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26 Jul 20 20:33
Date Joined: 15 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 17,162 | Blogger: elisjohn's blog
an absolute cracker for this day and age, and the shocking poor group1 we have now and far to many of them, but really looking forward to this renewal, english 2000, irish 2000, queen anne winner, and the 2nd in 2000  taking each other on.

kameko at 6s is a fantastic each way bet imo.
Pause Switch to Standard View THE SUSSEX STAKES , wednesday 29th july
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Report penzance July 26, 2020 9:45 PM BST
Kameko's top price  is 7/2,(3s generally)
Report Figgis July 27, 2020 12:20 AM BST
I agree it's a more competitive race than we often get and much more interesting for it. However, for me, not one of these has put up what I'd call a genuine Gp1 effort. I thought Kameko was the worst Guineas winner in the last 10 years. He ran below par in the Derby and might return to form now back to a mile, but it's not a great standard. I have Siskin exactly equal to him. To the eye it was reasonably impressive the way he won at the Curragh after getting into trouble, leaving the impression he might've won even easier with a clear run, but I'm not totally convinced. I have him running exactly to his 2yo mark and think he might not have improved at all since last year, and I prefer to stick with 3yos that I believe have improved.

I have Circus Maximus running to a new peak last time, but at these weights it leaves him a pound behind Kameko and Siskin. Even if those two don't quite run to their best CM looked all out to me so doesn't appeal. The other 4yo who ran a career best last time was Mohaather. Conceding these wfa terms means I still only have him level with Kameko and Siskin. So I have things extremely tight between the top four contenders. Often that would mean a no bet race, but Mohaather is the only one I strongly fancy to repeat his best effort and just possibly even improve on it a little. I've had nibbles at him for this since his Ascot win and plan to back him again on the day.
Report elisjohn July 27, 2020 3:52 AM BST
penzance, 6s plus on here
Report elisjohn July 27, 2020 3:58 AM BST
i agree its not a great standard but yes its interesting, and by far the most ive looked forward to a group1 for a while,  but back to your comment about ," its not a great standard, " i reckon its years since we had a really good standard group1 race, actually when and witch race would it have been,? was it in the last 10 years?    trying to think!
Report elisjohn July 27, 2020 4:00 AM BST
ps i wouldnt rule out wichita completly
Report penzance July 27, 2020 7:16 AM BST
personally think Siskin's a very good horse
and will be disappointed if he gets beat in
Report A_T July 27, 2020 10:09 AM BST
looks like a good renewal to me - Guineas winner vs Irish equivalent - not sure what people are expecting. Siskin for me unless the ground is soft
Report Figgis July 27, 2020 10:14 AM BST
As said, it's a deeper race than usual. However the Guineas winner is very poor this year, in my view anyway. The jury is still out on Siskin.
Report Figgis July 27, 2020 10:23 AM BST
Elisjohn, I have to disagree. Yes there have been some absolutely terrible standards of Gp1s, bound to be with more of them around. I'd say there have been some really good ones though. It depends on what you call a really good standard?
Report A_T July 27, 2020 11:05 AM BST
There are too many G1s these days - especially for fillies/mares only. But there are as many good horses as there has ever been.
Report Figgis July 27, 2020 11:18 AM BST
What A_T said.
Report elisjohn July 27, 2020 11:31 AM BST
AT,  i cannot agree , that there are as many good horses as there has ever been, But of course we can all have our opinionsWink.
figgis, you know your horses and ratings etc etc, just a question , what horse race group1 in the uk  is the last do you personally consider to have been very high standards , difficult ? i suppose , what about frankel, st nicholas , farrh york race
Report Figgis July 27, 2020 1:27 PM BST
Elisjohn, I think it all depends on what you consider a great standard. Some people want to see a race full of great depth, but in my experience there are very, very few races where more than two really top notch horses run right up to their best at the same time. I've seen plenty of high standard winning performances where the runners behind might not have run to a great level on the day. I believe Love ran to an outstanding level when winning the Oaks. When Enable won her Oaks I had her 6lbs higher than any previous Oaks winning performance as far back as 1985, and she didn't do too badly afterwards. It's unlikely Love will have as great a career as Enable but if she stays sound I'll be very surprised if she's beaten this year. Whether this year's Oaks can be considered a great race is another matter, as those behind were hardly top class. I know all races aren't fast run, but personally I like to see a horse put up a very fast performance before I consider it truly top class. Other people will judge using other factors, which is fair enough.

As to that York race, I don't want to get into debates about horses before I got into racing, 1985, but since then it was clearly the fastest race I've ever rated, bar one, which was Frankel's Queen Anne win, which I have a couple of pounds higher. Despite that I would say I've seen Gp1s with more depth, as while St Nicholas Abbey was obviously a very good horse with a long career I would argue that he wasn't quite top notch. I would also say that Farhh was a few pounds better over a mile than 10f. What did you think of the race?
Report elisjohn July 27, 2020 2:30 PM BST
yes i agree with your comments re that york race, but this years oaks seems on the form book so far terrible, though one of the also rans ran 2nd in a listed yesterday, and again love beat nothing at all in the gns, so personally i think 7/2 ish for the arc is a joke, and i have layed her.
but my memory is poor these days especially all sport in the 2000 onwards , but excellent of the late 70s and 80s, so many great races, quality then, and just top of my head then , what a class the eclipse, nashwan, indian skimmer and warning, yes it did turn up as a bog and clearly warning didnt stay , but what quality of horses taking each other on, then again top of my head, the teenoso king george, just watched it the other day, some great horses in the field.
but im nowhere in your parish regarding ratings etc , but enjoy yourself, brigust, james etc on the forumWink
Report Figgis July 27, 2020 3:28 PM BST
Elisjohn, I remember all those apart from Teenoso, who I only saw and read about later. I agree that there was a different feel about racing back then, and in a way it was more enjoyable. I think partly because there was a handful or more of different yards and jockeys who all had a shout in the big races. These days, apart from the odd exception, the best races are generally being carved up between two yards, one more dominant than the other in quantity, if not always quality.

Speaking for myself, though, another major reason was just because it was all new and fresh to me. Plus, without yet suffering all the knocks that come from being a hardened punter, I was inclined to be far more fearless in those days, which made for entertaining big ups and downs. So those days were special to me but I couldn't honestly say the horses were always better. I remember thinking how lucky I was to get into racing the year that a triple crown winning filly was around, Oh So Sharp. I still rank it as a great achievement. However, analysing those races years later I wouldn't say any particular performance on its own was exceptional. A scrambled home win in a decent Guineas, an admittedly impressive win in the Oaks, which was up there with the better performances I'd seen in an Oaks until Enable came along. Beaten by Petoski and then Commanche Run when in receipt of a more favourable allowance back then. Then won the St Leger by 3/4 length from Phardante, if I remember rightly.

So I'm certainly not knocking what was still a great achievement but it's easy to confuse that with the form being better than that of today's horses. It's not all about ratings, as you know. I could be wrong about Love, although in this case I'm almost certain I'm right. Nevertheless, just because a horse ran fast last time it doesn't mean it will do it again. Hopefully Love will, and even if her next outing is against moderate opposition she should get the chance a race later to show how good she is in the Arc.
Report Charlton2005 July 28, 2020 9:03 PM BST
Mohaather is the only one I strongly fancy to repeat his best effort and just possibly even improve on it a little. I've had nibbles at him for this since his Ascot win and plan to back him again on the day.
now you're proposing a 5/2 shot that should be 10/1... no clue
Report Deptford July 28, 2020 9:44 PM BST
Put up your money please for 10/1, I will take as much as you put up, cheers.
Report Charlton2005 July 28, 2020 9:49 PM BST
why would I do that when i'm laying all the 3.85 I want?
Report brigust1 July 29, 2020 10:44 AM BST
Figgis it bothers me, I don't know why, but all this about Frankel's Queen Anne win being fast is beyond me. The Queen Anne Stakes in 2012 was run on a newly laid surface installed 7 years before his race.
In the 20 years before the new development only one horse achieved better than average time yet in the 7 years since the development 3 horses bettered average time and Frankel's was the third fastest of those. Up until today 9 horses have now beaten average time from 15 races on this newly laid course.
Enough already.
Back to the Sussex Stakes.

I think this lies between Wichita and Kameko.

Circus Maximus win at Ascot where he beat Terebellum (beaten since), Maries Diamond (beaten since) and Roseman (beaten since) isn't great. Mohaather may have been unlucky but he would still have beaten these horse so I think he needs to improve. I wouldn't mind him winning, too much, for the trainer.

I don't think Siskin's form is good enough but he is unbeaten and there may be more to come but at the moment it isn't good enough.

That leaves Wichita and Kameko. Frankie is back on Wichita who I think was mugged by Kameko in the Guineas after taking on Pinatubo and Pinatubo has come out and won since. I think Tyan tree to be clever at Ascot last time going slowly but this time I think there will be a good pace and so Wichita is my choice with Kameko a huge danger.

Good luck guys
Report brigust1 July 29, 2020 10:45 AM BST
*Ryan tried to be clever
Report brigust1 July 29, 2020 11:05 AM BST
I should have added Frankel's time is only the 6th fastest of those 9 runnings. Sorry guys only I never brought it up but I will definitely leave I there.

Just to remind you that Brigadier Gerard won this race in 1971 (49 years ago) on soft ground beating Faraway Son by 5 lengths. I remember standing in the security guards hut early that morning, where the only available telephone was, and having my biggest ever bet at 6/4. I still remember the guard's face when I placed my bet. Happy days.
Report Figgis July 29, 2020 11:07 AM BST
now you're proposing a 5/2 shot that should be 10/1... no clue

So we have 5/2 shot that should be 10/1. That must leave some massive value elsewhere. It would be interesting to see how you have priced up the other 6 runners? Especially with you being such a mathematical expert.
Report FELTFAIR July 29, 2020 12:00 PM BST
Aftertiming Brigust.
Report brigust1 July 29, 2020 12:39 PM BST
I know Felt, but it still feels good and as clear as day. My Mum, my sister and my girlfriend went and the sun shone. Wonderful.
Report brigust1 July 29, 2020 1:05 PM BST
It was a good race too Felt. Faraway Son had just beaten My Swallow 6 lengths in France on the soft ground he loved, he had won the French 2000 Guineas the year before, Joshua was next in, he had been narrowly beaten in the Lockinge and had just won two in France, in the last he beat Dictus who next won the Prix Jacques le Marios. The Irish 2000 Guineas winner had since won the Cork & Orrery at Royal Ascot (now the Diamond Jubilee) and was beaten 17 lengths of the five. The meeting was at risk because of rain and the going was definitely soft but 6/4 in the morning was a steal.
Report FELTFAIR July 29, 2020 1:26 PM BST
Report brigust1 July 29, 2020 1:38 PM BST
It's alright Felt I have spent the money and still have the girlfriend. Is there no end to my luck?

Back to the race, I do think Wichita has the best form and has been overlooked.
Report FELTFAIR July 29, 2020 1:45 PM BST
Is the girl friend in addition to the wife?
Report brigust1 July 29, 2020 1:47 PM BST
One and the same. They take it in turns.
Report brigust1 July 29, 2020 1:48 PM BST
Report Millerracing67 July 29, 2020 3:04 PM BST
Cracking race in store. Couldn't make up my mind for the single play??
So a few ££ on the reverse fc 2 & 5 @ 5.3
Report penzance July 29, 2020 3:15 PM BST
That Brigadier aftertiming,great story.
Report harry callaghan July 29, 2020 3:26 PM BST
well done figgis
Report brigust1 July 29, 2020 3:28 PM BST
Great for Marcus. Not sure Wichita is a lot for Palace Pier. Yes, well done Figgis.
Report brigust1 July 29, 2020 3:28 PM BST
Report unclepuncle July 29, 2020 3:33 PM BST
Frankie Dettori hang your head in shame. Riding a total spoiler for Coolmore - Wichita never trying to win the race just ridden to cause as much trouble as possible for Circus Maximus’s rivals. Can understand Beggy or Lordan riding to orders like that but you should be above that.

Thank God it didn’t work and the best horse by a mile still won.
Report brigust1 July 29, 2020 3:54 PM BST
Not sure what else Frankie could do without completely screwing up his chance. I think Kameko should have won but that can be the best way to the poor house.
Report penzance July 29, 2020 4:04 PM BST
His mount was within 1L of the 2nd about
a furlong out,was there to win but faded
not good enough,cant see what he did wrong.
Report penzance July 29, 2020 4:06 PM BST
Mohaather backers
Report Figgis July 29, 2020 4:45 PM BST
Cheers harry, brig. In running I can't say I was enjoying much of the second half of the race but very nice in the end.
Report layingisthewayforward July 29, 2020 5:13 PM BST
Well done Mohaather backers. I'm sure Charlton will be along shortly to congratulate you Figgis and hold his hands up to admit he was wrong.
Report nocturnal July 29, 2020 5:50 PM BST
Well done Figgis

Plenty reasoning beforehand,just what I like to see,enjoy.

These threads attract some very knowledgeable people,long may that continue,theres a little bit more involved than the daily betting woes I suspect.

Excellent thread,pleasure to read,well done all winners.
Report Figgis July 29, 2020 6:36 PM BST
Ta LITWF, nocturnal Wink
Report Charlton2005 July 29, 2020 8:43 PM BST
tough day, well done winners
Report Deptford July 30, 2020 5:19 AM BST
You got it wrong, as we have all done, you put your opinions up, nothing wrong with that, dont be too hard on yourself, shame you got relegated, easy 6 points for us!!!
Report A_T July 30, 2020 12:46 PM BST
i think Siskin is like Pinatubo - doesn't really stay a stiff mile
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