Horse Antepost
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One of the most visually impressive winners at this years Royal Ascot was the Aidan O’Brien trained Santiago when winning the Queen’s Vase.
Santiago only ran 3 times as a 2 year old, one of which was a close 2nd to Alpine Star over 7f at Galway (who won today’s Coronation Stakes by 4+ lengths).
For me he’s a solid enough bet at the current available odds of 10/1 (8/1 in some places) for the St Leger.
The Queen’s Vase is normally a stepping stone, particularly for horses trained by O’Brien who win the Queen’s Vase:
2013 - Leading Light (1st in the Queens Vase and 1st in the St Leger)
2016 - Sword Fighter (1st in the Queens Vase and 5th in the St Leger)
2018 - Kew Gardens (1st in the Queens Vase and 1st in the St Leger)
Further confidence can be taken from O’Brien’s comments after Santiago’s victory this week - “He’s a lovely straightforward horse. He travelled well and we always thought he would stay well. He’s an easy horse to train and an easy horse to get fit. We’ve been thinking he was an ideal St Leger horse so we’ll look for another run somewhere between now and then really. I’m not sure he’d run in a Derby as he could be a Cup horse for next year - he’ll get better from three to four. We’ve plenty for both Derbys, the Irish Derby would come too quick anyway but we’ll see what the lads want to do. We think he’ll be a horse for the Cup races next year so that is why we thought this race would suit him.”
Santiago only ran 3 times as a 2 year old, one of which was a close 2nd to Alpine Star over 7f at Galway (who won today’s Coronation Stakes by 4+ lengths).
For me he’s a solid enough bet at the current available odds of 10/1 (8/1 in some places) for the St Leger.
The Queen’s Vase is normally a stepping stone, particularly for horses trained by O’Brien who win the Queen’s Vase:
2013 - Leading Light (1st in the Queens Vase and 1st in the St Leger)
2016 - Sword Fighter (1st in the Queens Vase and 5th in the St Leger)
2018 - Kew Gardens (1st in the Queens Vase and 1st in the St Leger)
Further confidence can be taken from O’Brien’s comments after Santiago’s victory this week - “He’s a lovely straightforward horse. He travelled well and we always thought he would stay well. He’s an easy horse to train and an easy horse to get fit. We’ve been thinking he was an ideal St Leger horse so we’ll look for another run somewhere between now and then really. I’m not sure he’d run in a Derby as he could be a Cup horse for next year - he’ll get better from three to four. We’ve plenty for both Derbys, the Irish Derby would come too quick anyway but we’ll see what the lads want to do. We think he’ll be a horse for the Cup races next year so that is why we thought this race would suit him.”
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Military March looks the likely one for the Leger to me. Probably will stay on into a place at Epsom. He is bred to stay very well..
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Agree with OP and have taken the 10/1.
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I think Santiago put up a good show in the Queen Vase easily accounting for Berkshire Rocco who was also 2nd to the present Derby fav English King. This is his ultimate objective this season, and is 8/1.
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I quite fancy Tuscan Gaze - love the way he goes about his business - but the dam side is a bit speedy for comfort.
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Yes, Santiago looks all over a Leger horse.
Had Innisfree down as a poss Derby/Leger horse, tho I think I read a few weeks ago that he had a small setback in the spring?? |
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O/T
Has Military March lost a leg? His price for The Derby has been drifting like a barge the last few days; matched at 11.5 just a moment ago. |
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Not sure if something happened to him but he looked a truly crazy short price before. His win in the Autumn Stakes looked very promising and the effort of a stayer, but it was not top class form.
His full brother stayed 1 mile 5. His guineas run was like a stayer. I might be wrong but he did not strike me as a horse with the pace of a Derby winner. I would back him at 12 or 14s for the Derby, but he was half those odds! |
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I think Military March does have the pace for a Derby race maybe even be involved at the business end. He's won a Gp3 over 8f; won at 7f; 4th in Gp1. The same cannot be said of English King - the short price fav; Kameko, if staying, will be the likeliest winner, I believe, unless Mogul is super fit - he does have the form.
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Despite AOB’s comments regarding the Irish Derby coming round too quick for Santiago, he’s currently favourite for the race on Saturday ...
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Santiago wins the Irish Derby, roll on September!
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Have laid off my 2 points stake on Santiago at just over 3/1 and had a point on Dwan Patrol at 12/1 as well, he was a massive eyecatcher today.
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Problem will be which St Leger?
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Is the Irish Leger not open to 3yr olds and above unlike the English Leger confined only to 3 yr olds? I think Santiago is Doncaster bound.
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Serpentine was gifted the Epsom Derby, and I do not think he'd be a match for Santiago - he's also not proven over 14f; Love is very, very, very unlikely for commercial reasons, and her main objective could be The ARC eg Magical (ran as a 3 yr old).
English King does not seem a likely runner, and the running of Mogul at Epsom does not indicate he's a Leger horse either. |
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I wouldn't be surprised if AOB chooses the Leger for i of his colts yet to win a group 1. Likely candidates, imo, would be Tiger Moth, who looked every inch a stayer behind Santiago in the Irish Derby and Dawn Patrol likewise, who would surely have finished closer with a clear run. Either of them would be warm favourites to win the race without Santiago or Serpentine in the line up. I agree that Love has bigger fish to fry and will not run in the Leger so close to the Arc.
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I like Santiago as he can quicken at the business end eg he demolished Berkshire Rocco over 1m 6f after quickening away about 2f out. Similarly, in the Irish Derby over 12f. I believe he pulled-out a little bit more holding Tiger Moth when the latter got closer to him despite 12f. But, he's a stronger stayer over 1m 6f as demonstrated in the Queens Vase.
I just hope he does not do an Idaho in the race. |
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Don't you think that from Coolmore's financial point of view, the more group 1/ classic winners the better. I agree that the Leger would be not much more than a formality for Santiago and for those of you who've taken the price I hope he runs for you, but I just don't see how adding a Leger to his resumé is going to enhance his value. Good Luck anyway, I wont have a bet until I know who's running, unless someone lays me evens AOB's selected. Now wouldn't that be a bet!
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2.25 Newm today, another Leger Trial, another AOB possible in Dawn Rising who has a very similar pre Derby profile to Serpentine.
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I've had a couple of small plays on English King, he looked a Leger horse to me on his Derby run. Granted some nice ground come Leger time (Gd or faster) he's a major player for me. Was surprised to see him at 18.0 & 17.0 on here last week, also had a bit ew at 12/1 with SB (best price with the books) He runs in the Gordon Stks this week ( a Leger trial) so hopefully a nice win their & then onto Dony.
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Mogul's top price 10s(6-7/1 most books),
read Obrien thought he might not be a 12F horse before todays race,can't see this turning up at Donny,can yous? |
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I had an odd £6.49 on my BF a/c and got it matched at 35.94 on the exchange on Tiger Roll. I've got no idea whether or not he will run, but worth a punt imo.
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A bit early to be backing Tiger Roll, but you know I meant Tiger Moth!
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AOB ran 3 against Logician last year and 5 (Kew Gardens) in 2018. At the moment only 2 being backed ie Santiago and Dawn Patrol, and zilch for Tiger Moth; Mogul and Serpentine are elsewhere bound, all things being equal.
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Zilch for Tiger Moth? He is best priced at 12/1, with the majority of layers at 8/1 or 15/2, most bookmakers have him shorter than Dawn Patrol! Do your homework before you spout this dribble impossible, you really are a tiresome individual sometimes. Tiger Moth runs in a Group 3 at Leopardstown on Thursday and I doubt whether "the lads" will decide where he goes afterwards before then.
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Poor effort from E K ?? Didn't look happy from a fair way out?? His temperament looks a tad iffy to me?? Gelding op soon?? or a set of cheek pieces ?? He doesn't look to be putting it all in to me??
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I make you right, wouldn't back him until his form improves.
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one at a decent price with untapped potential is john gosdens darain unbeaten in 2 starts, bred in the purple cost a kings ransom and with the top uk trainer who knows what it takes to win this race . unraced at 2 he has taken both his races with the minimum of fuss not looking a flashier type but a solid staying performer , jg has said he is more scope than his brother too darn hot did . has a lot to find on the ratings but is progressive and should have loads more improvement to come .16/1 with some firms and at that price i have played each way .
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looking more deeply at the race and at the front of the market love and mogul possibly wont turn up and santiago obviously holds a decent chance but coolmores others although must be respected dont look world beaters and darain comes under the could be anything bracket and 16s each way looks very fair imo.
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looks like serpentine and mogul likely going to france and bypassing the ledger , if darain goes for the voltigeur at york it will be a big hint on their intentions as logician took theyork race in on his way to ledger glory .
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JG has another big improver in Hamdan's Almighwar. Wonderful pedigree like Darain but a much bigger price - same sire and just as much stamina on the dams side. At one stage Shadwell thought this might be their Derby horse, but he is a big old boy and has taken his time.
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Military March looks like missing the
gig. |
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thanks for that penzance , as said earlier this race will cut up ,also the fav looks vulnerable after the goodwood cup run ,beaten by stradavarious is no disgrace but youd have hoped he would have finished in front of nayef road receiving weight . darain has to find loads but being lightly raced should carry on progressing ,at big prices you can afford to have a few shots and as pointed out by blackburn almighwar has the right profile and i will add him at 25s each way .
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Looks like you may have found one FW, Darain is still in the Voltigeur and is one of the favs to win it. AOB has left a couple of good yardsticks in the race, in Mogul and my EW fancy Tiger Moth. Good race in prospect.
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hukum throws hes hat into the ring with a smart performance at newbury yesterday coud be called the winner a fair way out and very lightly raced and progressive and around 10s now and a genuine contender if he continues on the up. only concern is if the trainer can be trusted to get him there a1 on the day , encouraging he had him primed to win at royal ascot 1st time up . this one looks to be progressing very well .
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hopefully driver ! darain has a good bit to find but as said well bred and unexposed with shirley more to come ! gosden has no problem stepping them up in class if he feels they are good enough ! palace piers comes to mind straight into group 1 after a couple of novice wins and a handicap so encouraging that he is aiming darain at the voltigeur ,wether he is good enough we will see .
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The potential and stamina limitation of Darain has been fully exposed today; a furlong or 2 too far, I'd imagine. But Pyledriver is a serious contender if staying the trip; Dawn Patrol is stuffed; no whisper or taker even at 15 here for Tiger Moth.
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yep darain non stayer ,had a bit more on almighgwar on here at 51/1 this morning in case darain blew out ,also have hukum at 12s and 10s .
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I hope the Japanese do not come in with a big bid for Pyledriver like they did for Broome, and make the Arc the target. Pyledriver seems to be the only one with proven form to trouble Santiago; Mogul is likely Grand Prix De Paris bound similarly English King esp if Pyledriver is coming this way.
I've not given Hokum serious consideration (yet) as he needs to improve to challenge Santiago and Pyledriver, I believe. My two for this are Santiago and Pyledriver (after today). |
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Pyledriver is heading this way, according to his trainer today. The reason being it's a Classic, and its confined to 3yr olds. As such, I make Pyledriver a serious and formidable opposition to Santiago; ability proven with only a slight doubt about his stamina, but he did not look like stopping when winning convincingly in the Voltigeur giving 3lbs to the others.
I think today's decision by connections of Pyledriver could have meant English King is more likely Grand Prix De Paris bound. Santiago is 5/2 with Pyledriver at 5/1 (still value, I believe). English King has taken a walk. Only 3 weeks to the final Classic of season. Then the Arc follow by Champions Day at Ascot. |