FLAT TURF 2020 BIG RACES THREAD

Hi Facts .....Sorry for delay,replied.

Been away for a break,not on any flat winnings I hasten to add

Every man and his dog on King Ottokar,stuck him up LTO,he does look primed if the handbrake is off.

See how the first few races go,noted track bias plenty of times here before,tempers any enthusiasm.

GL

1335 Curragh - Romantic Proposal 1.4pt Win 8’s (Various)

Replied noc

B/F + 40.9 pts


Balmoral Hcap -Ascot

2 pts win Tempus  8/1 ( BOG). b 3 6 5

2-48 hayd

Mikmak 0.5pt

Just Hiss 0.5pt

Ascot.

3.40 Addeybb 2pts

4.15 Tempus 2pts.

ASCOT 1.55 SONAIJLA 1 PT EW 16/1 5 PLS BF/SB

Champion Sprint - Chiefofchiefs 1pt EW 66’s (PP 5pl)
1645 Leapordstown - Melburnian 1pt Win 7’s (Various)

Sprint - Lope Y Fernandez 1.5pt ew 14/1, bfsb

1545 Catterick - Justanotherbottle 1pt Win 18’s (888)

1425 Leopardstown - Surrounding 1pt Win 11’s (B365)

ASCOT 3.40 PILEDRIVER 14/1 BOG 1 PT EW 4 PLS SKY/B

1-20 ascot

Broome 0.5pt

Dawn Patrol 0.5pt

GL Everyone

1-55 ascot

Cape Byron 0.5pt

Glen Shiel 0.5pt

Sonaily 0.5pt

^^^^

Sonaiyla

2-30 ascot

Mehdaayih 0.5pt

Frankly Darling 0.5pt

QE2 - Escobar 0.4pts Win 80’s (Various)

WD Noc with Glen Shiel

Enjoyed that one....thanks Fab

3-05 ascot

Roseman 0.5pt

Molatham 0.5pt

Lord Glitters 0.5pt


Lets see if  any go up that far rail.

3-40 ascot

Japan 0.5pt

Extra Elusive 0.5pt

Pyledriver 0.5pt

At it again I see fabulous

Thanks Harry

Balmoral - Ropey Guest 1.5pts EW 40’s (Sky 6pl)

Keep well

Keep well

You too mate, hopefully see you on jumps thread through the winter.

Fab

4-15 ascot

Raising Sand 0.5pt

Ropey Guest 0.25pt

Symbolize 0.25pt

Raakib Alhalwa 0.25pt

Well Played again CC64.....Quality Hit

Well played Custard

B/F  +45   IP 1.9

Cesarewitch -3.5
Nicholas T -1.8
Chatez -0.5
Laugh A Minute -0.9
Wise Counsel -0.5
Wembley -0.9
Chiefofchiefs -2
King Ottokar
Melburnian -1
Ropey Guest -3
Escobar -0.4

Surrounding +11
Justanotherbottle +18

C/F  +59.5

-7.5 5 IP

+18 Adeybb
-3 Max Vega
-2.5 Max Vega
-3 Ebury
-2 Cold Front
-2 Highland Chief
+1 Shelir
+4 Plantadream
+1 Cesarewith
-3 King Otto
-3 Lope Y fenr

-1.5 0 IP 

some nice winners todays, well done Noc, fab, cc

Thanks Sint

Sorry Sint, missed your Adeybb bet, well played

Very well played sin,noc,fab and cc. Nice priced winners


Didn't even get a run !!!  The last minute withdrawal of Tempus was a big disappointment !
Had an outstanding chance imo - and subsequent result, proved his draw was perfect..

Addeybe Won.BSP 10.

Tempus N/R.

C/F  + 50pts.

4:15 Naas Shahmiyna 1pt ew 12/1, 3.65

Well Done Sint

He gave that a lovely ride from the outside stall,some horse when he gets his ground.

Agreed Facts,ended up backing stalls 1 and 3 for that reason alone,it did not work out on this occasion.

Carbon copy of the Cambridgeshire,those drawn high yesterday had a mountain to climb.

King Ottokar ran another eyecatcher,one for next season when he gets his ground.

The winning time beat the QE2 by 0.10 secs,with Njord carrying a 1 lb more than The Revenant.

Time will tell how strong that handicap form is,all part of the puzzle.

Adding 0.5pt ew same bet Shamiyna

-22.87

st/sb -1
rm /danz -1
mik / j hiss -1
br / d pat -1
c by /sh -1
g shiel +9.47  (19.85)
meh / fd -1
rose/mol/lg -1.5
****/py/e elu -1.5
rs/rg/sym/r alw -1.25

-23.65 / 0 IP

One step forward,two back,almost over for the season

**** = japan,strange that was deleted

Facts ....Your ascot NR is entered at newbury saturday,over 10f ?

Fab ....Your favourite two Goldie horses also entered at newbury.

Long old trek if they do take up the entries,NT dropping to a dangerous mark,Pulrennan booked

2.45 Newm Act Of Wisdom 2pt 11/4, 3.65

3.20 Newm 1pt ew Sunset Kiss 11/2, 3.65 1pt win Sun Bear 5/1, 3.65

-1.5 0 IP

-3 Shamiyna
-1 Sun Bear
-2 Sunset Kiss
+6.66 Act of Wisdom

-0.84

WP Sint

Pull your finger out,almost back in the black

WP Sint

Yeah Noc, took 8’s for Euchen Glen during the week, and hopeful. Not sure about the ground for Nicholas T, but he’ll be a nice price. Problem with that race is that Aasheq, and Chatez catch the eye too.

Last weeks outlay 4pts return 0pts P/L + 14.4

DONC 2.40 BROKEN SPEAR 18/1 BOG 4 PLS 1 PT EW W/H

Well done winners

noc

re. Tempus today at Newbury. Too short a price for me.

1.45 Donc Lippizaner 2pt 4/1, 3.65

2.55 Donc Wembley 2.5pt 13/8 var

3.30 Donc Conservatoire 2pt 2/1, BV 1pt ew Grantley 18/1, 3.65

3.35 Newbruy Existent 1.5pt ew 5/1, 3.65

4.10 Newbury - Away He Goes 2pt win 11/2 var, 1pt win Natural History var

OUT 2 PTS RETURN 0 PTS P/L + 12.4

DONC 4.05 ARBALET 1 PT EW 5 PLC BOG BF/SB

13/2 Natural History

1420 York - Orvar 0.5pt Win 15-2 (Various)

17-2 Orvar

2.20 Donc Mighty Spirit 1.5pt ew 9/2, 888

1-10 donc  Dash Of Spice 1pt

4.45 New: 0.5 ew Kenzi Warrior 14/1 (hills)

2-20 newb

Orvar 0.5pt

Rayong 0.5pt

WP Sint

2-55 donc

State Of Rest 0.5pt

Mac Swiney 0.5pt

WP Sint and Noc

1605 Doncaster - Get Knotted 1pt Win 16’s (888)

Cheers bud

4-05 donc

Get knotted 1pt

1645 Newbury
Chatez 1pt Win 8’s
Nicholas T 0.5pts EW 66’s
Various

4-45 newb

Kenzei Warrior 0.33pt

Chatez 0.33pt

Torcello 0.33pt

yesterday out 2 pts in 0 pts P/L + 10.4

-23.65

d of sp -1
orv/ray -1
sor -0.5
mac swin +7.58  (16.17)
get kn -1
kw/ch/torch -1

-20.57 / 0 IP

B/F  +59.5

Orvar -0.5
Get Knotted -1
Chatez -1
Nicholas T -1

C/F  +56

well done Fab +56 sweeeet

Thanks CH

3-15 newm

Graignes 0.5pt

Modern Millie 0.5pt

2.35 Naas Hector Du Maris 2pt 9/2, 3.65. White Pepper 1pt ew 9/1 3.65 4pl

Morning Sint ..... Hope your well

-20.57

Gra /mod mill -1

-21.57

The hits keep coming,modern millie 14/1 done a sh,Torcello 25/1 week before done a hd.

Got to love this game sometimes,onwards.

And you Noc.

It is a tough game, been treading water all season. Hopefully your luck turns soon

-0.84
+8 Lippizaner
+4 Conservatoire
-2 Grantly
-3 existent
-2 Awat He goes
-1 Natural Histroy
0.0 Mighty Spirit
+11 Hector Du Maris
-2 White Pepper

+12.16 0 IP

Nice hit..... WP

B/F + 40.9 pts


November H'cap.    Euchen Glen. 2 pts win ( BOG) 15/2  b3 6 5

I’ll be joining you Facts

1745 Dundalk - Tommy Taylor 1pt win 20’s (B365)

By my standards 1.25points ew by my standards breeders cup classic 20/1 4 places
Toms detat 1 point ew no doubt both tailed but anyway I’ve had a good bet all the best

12.50 Naas Wood Ranger 1pt ew 9/2, var. 0.5pt win Mickey The Steel 10/1, var

Nov hcap- Dash of Spice & Hiroshima, 16/1 & 20/1 both 1pt ew 3.65

1400 Naas - De Name Escapes Me 0.9pt Win 10’s (Various)

12-55 donc

Kynren 0.33pt

Firmament 0.33pt

Gabriel The Devil 0.33pt

1330 Doncaster - Chiefofchiefs 1.9pt Win 33’s (888)

1400 Naas - Western Boy 1pt Win 66’s (Koral)
November Handicap - Euchen Glen 3pt Win 15-2 (Various)

1-30 donc

Majical Journey 0.33pt

Dancing Vega 0.33pt

Maygold 0.33pt

2-05 donc

Born With Pride 0.5pt

Moll Davis 0.5pt

WP Fab

3-15 donc

Dash Of Spice 0.5pt

Indianapolis 0.33pt

Glencadam Glory 0.33pt

Torchello 0.33pt

3.-15 Dony: 0.5 win Sam Cooke, Euchan Glen (bf/sp)

9.33 BC: 1pt win Tarnawa (bf/sp)

Wd fab

6:57 keeneland Cayenne Pepper 1pt ew 8/1 3.65

9.33 Kenneland Mogul 1.5pt ew 7/2 3.65

3-45 donc

Lord Oberon 0.5pt

Queens Sargent 0.5pt

noc

Unlucky with Firmament

WP Miller .....Very impressive performance from the filly.

-21.57

ky/firm/gtd -1
mj/dv/may -1
bwp/m dav -1
dos/ind/gg/torch -1.5
l ob/qs -1

-27.07

Season End

Close again Facts,at that point 3 of the last 4 races played, beaten in photo finnishes.

Betfair SP for those 3 was around 25,44 and 25,not ideal in the grand scheme of things.

No excuses on the effort front,put more work into this season than any other in recent memory.

There is one big factor that stood out for me,mid-way through the season.

Actually there were 3 factors.

The most obvious would be playing in races up to a certain distance.

I need to go back in detail,but I,m pretty sure anything below 1m 2f,affects  my P @ L massively.

Dismissing everything up to that distance,over a whole season,that would be interesting.

As always many in profit over the whole season,which I love to see.


In no particular order, well done to Facts,Cracked House,Custard,Sint,Fab and Miller,hopefully not missed anyone out.

Pleasure as always,take great care and above all stay safe.

Thanks noc. My Season ended in a whimper !
Hope next season you get inside the woodwork with those long shots !

Interesting your betting/ results pattern indicates an avoidance of sprint races.
My analysis shows ( with a tweak in the rules ) the very opposite.!

5f - 8f  C2 Hcaps with form and weight indicators, will be my focus. Small fields ( single figures ), were a big loss.
Tactical / false pace ?
Checked this field size over previous two years. Same result. Fields of 14 or more runners produced a far greater profit.

Well done to all showing a profit

Keep the faith

Stay safe guys

WP all, enjoyed doing The Flat this year, hopefully back for more in The Spring

Cheers noc :-)  she's very smart indeed, thought he'd left her with too much to do??? I'd say she's the best 12f horse this year. Been a star angle flat season (sums up this buggered up year since late March :-(( )  Here's hoping for a far more positive year ahead for us all ^^^  Gd luck for the NH season +++

(Been a "strange flat season" that should read!!! :-)) lol

+12.16

0.0 Wood Ranger
-0.5 Mick The Steel
-2 Dash of Spice
+4 Hiroshima
-3 Mogul
-2 Cayenne Pepper

+8.66

wd folks in profit as always. It's a tough game!

Onwards to the NH thread Noc. Start your season right by backing Mister Fisher & Thyme White in an eachway double.

Final total + 50pts.


Well done to everyone showing a profit over the season.

See you on the NH thread!

Cheers cc.