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brigust1
16 Aug 20 09:58
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Date Joined: 07 Dec 01
| Topic/replies: 12,509 | Blogger: brigust1's blog
Looks like a good race and a close one according to the Official Ratings.

They have Palace Pier and Circus Maximus on 120, Romanised on 118 and Persian King and Alpine Star on 117. Does that mean they expect Palace Pier and Circus Maximus to dead heat with Romanised a length away and the other two half a length behind? Just checking so that I can see what they do with the ratings after the race.

I have it close between Alpine Star and Palace Pier with possibly slight preference for the filly on this ground. If I have a bet it will be a coward's bet by backing both.
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Report A_T August 16, 2020 11:24 AM BST
Palace Pier seems vert short-priced - looked good at Acscot but might just have been staying on past Pinatubo. Wichita hardly advertised the form next time. Prefer Alpine Star.
Report driver2 August 16, 2020 11:58 AM BST
I think it's highly significant that Frankie's in Deauville, I'm sure that Palace Pier has come on since Ascot and is fully expected to beat these. Too short I agree, but I couldn't oppose him.
Report Sandown August 16, 2020 1:07 PM BST
Drawn to the AP forum in a long while purely because I hope to see a top class performance from Palace Pier today and it's worth the risk of being proved wrong, just to comment on him.

On my figures, PP recorded a top-class time rating at Ascot, one I haven't seen for a while. The official handicapper has to use collateral ratings as his methodolgy with just a reference to the clock and consequently it takes a while for offical ratings and RPR's to catch up with just how good a horse is because of the need to relate everything to other horses in the race.

Placing PP on 120 (OR) or 124 (RPR) underestimates that performance by, in my opinion, maybe as much as 10lbs or more. Too much, too high, I hear some of you saying.?

On the same day at Ascot, Alpine Star finished her race 0.17 secs faster than PP  carryin 2lbs more so on final times she comes out +4lb over PP. But, her finishing split was 25.75 secs for the final 2f a full 2.36 slower than PP which is a huge difference. I have no doubt that on the Ascot runs PP will beat AS comfortably.

As to the form since Ascot, Pinutubo did not let it down when winning the G1 Jean Prat over 7f but Wichita has seemingly regressed since , at Goodwood and Deauville. I can't explain that regression unless the 2 hard races in June are an explanation.

Persian King is top-class but his figures don't match those of PP either on the clock or on collateral form.

In summary, PP should win this race comfortably even though the ground is given as heavy which it is not imo based on yesterday's times. Its nearer gs which it was at Ascot.You can get odds against for an odds on chance and is value even at his short odds.
Report Figgis August 16, 2020 1:30 PM BST
I have it very tight between the main four colts, so not an obvious betting situation, but I think it can be narrowed down as I'm not confident about some of them being primed to give their best. I see Timeform have Palace Pier's SJP win above average for the race, but I just have it on par with an average renewal and equal to this year's below par 2000 Guineas. A lot has been made of the fast late sectionals he put up at Ascot, with the inference that he's better than the bare form. If he does go on to prove that right I'll bow to that analysis, but I have doubts, as, for me, it seems that's as good as he is and he looked to have quite a hard race that day. If he has recovered from that run and even only replicates that form it will still give him a winning chance today and it appears connections are confident. However, I have no interest in him at this price and he can win with no regrets from me at these kind of odds.

Strictly on ratings I have Circus Maximus top, but I have him 3lbs below that last time and after a couple of hard races he's going to need to be very tough to run close to his mark again today. In my view, Persian King is a horse who has still never run faster than he did as a 2yo. He ran right up to his very best last time and I think it's more likely he'll take another dip in form rather than go on from that. As to the filly, at first I took a positive view of her Coronation Stakes win, especially as it seemed a comparatively good time and she won by four lengths. Stamina excuses could be made for her run in France. However, on revisiting the Coronation Stakes video I think the race fell apart around her with the opposition running well below form and I'm taking the view she probably didn't improve significantly that day after all.

So that leaves last year's winner Romanised. Even though it was only a Gp2 last time I have him running a 2lbs improved career peak. Condon said they'd done a lot of work with him in preparation, so it's just possible that they had him 100% and he peaked there, leaving today's race behind. Hopefully, though, there was a bit left to work on, and he only managed to get a clear run late on and quickened past comfortably when given the chance. I'm hoping there might even be a couple of pounds more improvement in him and he's my bet.
Report FELTFAIR August 16, 2020 1:36 PM BST
A fascinating race but one to swerve probably. Just had a shilling on Persian King and Alpine Star.
Report FELTFAIR August 16, 2020 1:36 PM BST
A fascinating race but one to swerve probably. Just had a shilling on Persian King and Alpine Star.
Report brigust1 August 16, 2020 1:43 PM BST
In the post-race analysis for Wichita is says 'Led at a steady pace, joined 2 out' seems a bit of a sprint to me. That may be why the late sectionals looked good and Pinatubo stated that much longer.
Report brigust1 August 16, 2020 1:43 PM BST
*stayed
Report Figgis August 16, 2020 1:44 PM BST
Sandown, just to clarify, the reference to the sectionals was in regard to what I have read elsewhere, as I hadn't read your post when I posted mine. Interesting though that you have reached a similar conclusion to the others, so it seems the sectional enthusiasts are largely in agreement. I have often found that these projections work better when taken from slowly run races, or at least races where the final time was somewhat compromised due to the pace. In my opinion, despite the SJP being a slow early/fast late style of race the final time was not hindered at all. If PP does put up a top class showing I'll readily concede I was wrong.
Report brigust1 August 16, 2020 1:52 PM BST
Figgis, how do you read Pinatubo beating Lope Ye Fernandez 3/4 length with Malotru rated 109 Third? And Palace Pier with Wichita, Positive and Arizona all well stuffed since.
Report Figgis August 16, 2020 2:03 PM BST
Brig, well even though most people seemed to take the view Pinatubo improved last time, I don't. Strictly speaking I have it 1lb better than his SJP run, but even though I mark it down as 1lb higher, for all intents and purposes it is basically the same effort. 1lb here or there can just be the difference in saving or losing a bit of ground. In my view, even though I've stated I think Pinatubo was overrated last year, I say he's running a good 9lbs below what he was capable of last year. That isn't because others have caught him up, it's because he's running slower.
Report brigust1 August 16, 2020 2:18 PM BST
I have to admit I'm struggling to get a handle on the milers this time. I did think Pinatubo was the 2nd coming but that has crashed and burned. Even though he was beaten in the Guineas and the 5th horse kept the form down I had hoped it would work out but the winner has been beaten twice, Wichita cannot win or even run well and the 5th horse has been well stuffed as well. I couldn't rate Circus Maximus's win at Ascot because the 2nd horse was beaten against her own sex and Maries Diamond has been beaten all over since. It's as clear as mud.  And Mohaather, 33s when he won the Horris Hill, has come out of the woodwork along with today's favourite. Perhaps if Kameko had a clear run at Goodwood things may look differently.
Report penzance August 16, 2020 2:34 PM BST
Persian King around 4/1 rates a good bet here
imo.
   GL ALL
Report brigust1 August 16, 2020 2:39 PM BST
Good afternoon Sandown, how are you keeping in these strange times? Has t affected your everyday activities much?
Report Sandown August 16, 2020 2:49 PM BST
Hi Brig. No.. It's not changed my life a great deal. What has changed is that I have spent a lot of time getting to grips with producing as accurate a pricing and staking methodology as I can as these are the variables that determine my profitability more than anything else. So, I spend more time on the computer these days.
Report penzance August 16, 2020 2:55 PM BST
good performance.
Shame that missed the Guineas.
Report Figgis August 16, 2020 2:55 PM BST
Very well done Sandown, pretty impressive performance.
Report A_T August 16, 2020 3:32 PM BST
looks like the best miler since his sire - runner-up no slouch either
Report driver2 August 16, 2020 3:54 PM BST
Sometimes picking up the form book can be a waste of time, Frankie goes to Deauville, RELAX just do it!
Report penzance August 16, 2020 4:16 PM BST
could they go Champion Stks?
Looks like he'll get 10F,to me.
Report driver2 August 16, 2020 4:19 PM BST
I think he'll need 10f on decent ground
Report FOYLESWAR August 16, 2020 6:50 PM BST
5 lenths  back to the 3rd who is no mug!
Report Figgis August 17, 2020 3:01 PM BST
Those who thought Palace Pier better than the bare SJP form were clearly correct. It's also clear, at least to me, that most of the other runners didn't perform to their best with some struggling on the ground (soft based on times). I have PP improving 4lbs on his SJP form. This doesn't make him an exceptional horse as yet, but it's the best 3yo mile form shown this year. Given the pace of the race, there seems no case to be made this time that he could be better than the bare form on that score. Although it may be that he could do better on faster ground. He was well on top before the finish but had to be really pushed beforehand and it's possible that was due to the ground not being ideal.
Report brigust1 August 17, 2020 4:56 PM BST
I haven't seen the race gain yet Figgis but I was wondering about the ground. JG has said he won't be sending PP to the US because they will be too quick for him and twice mentioned the potentially softer going for the QE11 and the Moulin.
Report A_T August 17, 2020 5:28 PM BST
he didn't say they'd be too quick he was concerned about the tight turns.
Report Figgis August 17, 2020 5:58 PM BST
Gosden has said he'd prefer good to soft ground for the horse. I have no idea why he has said that instead of good ground, as I can't recall seeing one whose requirements were so narrowly specific. Yesterday's ground wasn't quite what I'd usually call heavy judging by the times, but it was definitely soft. And unlike some soft ground they weren't ploughing through it easily, a few of them floundered. Again, with this being such a high profile runner likely to be short in future markets, until proving otherwise I'm inclined to rate him on the bare form, but I said that after the SJP. I'm just putting it out there that it's possible he could do better on better ground.
Report penzance August 17, 2020 6:52 PM BST
just watched a replay,winner won well but
was it a case of him handling the ground
best?.Rest were struggling a long way out,
Romanised stopped to walk,looked like finishing
in front of Persain King at one stage.Good run
but was it exagerated?
Report brigust1 August 17, 2020 7:12 PM BST
Figgis it may not be his ability to handle fast ground but to may be the reason he was late to the track. He is trying to avoid leg problems perhaps. I didn't see anything that told me he was a soft ground horse so he may just be minding his legs.
Report Figgis August 17, 2020 7:45 PM BST
Brig, yes that was my guess too. Personally I think any really decent flat horse should be able to perform to its best on good ground (it was the slow side of good at Royal Ascot). Gosden said that the horse was hating the soft ground at Deauville. That's entirely possible but would carry a bit more weight if he hadn't said good to soft would be perfect. So I'd say "hating" the ground was stretching things a bit, but possibly he could've done a little better on drier ground.
Report elisjohn August 17, 2020 9:04 PM BST
i honestly thought 2 out the  horse i backed was a certainty, romanaised.
Report layingisthewayforward August 18, 2020 9:25 AM BST
What are peoples thoughts on Palace Pier v Mohaather at ascot in October?  I would be with Mohaather as he has the superior turn of foot. Obviously the ground would be a factor as it can get very soft in October.
Report brigust1 August 18, 2020 12:37 PM BST
I don't know Laying. PP seems to have more substance than Mohaather who seems to have more style. The whole picture is littered with AOB horses. Mohaather won the Sussex Stakes well but how hampered was Kameko? PP beat Alpine Star but how good is she?
PP beat Pinatubo who won 2 Group 1s as 2 y o beating Arizona, Wichita, Year of the Tiger, Monarch of Egypt and Armory. I can now see how wrong I was thinking he was the 2nd coming.
Mohaather beat Siskin, most peoples lay of the week, and San Donato. And was 33/1 to win the Horris Hill. He beat Great Scott in the Greenham who was beaten 7 lengths by Magna Grecia in the 2000 Gns.

Circus Maximus beat Terrebellum, Romanised and King of Comedy in photographs and was well beaten by Too Darn Hot.   

Kameko may hold the key but no-one really rated him before either the 2000 Gns or the Derby.

Only Pinatubo was on the radar at the beginning of the year with PP and Mohaather hardly heard of.

Love is the same. Beaten in maidens and a Gr2 and by Quadrilateral as a 2 y old bolted up in the 1000 Gns and Oaks and is now well fancied for the Arc.

The whole lot is a mess.
Report Figgis August 18, 2020 1:05 PM BST
Love is the same. Beaten in maidens and a Gr2 and by Quadrilateral as a 2 y old bolted up in the 1000 Gns and Oaks and is now well fancied for the Arc.

I can never understand the refusal to believe that some horses can improve out of previous recognition in a few months. The fastest Derby winner, in my view, in all the time I've been following racing was Generous. He was nothing special as a 2yo and even the Dewhurst he won was crap. Not placed in an ordinary Guineas but boy did he improve in the Derby.
Report brigust1 August 18, 2020 1:23 PM BST
I have been around horses enough to know they improve but it is no coincidence you back 40 years for a good example. Generous was a good horse who benefitted from 12f. The races he ran well in as a 2 y o were not great races and nor was the Mysiko 2000 gns. Love is running against the same horses.
Report Figgis August 18, 2020 1:44 PM BST
it is no coincidence you back 40 years for a good example

I went back 40 years because that is still the fastest Derby winner I've seen, and an example that even the best can leave moderate form behind. There are countless other good horses who have improved on pretty ordinary early 2yo form, Minding, Australia, King's Best, Ouija Board. Plus many, many more that made bigger than average improvement from 3 to 4, or even 5.

Love is running against the same horses

Not even sure if there is a point to this statement? I would've thought the only point to be made is that any horses that were getting close to her as a 2yo are now being thrashed by her.
Report brigust1 August 18, 2020 1:57 PM BST
Terrible examples, terrible.  I really haven't the time thanks. If you miss the point, there you are!
Report Figgis August 18, 2020 2:06 PM BST
I think anyone who is moaning what a mess it is that only 10 weeks into a season we don't have a firmly established pecking order that everyone is in agreement on is a funny kind of punter Wink
Report brigust1 August 18, 2020 2:42 PM BST
That's correct, not the slur about the punter but I'll ignore that.

Here we are 10 weeks in and potentially the best 3 year old milers/10 furlong horses wouldn't have been high on anyone's list at the beginning of the season and the best older miler the same. Many pre season lists have crashed and burned by horses almost completely unheard of 10 weeks ago.
Report Figgis August 18, 2020 2:52 PM BST
Some people must have very short memories then. It's hardly unusual for the top rated 2yo to disappoint the following season. The Gurkha, Toronado, Proclamation, Distant View, etc, weren't exactly at the top of most people's lists either.
Report brigust1 August 18, 2020 2:55 PM BST
WE are not talking about horses on top of the list we are talking about horses not even on the flying list! Not short memories, no memories.
Report Figgis August 18, 2020 3:02 PM BST
Right, so the Gurkha was somewhere on your list as a potential 3yo Gp1 winner at the start of the season was he? Proclamation? Distant View? Zilzal? Soviet Star? I say bollocks Wink
Report Sandown August 18, 2020 3:21 PM BST
There was a mile handicap on the card and using that for comparative purposes, I would say that PP did not run to the same level (on MY assessment) that he ran to at Ascot. Nevertheless, he was rated 3lbs higher on RPR's. Most likely that was down to the ground but in coming past the whole field in the final 3 furlongs and winning comfortably against proven G1 horses, I would not downgrade his potential level of ability from that which I expected before the race. As to his best distance, I would say that 10f is within his capability but I couldn't say for sure that he would improve for it.He might.For now, on good ground or gs he looks as though a strongly run race suits him well.

The ground was given as heavy which on times it was not but visually it looked at least soft. Romanised's connections said beforehand that the ground wouldn't suit whilst I'm sure that PK would be better on better ground.
Report brigust1 August 18, 2020 4:39 PM BST
Figgis you said The Gurka was top rated, I never even thought about it. Give it a rest. I think it's a mess but that is probably just me. I'm sure everyone else knows exactly what is going on. Wink

You could be right S. THe ground certainly looked testing on the principles. I'm not sure about PK though. That form looks a bit thin for me. I did think the race was between the first two but erred on the side of the filly with a saver on the other. I like fillies/mares on soft/heavy ground.
I did send you a message S, did you get it?
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