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National Hunt 20/21 Big Races Thread

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Replies: 1,543
By:
nocturnal
When: 20 Mar 21 01:19
Top Bombing GI Cool
By:
Facts
When: 20 Mar 21 09:31
You had an outstanding Cheltenham noc. Well done.

Mine was .......well let's just say I've had better.!!
Well done all in profit this NH season

The Flat Hcap's beckon. Starting with the Irish Lincoln at The Curragh tomorrow Cool

See you guys on the new Flat Season  thread whenever it's up
By:
GI MAC
When: 20 Mar 21 10:38
Thanks

3.15 Kemp
Manofthemountain 0.5pt win @ 14/1 (B3.6.5)
By:
GI MAC
When: 20 Mar 21 10:42
3.35 Utt
Mighty Thunder 0.5pt win @ 18/1 (WH)
By:
Fabulous
When: 20 Mar 21 10:44
I’ll give the flat thread a bash Facts, see you there

1350 Uttoxeter - Milvale 0.9pt Win 10’s (Various)
By:
Fabulous
When: 20 Mar 21 11:00
1515 Kempton - Domaine De L’Isle 0.45pts EW 22’s (B365)
By:
Fabulous
When: 20 Mar 21 14:58
1425 Uttoxeter - Seemorelights 0.5pt Win 16’s (Various)
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Mar 21 15:14
3:00 Uttox Illegal Model 1pt ew 8/1 3.65
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Mar 21 15:41
3.35 Uttox Truckers Lodge 1pt ew 25/1. Captain Drake 1pt ew 14/1 3.65
By:
Fabulous
When: 20 Mar 21 16:26
Midlands National - Ramses De Teille 0.4pt EW 40’s (Sky 7pl)
By:
nocturnal
When: 20 Mar 21 16:34
WP Fab Cool

3-35 uttox

Screaming Colours 0.5pt

Truckin Away 0.25pt

Truckers Lodge 0.25 pt
By:
Fabulous
When: 20 Mar 21 16:54
Irish National - Time To Get Up 0.8pt Win 14’s (Uni)
By:
Fabulous
When: 20 Mar 21 16:54
Thanks Noc
By:
GI MAC
When: 20 Mar 21 16:57
wp fab
By:
Fabulous
When: 20 Mar 21 17:07
Thanks Mac
By:
harry callaghan
When: 20 Mar 21 17:27
The mrs still in jackpot here for 50p at uttoxeter...lady cylia for the girl
By:
harry callaghan
When: 20 Mar 21 17:59
Oh well took 530 out in the run for her...her biggest ever win not bad for her 3 pound stake...shame got boxed 3 out otherwise she may of copped 3k touch in the run...sickening but she’s delighted

Typical she got the placepot up at Cheltenham Thursday but just for 20p not bad considering she started at 5p...I’ll just follow her in in future (witch)Cryshe’s like venitia Williams tbh sat at the end of the couch picking winners for pounds when you’ve had the nuts on another oneLaugh
By:
Fabulous
When: 20 Mar 21 18:31
Very unlucky Harry, but still a nice consolation bonus
By:
nocturnal
When: 20 Mar 21 18:31
GI ..... Mighty Thunder Cry,not quite going your way,fine selection.

Been there Harry ..... Known in the family as "Pinstickers",some weeks they are untouchable.

+54 85

pm/cdn/f ball -0.75
b banter +9.74  (39.98)
sod/fakiera -0.66
vanillier +7  (22.0)
frod/kem/lit -1
suaf/Ictp/ms -1
molcq/sc/sals -1
fa/ddp/fa/gab -1.25
sc/ta/t lodge -1

+64.93 / 0 IP
By:
harry callaghan
When: 20 Mar 21 19:57
Well done you boys by the way this past week

I know what your saying noc but she's had s form book rammed down her for 11 years since we met at the races...she was win that night as well...just makes you feel ill tbh

Anyway been a witch since I met her I swear she was into voodoo before I met her...just sits there and says I've backed this when it's butted you in a photoLaugh
By:
harry callaghan
When: 20 Mar 21 20:04
That is how lucky she is the second trade was at 2.54 of course it only goes 2.5 before collapsing quicker than a cheap millets tentExcitedGrin
By:
harry callaghan
When: 20 Mar 21 21:24
I tell you what though desperately unlucky when you think about it, just to get 5 winners for her stake was a great effort...she’s delighted but I’ve only ever nailed the placepot and never sniffed the jackpot...495k in the pot today...I said to her how lucky she is...she said “I spent all morning picking them what you talking about” Laugh...after she nailed the placepot Thursday maybe I’ll reign it in
By:
GI MAC
When: 21 Mar 21 12:23
4.10 Kel
Dimple 0.5pt win @ 28/1 (WH)
By:
Fabulous
When: 21 Mar 21 13:26
Ulster National
Amaulino 0.4pt Win 16’s
Frankly All Talk 0.45pt EW 33’s
Both Sky
By:
Fabulous
When: 21 Mar 21 23:22
A lot of wasted points.

My worst race of the season is The Grand Annual. I think I’ve had two horses placed in it ever. I just can’t read it. So what do I do? Give away 3.3 points. Mad. The Boodles was a bet for the sake of a bet. Today’s Ulster National bets, bets for the sake of a bet.

The small backups mount up too. Ok Corral, Western Miller, Three Stripe Life, and Fabulous Saga were 2.4pts wasted.

No issues with the other losers, and I’d bet them again.

B/F  +43.53   IP 16.1

Ulster -1.3
Uttoxeter -3.6
Zoffanien -1.4
Ultima -1.4
Great White Shark -1
Grand Annual -3.3
Three Stripe Life -0.5
Samcro -0.9
Kim Muir -2.2
Hunters -1.7
Mares Chase -2.2
Martin Pipe -2.1
Happy Diva -0.4
Pertemps -1.5
County -1
Coral Cup -2.5

Time To Get Up -0.8

NRNB - Dashel Drasher +0.9
Vintage Clouds +28.8
Petit Mouchoir  +5.04
Coole Cody +3.22
Domaine De L’Isle 11.88

C/F  +66.07   IP 5.6
By:
nocturnal
When: 22 Mar 21 01:32
Sixty odd points in the black .... yet still self critical.... Hard to argue with.

From day 1 you have been a complete conundrum to me,in a good way.

Very rare to see someone who can accurately predict a horses long term target,way in advance of others.

I get the same feeling with GI as well,way ahead of my thinking more often than not.

Back to the "Lazy bets" scenario,they drive me insane,its like a ten second meltdown,unexplainable.

This years classic ..... Lostintranslation 0.33pt Gold Cup ....wtf,never rated the horse Cry

I could not give one decent reason for putting him up,apart from price,where do they come from ?

One question Fab ..... what do the figures tell you about antepost versus day of the race betting?

Second point is a general observation of the bigger priced winners in recent months posted on here.

The ones that spring to mind,by different posters,the vast majority appear to be over a staying distance,in both hurdles and chases.

Something I will be looking at when its done and dusted,or is this just co-incidence ?

Still some good stuff to look forward to.
By:
Fabulous
When: 23 Mar 21 12:25
Cheers Noc, yeah, suppose looks a bit daft complaining, but that’s definitely a Festival I’d like another crack at. It was just when I was topping up the losers, I was just shaking my head.

I suppose you have to look at it when things are going ok, as if you start trying to address it when things are going badly, then that’s maybe when you lose the run of yourself. I remember my first season on this thread, 15/16, and I just got away with it, Village Vic saved my bacon. I had been on a long losing run from the season before, big races were fine, but the backup ones were killing me. I was off the back of Cheltenham 14/15. Three decent winners, all 20’s+, and I just limped over the line, so I had long look at it then. If I had continued what I was doing, I definitely wouldn’t be posting on here. I like posting on here, keeps you disciplined. I had a great 2012 Cheltenham, unreal, and I went into 2013 Festival like “Billy Big Balls”, and it was torture,, not one winner, I think only a couple placed, and I was also an Oscar Delta backer at crazy price. The contrast to 2012 was soul destroying, and I remember then, looking at everything from stakes, methodology, Antepost etc, and changing things. Think that’s another reason to look again, even if you’ve had a few good results.

That Lostintranslation is perfect example. Look at the awesome Cheltenham you had, and I bet it’s still bugging you that one lol. That was probably my whole point, you look at these bets and go “wtf”. That was me with the losers i singled out. I had, The Grand Annual should have been half a point EW ON Or Jaune De Somoza, but managed to waste 3.3pts on a race I’ve never came close to winning on.

Think I’ve touched on it before, it’s mad the way the head works, I’m sure I’m. It the only one, when I have a winner or loser, I genuinely think of my total on here, nearly as much as the won/lost cash. Weird. I had three horses in that Grand Annual, and they were all tailed off. I was definitely more hacked off with my total on here, and putting up three howling selections, or dog muck Laugh as Harry would call them, rather than the money lost.

My Antepost vs Day of race? Not 100%, as I lay all selections if I can at some stage, and would have to go through a lot of bets. Perfect example would be Gee Rex. Down as a 1pt loser on the flat thread, but if you look on the other place, I bet him 25’s a fortnight ago, so I laid him before the off, so a 0 race will read -1 on here. There’s loads of variables for other selections. I lost 1.9pts with Time To Get Up on this thread, but I took my stake back via partial cash out on the Monday. It’s very difficult to coney that accurately, but I’m close to certain my Antepost will read much better than the figs here would suggest. I think varies season to season though.

The biggest mistake I made Antepost this season was dipping my toe in the “any race” markets. I had one big one, Champagne Platinum. That was with a view to Coral Cup, but I just didn’t fancy him for Pertemps much. I think “any race” is ok months out, but nearer the time, NRNB is a no brainer. One bet I didn’t put up here was Wide Receiver, took 20’s any race last October. That was with a view to Martin Pipe. I could get 10’s NRNB for that race in February. He had a setback and didn’t go. I know which way I’d rather have bet him.

I’m fairly certain that the longer the distance in NH, the better results. I’m not sure why, but probably straightforward.

I hope all that makes sense, and not rambling too much.
By:
Fabulous
When: 23 Mar 21 12:31
Irish National
Koshari 0.45pts EW 33’s (PP 5pls)
Longhouse Poet 0.5pt Win 14’s (Hills)
Ten Ten 0.9pt Win 25’s (Sky)
By:
harry callaghan
When: 23 Mar 21 13:16
and putting up three howling selections, or dog muck Laughas Harry would call them


Apologies the muck term fab isn’t to do with dog litter, I wouldn’t slate you in regards to dog muck...I’m far more respectful

it is a term from poker, ie 2-6 off suit “straight in the muck”Grin not sure that helps...the only advice I’d offer for you fab is scrap January and February and jump on nocs train as these are his winning months, when you clearly hit the bottle or a tube of glueDevil

I always like to see what you boys are tipping, I won’t say what I think some days but other days you all seem to pull one out the fire...confidence is always something I always observe in punters and it certainly works that way for you boys and most punters tbh...the game just seems easier when things are going punters way and when the brain is fried and confidence is low it’s very difficult to find the rhythm that makes you tick
By:
Fabulous
When: 23 Mar 21 13:46
No offence taken Harry, I really did find it funny, and you weren’t wrong Grin
By:
harry callaghan
When: 23 Mar 21 15:13
Good stuff fab your a good judge, you don’t need me to tell you that...

I’m trying to eradicate the junk from my betting at the moment, it isn’t easy as there is plenty of itLaugh
By:
harry callaghan
When: 23 Mar 21 15:14
I hate being a mercenary at times, can’t help myself to be honest thoughGrin
By:
GI MAC
When: 23 Mar 21 20:59
Antipost
Topham
Senior Citizen 0.5pt win @ 14/1 (WH)
By:
nocturnal
When: 23 Mar 21 22:33
Interesting GI .... Quite a strong stats race over the years.

Only had a brief look,couple from the Kim Muir entered,.

Be interested in the Kerry Lee horse this far out,not sure he gets a truly run 3m,this could be right up his street.

Always like them up with the pace jumping these fences,getting a clear sight of the fences is half the battle.

Fab .... Yep,that one still bugs me.

The numbers are never exact,a few in the lower grades are never mentioned,but are discussed.

Nothing wrong with questioning the nuts and bolts,always room for improvement.

Cutting out the cursory ones,just for the sake,has to be the holy grail.

Snowed under with work at the mo,hardly seen a race since chelt,Domain was also a cliff horse Wink
By:
Fabulous
When: 24 Mar 21 00:24
Topham - Livelovelaugh 0.8pt Win 14’s (Hills)
By:
GI MAC
When: 24 Mar 21 14:17
Antipost
Topham (adding)
Senior Citizen 0.5pt win @ 20/1 (B3.6.5)
By:
Fabulous
When: 25 Mar 21 16:43
Topham - Morning Vicar 0.7pt Win 20’s (B365)
Scottish National - Crosshue Boy 0.3pt Win 100’s (UB)
By:
GI MAC
When: 26 Mar 21 07:39
1.30 New
The Devils Drop 0.5pt win @ 20/1 (B3.6.5)
By:
Fabulous
When: 26 Mar 21 10:43
1405 Newbury - Lord Napier 0.5pt Win 12’s
1540 Musselburgh - Off The Beat 1pt Win 15-2
Both B365
By:
Fabulous
When: 26 Mar 21 18:32
1405 Newbury - Valadom 0.5pt Win 8’s (B365)
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