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Figgis
13 Sep 20 15:06
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Date Joined: 28 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 8,552 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
A proper 2yo test here with the National Stakes. I have Lucky Vega as the fastest 2yo this season. As yet I think he's only a few pounds short of Guineas winning standard, but the big question is whether he will get the 7f, never mind the mile. His pedigree seems to say he will but there is no way of knowing until he does it, and it remains to be seen how much that latest effort has taken out of him. I have Master Of The Seas with half a stone to find, but at least we know he stays. Very interesting race.

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Replies: 78
By:
penzance
When: 13 Sep 20 15:41
backed Lucky Vega,got no run whatso ever.
Annoying as he was going aswell as the winner
imo.Shame we'll never find out if he'd stayed
or won.Chapman said did'nt finish off strongly
but how can you when nearly stopped.Be nice if
he and the winner,who won well,came over here
for the Dewhurst.Some good looking 2yr olds
about,it seems.
By:
Figgis
When: 13 Sep 20 16:18
Chapman said did'nt finish off strongly
but how can you when nearly stopped.


Couldn't agree more. He's a big horse, not the type to change gear immediately. Looked still full of running to me but we'll have to wait another day to find out. As to the winner, some people were getting very excited about him on TV and I heard a 6/1 quote. Well he did have some trouble in running and maybe he only did enough to beat what he was up against but I can't say I was impressed. The time was 1.34 behind the Moyglare (which I have as just an ok renewal, not genuine Gp1) while carrying only 3lbs more. As a still unbeaten 2yo I'm not writing him off but I'll believe he's a really good horse when I see him do that in a faster run race.
By:
penzance
When: 13 Sep 20 16:25
5/1 (3 mickey mouse firms),between 6 & 8/1 rest.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Sep 20 13:44
We should get the chance to see if Lucky Vega can make the leap to Guineas winning class today but unfortunately it will still reveal nothing about his stamina for the race. As connections have chosen to go back to 6f it looks as though they're seeing him as more of a sprinter anyway. Surprised to see Supremacy so big as I have his latest win only just behind Lucky Vega. Method has more to find but obviously open to more improvement than the others after only two starts. Minzaal could also be still improving but has quite a bit to find by my reckoning and looks underpriced. Not my favourite 2yo race in the calendar and it probably isn't going to be much of a Guineas pointer, nevertheless, this year's renewal looks a high class contest in the making.
By:
penzance
When: 26 Sep 20 21:56
thought Lucky Vega was a bit disappointing
today,tbh.
  GL
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Sep 20 00:34
Not much between the front two, as thought beforehand. They didn't go as fast early as they could have and the final time was affected, with the first and second running a few pounds slower than their previous best. The winner was in the best place considering the pace but probably would've won on the day anyway. Not much of a Guineas pointer but I think if either of them can improve 4 or 5lbs next season they'll be capable of picking up a Gp1 sprint. It's very difficult to predict though which sprinters will go on from 2 to 3.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Oct 20 13:48
Well Thunder Moon looked good in a moderately run race, but so do lots of horses. We should get to see what he's really made of today. I have Cadillac as the best form going into the race, but still well short of Guineas winning class.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Oct 20 18:20
I'm sure excuses will be made for some of the beaten Dewhurst runners on account of the ground but, even allowing for the tailwind, the early races on the card were run on ground more like good to soft. Not a Guineas pointer for me, apart from telling me that those that contended it aren't good enough without big improvement.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 23 Jan 21 10:14
so this is the latest thinking on the 2000 guineas, been too busy on other areas of research last season, plus the disruption to the normal pattern to the racing season, hudson river went off a short price favourite for  the superlative stakes, cant say looked anything like the finished article on debut run, worth oppossing that day, still like to see if
it can  develop into a group one horse, apart from that was impressed with mac swiney on that ground, wouldn't have any idea if that would be fast enough to win a guineas, could
be a potential derby winner on the right ground.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 23 Jan 21 11:08
hey roadrunner how are the shares going ,any share  tips ?
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 23 Jan 21 11:13
i like the dewhurst winner st marks basilica but too short for me to back it ,will have a look for something at a bigger price each way!
By:
roadrunner46
When: 24 Jan 21 09:17
i put AIRBNB on the politics forum couple of weeks ago at 146, its 181 at moment, maybe the price will dip and you can get a better entry point.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 24 Jan 21 12:50
cheers roady will have a look
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 27 Jan 21 21:08
O'Brien named St Mark's Basilica, crowned Europe's champion two-year-old on Wednesday, as a likely Qipco 2,000 Guineas contender along with Wembley and Van Gogh.

But the participation of 8-1 favourite Battleground is unclear, with O'Brien potentially targeting the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot instead.
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Apr 21 15:41
I think the market is reacting on the good words of AOD on Battleground who was much lesser considered as a Guineas horse more of a Royal Ascot (I believe) than St Mark's Basilica (SMB) and Wembley (W), winner and runner-up in The Dewhurst respectively; Wembley was deemed unlucky that day as the others had 1st run and was on the wrong side too; 3rd Thunder Moon had every chance but soft ground was against him and possibly 1f further did not help.

Battleground is 9/2 fav, but on a line with Cadillac (Breeders Cup) SMB (8/1) and W (9/1) has the beating of him; W (13 here) is drifting like a barge the last few days.
By:
The Dragon
When: 07 Apr 21 13:21
i backed thunder moon yonks ago at 33/1, chuffed to bits if it comes in
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Apr 21 13:54
Battleground has drifted alarmingly and was matched at 9 here (from 5.6). Insider dealing or merely market manipulation? The prices of St Mark's Basilica and Wembley have barely reacted to this drift. How ironic?
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Apr 21 17:42
Battleground looks an increasing likely goner. No respite in the price drift.
By:
sageform
When: 12 Apr 21 19:19
I have no enthusiasm for the race in most years since Aiden had 3 or 4 runners. I did back Kameko though. I always used to look forward to the maidens but there are less stars in them now that many good horses make their debut on the AW. The Alex Scott tomorrow has just 8 runners when it used to have a maximum field. The 1.00 on Sunday over the straight mile at Newbury should produce some Group winners.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 13 Apr 21 13:59
How can you have an ante post bet in the race without knowing the draw which on the Rowley Mile is far more important than form, potential or ability. Cry
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 13 Apr 21 14:42
too late already bet ,just pray you kop the golden highway!
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 13 Apr 21 17:28
Had a bit of the 12s that was available earlier on that Mutasaabeq thing. Now i know nothing about breeding etc but certainly looked impressive to my eye.

Taking a bit of a punt that he'll be supplemented but trainer in interview on rtv didn't say he wouldn't be!
By:
blackbarn
When: 13 Apr 21 18:40
almost certain that he will be supplemented given that Laneqash and Albasheer (probably Shadwells two best chances in the 2000gns) have both met with setbacks and Hill will know how that winner today stacks up against Mujbar who runs shortly.
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 14 Apr 21 11:36
Mutasaabeq bred in the purple out of a Guineas winner.  Dame line goes back to Height Of Fashion and beyond.  Fast time so this is definitely a class animal.
By:
blackbarn
When: 14 Apr 21 12:29
Funny enough LoyalHoncho, it made the short list for my 10 to follow based on its 2yo win, but dropped out at the final stage BECAUSE of its pedigree. Ghanaati was obviously a Guineas winner BUT the BEST of her five offspring is only Afaak, a handicapper, a good C2 one (rpr113), but a handicapper.  It was undoubtedly an impressive seasonal debut though.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 14 Apr 21 12:32
Would he be certain to get a mile mutasaabeq? I got the impression the trainer wasn’t in a hurry with him at this stage
By:
penzance
When: 14 Apr 21 21:20
13s on here,now,Battleground.
Runner?
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 15 Apr 21 07:27
heard battleground could  go elsewhere irish gns or france penzance as ever the word COULD  has to be taken into account .
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Apr 21 14:13
The speckie (not ED who's been left out of the discussion) on ITV about Battleground goind France or elsewhere.
By:
differentdrum
When: 15 Apr 21 16:57
The race is almost priced up like a handicap.

Thunder Moon is one of those at the top end, but surely he looked like a non stayer last season?

Then you have the guessing game of which ones O'Brien will run even before you consider if they are good enough to win. I really liked Van Gogh last year, and he remains an attractive price. Does anyone know why he missed the Craven? The horses that the stable has run this week have not done that well. Perhaps he was too good to run?
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Apr 21 18:20
I think the best form was the Dewhurst where the O'Briens' filled the 1st 3 places. Similarly, the Irish Goffs National Stakes where the same 3 horses occupied the 1st 3 places; the winner Thunder Moon only managed 3rd on soft ground in The Dewhurst. However, I can see Wembley winning over a furlong longer, if not given too much too do. The Goldophin pair have merits but form does not indicate a win from either, I believe.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 15 Apr 21 19:11
Van Gogh beat La Barrosa in France by an effortless 6 lengths which if you like collateral form takes care of The National Stakes particpants and the Dewhurst particpants. However, I am not a big fan of collateral form and the market suggests to me that Van Gogh will particpate in the Guineas as a preparation for the Derby or will wait for one of the other Derby trials.

Van Gogh bolted up in France on very soft ground but Aiden O` Brien suggested recently that he would be more suited by better ground which is likely at Newmarket. My understanding is that the Ballydoyle horses will stable in Newmarket well before the Guineas, I may be wrong but if so and Van Gogh travels I think he will go the Newmarket route. There will be others on here who know better than me. I just hope he meets O`Brien`s high opinion of him and goes to the Derby way shorter than he is now.

As for the Guineas I backed Wembley after the Dewhurst as I thought another furlong would have seen him probably win despite his bad draw. I will trade my position nearer to the time and add One Ruler who beat Van Gogh at Newmarket and ran a big race in the Racing Post Trophy.
By:
penzance
When: 22 Apr 21 19:52
anyone know if Lucky Vega is a goer?
cheers.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 22 Apr 21 20:22
Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds
Backer's stake
Mutasaabeq
1
£75.95
£0.00

Anyone know why this is now no longer in the market? The supplementary stage hasn't happened yet has it?
By:
pipedreamer
When: 22 Apr 21 22:03
Battleground won at Royal Ascot as a two year old.If he runs and wins that will make it 4 out of the last 232 English Classics.
By:
impossible123
When: 24 Apr 21 17:19
I think given the friendly weather forecast good/good to firm anticipated. As such, ideal condition for Thunder Moon giving him the best chance of staying an extra furlong. But, Wembley and St Mark's Basilica will be chomping at the bit for their chance to overhaul him, I believe.
By:
differentdrum
When: 25 Apr 21 13:36
Van Gogh a sea of blue today. What has triggered the move all of a sudden?
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 25 Apr 21 15:53
Suggests he`s a likely runner to me.
By:
Sprinter7
When: 25 Apr 21 18:35
Good news STS it looks like Mutasaabeq is going to be supplemented for the Guineas
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