anyone else think that santiago will beat strad tomorrow

I'm absolutely certain he has the ability on these weight terms. I have Stradivarius only 3lbs superior and here he has to concede a massive 15lbs due to wfa. The big unknown is whether Santiago will stay. It's no good being 12lbs well in if you don't get the trip. And even if he gets the trip it won't necessarily mean he'll be quite as good over it as at 12f. The reason 3yos receive more weight the further they go up in trip is they tend not to stay quite as well as older horses. I'm fully aware that Santiago may well hit a brick wall at 14f and proceed to get thrashed by Stradivarius, but on these weights at these odds I have to back him.

With all the block booking that usually goes on with this yard I'm a bit surprised they haven't thrown in another runner just to ensure a proper pace. If ever there was a case of wanting to ensure maximum benefit of a weight advantage surely this is it. The truer the pace the more difficult it will be for Stradivarius to concede, whereas the task becomes much easier in a final 2f dash. Maybe Moore will take up the running if the early pace looks iffy.

Stradivarius' running in the Coronation Cup was another example that horses don't improve for the step up to 2m+. It's that the opposition gets much weaker over the longer races. If a horse that can run reasonably close in a Gp1 can repeat that form over the longer trip then it will nearly always be good enough, as the opposition is generally garbage in comparison. The reality doesn't always match the theory, but if I could transpose Santiago's form from the Irish Derby (which I regard as nothing special, but well up to scratch) to the Coronation Cup, off level weights he would've finished only a few lengths behind Stradivarius. With WFA I would have him finishing second in the race.

For me, this is the most interesting 2 mile race for years. We don't normally get a 3yo as good as this contesting a 2 mile race against its elders. It will be interesting to see how well the 3yo stays this far against a proper opponent and if the allowance is as generous as it appears. Hopefully the two main contenders won't have taken too much out of themselves last time, they both run to form and all will be revealed.

Take your cyber bullying of Ryan Moore off this forum impossible 123.

To me, Santiago clearly didn't stay the trip, it was even more obvious considering it wasn't an overall great pace and he was well placed. I think they'll have to seriously reconsider their plan to have him as a Cup horse and drop him back in trip. Not that he'll have many options there either with at least a couple of 3yos much better than him. Another easy race for Stradivarius, who could easily stay at the top next year as a 7yo in these kind of races.

Like clockwork the stalking aftertimer appears

“15lbs is a lot of weight to be giving to a very talented three-year-old so this is probably one of the greatest challenges of his career,” Stradivarius’s trainer John Gosden has conceded.

While you're disagreeing, you can also tell Gosden you don't think the best filly/mare he's ever trained is in the all time 50

he may as well have said "Usain has to give a lot of start to his 12 year old cousin, so this will be the biggest challenge of his career"
maybe you have already said, but could you remind us of your academic/work background? i am assuming you are not an actuary...

you really know how to deflect a question

it is that allowance which equates the probability of winning of horses of equal ability but different ages

no idea as I haven't seen the data. one thing I do know is that saying things like "massive 15lbs" and "giving away 15lbs" etc etc is equivalent to saying "Usain has to give that 7 year old a massive 50m start over 100m" and shows a clear misunderstanding of what wfa is.

no idea as I haven't seen the data

Thought not.

Well there have been disagreements for years about whether the WFA scale is right. There has been a lot of criticism about weight concessions to 3yos. The BHA have already tinkered with the scale a number of times, always in favour of the older horses, as far as I'm aware. So even they have conceded on the issue, and there's no saying they won't tinker some more. Timeform also have a different opinion as they have used a different scale than the official one for years.

shows a clear misunderstanding of what wfa is

Even if we (reluctantly) accept that the scale is as close to perfect as it could ever be, anyone who can't understand that a scale that can only ever be based on averages can never be anything more than a basic one size fits all guide is severely deluded. Those averages are gained from all levels of racing across the board. There isn't a separate scale for the top flight. Horses in the top flight are obviously going to include more precocious 3yos than the ones rated lower. While there can be no absolute ceiling on what the thoroughbred may be able to achieve, or at least not one we can know, there is an accepted level of what we think a fully mature Gp1 racehorse should be capable of. Some 3yos develop quicker and get closer to that level sooner than others. For a racehorse of average ability, developing at an average rate, the WFA scale will be no more than fair. It shouldn't be too difficult to comprehend that the better or more precocious horses get an advantage from a system where the data analysed in order to produce the scale was not confined to their level.