Melbourne Cup

If he can’t get beat driver hopefully he is going to take a lot of money, fingers crossed the hype continues and he’s 3/1 come the day

Well, Sir Dragonet just won the Cox Plate fairly comfortably and his hat will surely now be thrown into the ring. How gutted would Coolmore (and me) be if their cast off won the Cup!

I was hoping they would just prep him, so am also disappointed. He was very decent odds before the plate not anymore

So, Sir Dragonet doesn't get a penalty for his win in the Cox Plate and if the going comes up soft I can see him going off favourite. I still have a feeling that Tiger Moth might be special, but I'm going to wait for the draw and going before I back him.

I already said that didn't I, getting old!

Sir Dragonet fav on the Exchange, I just had a bit on Tiger Moth at 7/1, more realistic imo.

I’ve done the weights driver and their is no doubt tiger moth is well in..will he get the trip I’m not sure but I can’t find a bundle of pace so this may well end up like last year and not be a staying test. so track position will be the key. Not made my mind up yet as the odds aren’t great and I can’t find pace which is annoying

I wouldn't be surprised to see the usual suspects up front, J.O'B wont want his 2 held up as they both get the trip, as does Vow and Declare. Dashing Willoughby is another confirmed stayer, although he ran poorly last time. The Europeans have to make it a bit of a test imo as the Aussies have hardly got a stayer between them.

Surprise Baby

Yes Facts, maybe the best of the Aussies, ran a great race from a bad draw last year.

Tiger Moth drawn 23, couldn't be much worse!. Sir Dragonet 14, Surprise Baby 7
Anthony VD 3.

The draw has very little effect if the past 31 years are anything to go by. The lowest 8 (1-8) had 10 winners, the middle 8 (9-16) had 13 winners and the highest 8 (17 -24) had 8 winners. So, yes, being drawn in the middle 8 looks best but being drawn high is not a disaster. A top jockey who knows the track like McEvoy should be able to offset any bia
s.

There are some nice horses in here.

I won’t cover Tiger Moth again.

I thought Ashrun looked good on Saturday and it was good to see that Wohler made the effort to travel and go into prisontine for a couple of weeks. Not wild about the draw but he was dropped out on Saturday.

Quite like Jamie Kah and nice to see her partner Prince of Aaron again....tempting. I’m guessing she couldn’t make weight on Miami Bound who won the oaks last year here and looked good lto at the Valley. I think the old boy might like having Jamie on top....I know I would.

1st time I thought about Sir Donkeynet as a Cup horse is when Glen Boss mentioned it post race...I guess he would know about that but it’s Sir Donkeynet ffs

They you got the class...AvD and Very E.

Nice race.....

1 Steel Prince
2 Surprise Baby
3 Tiger Moth

thanks

Master Of Reality @ 23
Mustajeer @ 140

GL all.

Very tricky I just can’t get to the bottom of it so am going to sit it out
I do like surprise baby but was expecting 12/14-1 and I just can’t get interested knowing how he’ll be ridden he can certainly get in the money from a plumb draw but that draw is only good if the rider wants to make use of him
Tiger moth is clearly well in but I have my doubts about the Leopardstown race and him at the distance but he still warrants respect
I basically like some rags avillus whom is a ponse could just like this but is more a top 8 bet rather than winning he may well like how this is run
Persan wouldn’t be good enough but I like the way he has been trained stratum who I give a good shout and the one I like most at the odds is steel prince but I don’t like the draw for him so annoying after a lot of work I just can’t bring myself to play even at very good odds..I also have spent a lot of time on master of reality but I just think he’d prefer some ease as I think the good mare does...I liked him a lot as thought he got a poor ride last year...prince of arran for Fellowes will like going and always gives his running so expect another good run from him but like a lot their isn’t much leeway in his price
It’s very tight at the odds and the handicapper has done a tremendous job imo so wish you well if you have a strong opinion

Could back half the field in this and still not have the winner but have settled on three to give me something to watch when I wake up tomorrow morning.

In no particular order

Twilight Payment - Twice beat Master of Reality in Ireland this year at level weights by a combined 19 lengths on good ground. Receives 1lb from Master of Reality tomorrow. Managed to get 3-1 x10 places which will give me a small profit on all my bets if in the first ten.

Surprise Baby - Fast finishing 5th last year from trap 20. Now drawn 7 with Craig Williams in the plate so backed each way 5 places.

Ashrun - Drawn 24 which is a big ask but has run some fast times in France this year and I would be spitting blood if he succeeds. Backed each way 8 places

Quite unheard for last years winner of the race to be 66/1

He has been seriously out of form this year but VOW AND DECLARE may be the forgotten horse if the blinkers do the trick ?

I think I will do that one each way

Good Luck

The one horse who could blow this handicap apart is TIGER RUN. 2nd in the Irish Derby and he is running off 8-4 in a handicap? Has clearly been aimed at this race for a while and with just 4 runs the handicapper has guessed at this horses mark. A top jockey can overcome the draw issue -if he is beaten I won't be blaming that. His pedigree is all class. The way races are run in Australia, the race is not a great stamina test. You have to have a decent turn of foot to win this race. The ground will be on the fast side of good so expect an exciting finish.

TIGER MOTH, of course

I actually can’t disagree with any of that Sandown...I do know one thing their is nothing between the rest but he is blot on the handicap that is a sure fact...he would be unlike the other 3 year old winners or 3 year olds that have ran well in it having only had 4 starts, the others were more battle hardened, he has his chance however but as much as I agree speed is key you still need the stamina and it will be tested. We will see all the best if you’re wagering

If he stays the trip,Anthony Van Dyck should
run a big one in this.@10s on here.
   GL ALL

What a race we have in prospect. I agree with you harry, I'm definitely worried about Tiger Moth's inexperience, hopefully the jockey will make up for it. The ground looks as if it's come right for Anthony van Dyck and he's the one I fear most, he hasn't run a bad race this season, apart from on soft ground at Ascot and he brings the class to the race.
Anyone without sky can watch it on Dubai racing.

Didn't see your post penzance. Talking of staying, it will be interesting to see if the Europeans try to make it a stamina test this year, you could probably count the stayers on one hand and I'd expect one of JO'B to take it up early if they go the usual crawl.

Surprise Baby

Well done with the winner FELTFAIR.
Hope you backed it to win too?

What a great ride from Kerrin McEvoy, he did exactly what I hoped he'd do and made light of the draw. In the end Tiger Moth was outstayed by the winner and I'm looking forward to seeing where he goes next. Hopefully he'll stay in training, as I'm sure that he will prove to be top class and make his presence felt in next season's Group Ones. I was gutted to see the tragedy that befell poor Anthony van Dyck as I am sure you all were.

Vwd felt fair like facts says hope you had a bit to win...I spent loads of time on him yesterday with the trainer change the only angle I could Find However he did have the form but I just couldn’t find a bet or come down on him and got confused and chucked the towel in the end...well done if you found him you would of got paid at a nice price in the end

Yes did back the win twenty at 28/1.

wd
   GL

No complaints about Tiger Moth even though I was hoping for a bit more improvement than he produced. Under-estimated the winner after 30 runs and his run last year. Terrific training performance by Joseph - he is in same league as AOB now - and a great ride from the jockey. Anything owned by Lloyd Williams has to be backed in the MC.