Epsom Derby 2020

backed Highest Ground for this today @25s.
Could be wrong but does'nt seem to be a
standout colt atm.Looking for a big run
today and for him to line up at Epsom.
   GL ALL

wd penzance, looks like the extra distance will suit as well. Personally I'm a Kameko fan, but will he get the trip?

Well done,penzance...now for the hard part...convincing the trainer to run him at Epsom...some encouragement that he took the chance with Ulysses,same lightly raced profile and maybe,crucially same owners...they'll be further encouraged by Alpine Star's win on Saturday

French derbi?

Miltary March 32s to back on here,
is he a runner? Blank with some books
on oddschecker.

military march n/r.

Reminiscent of St Nicholas Abbey which over a few days before the Derby drifted from 7/4 favourite to 20/1 before the stable announced it a non runner. The Gambling Commission got involved and some scapegoat stable staff got their knuckles wrapped.

The same applies to Military March over the last few days drifted from 6-1 out 14-1 in dribs and drabs as those in the know were drip feeding lay money into Betfair.

The Gambling Commission should get involved in my opinion.

What a poor Derby this is going to be. Kameko at 5/1 on here looks an unbelievable price. If it stays 1m 2f it will win never mind having to stay the extra 2f. I'm going in.

Highest Gnd N/R unlucky penzance. I've taken the 5s Kameko, with the field cutting up Balding will surely go for it.

If Kameko was trained by Gosden and trainer expressed his lack of enthusiasm for the race I'd abstain from backing him. But, at 5/1 after winning 2000G it would be prudent to dip a toe in (against English King) and Co. I just hope he turns up next saturday.

is there any chance godolphin might bring victor ludorum over for this.

Any other trainer apart from Fabre possibly. The Jockey Club has been his target even prior to his Fontainbleau run and 2000G triumph; 1m 2f is different to 1m 4f, asks connections of Roaring Lion.

Bangkok was only 9/1 and he never ran a yard .

I still remember that race,...but he did not win a 2000G; he best two slow boats in Telecaster and Technician. I believe his trainer said Epsom did not suit after. Let's hope Kameko can atone.

hope you do,m8,it was only last year.

small boost in the irish version for english king through berkshire rocco.And would it really shock you with this lot that santiago might well be in next weeks race as well

obrien today, " any of saturdays runnerers could be entered tomorrow for the derby"

With a maximum of 20 runners he trying to STOP
Ingish runners playing

DISGRACEFULL

agree, a horrible lot but doesnt matter how many runners he puts up, if kameko stays he wins

Almost zero chance Santiago turning up after two consecutive hard Gp 1 races over  days. The Leger is his for the taking, I believe, if he does not do an Idaho.

Entries for the Derby are to be made on Monday, 29 June and the runners will be revealed shortly after 10am on Thursday, 2 June.

Shortly after = 3 days later.

So people at the BHA will know 3 days in advance who is not running while the punters are still betting on them?

I'll wait until Saturday, thanks.

I would run Santiago. Guaranteed to stay and thought he showed a bit of pace on Saturday. Looks a hardy horse and don't see him turning out again much of a problem. Would give the race a much needed boost too.

no happy, tomorrow is 6 day decleration, which well know about dinner time whats added or taken out , then on wednesday or thursday depends if its 2 or 3 days final entries  well know the actual runners

Is it a 3 day dec or back to 2 days now? It was 3 day dec when racing resumed. No info from The Exchange either.

im sure itll be wednesday

Entries wll be known Monday,runners
on Thursday.

A 2-day dec then if confirmed runners on thursday. A bit of precipitation is expected from tuesday onward and most on the day of the race.

Thanks for that useful info elisjohn,

I read my first sentence somewhere and the “shortly after” just tickled me.
It doesn’t need a lot of sauce on my sandwich to put a smile on my face.

Let’s just hope Aiden sends a couple over to give English King a bit of ‘resistance’.

Betfair's rules...

All bets will be void in the event that horses from jurisdictions outside of the UK, deemed to make a material difference to the market, are prevented from entering this race.

Is there a realistic chance of that being applied? Or in the Oaks?

It didn`t in the Guineas.

pete, no chance whatsover

the only scenario that would happen is, if irish horses were banned from coming over this weekdue to the covid , then the oaks would be voided coz of love,

I think it costs £10,000 to enter on monday, it would then be crazy to withdraw on thursday, surely you would know if your horse is good enough to have a reasonable chance, or maybe put in as spoilers. cheers.

rain about this week, surely not the best news for the fav english king imo, cant see him winning at all and reckon that 3.75 is a super lay , will surely be nearer 4/1 , 9/2 at the off, camelot wasnt a soft ground horse , and zafonic was simply a miler

according to horse racing forum, 21 left in, 14 from coolmore, inc santigo and the 2nd from saturday, and i didnt put a tenner on santigo after the irish at 100s or more on here, when i suspected he might be included

latest news from horse racing forum, now 17 left in derby, but no  santiago or tiger moth, santiago was around 16 to lay on here about an hour ago,

the last horse i can remember winning  the lingfield  derby  trial stakes on route  to success  in the derby was high rise in 1998

high rise carrying  8.7 won that trial in 224.80 (1.00) fast

english king carrying  9.0 won in 224.36 (1.44) fast

Thanks. That's what I thought, but it's always nice to be reassured.

why pete, have you got a nice ante post bet going on the derby or oaks ?

Don`t forget Anthony Van Dyck roadrunner 46.

missed that derby winner last year anthony van dyck, thats my name anthony. knew the was a possibility  another  horse won both races.

Hah. You never know Ellis. Even if you've a £2 bet, you don't want to see it voided, do you?

Well all the favoUrites drawn LOW
Come on Mohican HEIGHTS

sinawann won a group 3 yesterday, Mogul beat it last year. English King is drawn 1, drifts in the market, Mogul is drawn 2 and it is bet in, doesn't make sense to me, especially if English King can beat the horses drawn in 2 and 3 early to get a decent position. cheers.

r moore on mogul, in my book the 3rd choice of a o'brien's runners.
interesting that heffernan and beggy are coming over for rides and going onto france on sunday.
will both have to isolate for 14 days when back in ireland, or will they? does aiden know something we don't.

vatican city for me, great run in i/2000g finishing like a train. that'll do .

had a fair bit of rain at epsom today by all accounts and a fair bit for saturday,

We had heavy showers between 2pm and 4pm but dry since. Don’t think it would make much difference to be honest.
Soft side of good would be my guess by Saturday.

going good, good to soft in places, 11mm of rain today

yes im near epsom - dont think its anything much and windy and dry now - maybe some light showers between now  and start time - dont think ground will be excuse for anyone

Haven`t been able to post for a few days but this years Derby has become a pain.

Firstly I was " balls deep" on Military March with English King and Kameko as small winners. Next Military March gets injured, English King gets box 1 and the ground softens which probably won`t help Kameko`s chances of getting the trip.

I am not a great fan of collateral form but Arthurs Kingdom performance in the Irish Derby did little to elevate the form of Pyledriver`s race at Ascot, the time for Russian Emperor`s race at Ascot wasn`t brilliant and similarly Vatican City in the Irish Guineas. So overall I have concluded that Ballydoyle`s participants are too difficult to differentiate and will not be adding any of them to my current outlays. Knowing the brilliance of Aiden O`Brien I could regret leaving him out but so be it.

Bottom line I am left with English King and Kameko to rescue my financial position but this year all the vibes are negative. Here`s hoping.

FELTFAIR, I did exactly the same as you,[ baw deep] Military March, along with Kameko and English King, now I have added Highland Chief, I don't know if it has the class but it will definitely stay, but at which speed, that is the problem. cheers.

At least I am not alone.

I see Tony Calvin has tipped mine


I have just noticed a slight change in the joint ownership of this hoss
Quatar no longer hold a share in the hoss
Must think the 2000 gns winner is their hoss

A fair number of the "provisional" pundits are nailing their mast to Russian Emperor at this late hour. Another bookies horse?

paul kealy and dave orton have both gone for mohican heights .

Intriguing race.

The Derby being run in July?..... how many will we see of those in our lifetime?

Same rules apply,looking for that combination of speed and stamina,the ability to handle both the occasion and the unique demands of this course.

Thats just the jockeys covered.How many will be nervous on the way down,and through the race.How much can those nerves be transferred through the reigns,how much can that affect performance?

Not too difficult to make a case for a few,as the betting suggests.

Vatican City ......... The pin has landed on this one.

If there is a dark horse in here,he,s my idea of that horse.Nothing special as a 2 yr old,it was that Irish Guineas run that caught the eye.Boxed in at the business end,he eventually found a little daylight at the furlong pole,doing his best work as the race was over.

He did not pick up immmediately,I do wonder just how forward he was,he still looked way too keen in the early stages,despite travelling just behind the pace.That could be the key to him later today,can he settle in the early stages,just how much has that last run brought him on.Pedigree wise,his sire will do for me,ground should be no excuse for any of them,if it remains easy side of good.

Just how many of these horses will relish the test,with so little experience in the locker?

Very few would be my guess,thats what sets the top outfits apart from the rest,getting the right horses there is just one part of the puzzle,everything needs to be in place on the day,to deliver.


GL

some good points nocturnal  a lot more to it than just getting there. looks like as many have suggested aiden has no "stand out for the race and goes in mob handed ! is that a negative ? for some maybe  but coolmore have the t shirt on this race and i trust them more than most to deliver on the day it matters most , it was a similar situation last year and look what happened  winner 3rd  4th  and 5th . after the ante post skirmishes  have ended up with 3 on my side at decent prices mogul.russian emp and vatican that will do for me .

I backed Vatican City after its unlucky Newmarket run and subsequent very smooth Dundalk win . O'brien was saying on June 1st that he ' might ' be ready to run in the Irish 2000 guineas and before the race that he was ' just' ready . He also stated that the horse should stay ' a little bit further than a mile ' , apparently based on the speed horses on his dam's side . His owners have to run him , the breeding pot of gold is so big , so its fingers crossed . I have only had 4 derby winners since Morston in 1973 , and heres hoping two of them have been ridden by P Beggy !!

Not a betting race for me. I would like to see Kameko win but I think the ground is against him and his suspect stamina but he is clearly the class horse. Several 10 furlong horses have won the Derby in the past.
Of the rest I think Pyledriver's race is the key. Pyledriver was fit, he had a run, and for most of the race at Ascot he was upsides or behind Mogul with Mohican Heights ridden out the back. The winner was possibly the fittest horse but Mohican Heights ran on strongly from a nad position. Mogul has always been a fancied O'Brien horse being favourite in most of his races and with Ryan Moore riding I think the race lies between these three but with no confidence. As usual, O'Brien running a load of runners is confusing. If they were trained by different trainers we would be looking at the race in a completely different way. Good luck.

Couple of plays for me: little bit ew English King 4/1 (worried about that draw??) laid Kameko 4.7, fan of the horse, just don't think he wants 12f??
Gd luck with your bets lads.

I think the main reason AOB running a battalion is minimising others the chance of winning, but maximising his charges winning eg making sure a proper race pace, if necessary; riding shotgun for his more fancied charge/s; boxing in/pushing out other main protagonists.

I think Kameko needs to stay the trip well as the pace, I believe, will be furious; English King needs tactical pace for a good position to mount a challenge in the last 2f.

Verdict: At least 1 of AOB's charges will be in the mix at the business end. A possible 1-2.

In many years we get a horse or two showing big improvement to make the frame but usually the winner is one who has already shown it has sufficient speed. This year, in my opinion, there are only three in the right ballpark, so I will concentrate on those. They occupy three of the first four places in the market. I have seen in a few places Russian Emperor has been put up as one of the fastest horses in the race. I can see how people have arrived at that conclusion, but, for me, they're wrong and I have him a good 10lbs+ behind the main three.

I still believe this year's Guineas was the poorest of the last ten years, and in most years Kameko would've done no better than fighting for a place. However, a placed Guineas effort is often good enough to win a Derby and if Kameko can replicate that effort over 12f that form would be good enough to win an average Derby. When I watched him last year I thought he would stay. My negative for him is I don't have him improving significantly from 2 to 3 and I wouldn't say he had an easy race in the Guineas. He's not one I want to follow. I have Mogul only 4lbs behind him on last year's best form and if he can return to that after the below par Ascot run I can see him placed. He'll need to improve again, however, to win a typical Derby.

That leaves English King. I have the Lingfield win only 2lbs behind Kameko, and importantly he actually achieved it over the trip. In general I don't make a habit of upgrading horses because they appear to win easily, as I think it's usually overestimated that horses could've won by further, but I'd be surprised if EK couldn't improve a couple of pounds on that, which would put him bang on my mark for a decent Derby winner. I won't pretend this year's Lingfield Derby Trial is the most confident I've ever been about a piece of time analysis. This year there was only one other turf race for a comparison, far from ideal, but I'm happy to bet on my conclusions until proven wrong. I have no interest in the draw in a race of this nature. I think EK is a great bet at the price and I'm backing him.

Good luck with that Figgis. I looked long and hard at English King but I just couldn't get away from Max Vega through Berkshire Rocco who was beaten by Santiago who I thought AOB may have aimed at the Derby if he thought he was better than what he is running so I decided not to bother.

I'm mainly with EK as he has proven his stamina and he has a decent turn of foot. If Kamenko stays he will go close but he is a miler looking to stay rather than a 12f horse with the speed to win or go place in the 2000Gns. Of AOB horses, Mogul doesn't have the profile for me but he might improve enough to place. I can see VC and RE both running well and I have savers on those two plus HC who put up a good performance at Ascot albeit in a h//cap.English King would be a reasonable result at the price.

I'm mainly with EK as he has proven his stamina and he has a decent turn of foot. If Kamenko stays he will go close but he is a miler looking to stay rather than a 12f horse with the speed to win or go place in the 2000Gns. Of AOB horses, Mogul doesn't have the profile for me but he might improve enough to place. I can see VC and RE both running well and I have savers on those two plus HC who put up a good performance at Ascot albeit in a h//cap.English King would be a reasonable result at the price.

Another AOB screw up. English King was finishing well but I bet the jockey's behind thought AOB front runners would come back especially after what happened in the Oaks.

well talk about letting 2 horses get an easy lead off of just even fractions...just cheap lengths given in the early part of the race...reminded me of the irish derby last year when the rag got loose on an easy lead. well done the young rider stole it

I wonder if Tom Marquand would have sat as far back as Frankie?

i don't think you can blame frankie brigust the horse ducked left out the gate. the trouble for me in this race, is a lot of the horses were hold up horses who wanted to sit in rear i'm afraid, the problem for them is no one wanted to chase the pace early

The time comparison with the rest of the card reads okay. Nothing exceptional but certainly up to standard for the race. I agree it wasn't the best ride from Dettori and EK looked edgy beforehand, but even though he finished quite well I was still disappointed that he didn't show more pace when needed earlier and, for me, it was too big a margin of defeat to just blame the ride. It might come back to bite me but I'm taking the view he just wasn't good enough, no excuses from me, I overrated him at Lingfield, which I always knew was a possibility. In a regular year there probably would've been another opportunity to assess him.

As to the winner, it was difficult to know what to make of the maiden win. It was a decent time in comparison to the Irish Derby. It still left him with a fair bit to find with the best of these but he couldn't have won any easier and was open to more improvement. In a normal year we probably would've got another look at him, but I really don't think this was a fluke.

well the more i think about it the damage is done between the 6 and the 3 pole with the horses (outsiders) second and third just unable to sustain the pace letting the leader get loose, the only jockey i thought who had a chance to be more proactive earlier was ryan moore but he didn't want to put his horse in the race, he certainly had the opportunity to, this would of helped some from the rear. the o'brien horse who sat third really is the problem as he clearly had very little ability/speed to draw others into the race and acted as a blocker really

that Lingfield Derby Trial,not one horse has come out
and won.

Hard to think how he could possibly be a Derby winner after his first two starts.

He went down the hill and round Tattenham Corner like a greyhound and it was over from that moment. Wonder if we will see him again or will he get an injury!

The rail appeared to be a few yards further out than usual which meant horses challenging wider were further up the camber than usual making it almost impossible to go at maximum speed.
I thought English King ran well enough given his draw and the way the race unfolded should improve again like Japan did last year. Wonder if either will go for the King George or will they go for the Grand Prix de Paris?

If nothing else the St Leger is shaping up to be a good race.

^Mogul should improve like Japan did.

Speaking as a spectator only, that was a helluvan exciting race to watch. 3.5f out
and you started to wonder if he could be caught. Great fun.

Well what a weird race scratched me head and the time and still am!!
Actually think the winner isnt getting the credit he deserves and think this was no fluke
Watching the race like many others assumed hed gone too fast an was going to fall in a heap 2 out and finish nearer last than 1st.
If you look @ the sectionals im convinced he went TOO FAST compared with the Oaks he would have been 6 lengths clear of the 2 pacemakers that where well clear of the field but finished out with the washing.
Ironically the 1st 4 home where the 1st 4 after a furlong and a half

The improvement Serpentine has shown in each race is quite staggering  wathcing his 1st 2 runs the men in white coats would have taken you away even if you would have suggested he would RUN in the Derby.
Wheres he go next ? Juddmonte /Irish Champion ideal tracks for a bold front runner.

The RPR given to the winner is 121 (4 lb below 30 year average Derby winner).On my time ratings I would have it below that. It was an even pace throughout although not a fast pace, despite the way it looked visually. Given that the first 3 were all big prices, it was clear that the jockeys on the more fancied horses  seriously misjudged what was happening. Moore on Mogul must have been aware of the riding instructions on Sovereign (strange if he wasn't)so it was surprising that he was caught out so badly.

Sovereign improved his rating over his previous race by 21lb, the second highest improvement in the past 30 years, (Shaamit was rated 37 lbs higher) but Sovereign did improve 46 lbs in 2 runs which is a record.

The race demonstrated the strength of AOB's and Coolmore's grip on the race. They have won with something other than the most fancied three times now in the past 4 years with Wings of Eagles, Anthony Van Dyck and now Sovereign. Galileo is a super sire, for sure.

With the race being run 1 month later than usual, Sovereign would not have been given the opportunity in a normal year. How the form might work out is an unknown but usually when this kind of result occurs there would have to be serious doubt over just what it is worth.

Serpentine,you mean,not Soveriegn?

Penzance

Indeed, yes. Where that came from, I don't know. Serpentine. Serpentine. x100.

I disagree with the Post. In terms of how fast the performance was I only have three higher figures in the previous 10 years. The Curragh is often a trickier course than most for time analysis, and when rating his maiden win there was a case to be made for rating it higher than I settled on. Even so, I still had it a much better performance than the one Tiger Moth put up to win his maiden and he made the jump from that to going very close to winning the Irish Derby. So, even though it wasn't exactly obvious he was a future Derby winner, I don't believe it should be viewed as a fluke result, or a below par one.

Obviously Kameko ran below his best, but it was a poor Guineas anyway, he wasn't certain to stay and he wouldn't be the first Guineas winner to run disappointingly afterwards. English King probably would finish a bit closer on another day, but he just isn't as good as I'd hoped. I took a punt on the questionable Lingfield form and was wrong. Mogul had already run poorly beforehand and is still yet to recapture his 2yo best. The rest ran like how they looked beforehand, horses not good enough to run close in an average Derby.

Of course, it's not just how good a Derby performance was on the day, it's how well they come out of the race. Camelot, who I had very slightly below Serpentine, never ran as well again for the rest of the season. Even Workforce, who I had very slightly higher, ran poorly on his next start. Serpentine certainly won decisively, but I wouldn't call it easily achieved, he was treading water towards the end. Nevertheless, given reasonable odds I would still back him against those he has just beat and anything from the Irish Derby or French PDJC.

I think it's without doubt Serpentine has progressed with each run. Whether his Epsom win was no fluke the jury is still out unless he can back it up with another win/placed in a competitive Gp1 event. But, I think the 2020 Derby runners are much of a muchness, and the jockeys of the market leaders gifted a very soft lead to Serpentine 100%.

Figgis

I will have to rate it as a sub-standard race, on both time and collateral methods until such time as proven otherwise. It is probably  very rare to find 2 horses in the same race improving so much on their previous bests (Amhran N.B +30), which makes me wonder, although, of course, both are Galileos trained by a genius. I  also can't give the time rating (including sectional uplift) any higher than does the RP (106) as I have it has an even pace finish.

I can, however, rate Love as a superior horse to Serpentine and with  sex allowance could never conceive of her being beaten by the Derby winner.She looks top class.

Sandown, yes it largely depends on how highly you are prepared to rate Love. Three years ago I said after the Oaks that Enable had put up the fastest Oaks winning performance I'd seen in all the runnings since, and including, 1985. I thought it would be quite a while before that was equalled or bettered, but on Saturday I have Love exactly matching the figure for Enable. I said before the Derby I wasn't completely sure about my Lingfield Derby Trial analysis because of the limited information. In this case I'm as sure as I ever could be about rating a race, as there is more than enough data. Love just put up the equal best performance in the Oaks for the last 35 years.

I'd expect Serpentine to be retired after his unexpected and gifted glory here. He's achieved what most of his stablemates failed to do. Any betting on that?

youve been guided by your eyes impossible .Wasnt gifted a soft lead