a lot of work I just can’t bring myself to play even at very good odds..I also have spent a lot of time on master of reality but I just think he’d prefer some ease as I think the good mare does...I liked him a lot as thought he got a poor ride last year...prince of arran for Fellowes will like going and always gives his running so expect another good run from him but like a lot their isn’t much leeway in his price
It’s very tight at the odds and the handicapper has done a tremendous job imo so wish you well if you have a strong opinion
Report FELTFAIR November 2, 2020 5:12 PM GMT
Could back half the field in this and still not have the winner but have settled on three to give me something to watch when I wake up tomorrow morning.

In no particular order

Twilight Payment - Twice beat Master of Reality in Ireland this year at level weights by a combined 19 lengths on good ground. Receives 1lb from Master of Reality tomorrow. Managed to get 3-1 x10 places which will give me a small profit on all my bets if in the first ten.

Surprise Baby - Fast finishing 5th last year from trap 20. Now drawn 7 with Craig Williams in the plate so backed each way 5 places.

Ashrun - Drawn 24 which is a big ask but has run some fast times in France this year and I would be spitting blood if he succeeds. Backed each way 8 places
Report IrisDeBalme November 2, 2020 6:16 PM GMT
Quite unheard for last years winner of the race to be 66/1

He has been seriously out of form this year but VOW AND DECLARE may be the forgotten horse if the blinkers do the trick ?

I think I will do that one each way

Good Luck
Report Sandown November 2, 2020 7:12 PM GMT
The one horse who could blow this handicap apart is TIGER RUN. 2nd in the Irish Derby and he is running off 8-4 in a handicap? Has clearly been aimed at this race for a while and with just 4 runs the handicapper has guessed at this horses mark. A top jockey can overcome the draw issue -if he is beaten I won't be blaming that. His pedigree is all class. The way races are run in Australia, the race is not a great stamina test. You have to have a decent turn of foot to win this race. The ground will be on the fast side of good so expect an exciting finish.
Report Sandown November 2, 2020 7:13 PM GMT
TIGER MOTH, of course
Report harry callaghan November 2, 2020 7:26 PM GMT
I actually can’t disagree with any of that Sandown...I do know one thing their is nothing between the rest but he is blot on the handicap that is a sure fact...he would be unlike the other 3 year old winners or 3 year olds that have ran well in it having only had 4 starts, the others were more battle hardened, he has his chance however but as much as I agree speed is key you still need the stamina and it will be tested. We will see all the best if you’re wagering
Report penzance November 3, 2020 12:32 AM GMT
If he stays the trip,Anthony Van Dyck should
run a big one in this.@10s on here.
Report driver2 November 3, 2020 12:44 AM GMT
What a race we have in prospect. I agree with you harry, I'm definitely worried about Tiger Moth's inexperience, hopefully the jockey will make up for it. The ground looks as if it's come right for Anthony van Dyck and he's the one I fear most, he hasn't run a bad race this season, apart from on soft ground at Ascot and he brings the class to the race.
Anyone without sky can watch it on Dubai racing.
Report driver2 November 3, 2020 12:52 AM GMT
Didn't see your post penzance. Talking of staying, it will be interesting to see if the Europeans try to make it a stamina test this year, you could probably count the stayers on one hand and I'd expect one of JO'B to take it up early if they go the usual crawl.
Report Facts November 3, 2020 1:36 AM GMT
Surprise Baby
Report Facts November 3, 2020 4:36 AM GMT
Well done with the winner FELTFAIR.
Hope you backed it to win too? Cool
Report driver2 November 3, 2020 8:12 AM GMT
What a great ride from Kerrin McEvoy, he did exactly what I hoped he'd do and made light of the draw. In the end Tiger Moth was outstayed by the winner and I'm looking forward to seeing where he goes next. Hopefully he'll stay in training, as I'm sure that he will prove to be top class and make his presence felt in next season's Group Ones. I was gutted to see the tragedy that befell poor Anthony van Dyck as I am sure you all were.
Report harry callaghan November 3, 2020 8:17 AM GMT
Vwd felt fair like facts says hope you had a bit to win...I spent loads of time on him yesterday with the trainer change the only angle I could Find However he did have the form but I just couldn’t find a bet or come down on him and got confused and chucked the towel in the end...well done if you found him you would of got paid at a nice price in the end
Report FELTFAIR November 3, 2020 10:03 AM GMT
Yes did back the win twenty at 28/1.Grin
Report penzance November 3, 2020 10:25 AM GMT
Report Sandown November 3, 2020 12:47 PM GMT
No complaints about Tiger Moth even though I was hoping for a bit more improvement than he produced. Under-estimated the winner after 30 runs and his run last year. Terrific training performance by Joseph - he is in same league as AOB now - and a great ride from the jockey. Anything owned by Lloyd Williams has to be backed in the MC.
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