Horse Antepost
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One of the best races of the season and my fav handicap before Xmas. Who will join the likes of Denman, Native River, Many Clouds and Bobs Worth
It pays to side with the second season chasers and I’m going for On the Blind Side. A good hurdler he’s taken time to adjust to the bigger obstacles but he was favourite against Defi Du Seuil, Black Op and Lostintranslation at Cheltenham last year. Off 149 there is plenty of wiggle room and shaped as if a longer trip would suit at Ascot last time. 12/1 seems a reasonable bet.
Elegant escape would be of interest of the older horses if he turned up. He may have a few pounds too many but will be staying on at the end of the race.
Any thoughts a week out ?
It pays to side with the second season chasers and I’m going for On the Blind Side. A good hurdler he’s taken time to adjust to the bigger obstacles but he was favourite against Defi Du Seuil, Black Op and Lostintranslation at Cheltenham last year. Off 149 there is plenty of wiggle room and shaped as if a longer trip would suit at Ascot last time. 12/1 seems a reasonable bet.
Elegant escape would be of interest of the older horses if he turned up. He may have a few pounds too many but will be staying on at the end of the race.
Any thoughts a week out ?
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Elegant Escape would want softer ground than what is likely
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Well we're forecast rain all week so I think he will have it soft enough. Not that I will be backing him.
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One of my favourite races of the year. Not a vintage renewal in my opinion but have backed Elegant Escape, Yala Enki,Dingo Dollar and Joe Farrell to win and will back the place for as many places on offer when available.
All fully exposed but not keen on any of the young pretenders. |
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Elegant Escape may not be a second season chaser, but I wouldn't describe him as one of the "older" horses.
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O K Corral is well handicapped as are The Conditional , Regal Encore and Walt .
Regal Encore caught a Tartar in Vinndicated but ran really well in second place . He has only gone up 1lb so has to be considered for e/w purposes . If Walt goes to post he will not be 40/1 . |
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Two Taffs looks a very likely runner with Skelton already listed as jockey. He’d been off a long time before his good run in the Worlds End race over hurdles. I’ve always thought he had a big race in him and 20/1 plus is too big. Second run back is the big worry though.
I’ve been invited into one of the big bookies box’s at Newbury on Saturday so looking forward to a great day. |
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any weather reports from locals,
tia |
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I am a big fan of Elegant Escape but I agree about Regal Encore who is best on RPR.
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Not local but i would be very wary of the good to soft ( soft in places ) going report
 particularly as they have omitted the going stick reading on their latest update |
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Newbury
2019-11-29 - Newbury Updated - November 28th 2019, 7:24:02 am Soft, Good to Soft (in places) 6.5mm of rain on Wednesday 4mm of rain on Tuesday 3mm of rain on Monday Still no stick reading |
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drizzle today, dry tomorrow but a night time frost fri into sat.
Ground will be hard work. |
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24 runners, survivor of the fittest and a bit of luck in running.
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I will take The Conditional and Walt .
The Conditional stays , jumps and goes on the ground . His last run looks pretty good now and he is a fair enough price . Walt has e/w chances at 40/1 and you might get bigger odds as the money suggests that he is the stable second string . |
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Tizzard 123?
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Could be Henderson 123.
More likely perm both trainers for the tricast |
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I have a little antepsot bet on De Rasher Counter @ 33/1 and with Robbie Power taking the ride I will add West Approach e/w on the day with 5 or 6 places.
It will be very interesting to see how the Henderson horses go in the market - both could be much better than their marks if things drop right. |
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Totally agree J W Henry.......In this day and age, a stick report.... or not, sums up the sport.
The single biggest factor that will stop me from having a punt,this is happening weekly. Good work Rease ....... Those readings taken from many courses,some on the same day,are an absolute joke,contradicting themselves with some fictitious number between 0-9,beggars belief. A little bedtime reading....... or the ramblings of a madman. 10/12 age 6-8 7/12 top 3 betting 6/12 won lto 8/12 ran within 57 days 8/12 ran at newbury 8/12 won newbury 11/12 min 3 starts over 24f or further 9/12 won over 3m or above 11/12 min 4 chase runs 12/12 min 2 chase wins 12/12 OR 146 or above 9/12 won grade 1-3 race 8/12 already had seasonal bow Only the mighty Denman has carried more than 11-06 to victory,in the last 12 runnings. The 146 minimum rating takes out another 7,but does the potential ground favour those lightly weighted ? A high percentage of recent winners have prev course form. 2 horses stand out to me,Rease has mentioned one in his shortlist. Hold fire until we see the times tomorrow,intriguing race to get a handle on,whole host angles. |
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Ground looks good rather than soft. Could be a big change in market if that is the case.
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Chucked a few quie ew Walt, good luck all.
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yep, times suggest revised going description is fair - have backed Robinsfirth ew and will add OK Corral win only.
Will probably leave it at that - good luck,everyone! |
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well done uncle
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^ Matt Brocklebank takes all the credit for that one Foyles.
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also tipped by Graham Rodway and Keith Melrose in RP today.
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Only a place on the winner to show for it today but my bet on Elegant Escape for the National has nearly halved in price so I have laid off for now.
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Brocklebanmk tipped it up on Nov 14th - 2nd year running he has advised the winner at 33/1 antepost.
 It’s a bit more realistic to think that Ok Corral (151) could have something to spare from his current rating but he’s been well found in the betting and at a much bigger price DE RASHER COUNTER (33/1 Sky Bet, 888Sport, Unibet) stands out. Everything about him screams ‘Newbury in winter’, not least because he beat Walt in a novices’ handicap chase at this venue last December, form that was franked quite nicely with the runner-up going on to win at Kempton off 5lb higher on his next start. After opening his chase account at Newbury that day, De Rasher Counter went on to finish second to Now McGinty when giving him 6lb at Chepstow, before signing off for the season with a resounding success on heavy going at Uttoxeter. That race has been won by some good horses down the years, including Harry Fry’s American (2017) who was sent off 5/1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy on his very next start. That helps put De Rasher Counter’s price into some sort of context while he also has the benefit of a pipe-opening spin over hurdles back at Uttoxeter last month. The red-hot conditional Ben Jones rode him on that occasion which opens up the prospect of him getting on board and taking off a valuable 5lb at Newbury, but even with Adam Wedge back in the saddle, Emma Lavelle’s seven-year-old could well be capable of defying his revised rating (149). Lavelle historically does well at this time of the year and has been in sizzling form through the early weeks of November already, while she’s seemingly confirmed her big-race contender to be on course for a Newbury gallop at the Winter Festival press launch next Tuesday. If all goes well there then it’s very hard to see his current price holding up and should the stable continue to fire in the winners De Rasher Counter may genuinely end up nearer the top of the Ladbrokes Trophy betting than the bottom. |
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33/1 into 12 is a serious punt in a race like that.
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WP Winners
Along with the serious punts on.... Cabaret Queen West Approach On The Blind Side Elegant Escape etc,etc,etc The Art of Illusion some might say. Which horses drifted to offset the above ? The 141% over-round might give you the answer. De Rasher counter was returned 20.06 on betfair. The tote win return £17.30 Fairly recent.....skysports stopped producing the markets pre-race,racingpost and sportinglife are not quoting all horse movements,very strange. Is there anywhere now to find markets pre-race ? |
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The market that matters is on here. The bookmakers use it as well as punters. Of course there will be several horses backed in this kind of handicap but 2 of the late moves were backed up by results. The winner and third were heavily backed late. Beware The Bear was unconsidered by most because of the money for other Henderson runners. On course bookmakers will shorten plenty of horses in the last minute or so to reduce liability in shops.
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