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irish champion stakes
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Enable beat Magical 7l last year and 5l the previous year on faster ground - so consistency there for course and distance. Anyway if you really believe Magical has an excuse every time she gets beaten by Enable then there's no point discussing it further.
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I've already said that Enable was clearly better as a 3yo so that isn't relevant. Although for anyone conveniently pointing to the 5 length superiority in the 2018 Arc it could also be pointed out that she only beat Magical by an all out 3/4 of a length two runs later. So the superiority wasn't that much by the end of that season. Unless Enable is the only one allowed excuses.
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Apologies, that should read clearly better than the 3yo Magical.
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Enable doesn't need excuses she always beats Magical.
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Well, in the period I'm specifically talking about they've only faced each other twice where both of them ran at least somewhere close to their best form. In the first meeting, the Eclipse, Magical had taken in three softer races on her way to her main early season target, the POW. She had a hard race that day and connections were going to put her away for an end of season campaign but decided to have another roll of the dice. Unusual for her, she was sweaty and edgy before the race. The clock pointed to her running a few pounds below her best and so did the proximity of some finishers behind. Some might see that as right up with her best form. That's up to them but personally I don't.
Before the Yorkshire Oaks O'Brien had said she was just ready to start again but the race she was being trained for was the Irish Champion Stakes. It's debatable whether she ran to her best that day at York. Using the clock again as a guide she was below her best, in my view, and on this occasion I believe O'Brien's comments that he didn't have her in tip top condition. It's very difficult to train these older horses for a specific target and expect them to deliver a similar performance within the space of a few weeks. People have made excuses for Enable in last year's Arc and this year's Eclipse. I actually agree with them that she was below par both times. Even though Waldgeist ran his best ever race in the Arc I have no doubts that Enable would've beaten him if running her best. Whereas even though she was a bit below her best in this year's Eclipse I still think Ghaiyyath would've narrowly beaten her anyway. So two races where Enable had excuses in seasons where she's had extremely light campaigns. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to believe Magical, a mare who has been raced much harder, wasn't quite at her very best in a couple of races she wasn't even specifically targeted at. |
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Hi Figgis
I really fancied Magical to do what she did to Ghaiyyath. Assert pressure. I actually thought if she made the running and asked Enable to go get her she might win but they never employed those tactics till this year. They always seemed intent on giving Enable first run. But in saying that I may have just been clutching at straws. I try to see a way horse A can beat horse B and see if they employ those tactics. Some horses are so closely matched it just comes down to tactics. I did get back some of the money lost on Wichita the other week but I am still not sure what is the best way to ride him. |
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Brigust, but don't you think everyone obsesses over ground, riding tactics, etc, which yes can sometimes be factors, but the simple truth is that most horses can only be brought to peak a couple of times in a season? Wichita was putting up a no show at Goodwood and Deauville however they'd ridden him. Not that it needs endorsing but some of the very best trainers have stated that horses can only run to peak a limited number of times a season. Gosden is no mug. If he thought he could win more Gp1 races with Enable for the last two seasons before the Arc he'd have been trying it. I'd argue that last year she lost the Arc not because of anything that happened on the day, but because of her exploits leading up to the race.
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I am not sure horses can be lumped together like that Figgis. They are all different.
Enable has run 10 times in the last 3 seasons whereas Magical ran 9 times last season alone. How many times did either need to be at their peak? Enable only needed to be at her peak 7 times in those three seasons whereas Magical needed to be at or close to her peak every time. I had a chat with Henry Candy at his stables last week and we got round to why he believes the top horses are running so few times and he thinks it is because an increasing number of them cannot stand training the way they used to. He thinks their bones are getting increasingly weaker and their joints. He had an article in the Racing Post about this particular problem. Added to that increasingly worse animals are entering the breeding pool because more and more horses are required to fill the races. I was reading the new Frankel book the other day and they said when Frankel became a three year old they took the heavier lad off and put a lighter lad on to take the strain of Frankel's legs. When Brigadier Gerard went from two to three they took me off, 8st and put Bob Turner on 10 stone. And he then rode him for the rest of his career. During the winter Henry kept the horses in the covered ride they all did 18 circuits. At Hern's we did that before we went out to the roads or the gallops. Training methods and breeding has changed inexorably. Will it be for the better or the worse? When BG went to stud he covered just over 30 mares a year that was normal, today it is in the hundreds. Frankel will produce more foals in one year than BG or Mill Reef produced in their whole careers. |
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I am not sure horses can be lumped together like that Figgis. They are all different
I never said they are all the same. I don't know about pre-1985, but I do know that since then very very few racehorses have been able to run fast run races repeatedly and run to a peak figure time after time. Nothing has changed since then. |
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I guess the reason Figgis may be that the components you need are:
1) a very good horse with a limited distance range restricting the trainer from operating outside those limited parameters. 2) The horse must be free running but ridden carefully to prevent rapid emptying at the end. 3) The opposition must be very limited in number and ability. 4) The number of races run must be very spread out. 5) The number of races per season must be kept to a strict limit. 6) The connections must have no intention at all to test the horse's true ability. 7) The horse's breeders must refuse to race their best horses against this horse. 8) It helps if the judge of these fast run races actually means fast run part of races not complete races. 9) It helps if the judge of these fast run part races does not understand that fast run full races are a better achievement. 10) All it needs then is enough deluded individuals to believe what they are selling. That is why this member of the species has not been readily available since the mid 1980's. |
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Nothing to do with fast part run races, as that doesn't take as much out of a horse. Nothing to do with horses running over a different distance or unsuitable ground as you wouldn't expect them to run up their best under those circumstances. I'm saying that when a horse is running over its best trip and ground and asked to fully extend in a fast run race and runs to its full potential there is a very limited number of times that MOST horses can repeat that kind of effort in successive races. Many of the horses who have run up a sequence of Gp1s have done it while having the luxury of a slowly run race here or there, or at least not having to be fully extended.
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Well thank goodness dor that. It makes the next question will be so simple for you to answer.
What races are we talking about and what races are you comparing them with to give you this information? |
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*for
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I'm talking about racing at the highest level. Ideally I'd argue that a Gp1 performance can be put up even in a Listed race but that would leave the merit of the performance open to debate, so I'll stick with Gp1 races. There are exceptions but the majority of racehorses are only capable of running peak performances in overall fast run races two or three times in succession before their form takes some kind of dip or they need a break. Many runners are only capable of running a fast peak twice in a season and that's them finished for the year, break or no break.
Taking the Arc as an example, Dylan Thomas as a 4yo was obviously a Gp1 horse but he was a few pounds short of what I'd personally call a really top class older horse. Going into the Arc, in fast run races he put up 5 successive performances where he either ran to the pound or within a couple of pounds of his best each time. Highly unusual. Whereas when Authorized won the Derby he was right up with the fastest Derby winning performances I'd seen. He later beat DT fair and square at York. DT didn't turn the form around with Authorized in the Arc because of the ground, the way he was ridden, etc. He turned it around because Authorized was knackered from earlier efforts. I made the case for Found on here when she won the Arc. However, Postponed had beaten her easily at Epsom. I argued on here that Found had since put up a much improved effort at Leopardstown since that defeat. Nevertheless, that still wasn't enough to turn the form around by as much as 11 lengths. The only reason Found turned the form around so significantly was because Postponed was knackered, which wasn't completely unpredictable beforehand. Perhaps you could give me an example of a Gp1 horse that you think put up very similar winning peak figures in a sequence of fast run races in the last 35 years? |
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I should've clarified that even though Dylan Thomas was a few pounds below the very best older horses he was highly unusual in that he was extremely consistent in running very close to his mark in a sequence of fast run races. He wasn't as good as a peak form Authorized (well not on wfa terms anyway) but he was a much tougher, consistent horse. It was through that rather than ability that he beat Authorized in the Arc.
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I thought not Figgis. I refer you to your comment of 1.54pm yesterday. If you haven't got the guts to back up your statements with solid facts then don't make them.
This is a horse racing forum and I am sure they will get an open discussion plus approval or disapproval of the points you tried to make. |
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And I have to say I thought your comments about Postponed were wrong. Postponed hated going right-handed and I think he injured himself in the Arc.
In his career, before and including the Arc, he ran right-handed on 7 occasions winning twice only very narrowly, hard-fought successes. Going left-handed he ran 6 times and won 6 times winning comfortably every time. After the Arc he returned to Meydan but finished 2nd twice and was retired. |
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If you haven't got the guts to back up your statements with solid facts then don't make them
WTAF are you talking about now? I said very very few horses have been able to run multiple fast races in succession when fully extended. What FACTS do you require? |
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he ran right-handed on 7 occasions winning twice only very narrowly, hard-fought successes
That's funny, as one of those hard fought successes was the KG, which most people had as his best performance at that point in his career. Hilarious how people can spin the FACTS to suit their argument  |
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You do talk utter b olloc ks Figgis.
It was his best form at the time if you care to look. It is just that his form afterwards was better. It was around then they suspected he had a problem but unfortunately most of the very best races are right-handed. Eventually, they discovered a stress fracture. |
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Generous, fast run Derby, fast run Irish Derby, fast run KG. Overcooked for the Arc. Reference Point, got away with a moderately run Derby, fast run Eclipse, fast run KG, fast run St Leger (which he won but showed lower form). Overcooked for the Arc. One of the best examples was Nashwan, fast run Guineas, fast run Derby, fast run Eclipse. Carson went on record saying that in hindsight he wish he hadn't asked Nashwan for as big an effort in the Eclipse, as he just wasn't the same horse afterwards. He said he didn't believe he was up to winning another fast run race, but he knew he could still sprint for a couple of furlongs. The plan was devised to use a pacemaker in the KG but instead of setting a fast pace like everyone expected they would set a slow pace to enable Nashwan to be saved for a finishing kick. The plan worked and Nashwan narrowly beat Cacoethes ( a horse he'd hammered in the Derby) by a very hard fought neck. Nashwan couldn't even win his Arc trial after that.
Those are just three examples from the 80s. There have been endless others since. The exceptions are in a very small minority. You must be lumping on Kameko today in a Gp2 at these odds? |
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It is just that his form afterwards was better
How about comparing the actual form of the races? If he could win a King George on a right handed track, why couldn't he finish ahead of Siljan's Saga in the Arc? |
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Postponed started the 2/1 favourite for the 2016 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe over 2400 metres at Chantilly Racecourse. After tracking the leaders for most of the way he weakened in the straight and finished fifth of the sixteen runners behind Found. Roger Varian said "he was trapped three wide early on and couldn’t get in. It meant he met the big bend on the wrong lead and then he didn’t quicken up like he can. It's disappointing as we went in hoping we would win, but the main thing is we still have a horse to go to war with"
It is no good talking to people who know phuck all about horses. |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wY-RLVxcN-A
No good putting up lame trainer excuses when the video is there for all to see. I guess that excuse sounded better than "Basically he was ****" |
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Who will have the final word?
brigust1 10/11 Figgis 10/11  |
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Postponed ran his ARC in the Coronation Cup and Juddmonte International; he beat Found and Highland Reel (1st and 2nd in the Src) very easily. He was out-manoeuvred by the Coolmore gang.
Postponed would almost certainly have won the Arc if he'd remained with Cumani who'd the Arc as his main target - not Coronation Cup or Juddmonte. |
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That's what you get from people who think horses are a number on spread-sheet. If you got out and spoke to people you just might learn something but I doubt there is room in your head for it.
And why on this earth would he put up lame trainer excuses? Eventually, they found out he had a stress fracture and retired him. Another trainer excuse I suppose. Horses are real you know Figgis. I bet you think they are just imaginary on television, on film and in books.  |
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And why on this earth would he put up lame trainer excuses?
Oh, I dunno, possibly in the hope of protecting the reputation of a future stallion. Or do you think it is only O'Brien and Coolmore that talk crap about their horses? Eventually, they found out he had a stress fracture and retired him Yes they found that out 6 months later after running him another two times. Horses are real you know Figgis Yes they are. That's why they find it difficult to keep replicating form to the pound in fast run races that cause them actual physical stress. Rather than the ridiculous notion that they are machine like beings who would run like clockwork if only foolish connections would ride them like a certain forumite wanted them to be ridden. Thanks for establishing that point  |