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elisjohn
27 Jul 20 18:53
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Date Joined: 15 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 15,740 | Blogger: elisjohn's blog
i really think he will
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Report Figgis July 27, 2020 8:39 PM BST
I'm absolutely certain he has the ability on these weight terms. I have Stradivarius only 3lbs superior and here he has to concede a massive 15lbs due to wfa. The big unknown is whether Santiago will stay. It's no good being 12lbs well in if you don't get the trip. And even if he gets the trip it won't necessarily mean he'll be quite as good over it as at 12f. The reason 3yos receive more weight the further they go up in trip is they tend not to stay quite as well as older horses. I'm fully aware that Santiago may well hit a brick wall at 14f and proceed to get thrashed by Stradivarius, but on these weights at these odds I have to back him.
Report elisjohn July 27, 2020 8:59 PM BST
hes won over 14 figgis,  ok doesnt mean hell get the 2 miles , but i cant see that being a problem, but whatever the merits of the irish derby these days we have to assume hes a very good horse?  and with the allowances i will have to back him
Report Figgis July 27, 2020 9:15 PM BST
With all the block booking that usually goes on with this yard I'm a bit surprised they haven't thrown in another runner just to ensure a proper pace. If ever there was a case of wanting to ensure maximum benefit of a weight advantage surely this is it. The truer the pace the more difficult it will be for Stradivarius to concede, whereas the task becomes much easier in a final 2f dash. Maybe Moore will take up the running if the early pace looks iffy.
Report A_T July 28, 2020 8:00 AM BST
Stradivarius is getting on a bit so it's entirely possible - but I think the odds reflect their respective chances.
Report Figgis July 28, 2020 11:23 AM BST
Stradivarius' running in the Coronation Cup was another example that horses don't improve for the step up to 2m+. It's that the opposition gets much weaker over the longer races. If a horse that can run reasonably close in a Gp1 can repeat that form over the longer trip then it will nearly always be good enough, as the opposition is generally garbage in comparison. The reality doesn't always match the theory, but if I could transpose Santiago's form from the Irish Derby (which I regard as nothing special, but well up to scratch) to the Coronation Cup, off level weights he would've finished only a few lengths behind Stradivarius. With WFA I would have him finishing second in the race.

For me, this is the most interesting 2 mile race for years. We don't normally get a 3yo as good as this contesting a 2 mile race against its elders. It will be interesting to see how well the 3yo stays this far against a proper opponent and if the allowance is as generous as it appears. Hopefully the two main contenders won't have taken too much out of themselves last time, they both run to form and all will be revealed.
Report impossible123 July 28, 2020 12:00 PM BST
The horse is fit, finishes his races well and can quicken at the business end. Also, in receipt of 15lbs from Stradivarius over just 2f further than he's travelled, and at odds of 4x better than Stradivarius what's not to like. Just hope his jockey does not screw it up.
Report FELTFAIR July 28, 2020 12:20 PM BST
Take your cyber bullying of Ryan Moore off this forum impossible 123.
Report elisjohn July 28, 2020 3:26 PM BST
fairplay, superb strad, im always going on about the horses in the 80s 90s were superior, but this horse is top of the tree.
Report Figgis July 28, 2020 3:39 PM BST
To me, Santiago clearly didn't stay the trip, it was even more obvious considering it wasn't an overall great pace and he was well placed. I think they'll have to seriously reconsider their plan to have him as a Cup horse and drop him back in trip. Not that he'll have many options there either with at least a couple of 3yos much better than him. Another easy race for Stradivarius, who could easily stay at the top next year as a 7yo in these kind of races.
Report Charlton2005 July 28, 2020 3:40 PM BST
he has to concede a massive 15lbs due to wfa.

head in hands man for this pseudo scientific mug please
Report Figgis July 28, 2020 4:05 PM BST
Like clockwork the stalking aftertimer appears Grin

“15lbs is a lot of weight to be giving to a very talented three-year-old so this is probably one of the greatest challenges of his career,” Stradivarius’s trainer John Gosden has conceded.

While you're disagreeing, you can also tell Gosden you don't think the best filly/mare he's ever trained is in the all time 50 Wink
Report Charlton2005 July 28, 2020 4:09 PM BST
gosden knows how to train horses. he is as dumb as you are when it comes to the logic/mathematics of the wfa scale and for the record so is frankie
Report Charlton2005 July 28, 2020 4:12 PM BST
he may as well have said "Usain has to give a lot of start to his 12 year old cousin, so this will be the biggest challenge of his career"
maybe you have already said, but could you remind us of your academic/work background? i am assuming you are not an actuary...
Report Figgis July 28, 2020 4:13 PM BST
Well I've asked you before but you couldn't answer it, so we'll try again. What exactly is the WFA scale as you see it?
Report Charlton2005 July 28, 2020 4:16 PM BST
you really know how to deflect a question

it is that allowance which equates the probability of winning of horses of equal ability but different ages
Report Figgis July 28, 2020 4:34 PM BST
you really know how to deflect a question

The discussion is about a racing matter on a racing forum. I have no interest in discussing anything personal with some online weirdo, just as I have absolutely no interest in what you do.

it is that allowance which equates the probability of winning of horses of equal ability but different ages

So you believe that all 3yos are at the exact same stage of development and improve the same number of pounds every month in line with the WFA scale?

Did you think it was right that a few years ago 3yos received 13lbs in a race such as the King George, but now they only receive 11lbs?

If you think it is right, is that because you thing the WFA allowance used to be wrong, or are 3yos maturing faster now, in your view?
Report Charlton2005 July 28, 2020 4:40 PM BST
no idea as I haven't seen the data. one thing I do know is that saying things like "massive 15lbs" and "giving away 15lbs" etc etc is equivalent to saying "Usain has to give that 7 year old a massive 50m start over 100m" and shows a clear misunderstanding of what wfa is.
Report Charlton2005 July 28, 2020 4:42 PM BST
forgot to point out your incessant deflection...

it is that allowance which equates the probability of winning of horses of equal ability but different ages

So you believe that all 3yos are at the exact same stage of development and improve the same number of pounds every month in line with the WFA scale?


one has nothing to do with the other.
Report Figgis July 28, 2020 5:19 PM BST
no idea as I haven't seen the data

Thought not.

Well there have been disagreements for years about whether the WFA scale is right. There has been a lot of criticism about weight concessions to 3yos. The BHA have already tinkered with the scale a number of times, always in favour of the older horses, as far as I'm aware. So even they have conceded on the issue, and there's no saying they won't tinker some more. Timeform also have a different opinion as they have used a different scale than the official one for years.

shows a clear misunderstanding of what wfa is


Even if we (reluctantly) accept that the scale is as close to perfect as it could ever be, anyone who can't understand that a scale that can only ever be based on averages can never be anything more than a basic one size fits all guide is severely deluded. Those averages are gained from all levels of racing across the board. There isn't a separate scale for the top flight. Horses in the top flight are obviously going to include more precocious 3yos than the ones rated lower. While there can be no absolute ceiling on what the thoroughbred may be able to achieve, or at least not one we can know, there is an accepted level of what we think a fully mature Gp1 racehorse should be capable of. Some 3yos develop quicker and get closer to that level sooner than others. For a racehorse of average ability, developing at an average rate, the WFA scale will be no more than fair. It shouldn't be too difficult to comprehend that the better or more precocious horses get an advantage from a system where the data analysed in order to produce the scale was not confined to their level.
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