HKIR Dec 2019

My HKIR ante post bets over the last few weeks...

HK Vase
Loves Only You: 16-1 EW NR
Lucky Lilac: 13-1 EW

HK Sprint
Beat The Clock: 17-2 EW
Danon Smash: 18-1 EW

HK Mile
Normcore: 15-1 EW

HK Cup
Win Bright: 20-1 EW

Sticking with these bets unless some wacky prices pop up tomorrow... which normally always happens at this meeting!

Triple Triple R1
I Do/Cinquante Cinq R2
High Rise Soldier R3
AVD Win Deirdre ew - Vase
BTC win Danon Smash ew Sprint
Star of Yuen Long R6
Indy Champ Win - Mile
Win Bright win - Cup
R9 and R10 TBD

Indy Champ will be the main bet I think....depends how races 1-3 go!!

Good luck!

The one thing that worries about AVD is they’ve put blinkers on for the first time

R6 - I meant to add Classic Posh ew

Those HK Handicaps give me a real headache, I like to steer clear of them... you're a brave boy.

Maybe his run at the Breeders Cup made them go for the blinkers... interesting?!

Lucky Lilac had her QE Cup form boosted this morning, Satono Garnet who finished 9th in that race won the G3 at Chukyo. I will take any positive after that dodgy vet report!

I think Indy Champ is sure to run well but Normcore is bang there with him if you use Aerolithe (super consistent filly) as a guide and the times they both clocked at Tokyo (G1 Victoria Mile 1m 30.5sec / G1 Yasuda Kinen 1m 30.9sec) are near enough identical... Normcore slightly quicker. Hopefully one of them wins.

All the best tomorrow!

Not a bad start... Beat The Clock is the ultimate warrior. Awesome riding by the Magic Man.

I think Lucky Lilac would have won if she wasn't lame, great run!

Glory Vase impressive and came on a ton for his first run after a long break... that's the Japanese way.

Three winners out of six so far... superb HK.

Not the most stylish jock but he galavenised Win Bright for another great win at Sha Tin... get in.

Normcore narrowly missing out for a place screwed my EW 4 fold... thought she had them covered coming into the straight but she didn't pick up like she has at Tokyo. She was 4.5 lenghts in front of Amdire Mars last time out!

*Admire Mars!

Great tipping HK and MrDinos.

Cheers Unc.

Unusually for me I didn’t have any bets this year - looked through the races last night but nothing appealed at the prices. Closest I came was Hot King Prawn in the sprint so glad I sat it out.

The unlucky horse of the meeting was surely Indy Champ in the mile.

Holy sh!t what a run by Riko HK, massive performance... jumping was sublime. Had a little bit on EW!

Yep Unc, Indy Champ had no clear run on the rail. He didn't come out the gates that great which put him in a tricky position early on.

Dubai Turf could be a good race for Normcore... going left handed, extra furlong and a more galloping track will suit her better.

What a day, very happy for you HK!

Cracking day - I made Win Bright my main bet in the end and also had the quinella!

KR topped it off nicely....think he’ll get hammered now by the handicapper though! Target was Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and the run yesterday was to put him right but.....wow! Shame he didn’t run like that at the festival!

He jumped for fun yesterday and traveled sweetly all the way. Great training performance, there is more to come from Riko... shame his handicap mark will be shooting up?! He loves December, four big performances on the trot, unbelievable!

I still think a flat track is what he wants and yesterday proved it for me. I can understand why you want to go the Cheltenham route but from what I've seen of his runs over the last few years, that kind of course doesn't play to his strengths. His run at Chepstow over hurdles always stuck in my head, he didn't seem to enjoy that very undulating track. Just my opinion HK... you're going to have another fun season with Riko wherever you take him.

He’s gone up 6 Mr D - unlikely to run New Years Day but will race in Jan on 11th or the week after depending on other entries (especially the race on 11th at Kempton

I think going up 6 was pretty fair, 149 is still OK IMO. Skipping Cheltenham on Wednesday would be a wise move as I mentioned before... it would be great to see him run on New Years Day but he looks much better on a flat track and Kempton would be ideal, especially with how slick Riko jumps a fence.

La Bague Au Roi ran well yesterday at Doncaster, not far off winning.

The issue with Kempton on 11th is that there’s a suggestion Altior might run in the race as it seems the owners are still trying to make him into a GC horse - it’s also more suited to front running so possibly the handicap at Ascot on 18th could be a better proposition (the one Cyrname won in 2019 when rated 150 I think).

Nicky Henderson has announced Altior will not take up his entry in the Unibet Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton this weekend — and also revealed his only entry at Cheltenham in March will be the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Henderson will now wait for the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury on February 8.

Yes, watched with interest as Altior drifted this morning, we weren’t confirmed to definitely to run as he was going to have an entry for Ascot the week after for the handicap race but this now could be his best chance at a graded race and it still could be a 4 runner race.

I think KR will get further than 2.5miles, anyway fingers crossed for Saturday, very exciting, we’ve got an extra 2lb from Top Notch and he’d had an extra run so we will be fitter, is Frodon as good as last season, is he on the decline?

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/horseracing/10697001/kauto-riko-kempton-satur...

Gold Cup entry HKA ?

We can all dream Bobby....he’ll have a RA one too, it’s just in case he surprises us again - which we think he can.

Thinking was it’s not that expensive to enter and if he does improve again from his first run we think he’ll get further than 2.5miles, he’s definitely improved again this year and as he’s rated 149 now running in handicaps means he’ll be giving weight, so we’ll have some fun. We’re very lucky as horses like him don’t come around all the time for normal people!

Great stuff - living the dream !
Good luck

Cannot wait to see how Riko gets on Saturday. Thanks for link HK, Tom seems confident of a big run... if he jumps and travels like he did last time he should be bang there at the finish. I just wish it was still December!

All the best HK... and the Tom Gretton team.

Cheers Mr D - I’m just hoping he runs well so I can get over in March!

AtTheRaces Predictor has Riko the clear winner... hopefully this prediction comes true!

Riko jumped well again and came back safe... that's the main thing. No disgrace giving it a go today.

He did jump very well again, as he always does. Just seemed to me that he was jumping to stay in the race and not jumping to take him into the race - if that makes sense?

Think he’ll have a break and then go back to handicap over further, I think he could do very well in those races on soft ground as he’s a very sound jumper and looks like he should get further.

No disappointment for Saturday, he’s proved he can mix it at that level (but maybe only in December

Tomorrow’s G1 sprint I’m having DB Pin ew. Think he’s the value at the current prices, think BTC will be hard to beat again but DB Pin wax2nd up after another injury from a bad draw in the Dec sprint so I’m hoping he can make up the 2l he needs to find

I will be just watching tomorrow HK, only 7 runners for the two G1 races and I don't want to go against BTC. The Stewards' Cup looks trappy but Waikuku surprised me in the HK Mile, if he puts in the same performance he should win... I suppose a Magic Man double is the easy option if I had to have a bet?!

Do you have anything for Race 9 (6f Class 2 Handicap)?

You’ve probably picked the hardest race on the card there Mr D!!

Think you’d need to see how the track is riding, if it’s suiting on pace/front runners then the fav looks good off the weight he carries vs the horse that beat him last run, though that one should improve as he’s only had 2 runs in HK.

I’ll take a chance on the Teetan ride at the prices though, but he’s a hold up horse (so far) and you’d need to see if the track is suiting that type of horse.

My bet tomorrow is the 4 in R4 (not a lucky bet in Cantonese)! Hoping with the better draw he’ll go very very close and is still around 9-2.

Each way bet at around 10-1 is the 3 in R8....I like the 10lb claimer when they’re on a front runner with a low draw.

Yep, I sure know how to pick them HK... I like a challenge but all these handicaps look super difficult. If the pace was guaranteed to be strong the one I like at an EW price is Raging Storm but he still might need to come down weights a bit more. The shorter price runners all look like they have a decent chance of going close. I will take your advice and see how the track is riding... and what the pices are like tomorrow before having a bet!

You’re spot on with your selection Mr D and I have him 3rd pick but JM not riding put me off picking him
Ew.

Pity the big races are both seven runner affairs but for an interest I’ve done a Furore / Hot King Prawn each way double.

The 4 in R4 was very disappointing, didn’t progress from first run and ran very green.

Good luck uncle - I’m going to have to hope that the 3 wins R8 now to make it a profitable day! DB Pin in the sprint is a bit speculative so not a big financial interest.

Magic Man was superb on Waikuku, looked like he always had Beauty Gen covered and he won a shade cosy at the finish. That race shows how strong the Japanese milers are from the HK Mile... Dubai Turf will be going to Japan again this year IMO, they should have a strong line up in Dubai.

I thought Furore would have run better than that Unc, he was a shade unlucky in the HK Cup... looks like a mile is too short for him. It was my doubt for him today!

Raging Storm is a shorter price than I thought he would be, hopefully he will drift before the off?! If he does I will have a dabble.

Never in doubt

What a sprinter, what a horse... didn't come out the gates great but he still got the job done with a turbo charged finish. Another great ride by the Magic Man.

Nice winner HK.

Just held on....pity about the price, was $9.9 last night and went off $6.7

Yep, that's a sh!tter when that happens... Hong Kong betting?!

The 11 just got up, was cursing Teetan

Another HK, bang on with that one. The light weights had it between them at the finish. Raging Storm not great and no excuses.

I’m thanking you for that one Mr D I wouldn’t have touched the race if you hadn’t asked me for my opinion!

I'm glad it worked out for you!!

Tomorrow is the 2nd race in the 4yo series....I’m expecting a much better run from my Derby bet which is Enjoying (20-1 with B365). The front 2 are obviously decent animals but if you watch Enjoying’s last 2 runs he’s been a bit unlucky from bad draws. I’m hoping he runs a place tomorrow which will set him up nicely for March.

Doesn't seem much pace in the race tomorrow HK and the fancied ones seem better held up, which could be tricky for them. I've been a Butterfield backer in his last two races and going to stick with him for the Derby if he runs!? The one I like in the Classic Cup is Private Secretary, he beat Butterfield first time up at Happy Valley and then ran a poor race dropped back in trip at Sha Tin... didn't settle! Butterfield ran in that race as well and ran OK but stepped up in trip next time he ran much better and won. I get the feeling Private Secretary will run much better this time going back up in trip again as well, he was a 12f winner for John Gosden. Gets the same barrier as he did at Happy Valley which could help him get a nice run up the rail if there is no pace.

I can see why you are sticking with Enjoying HK, especially with Bowman on. The pace of the race is going to make it or break it for a few of these!

How is Riko doing and any plans for his next race?

Oops, PS was an 11f winner for Gosden!

The pace wasn’t too bad in the end and I was quite pleased with the way Enjoying finished off, could be a decent lot of 4yos this season.

KR is in 2 handicaps at Cheltenham, he may get entries for this weekend at Newbury and Kelso(?) though.

Running at Kelso tomorrow only 5 declared so worth a go - he’s in good form and has had a decent break.

Intrigued to see how Riko gets on stepping up in trip... his jumping should give him a good chance. All the best HK!

He jumped surperbly again, shame the last two fences were omitted... that didn't help Riko at all!!

Absolutely, think he would have finished closer with the other fences in. Off to aintree now....

Yep, agree HK. Worth another crack at 3m on better ground... tough conditions today!

It might be back to 2m 5f at aintree Mr D......

Probably the best trip for him HK.

Potentially good trial too....there’s another go in Nov/Dec too though even if he doesn’t this time.

Giving it another go with Riko HK... interesting!

Indeed Mr D and I’ll be there this year.

Great stuff HK... hopefully Riko does you proud. Should get a nice EW price!

he’s a decent bet vs La Bague Au Roi based on the form of The Peterborough as that’s ones around 10-1. Last year he got a bit buzzed pre race so if he handles it better he could run a lot closer, he did finish well after losing his place a bit.

Very true HK, he's a lot better off at the weights with her in this race and price difference is massive. If Riko can run close to that Peterborough Chase form he's got to have good chance of going close. I've had my doubts about Cheltenham for him but if Noonan can get him nearer the pace this time, his jumping will put him bang in the race IMO.

The other concern is the short period between races, only 13 days could be a little tight.

Yep, that is a concern.

A race too soon, the plus is he ran on again and jumped well. Aintree is off anyway so he would have missed that run, there might be one more run this season but he's been dropped 5lb for that. Had a cracking day too, looked after nicely. Back to HK soon for the Derby though my AP bet is now not running so I'm hoping that Golden Sixty can win all 3, not convinced he'll stay though.

It was another one of those Cheltenham Festival races where past form at the course came to the fore. The first four all had previous wins at Cheltenham. The hustle and bustle of the race doesn't seem to suit Riko but he ran OK again and at least he's got some relif from the handicapper. Good to hear you had a cracking race day with Riko last week, it was once again a brilliant week of racing, shame we are not going to get the Grand National meeting or any big meetings in this country for a while.

At least we've still got some iinternational horse racing to watch and bet on!! The HK Derby looks to be going Golden Sixty's way, I thought 9f would be a struggle but he won the Classic Cup very cosy and I really don't think the extra furlong will be a problem having watched that race a few times. Just in case he doesn't see out the trip I will be sticking with Butterfield EW, the 20-1 available at the moment is fair value but I'm hoping to get a bigger price on the day. He will have no problem with the trip and I think there will be some big improvement from him going up to 10f!

Safe journey back to Hong Kong HK, it sounds like you will have 2 weeks of home quarantine to look foward to... strange times!

Yup, 2 weeks of home quarantine with an electronic tag so no sneaking out anywhere.....but I can see why it's being done, we still only have 4 deaths and 170 cases since January so the government must have done something right, although Asians have bitter experience in these things so probably did take it a little more seriously than other countries and regions.

I am going to do Champion's Way in the derby now, I think I am in the minority of 1 believing that Golden Sixty won't get the extra 200m, he was blowing hard after the 1800m race.

Good luck and stay safe!

Really tough times HK but you obviously know they do it for the best reasons in Hong Kong!

The good thing is we still have something to look foward to at the weekend, really interesting race... hopefully you are right about Golden Sixty HK!

At least I’ll have a lot more spare time to study the form as I can’t get out and do any exercise.  I am a runner, mainly to keep me out of harms way and the bad things you can find in Asia

This should also keep you interested....I’m hoping they have lifted the ban on spectators by the time this is on

https://racingnews.hkjc.com/english/2020/03/18/nominations-for-fwd-champions-day-at-sha-tin/?b_cid=EWRHRFE__

Sounds like that two week home quarantine is going to do your head in HK... but that might change if you find plenty of winners!?

Great to see Hong Kong keeping the international horse racing show on the road along with Japan... Dubai next week as well.

I’ve been working from home since the end of Jan anyway so it’s not a massive difference. Just this 2 weeks I can’t leave the house!

Not agreat draw for Butterfield in barrier 12 but there doesn't seem to be much pace in the race, so he might be able to get an OK position if he breaks well. He's still got to make massive improvement on the ratings, the step up in trip might help but the draw could hinder that chance now. The 35-1 (price boosted) on offer tempted me EW and I will have another bet tomorrow, if his price goes bigger.

Champion's Way's current price at 16-1 in Hong Kong is interesting HK, not sure that will hold up though with the Magic Man onboard. Extra furlong is the slight worry for me with him... a bit like Golden Sixty but if they do go slow and sprint, stamina might not matter that much.

The other one I like who is closely matched with Butterfield is Columbus County, he's got a nice draw in 3 but he could do with a strong pace and it don't look like he will get it!? Plus, like Butterfield, he's got to improve massively on the ratings.

According to the stats only the top 4 can win today based on their current rating, I’m on Champions Way but not for much as I hope GS can win.

My bets today, this will be an indication of whether too much time studying is counterproductive!

R2 - 5 each way, he’s only around 12-1 so isn’t the price I was hoping for, step up in trip should suit. Was hoping for around 20–1
R6 - 5 win, think he won with a lot in hand last race (beat the 11 who is now 5lb better off but I do t think he can reverse that form)
R7 - 11 win, my best bet. Looked a very good horse winning in C4 last run, up 11lbs for that but looks like getting an easy lead from gate 2 and is carrying a low weight, has the fav to beat but I think he’s the making of a very good horse.

Good luck with your Derby bets.

I'm sticking with Butterfield in the Derby, he's up against it on ratings and as you've mentioned HK... he's also up against it stats wise. Happy with the price though and hopefully he might nab a place.

I going with Assimilate in the lucky last EW. His price is shortening up in the UK but bigger in Hong Kong at the moment. Going to wait and see if I can get a better price!? I also like Star Shine but the price difference between him and Assimilate is making my mind up.

Wasn't looking to back anything else but noticed Super Fast is running in R6. Backed him in his last race when he looked like running much better than his finishing position. Stepping up to 1m 2f for the first time in Hong Kong might see him run much better. He won his maiden over that distance back in Ireland. Thought he would be a bigger price than he is at the moment. I can see why you are going with Winning Delight HK, especially with Purton onboard. He's just a bit short for me.

All the best with your bets today.

Really impressive win by Golden Sixty in a really messy race. Butterfield not good enough on the day as ratings suggested.

Didn't go quick enough but Assimilate ran on really well for the place money.

That was a very impressive display on a poor day for me, too much time doesn’t help! I’m glad he won, and he did do it in some style with a fairly decent tone. I’m not sure whether 1600m is his best distance though, hopefully we’ll see at the end of April how good he stacks up.

We’ve now got the return of Aethero to look forward to on the 5th April before he goes to the G1 at the end of April.

Interesting sprint on Sunday, HKP vs Aethero, looks like a tactical battle between ZP and JM. At the prices on offer I’d take HKP at 3-1 especially as this is Aethero’s first run since December and he’s only getting 4lb.

The mile will go to Waikuku i think.

Getting much rain at the weekend HK?

Very trappy races Sunday.

3 winners Sunday including the Japan race and ended up losing money

Wednesday night - best bet is R2 JM’s ride and each way R4 Gunnar

Good morning HK,

Glad to see HK racing is keeping us going, though I would like your view on why JM & ZP runners always seem to be much shorter than would otherwise be expected.

Are these two chaps so much better than the other pilots out there ?

I would appreciate your views.

Good Day WHJ,

Simplistically they probably are the better pilots but they do get the better horses to ride and at the moment with no world travel they have a duopoly. They are responsible for 40% of all winners and they each get placed 50% of their rides so you can see why they are so short.

It does work in your favour though as if you fancy one in a race and neither of them are riding then the price is generally overs.

4 picks today and having a go at the C5 races which I never do so must be going mad, especially as my best bet is the race 3 animal


R2 - Roman Odyssey ew
R3 - Amazing Agility
R8 - Enzemble
R11 - Ballistic King

I'll qualify that 40% - they both have a 20%  win strike rate on their rides, got a bit carried away with simple maths

A couple of EW stabs in the last two races.

There looks to be a good pace in R10 and the one which I did liked was Gift Of A Lifeline but he hasn't been missed by the HK punters and his price is shorter than expected. The 25-1 on offer last night for Picken was too big IMO so backed him. Gutsy win last time and nearly always runs his race, pace of the race and good draw should see him give it another good go... I hope.

I was going to stick with Dragon General in the lucky last but he's never backed up that well after a win and Lobo's Legend is better off at the weights with him. Concern with LL, hes's got another crap draw but dropping back in trip and the current EW price made my mind up. Star Shine was once again on my short list but I thought he would be a bigger price than he is at the moment!

R10: Picken 25-1 EW (4 places)
R11: Lobo's Legend 30-1 (4 places)

I should listen to the advice I give others about C5.....anyway, the last 2 won nicely.

Yep, nice couple of winners for you HK. Surprised it took them so long to step Ballistic King up in trip the way he won!?

The less said about my two picks the better but the punk on Picken looked like he'd never ridden a race horse before... dearie me! We live and learn.

Thank you for your reply HK.

For what it is worth I'd have ZP over JM in a match, but hey ho ?

My wife and I really enjoyed ST last year and your restaurant advice, and if the world get's back to normal we will be venturing your way later this year with any luck.

Again for what it is worth, I'd have ST over HV every time if you could only do one.

Regards.

You’re most welcome WHJ.

I’d take Purton on longer distance and 1000m but JM 1200m - 1600m but that could just be a false perception thing on my part.

If you’re going to come again then it should be the week of international races with the Wednesday before at HV for the international jockey challenge with the main event on the Sunday.

Stay safe!

3 group 1s this weekend, sadly no international interest and no trip to the track!! Hopefully will be able to watch on the TV at a watering hole (with food of course as is the current rule in HK)

No Golden Sixty but there is the chance to check the 4yo form with More Than This going in the mile, will Waikuku return from his substandard run last race.

Questions in the sprint too.

Race 3 for me tonight, cracking race over 2200m and will be looking for some each way Stimulation

Good racing tomorrow - has a quick look, nothing solid in the G1 races as too many questions from the last runs.,,

R1 - Sprint Forward/Yichun Blitz
R2 - Bright Vision
R3 - Judys Star/Stock Legend
R4 - Cheerful Leader - win
R5 - HKP
R6 - Beauty Smile/ Toycoon - fav probably too good
R7 - Waikuku
R8 - Time Warp to get easy lead Purton probably won’t let him get too far ahead this time
R9 - Gold Chest - win
R10 - Hezthewonforus - each way

R4 probably my best bet.