2021 2000 Guineas Newmarket

backed Lucky Vega,got no run whatso ever.
Annoying as he was going aswell as the winner
imo.Shame we'll never find out if he'd stayed
or won.Chapman said did'nt finish off strongly
but how can you when nearly stopped.Be nice if
he and the winner,who won well,came over here
for the Dewhurst.Some good looking 2yr olds
about,it seems.

Chapman said did'nt finish off strongly
but how can you when nearly stopped.

Couldn't agree more. He's a big horse, not the type to change gear immediately. Looked still full of running to me but we'll have to wait another day to find out. As to the winner, some people were getting very excited about him on TV and I heard a 6/1 quote. Well he did have some trouble in running and maybe he only did enough to beat what he was up against but I can't say I was impressed. The time was 1.34 behind the Moyglare (which I have as just an ok renewal, not genuine Gp1) while carrying only 3lbs more. As a still unbeaten 2yo I'm not writing him off but I'll believe he's a really good horse when I see him do that in a faster run race.

5/1 (3 mickey mouse firms),between 6 & 8/1 rest.

We should get the chance to see if Lucky Vega can make the leap to Guineas winning class today but unfortunately it will still reveal nothing about his stamina for the race. As connections have chosen to go back to 6f it looks as though they're seeing him as more of a sprinter anyway. Surprised to see Supremacy so big as I have his latest win only just behind Lucky Vega. Method has more to find but obviously open to more improvement than the others after only two starts. Minzaal could also be still improving but has quite a bit to find by my reckoning and looks underpriced. Not my favourite 2yo race in the calendar and it probably isn't going to be much of a Guineas pointer, nevertheless, this year's renewal looks a high class contest in the making.

thought Lucky Vega was a bit disappointing
today,tbh.
  GL

Not much between the front two, as thought beforehand. They didn't go as fast early as they could have and the final time was affected, with the first and second running a few pounds slower than their previous best. The winner was in the best place considering the pace but probably would've won on the day anyway. Not much of a Guineas pointer but I think if either of them can improve 4 or 5lbs next season they'll be capable of picking up a Gp1 sprint. It's very difficult to predict though which sprinters will go on from 2 to 3.

Well Thunder Moon looked good in a moderately run race, but so do lots of horses. We should get to see what he's really made of today. I have Cadillac as the best form going into the race, but still well short of Guineas winning class.

I'm sure excuses will be made for some of the beaten Dewhurst runners on account of the ground but, even allowing for the tailwind, the early races on the card were run on ground more like good to soft. Not a Guineas pointer for me, apart from telling me that those that contended it aren't good enough without big improvement.

so this is the latest thinking on the 2000 guineas, been too busy on other areas of research last season, plus the disruption to the normal pattern to the racing season, hudson river went off a short price favourite for  the superlative stakes, cant say looked anything like the finished article on debut run, worth oppossing that day, still like to see if
it can  develop into a group one horse, apart from that was impressed with mac swiney on that ground, wouldn't have any idea if that would be fast enough to win a guineas, could
be a potential derby winner on the right ground.

hey roadrunner how are the shares going ,any share  tips ?

i like the dewhurst winner st marks basilica but too short for me to back it ,will have a look for something at a bigger price each way!

i put AIRBNB on the politics forum couple of weeks ago at 146, its 181 at moment, maybe the price will dip and you can get a better entry point.

cheers roady will have a look

O'Brien named St Mark's Basilica, crowned Europe's champion two-year-old on Wednesday, as a likely Qipco 2,000 Guineas contender along with Wembley and Van Gogh.

But the participation of 8-1 favourite Battleground is unclear, with O'Brien potentially targeting the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot instead.

I think the market is reacting on the good words of AOD on Battleground who was much lesser considered as a Guineas horse more of a Royal Ascot (I believe) than St Mark's Basilica (SMB) and Wembley (W), winner and runner-up in The Dewhurst respectively; Wembley was deemed unlucky that day as the others had 1st run and was on the wrong side too; 3rd Thunder Moon had every chance but soft ground was against him and possibly 1f further did not help.

Battleground is 9/2 fav, but on a line with Cadillac (Breeders Cup) SMB (8/1) and W (9/1) has the beating of him; W (13 here) is drifting like a barge the last few days.

i backed thunder moon yonks ago at 33/1, chuffed to bits if it comes in

Battleground has drifted alarmingly and was matched at 9 here (from 5.6). Insider dealing or merely market manipulation? The prices of St Mark's Basilica and Wembley have barely reacted to this drift. How ironic?

Battleground looks an increasing likely goner. No respite in the price drift.

I have no enthusiasm for the race in most years since Aiden had 3 or 4 runners. I did back Kameko though. I always used to look forward to the maidens but there are less stars in them now that many good horses make their debut on the AW. The Alex Scott tomorrow has just 8 runners when it used to have a maximum field. The 1.00 on Sunday over the straight mile at Newbury should produce some Group winners.

How can you have an ante post bet in the race without knowing the draw which on the Rowley Mile is far more important than form, potential or ability.

too late already bet ,just pray you kop the golden highway!

Had a bit of the 12s that was available earlier on that Mutasaabeq thing. Now i know nothing about breeding etc but certainly looked impressive to my eye.

Taking a bit of a punt that he'll be supplemented but trainer in interview on rtv didn't say he wouldn't be!

almost certain that he will be supplemented given that Laneqash and Albasheer (probably Shadwells two best chances in the 2000gns) have both met with setbacks and Hill will know how that winner today stacks up against Mujbar who runs shortly.

Mutasaabeq bred in the purple out of a Guineas winner.  Dame line goes back to Height Of Fashion and beyond.  Fast time so this is definitely a class animal.

Funny enough LoyalHoncho, it made the short list for my 10 to follow based on its 2yo win, but dropped out at the final stage BECAUSE of its pedigree. Ghanaati was obviously a Guineas winner BUT the BEST of her five offspring is only Afaak, a handicapper, a good C2 one (rpr113), but a handicapper.  It was undoubtedly an impressive seasonal debut though.

Would he be certain to get a mile mutasaabeq? I got the impression the trainer wasn’t in a hurry with him at this stage

13s on here,now,Battleground.
Runner?

heard battleground could  go elsewhere irish gns or france penzance as ever the word COULD  has to be taken into account .

The speckie (not ED who's been left out of the discussion) on ITV about Battleground goind France or elsewhere.

The race is almost priced up like a handicap.

Thunder Moon is one of those at the top end, but surely he looked like a non stayer last season?

Then you have the guessing game of which ones O'Brien will run even before you consider if they are good enough to win. I really liked Van Gogh last year, and he remains an attractive price. Does anyone know why he missed the Craven? The horses that the stable has run this week have not done that well. Perhaps he was too good to run?

I think the best form was the Dewhurst where the O'Briens' filled the 1st 3 places. Similarly, the Irish Goffs National Stakes where the same 3 horses occupied the 1st 3 places; the winner Thunder Moon only managed 3rd on soft ground in The Dewhurst. However, I can see Wembley winning over a furlong longer, if not given too much too do. The Goldophin pair have merits but form does not indicate a win from either, I believe.

Van Gogh beat La Barrosa in France by an effortless 6 lengths which if you like collateral form takes care of The National Stakes particpants and the Dewhurst particpants. However, I am not a big fan of collateral form and the market suggests to me that Van Gogh will particpate in the Guineas as a preparation for the Derby or will wait for one of the other Derby trials.

Van Gogh bolted up in France on very soft ground but Aiden O` Brien suggested recently that he would be more suited by better ground which is likely at Newmarket. My understanding is that the Ballydoyle horses will stable in Newmarket well before the Guineas, I may be wrong but if so and Van Gogh travels I think he will go the Newmarket route. There will be others on here who know better than me. I just hope he meets O`Brien`s high opinion of him and goes to the Derby way shorter than he is now.

As for the Guineas I backed Wembley after the Dewhurst as I thought another furlong would have seen him probably win despite his bad draw. I will trade my position nearer to the time and add One Ruler who beat Van Gogh at Newmarket and ran a big race in the Racing Post Trophy.

anyone know if Lucky Vega is a goer?
cheers.

Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds
Backer's stake
Mutasaabeq
1
£75.95
£0.00

Anyone know why this is now no longer in the market? The supplementary stage hasn't happened yet has it?

Battleground won at Royal Ascot as a two year old.If he runs and wins that will make it 4 out of the last 232 English Classics.

I think given the friendly weather forecast good/good to firm anticipated. As such, ideal condition for Thunder Moon giving him the best chance of staying an extra furlong. But, Wembley and St Mark's Basilica will be chomping at the bit for their chance to overhaul him, I believe.

Van Gogh a sea of blue today. What has triggered the move all of a sudden?

Suggests he`s a likely runner to me.

Good news STS it looks like Mutasaabeq is going to be supplemented for the Guineas

sts knows - I told him a week ago

Still priced up like a handicap. To narrow it down the two I would throw out would be Thunder Moon and Mutasaabeq. I can't see how anyone looking at the Dewhurst could think Thunder Moon wants a mile. He came to win the race and palpably weakened in the final furlong. O'Brien also seems clueless when it comes to jocks so very unlikely whoever is booked will be anything other than another negative. Mutasaabeq is a bit like the Santa Barbara of the 2,000 Guineas market. He won what looks to be a very ordinary maiden and then ran away with a conditions race easily beating three rivals of dubious quality. He is another one of these time boffin horses that seem so popular these days. Well if there ever was an edge in that respect there doesn't seem to be one now. I wouldn't have him at twice the price.

Took the 12s that was available straight after Mutasaabeq won last time and when they didn't rule out supplementing in interview on itv.

I also backed and laid on here, the copy/paste is the lay part of that trade, i still hold all risk with my 12/1 bet and at least to my eye he was very impressive.

Certainly of those who have run this season I think he's the one to beat, of course of those who haven't we are guessing and if there's any significant market moves for anything on Saturday, as always will be significant.

Wembley is preferred on good to firm ground; St Marks Basilica and Battleground could end up in France, I think.

Mutasaabeq was impressive and I am a believer, Battleground is a very fair price but it looks open does it not?

I am not dismissing Mutasaabeq as not impressive, but having just won a conditions race where he got his own way he is priced up the same as horses with Group 1 form. It just looks a terrible price on what he has actually achieved.

Metro looks from Ante Post market Battleground going to be non runner.
Was single figures 2 months ago now 32.0 @ 5 day stage.
Fancy Thunder Moon with his turn of foot providing they dont water all the good/firm out the gorund.
Softer ground dented that in the Dewhurst.

I get your point drum.  He impressed me too then I remembered English King from last year, who did a similar fast time in winning his trial, and he went on to disappoint.

Looks like the Battleground ante post layers @ 25s plus knew noting into 7s now suggests hes running.

st marks the nonner i think

Chindit is my bet.
He is small.  The fast ground might suit.

Where's Figgis?

I backed Master of the Seas after the Craven and after another look at the race , still cant believe he won it , yanked back early , head screwed sideways twice , bumping match , eye of a needle . Hopefully he may settle better .

We know the world has changed forever, sadly, when John Gosden, Sir Michael Stoute and Saeed bin Suroor don't even have a runner in the 2,000, let alone a contender.

If Donnacha joins in next year, we could have over half the field from one family.

The Irish version perhaps 85%.....

Two bookmakers offering five places. How many times has that happened before?

too right AT where's Figgis.  All I need is Figgis to tell me Mutasaabeq clocked a monster time and I'm all in.  See that horse barrel up the hill after the race, out on his own just like his mum Ghannati. Absolute beast!

too right AT where's Figgis.  All I need is Figgis to tell me Mutasaabeq clocked a monster time and I'm all in.  See that horse barrel up the hill after the race, out on his own just like his mum Ghannati. Absolute beast!

too right AT where's Figgis.  All I need is Figgis to tell me Mutasaabeq clocked a monster time and I'm all in.  See that horse barrel up the hill after the race, out on his own just like his mum Ghannati. Absolute beast!

st marks a nonner was a big ante post blow for me ,anyway have backed jim bolgers poetic flare at 12/1 each way 5 places slys ,got a bit to find on the ratings but 3wins from 4 runs and jb said he didnt have him right for the dewhurst and he has mentioned him in the same breath as his sire and  guineas winner  dawn approach ,yard also had futurity winner mac swinney for this but have opted to run poetic flare ,the step up to a mile could bring further improvement, a prominent racer drawn 4 will do for me each way.

I like one ruler but not sure draw is helpful, could battleground find the golden highway ?

LUCKY VEGA's price is an insult IMO. 20/1 everywhere plus 28s on here.. Everyone assuming he won't stay but he is bred to and if he does the rest of the field are in big trouble with his speed and his group 1 class.

Well a wide open renewal and although the stalls are in the middle I just hope we aren't talking about the draw and golden highways after the race.
Hopefully with it being a fairly small field they stay up the middle but I expect the high numbers may come stand side (like in 2019 when Magna Grecia won). They may split into two small groups and go both sides like when Night Of Thunder and Kingman on the far side beat Australia who was on the stands side.

If I ignore the possible draw problems then it really does look a hard one to call. The ground should be proper good to firm and light winds hopefully mean there isn't a massive bias for front runners.

While Mutassabeq is unbeaten and beuatifully bred he seems very short for what he has actually achieved and I do wonder how much he was flattered by being on the front end with a strong tail wind last time. At the prices I can happily leave him alone.

Wembley and Thunder Moon come next in the market and have strong claims. I do feel Wembley (who is only 1 from 6) is just a touch one paced and lacks a real turn of foot - he has looked good closing late on when others have started to tire but will he again get too far back.
Thunder Moon certainly showed a turn of foot in the National Stakes and with fast ground he looks the strongest of the market leaders. However he is by Zoffany and while a decent stallion he has not been a source of classic winners and reminds me of Beat Hollow in that respect.

Next we have Battleground who looked good at Ascot and Goodwood. But that form isn't really much to get excited about - the second horse at Goodwood was well beaten on his next few starts and is now based in Doha!

Then we have the two Godolphin / Appleby horses. One Ruler has been well touted all spring and has good course form, quickening nicely to beat Van Gogh. He was just touched off in desperate conditions in the Racing Post Trophy - a race that has started to have a big influence on the Guineas. He was previously beaten at the Doncaster Leger meeting in a relatively ordinary listed race so I just don't see him as a Guineas winner.

Master Of The Seas is interesting. Three time New'Mkt winner and only defeat coming in the National Stakes when he raced freely and quickened up looking the winner a furlong out before getting swamped late on. Pulls hard and now wears headgear and he reminds me a bit of King of Kings who was the best Guineas winner I have seen in my 30 years of following racing - if you are too young to remember him do watch it on You Tube. Will need cover which he may not get from stall 2.

Lucky Vega looks a doubtful stayer and Poetic Flare surely needs further so that leaves Chindit.

Only beaten once, in the Dewhurst, and while many, including the trainer, put that down to the ground and/or not handling the track I am not so sure. He was going nicely in behind towards the rail and got checked at a crucial stage and then was eased when beaten. Another horse who will need cover for a late challenge as he has a good turn of foot and only just does enough. He hangs left handed under pressure though being drawn high he should be near the stands rail by the end.

Van Gogh is a good horse but is a big brute and definitely seemed to struggle with the dip when 2nd to One Ruler. He is also bred to be a 10f horse so may lack the pace.

Hard to fancy any of the others.

At the available prices I've played Master Of The Seas and Chindit.

Good Luck All.

^ I meant King's Best (2000) was the best Guineas winner I have seen, not King Of Kings (though he was a good winner too).

May 1, 2021 -- 7:03AM, unclepuncle wrote:

Well a wide open renewal and although the stalls are in the middle I just hope we aren't talking about the draw and golden highways after the race.Hopefully with it being a fairly small field they stay up the middle but I expect the high numbers may come stand side (like in 2019 when Magna Grecia won). They may split into two small groups and go both sides like when Night Of Thunder and Kingman on the far side beat Australia who was on the stands side.If I ignore the possible draw problems then it really does look a hard one to call. The ground should be proper good to firm and light winds hopefully mean there isn't a massive bias for front runners.While Mutassabeq is unbeaten and beuatifully bred he seems very short for what he has actually achieved and I do wonder how much he was flattered by being on the front end with a strong tail wind last time. At the prices I can happily leave him alone.Wembley and Thunder Moon come next in the market and have strong claims. I do feel Wembley (who is only 1 from 6) is just a touch one paced and lacks a real turn of foot - he has looked good closing late on when others have started to tire but will he again get too far back.Thunder Moon certainly showed a turn of foot in the National Stakes and with fast ground he looks the strongest of the market leaders. However he is by Zoffany and while a decent stallion he has not been a source of classic winners and reminds me of Beat Hollow in that respect.Next we have Battleground who looked good at Ascot and Goodwood. But that form isn't really much to get excited about - the second horse at Goodwood was well beaten on his next few starts and is now based in Doha! Then we have the two Godolphin / Appleby horses. One Ruler has been well touted all spring and has good course form, quickening nicely to beat Van Gogh. He was just touched off in desperate conditions in the Racing Post Trophy - a race that has started to have a big influence on the Guineas. He was previously beaten at the Doncaster Leger meeting in a relatively ordinary listed race so I just don't see him as a Guineas winner.Master Of The Seas is interesting. Three time New'Mkt winner and only defeat coming in the National Stakes when he raced freely and quickened up looking the winner a furlong out before getting swamped late on. Pulls hard and now wears headgear and he reminds me a bit of King of Kings who was the best Guineas winner I have seen in my 30 years of following racing - if you are too young to remember him do watch it on You Tube. Will need cover which he may not get from stall 2.Lucky Vega looks a doubtful stayer and Poetic Flare surely needs further so that leaves Chindit.Only beaten once, in the Dewhurst, and while many, including the trainer, put that down to the ground and/or not handling the track I am not so sure. He was going nicely in behind towards the rail and got checked at a crucial stage and then was eased when beaten. Another horse who will need cover for a late challenge as he has a good turn of foot and only just does enough. He hangs left handed under pressure though being drawn high he should be near the stands rail by the end.Van Gogh is a good horse but is a big brute and definitely seemed to struggle with the dip when 2nd to One Ruler. He is also bred to be a 10f horse so may lack the pace.Hard to fancy any of the others.At the available prices I've played Master Of The Seas and Chindit.Good Luck All.

Chindit lmfao you’re a mug pal

Master oTS for me

In addition to Wembley and One Ruler mentioned earlier I have added Van Gogh who I traded but couldn`t resist the 28 offered on here. I hope the latter runs a big race and shortens up even more for the Derby.

As many have said a case can be made for about x10 of the runners but can`t back them all.

Hi A_T, chico. Still here .

The last five renewals have produced substandard winners, and looking through today's runners I think that's likely to be the case this year. In an open looking field the market has gone more for potential than proven form and sided with the two lightly raced runners. While Thunder Moon looked impressive in the National Stakes, I wasn't convinced until seeing him do it in a faster run race. He got that in the Dewhurst and, for me, he was found out there. Excuses were made about the ground. It's entirely possible that it was a valid excuse. It would be foolish to think you know everything about a horse after only three runs. However, by my reckoning the ground was no worse than good to soft and I remain unconvinced about him. Mutasaabeq was another who looked impressive. The time was fair but still leaves him with a few pounds to find. Obviously he could improve again but I'm more inclined to think he'll struggle in a race where he's unlikely to have it all his own way again.

In my view there are only two runners in today's race who have already run fast enough to win, or go close to winning, a moderate Guineas. Master Of The Seas is a couple of pounds behind those two, with the rest of the field having even more to find. Lucky Vega is one, but he's unproven at the trip. His run in the National Stakes didn't prove anything as he had trouble in running, but as connections decided to drop him back next time it does seem like they've always seen him as more of a sprinter. That leaves Battleground, a horse with no doubts about getting the trip. I was astonished that Moore had chosen Wembley over him. Maybe he knows something I don't. Possibly Battleground hasn't been working as well as last year, or maybe Wembley looks to have come on a bundle. Knowing Moore's record for being on the wrong horse though I won't let that put me off and Battleground is the one I'm backing.

battleground 8/1 bog as a saver ,not overkeen on war fronts at 3 plus but with the right connections and decent form in the us will do for me !

oi ,oi  jimmy bolger ! thatll do !

bolger strikes again!

kingG111111 will be posting his apology shortly.

Dubawi colts 2nd, 4th, 6th.

Well done winners.
My mate tipped it up but wishes to remain anonymous. 
As does Mutasaabeq,  Another English Prince - having flattered to deceive.

Very well done Foyleswar. Going into the race I thought PF was no better than his price suggested. Battleground went out like a light after travelling well for much of the race. Even though I didn't fancy Thunder Moon or Wembley their displays were obviously too bad to be true. Easily the worst Guineas in the last 10 years I reckon, not that it matters to the winner's backers.

thanks figgis ,st marks bas was a real blow  and it was only yesterday morning that i really started to go through the race ,it was jim bolgers comments that got me interested and looking deeper into this one ,he likened this one to his sire  dawn approach and said "what i can tell you is he has improved massifly over the winter , coolmore didnt seem to have an outstanding candidate so the pin came down on this one .

Well done winners.

I have to admit that I got my Bolger horses mixed up - I just saw the colours and assumed it was the horse who had won the Racing Post Trophy last season hence saying it needed further. I hadn't even looked at the form of Poetic Flare.

Poor ride from Buick imo who should have moved his horse across to the middle and come between horses much later instead of going for the long sweeping run down the side - same thing as in the National Stakes.
Wish he'd watched the video of Kings Best a few more time.

had no bet in the race, just checked that poetic flare has the same damsire as last years winner kameko, was definitely in the dark horse category, with the
winners dam called maria lee, after losing my mother last year, same name maria, was happy to see lucky vega run well, the money came for the runner-up and
that was probably a banker place bet with that momentum in the market.

watch one of these coolmore also rans hack up in the irish 2000

Jan 23, 2021 -- 11:14AM, roadrunner46 wrote:

so this is the latest thinking on the 2000 guineas, been too busy on other areas of research last season, plus the disruption to the normal pattern to the racing season, hudson river went off a short price favourite for

the ground was perfect for mac swiney