Horse Antepost
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ghayiath the odds on fav and will be hard to beat after 4 wins on the bounce and the best horse in europe on official ratings ,last time put up an impressive performance to slam magical who comes back for more tommorow , the fav will obviously be popular on the back of those victorys but is he beatable ? well aob runs 3 and possible one of those( armory) may the sacrificial lamb to give him some company up front putting it up to the fav and possibly setting it up for a closer . japan wasnt far behind far behind the fav at sandown and had excuses last time while sottsass had strong form last season and shouldnt be underestimated . can see the fav getting smashed into shorter so bog and i will take him on with sottsas and japan . around 8/1 and 7s bog ...........win bets .opinions and input encouraged !
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I'd not take Ghaiyyath at this odds but I think he'll win. He beat an unfit Enable; AVD, Magical and Japan - all no world beaters. And, Stradivarius is a marathon runner. I'm hoping Sottsass could serve it up to him given his win in the French Derby.
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Hard to oppose the favourite and may get involved if Pyledriver wins. If not then a watch.
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Ghaiyyath's York win proved I'd badly underrated his Eclipse win by about 5lbs. It was a high class performance at York backed up by the time. I don't see any of the others here improving to match that effort so if I was sure he'd repeat that effort he'd be a bet even at this short price. However, while lots of horses have won multiple big races, many of them, not all, find it very difficult to keep winning after running multiple fast times. Maybe Ghaiyyath is one of the few, but at this price I'll take him on. I can see why the market prefers Magical over Japan, with most thinking Moore is on the wrong one. But while she's capable of taking this if Ghaiyyath is below par, she's already had a busy time and even for a tough mare like her it's going to be hard to maintain that level.
I backed Japan in the King George and while it may have been a stretch to see him beating Enable, he clearly wasn't right. For me, having revised the Eclipse, that effort leaves him second only to the fav on this year's form. There's always a doubt backing a horse after a dismal run and obviously he's also going to need a below par run from the fav, but that's why he's this price, which I still see as value. Actually I think Moore is on the wrong one in the Matron and I'm backing Peaceful as well. |
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just hoping they dont give the fav an easy lead .put it up to him early see what he is made of .
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Yes, ideally, for those opposing him, the other connections should be saying well if he's going to beat them he's going to have to run another fast time.
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a tricky puzzle and if you believe ghaiyyath will repeat the dose he really should win however, i actually thought he had a hard race in the juddmonte
you have to of been disappointed with the mare last time out and she didn't look to me to of been firing on all cylinders tending to lug under pressure but she wasn't knocked about and like a lot of the stables horses was ridden for another day.. i do see her finishing closer today and running well the one i like is sottsass who has looked disappointing from what he has been racing against but from an excellent trainer has been nicely coming to the boil and finally gets some nice ground. for me he still has upside but imo is set to run to his best and i like him in this spot along with the mare but he will do for me i don't like japan as an individual and under pressure he still fails to convince me sos figgis but all the best all the same |
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I knew she was in the wrong place by the rail at York. Yes.
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I have followed this filly forever against Enable now Ghayyaith. It's been a long wait.
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It's about time Magical won. She's been the bridesmaid too many times behind Enable; eyeballed Ghaiyyath, job done. The Arc bubble for Ghaiyyath is truly busted; Sottsass ran a promising race on ground firmer than he liked, and was finishing.
Nevertheless, Enable and Love for the main event at Longchamp next month. |
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Yes harry, as usual the market told a different story to the one that O'Brien and Moore were telling. Japan has clearly gone at the game. Obviously Ghaiyyath underperformed rather than the others improving, as I'm sure Armory wouldn't have got so close in his other Gp1s, but good to see Magical win again.
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well done winners
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what did you make of royal dornoch at a price in the next figgis...bit to find but i liked the set up for him here. you played?
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Harry, no not played. I have very little between the front two in the market but it's just a case of which, if any, are on a going day. Like you say RD does have it to find, but unlike many of these he's a horse that could still be on the up, good luck.
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fair play
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not good enough i knew that was set up for a closer...great old horse that safe voyage
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Ballydoyle tactics worked well with Magical and Japan forcing Ghaiyyath to work too hard too early to stay in front so not having enough left for the finish. The close proximity of 66-1 Armory who ran on from the back suggests they went quickly early on and were all tiring at the end but Magical's proven stamina was the deciding factor.
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did you not think he worked hard at york AT in regards to getting taken on today early...personally i think he paid for that effort last time. I agree they softened him up today but he didn't have it today and underperformed
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Playground bully that's all. He is a good horse I am not denying that but 'best in the world?' Why do they always think everything is the best in the world?
I have always liked Magical yet when she serves it up to this playground bully everyone is defending him. It was brilliant and she just powered away. She beat him miles before yet it was such a shame he wasn't able to be allowed to do his own thing, get his own way. What a shame. I didn't win back what she owes me but that doesn't matter I cheered her all the way. She is a wonderful filly/mare. I thought she would do the same to Enable but Enable isn't a playground bully she was just too good. |
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a good horse ought to be able to overcome adversity like that presented yesterday by Ballydoyle - they tried all sorts of ways to get Sea The Stars beaten but to no effect
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playground bully brigust i don't get any of you're comments tbh just because you have picked the winner and you like her so much, i don't think insulting the second is fair here...i also had a bit on her but look at the bigger picture before slating the loser
i once did a lot of horse study on performance and ghaiyyath imo was asked to go and steel a horse race yesterday, when clearly over the top after 2 big efforts in a row this time after a big effort 3 weeks ago his latest effort at york when the mare was given a considerate ride and was clearly ridden for another day was the difference here imo if you look at ghaiyyath and his run style you will know he has pace, on this occasion buick did not want to go fast and conserve his horse energy as he knew there was nothing in the tank. I remember the shadwell boys saying before the king george that the great horse was over the top (nashwan) but they went slow in order to look after him and try and steel a race, they pulled it off ghaiyyath did not yesterday but i don't feel the need to slate my opening post on this thread said i thought he had a hard race in the juddmonte and i stick by it after the race...it'll be interesting if they freshen him up now but he could be done but you never know...they have picked there fights well with the mare and here was another well picked fight after a nice education at york |
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Sorry Harry, it's just a term people use and it was all over the media that he was a horse that likes his own way and doesn't like to be pushed. That is what a playground bully is. I have a different take on York that Magical and Komeko were running against the far rail which was the wrong place to be and I thought she would have been a lot closer that day. And I backed Kameko in the QE11 on that basis. I don't know if that is right but that is what the results seemed to show. And I don't accept for one minute he was over the top from 4 runs this year which it appeared he won reasonably within himself and unchallenged. He is five now and lightly raced. And with the proximity of the third horse yesterday I am not sure he ran any sort of a race, possibly because he hates to be pressed and sulks. I think that is nearer the truth.
Just as an aside H if you are looking at space between races Brigadier Gerard won his first 5 races as a 4 year old in 9 weeks including the POW, Eclipse and King George in 4 weeks, Magical ran her 5 races this season in 15 weeks and Ghaiyyath ran his 5 races this season in 29 weeks. |
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yeah i get the brigadier thing and other horses have done it who may of been tougher than him.
in ghaiyyath's case who is a front runner who uses himself and clearly puts it all in, i don't feel he backed up yesterday and i think they punted on him be able to put those horses away yesterday in a prestige race. it has always been reported he puts it all in and i think he did at york with the rider being over hard in the furlong which was unnecessary considering he was clear. anyway i won't be holding against him, he has still been a very good horse this season in an average year of quality horses |
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I've not seen a better 10f performance this season than those put up by Ghaiyyath earlier this year. Yesterday's result ended up a below par level for the race. Even Magical didn't run quite as well as she had at York. Armory isn't up to much. Lots of big performances come from horses who are just in the form of their life for a short period. Especially when we're talking about horses who peak late in their career, as Ghaiyyath has. The fact that they can't keep repeating that level doesn't detract from the performances they put up at the time. Well, at least, it doesn't in other sports where the followers have some perspective.
Very, very few horses can keep running fast times repeatedly. Many past winners who kept winning Gp1s got away with it here and there, a Guineas against non stayers, a slow run Derby, etc. As for Ghaiyyath being a playground bully and not liking it up him, that is just ridiculous. Yesterday's was a well run race but they didn't go mad, Magical was never further than a length behind Ghaiyyath and for much of the race she was closer than that. People are talking as though Ghaiyyath got away with setting a slow pace and then quickening in his other races. That isn't what happened. |
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We will just have to wait and see I guess and this is, as you said Figgis, an unusual season. Unless he continues to get soft races like his last four then others may now see how to beat him. It has been all over the media before and afterwards. Sady AOB is the only trainer who may have the horses to test that, other than Godolphin. If, as you say, they never went mad yesterday then perhaps he couldn't fancy a fight. He has had 4 simple tasks for the best horse in the world. An easy at Meydan after a long break, a fast time at Newmarket with a strong following wind, an unfit Enable and Japan, then the run of the race on the best part of the course at York. All this over a more than 6 month period. Frankel only took 24 weeks for his 5 races.
Personally I think he is a very good horse with a problem. And I suspect the only way that was tested was because AOB has so many good horses. It will be interesting what the future holds. |
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Brigust, he may bounce back to his best, I know other 5yos like him have but can't think of them off the top of my head. Personally I'd be inclined to oppose him again, as I think more often than not when horses like him decline it continues for the rest of the season, with Poet's Word and Crystal Ocean being recent examples.
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Where will he go next, stud? My guess is the BC Turf. That will suit his running style and if Magical goes to the Champion Stakes and wins it then she may miss the BC as she did last year. However, if she goes for the Filly and Mares at Ascot she may then go for the BC before stud. It is a bit of a head-scratcher for the boys in blue.
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I also believe because he won in Meydan that gave him a fitness edge the others never had.
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basically your giving him no credit for any of his wins brigust? judging by your comments trying to get a victory of why he won his races this season
disgusting really considering how fast he has ran...you'll argue about a track bias at york but the other horses were already out of there comfort zone at the top of the straight...i think you've talked a lot of nonsense to suit your argument on this thread tbh |
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You are entitled to your opinion H. I will keep mine about what you wrote to myself, thanks.
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what makes me laugh brigust is you give him no credit for any of his wins, yet you back kameko to win a race later in the season, it just doesn't make any sense to me
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so kameko deserves credit and worth a bet later in the year for running like a pig, yet the winner who has run fast and destroyed him worth nothing at all. i don't think fitness was a worry for any runners that day tbh yet you knock him i find it very odd tbh
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Harry, you have to indulge Brig a bit, that`s the first winner he`s had since Australia won the Derby.
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You could be right there Felt. And my bet on Raabihah doesn't look as good as it was this morning.
 Harry when assessing horses I look at their good points and their not so good points. Kidding yourself can be costly. I know, I've backed Magical every time she has run against Enable and Ghayyaith. If that is a problem for you I'm sorry but why should I lie? I think Ghaiyyath is a very good horse, I've said that but I also think he doesn't like being pressured, that he has had a long break between runs, that he has had some easyish targets and that at York I thought he was racing on a better part of the course than Kameko and Magical. They are the facts as I see them, if you disagree I don't call you names or accuse you of anything. This is horseracing and, thankfully, we all have different views often about the same thing. That is fine with me and really it should be fine with you. |
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Looks like a non stayer to me Brig but only a trial.
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I'm hoping the faster ground, the real target in mind may have been the reason. I remember Treve won this race and it wasn't great form but she won the Arc next. Today's race looked better and he did look to be saving a bit. Let's hope today wasn't the day.
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I thought she would do the same to Enable but Enable isn't a playground bully she was just too good
Brigust, no question that Enable was clearly superior to Magical in her 3yo season. Last year when they met twice Magical had no excuse with the ground or the way the races were run. That said, do you think Magical was in peak form on both of those occasions? I definitely do not. |
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I mean the Eclipse and Yorkshire Oaks meetings, as Magical obviously didn't run her race in the Arc.
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that's 3 excuses Figgis. any more?
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A_T, so you think Magical ran her race in the Arc?
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