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elisjohn
06 Oct 19 16:24
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 15,510 | Blogger: elisjohn's blog
looking forward to next years race, ok we havent a clue to the three year old yet, but sottsass is a horse that must be in the reckoning, coolmore imo will  keep japan in training , and todays winner must enter calculations if running, enable surely will be retired, and cant think of this years 3 year olds that can step up to this class unless massive improvement, crystal ocean retired,i would have liked to see deirdrie running today reckon was a fab e/w bet, anyway this years race was won and the 2nd were in the 1st 4 last year, therefore im going for the 2020 running  with japan and sottsass , stronger horses and better ground and more runners would suit the latter.Come on betfair open a market.   Ok one longshot of next years 3 year olds for this, victor ludorum
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Report Figgis October 4, 2020 1:23 PM BST
Unless that first winner is some kind of world beater (highly doubtful) that time says no worse than soft ground and a lot better than even yesterday's early races.
Report harry callaghan October 4, 2020 1:25 PM BST
Yes I agree she has her chance I’ve just never had a sheckle on her so won’t be going to the funeral, although I do feel this is an extremely weak field..so won’t be offering excuses if she gets it done but I wouldn’t be a layer as just don’t feel I have much running for me. A desperate affair for an arc imo just lacking any decent 3 year olds although rabihah was certainly given a trail last time but hard to imagine she will love this ground
Report harry callaghan October 4, 2020 1:31 PM BST
Yes ground doesn’t look desperate to me which is good news
Report A_T October 4, 2020 1:41 PM BST
the Lagardere comparitively much faster than last year's event over a mile. Arc ground could even be better than last year.
Report harry callaghan October 4, 2020 1:42 PM BST
I’m with you with Persian king I’d make him favourite if it wasn’t the distance..I just hope he rides him Prominently and doesn’t strangle him as you could be clear if allowed to stride out...for me he is the top class horse in the race bar the mare and the stayer I make Sottsass 3rd best in front of strad
Report Figgis October 4, 2020 1:47 PM BST
Harry, actually I have it the same. Persian King clear best but doesn't matter how good you are if you don't stay, Enable (on her best form) next best then Sottsass ahead of Stradivarius. Not sure if Sottsass will follow up that latest best form but if he does he shouldn't be far away.
Report Millerracing67 October 4, 2020 1:51 PM BST
The heart wants Enable to make more history (& a few £££)
If she is to lose? I hope it's the Fr 3yo filly Raahbiha ( some ante p small plays at big odds)
Also a few plays today: Raahbiha without the fav, & to finish in the 4.
As long as One of these girls win I'll be happy.
Gd luck with your bets lads.
Report A_T October 4, 2020 1:57 PM BST
Harry, actually I have it the same. Persian King clear best but doesn't matter how good you are if you don't stay,

maybe they should have run Battaash then they could say best horse just didn't stay
Report Figgis October 4, 2020 2:00 PM BST
Harry, taking last year's from into account I'd actually have Deidre third best with her allowance, but as a 6yo she hasn't hit that mark this season and was well below par last time. Not one I'd back but I can see why some would make a case for her at a big price.
Report Figgis October 4, 2020 2:02 PM BST
maybe they should have run Battaash then they could say best horse just didn't stay

You think PK has as much chance of staying as Battaash would? That Fabre really must be a clown then Wink
Report Charlton2005 October 4, 2020 2:11 PM BST
Figgis, gl today. I am with you. PK to win and Deidre to run into 4th.

small cover on stradivarius
Report harry callaghan October 4, 2020 2:12 PM BST
Yeah on her best form deidre could run ok always thought she liked it on top but she hasn’t turned up this season. The only rag I see running ok is gold trip but he has an awful lot to find
Report Figgis October 4, 2020 2:29 PM BST
Charlton, I see it as a Desert Orchid type situation. The fastest horse in the race but all the experts saying he can't possibly stay. Unfortunately it was early days for me and I bowed to the so called experts and had only a very minor bet on DO. Let's hope we get the same result but I win a bit more cash this time Wink
Report FELTFAIR October 4, 2020 2:30 PM BST
Sorry Harry a bit late but just returned from the National Stud coffee shop following some brunch and noticed your post.

Yes ancient, though young at heart and everything still works although somewhat slower than yesteryear.
Report penzance October 4, 2020 2:49 PM BST
2 runs ago I backed Persian King,@1M(Hvy),he was hammererd.
When he won lto Pinatubo was making ground up from miles
back.GL to his backers but I would be very surprised if this
wins this today on the ground and the trip.
Report Sandown October 4, 2020 2:51 PM BST
I think that the distance of the 7f race is actually shorter than advertised and taking the 8f race into account I can't see that the ground is any worse than soft. certainly not a bog. However, it is softer than last year. Gosden hasn't exuded great  confidence in Enable and I think that he considers Stradivarius maybe can beat her.I think she is a rotten price but I am not laying her.

Every horse in the race has negatives for me but the one I am going  with has just the one negative which is on form as measured in collateral ratings he has to improve quite a bit to win even an average Arc.. That horse is In Swoop

I've had a shot at rating him on time in the German Derby and whilst I'm not uber confident, the time standard I have used was supported yesterday by how Half Light ran. On an allowance using that horse I can upgrade In Swoop to a 123 rating which puts him in with a shout.He has soft ground form, (ran well on firm last time) will improve for the run and a faster pace. He may not get a run if he is caught on the rail from his no 1 draw but at the prices he is worth an each way bet.
Report FOYLESWAR October 4, 2020 2:58 PM BST
had cashed out on most of my raahibah bets but had to have another go at 12s each way.
Report FOYLESWAR October 4, 2020 3:11 PM BST
oh my god ..................had it right off !
Report elisjohn October 4, 2020 3:11 PM BST
looking forward to next years race, ok we havent a clue to the three year old yet, but sottsass is a horse that must be in the reckoning, coolmore imo will  keep japan in training , and todays winner must enter calculations if running, enable surely will be retired, and cant think of this years 3 year olds that can step up to this class unless massive improvement, crystal ocean retired,i would have liked to see deirdrie running today reckon was a fab e/w bet, anyway this years race was won and the 2nd were in the 1st 4 last year, therefore im going for the 2020 running  with japan and sottsass , stronger horses and better ground and more runners would suit the latter.Come on betfair open a market.   Ok one longshot of next years 3 year olds for this, victor ludorum

and then i decided sottsass wouldnt stayLaughCryCryCryCry
Report penzance October 4, 2020 3:12 PM BST
Sottsass,get in there.
Report impossible123 October 4, 2020 3:12 PM BST
A consolation for messing up the Derby and Leger; Sottsass finally atoned.
Report pug munter October 4, 2020 3:12 PM BST
"I have layed as much as my bank allows, I have topped up numerous times just to lay Sottsass, I have and will never again have such a big liability. Chaps I urge you to cash everything in and lay Sottsass, never look back, potentially life changing chance here. Sottsass will not win"


CrazyCrazyCrazy
Report A_T October 4, 2020 3:13 PM BST
slowest time for decades - not just the ground either. typical French race with the Brits caught flat-footed
Report EastLower Gooner October 4, 2020 3:18 PM BST
Wd Sottsass backers....I know some of you have been fans of him since last year.
Report elisjohn October 4, 2020 3:21 PM BST
yes well done winners
Report Figgis October 4, 2020 3:22 PM BST
Well done Harry, and other Sottsass backers. Unlucky Sandown, not sure if the slow pace made any difference to your horses chances. A moderate renewal but I think the best horse on the day won.
Report ReaseHeath October 4, 2020 3:23 PM BST
No bet - but to me it's criminal that Team Gosden allowed the race to pan out like that - I know the ground is a consideration but surely Stradivarius should've made sure it was run at a true gallop.
Superb ride by PCB on Persian King, maximised that one's finishing position.

People can say what they like about Coolmore (and I do!) but they would've made sure it was a true test...
Report FELTFAIR October 4, 2020 3:26 PM BST
The bed sheets remain in place.
Report Sandown October 4, 2020 3:27 PM BST
Best horse won.No excuses for In Swoop who ran well. Maybe a faster pace and even softer ground might have made a difference but he had every chance.
Report FOYLESWAR October 4, 2020 3:28 PM BST
get innnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn ,phew stewards made me sweat ! well done penzance and other winners
Report Figgis October 4, 2020 3:28 PM BST
Taking the slow pace into account and the earlier races the ground definitely wasn't this bottomless swamp that Dettori is trying to make out. Although I suppose it feels like that when you're on a horse that isn't firing.
Report A_T October 4, 2020 3:31 PM BST
would have been a totally different result with the Ballydoyle runners but c'est la vie

Gold Trip caesed carnage and should have been thrown out
Report penzance October 4, 2020 3:31 PM BST
cheers Foyles
   wd
   GL
Report Figgis October 4, 2020 3:33 PM BST
would have been a totally different result with the Ballydoyle runners

I'd certainly have expected a faster pace but a totally different result?
Report A_T October 4, 2020 3:42 PM BST
I'd certainly have expected a faster pace but a totally different result?


I think so

slowest time in decades - a Ballydoyle frontrunner would have seen a much faster pace - the race was reduced to a scramble in the straight with Gold Trip causing havoc - 2 lengths covered the first 4 I don't see any of them winning at G1 level again

awful race

not for the first time the Arc makes a nonsense of all previous form
Report harry callaghan October 4, 2020 3:44 PM BST
Something totally aside but why didn’t he gun that Persian king...I realise people will argue he doesn’t stay but imo he failed to use his speed he would of had them all in trouble along way out...I suppose I read to much Andy beyer but I believe he should of gunned that horse and used him...he didn’t so we will never know but his class would of had carried him a huge way and had them all in trouble, if he had used him..he didn’t have the bottle boudot to do it the theory was certainly there
Report A_T October 4, 2020 3:49 PM BST
PK is a mile not a 12f horse - he only finished so close because the pace was slow - go faster and he's beaten even further
Report harry callaghan October 4, 2020 3:57 PM BST
I think you are wrong AT
Report penzance October 4, 2020 3:58 PM BST
8.30 this morning you was in praise of the
racing gods.After the result you wanted a
Ballydoyle front runner in the race.
Report harry callaghan October 4, 2020 3:59 PM BST
He nullified his class edge by going slow...anyway you are entitled to your wrong opinion
Report Figgis October 4, 2020 3:59 PM BST
Watching the race, I think the only runner that a case could possibly be made for in a faster race was the second. If the others were beaten due to a slow pace then you'd expect them to be staying on after the nippier runners quickened. The front two were the only two still going forwards. Everything else with even a remote chance was going backwards, apart from Raabihah, who was only staying on past horses who had already shot their bolt.
Report A_T October 4, 2020 4:00 PM BST
PK is a Group 1 miler - why did Sotsass and In Swoop have the speed to pass him  - because he was tired - trip was too far

Fabre won't be running him over 12f again
Report harry callaghan October 4, 2020 4:08 PM BST
My point is a class point of view but you don’t see it so it’s a waste of time
Report A_T October 4, 2020 4:12 PM BST
class doesn't matter if you don't stay the trip - otherwise every 3yo colt would run in the Derby - PK nearly stole the race the pace was so slow - full marks to his jockey who achieved the best possible placing IMO
Report FOYLESWAR October 4, 2020 4:13 PM BST
lads its history now no point chewin over what would have what might have if buts maybees  move on to the next opportunity.
Report FELTFAIR October 4, 2020 4:18 PM BST
So what did you actually back A_T?
Report harry callaghan October 4, 2020 4:20 PM BST
Ask yourself the question if he had of gone a proper group 1 pace for 1m1f for instants against these horses what would of happened...I can tell you what would happen they would all be ridden along, he nullified his class by going slow...if he were a complete non stayer how comes he clugged on for 3rd...if we use your surmising he would of pulled like a pig for a mile and finished out the back of the telly
Report San Quentin October 4, 2020 4:42 PM BST
Oh my that didn't go to plan.
Report jedi sophie October 4, 2020 4:46 PM BST
Oh dear San.....
Report jedi sophie October 4, 2020 4:47 PM BST
Decent result here,panned out as thought,slow,awkward,just assumed enable be there in front of Sottsass..

Peslier terrible ride Strad

Shame for her.Enable,hope she's well.
Report jedi sophie October 4, 2020 4:48 PM BST
Best horse won.......imo.
Report Charlton2005 October 4, 2020 4:51 PM BST
San Quentin
04 Oct 20 16:42
Joined: 31 May 03 | Topic/replies: 1,909 | Blogger: San Quentin's blog
Oh my that didn't go to plan.


can you explain the plan? you did say you would enlighten us.
Report FOYLESWAR October 4, 2020 4:51 PM BST
bad luck san hope you were joshing !
Report penzance October 4, 2020 4:54 PM BST
At least he has'nt left the forum.
Report Figgis October 4, 2020 4:57 PM BST
Question now is, would Love have beaten that lot with or without the aid of a GEN nosebag? Wink
Report harry callaghan October 4, 2020 5:05 PM BST
Depends if she had the feed figgisLaugh
Report A_T October 4, 2020 5:15 PM BST
So what did you actually back A_T?

Sotsass, Raabihah and In Swoop - all to win. But I really wanted Enable to win for Britain so the result gave me no pleasure at all. Team Gosden got it badly wrong today - allowing the race to be a crawl when they had horses with proven stamina - the race should have been at least 5 secs faster. Dettori seemed to blame the ground because that's the excuse that gets him off the hook for a poor ride - he misjudged the pace.
Report Figgis October 4, 2020 5:21 PM BST
A-T, she was going backwards at the finish. I know horses can get beat due to lack of pace but not by 6 lengths+. A distance that would've increased the further they went, and the same goes for Stradivarius. Whether anyone thinks he should've been ridden differently or not, he clearly wasn't going today.
Report A_T October 4, 2020 5:34 PM BST
Yes Enable wasn't at her best today - no flat horse has ever been able to show it's best every time for 5 seasons - something has to give at some point. She wasn't helped by inteference from Gold Trip, lost momentum and didn't pick up again - her stamins didn't come into play because it was really onyl a 10 furlong race at best. She can rest now and she's earned her meeting with Kingman in a few months Happy

But In Swoop and Gold Trip. They are no champions. These horses won't be winning King Georges, Breeders Cups, Arcs, etc. in the future.

The Arc is a funny race - lots of contenders have left their best form behind them - ans some peak on the day never to be seen again - for every Golden Horn or Sea The Stars there is a Solemina or Sotsass.
Report Figgis October 4, 2020 5:37 PM BST
And Gold Trip came from even further back and left them both for dead. No there was no excuse for Enable today. She was beaten too far and too easily for it to be either the ground (which wasn't as bad as predicted) or the lack of pace. Taking nothing away from her past achievements, she just wasn't in the same form today. She might've had a better chance if they'd ignored all the summer options and just given her the Kempton prep, but then it's still possible she just wouldn't have peaked at the right time. It was never going to be just a penalty kick getting her ready to win 3 Arcs but well done to them for giving it a go.
Report Figgis October 4, 2020 5:46 PM BST
Enable had a pretty hard race in the Eclipse to bring her on and then even though she won the KG easily she recorded a pretty good comparative time, in my opinion it was very close to the effort she put up when winning last year, even though that appeared to be hard fought. Fast races usually take something out of a horse even when they win by daylight. I'd say she had an easier season than last year but at the age of 6 it's usually more difficult to keep them at level. Anyway, all easier with hindsight and of course she still may have lost if she'd been kept for today.
Report A_T October 4, 2020 5:46 PM BST
Question now is, would Love have beaten that lot with or without the aid of a GEN nosebag?

At least Ballydoyle's extraordinary success makes a lot more sense now.
Report Figgis October 4, 2020 5:46 PM BST
*at that level
Report MR BLONDE October 4, 2020 5:56 PM BST
San Quentin....

What a horse racing judge...... lmfao
Report San Quentin October 4, 2020 7:07 PM BST
Mr B have you made that opinion on 1 race, have you hacked my account? Do you ever lose? or perhaps all you bets result in + inpact on your account. Be honest Mr B. Lol
Report Pleasegivemeanailedontip October 4, 2020 7:13 PM BST
To be fair to Frankie, Enable (and oddly Gold Trip) looked like they were ploughing up the course as they went over it while the others didnt seem to so much
Report FOYLESWAR October 4, 2020 8:06 PM BST
think what  lot didnt take on board  is the run behind magical and the then  129 rated ghayiath at leopardstown over a trip too short which was effectivly  a prep for this btn under 3l giving 3 pound to the winner and 1 1/4 lenghts to the then rated best horse in europe  over a trip which suited the winner and 2nd ,sottsas was under the cosh a good 3 out and cutting them down at the finish  which indicated  he would be better for the race. the proximity of armoury in 3rd had some saying if he cant beat a rag he wont win an arc but as said the irish race was a prep .
Report brigust1 October 4, 2020 8:23 PM BST
I'm not sure Frankie made the right choice holding her up when the pace was clearly going to be slow after the start. I think it was a lazy decision. I've never had a problem with her on soft ground and I have never had a problem with her getting the trip I just think their mindset before the race may have been negative. I know from experience the best way to get a horse beaten that doesn't act on the ground is to go slowly because they aren't going over it they are going into it and then when they are asked to quicken they cannot get the purchase. AOB summed it up once by saying they cannot get the traction.
Frankie should have ignored the front runner and gone on. She may have been beaten, I am not saying he would have won, but she would not have been beaten by many maybe even only one or two.
Report sykes10 October 4, 2020 8:31 PM BST
well done sottsass backers,how many horses have come back and won after they were beaten in the race the previous year?
Report FELTFAIR October 4, 2020 8:39 PM BST
Waldgeist.
Report penzance October 4, 2020 8:44 PM BST
3 in the last 5
Found, Waldgeist
and todays winner.Think Allez France may have
done it aswell.
Report penzance October 4, 2020 8:47 PM BST
Rainbow Quest did but he did win
on a DSQ
Report impossible123 October 4, 2020 8:54 PM BST
I think whichever way Enable had been ridden the result would have been the same. She clearly is not the same horse since last year's renewal.
Report Charlton2005 October 4, 2020 8:55 PM BST
sykes10
04 Oct 20 20:31
Joined: 11 Nov 06 | Topic/replies: 101 | Blogger: sykes10's blog
well done sottsass backers,how many horses have come back and won after they were beaten in the race the previous year?
Rate reply:


think the stat i have seen was none, except if they were 2nd/3rd/4th previously
Report FOYLESWAR October 4, 2020 8:56 PM BST
true brigust but he supposedly went too soon last year you can imagine the flak he would have aimed at him if he went on very early and was beaten.
Report brigust1 October 4, 2020 9:03 PM BST
I am not talking about quickening, Foyles, that can take it out of them quickly, I think if she had just gone a good gallop, at her pace, she would have seen off a lot them. It is when you ask them to quicken, some can but not all, on that type of ground.
Report FOYLESWAR October 4, 2020 9:20 PM BST
we will never know brig ,j gosden had enough doubts beforehand and said it was a huge ask for her and she was too short in the betting for the task.
Report brigust1 October 4, 2020 10:16 PM BST
I am not sure she would have won, I never backed her, I just think he lessened her chances and probably looked after her. If he thought she wasn't going to win why give her a hard race.
Report Sandown October 5, 2020 1:19 PM BST
The slowest run Arc since 88 & 87 (Tony Bin  & Trempolino) which suited those on the pace such as the winner. It was especially slow early on and the sprint for home didn't suit strong stayers like In Swoop who nevertheless showed improved form whereas Sottsass can't be rated any higher than it's previous best.The ground didn't result in going allowances like that for Solemia's year although clearly it didn't suit Enable or Stradivarious. If Mogul handles this type of ground (unknown) then he must have gone close if he had run. Persian King vindicated Fabre's decision to run him although in a fast run 12f race  I can't see him repeating the form. 10f looks the perfect trip for him. Not one of the best Arc's but still a great race.
Report penzance October 5, 2020 1:57 PM BST
from memory I thought Trempolino when he won
rboke the Arc or even course record.?
Report penzance October 5, 2020 1:58 PM BST
he also came from last more or less.
Report Figgis October 5, 2020 2:15 PM BST
The idea is to pick the best horse on the day, not the best horse in the race. Sottsass was clearly that and well done to those who backed him. Not the winner's fault that they didn't go a faster pace, but regardless of the poor time I would say it was still probably just about the worst standard that I can remember. As Sandown says, the winner didn't improve on his previous best. As I said earlier on the thread, his run behind Magical was his best run to that point and wasn't a bad standard, but Ghaiyyath was definitely below par that day and I'd argue even Magical has run better. So it's a bit disappointing (to anyone but his backers) that that level proved good enough to win an Arc, but, as A_T said, it can often be a funny race with its position in the calendar, when a few of the classy horses have gone over the top. Also this year's events leading up to the race being stranger than most.
Report Figgis October 5, 2020 2:44 PM BST
Actually, looking back through the winners I was being unfair about this year's race. I can see during the 80s and 90s there were a few of a similar level and even a bit worse. I would say it was just about the worst level this century, but can't expect a great race every year.
Report Sandown October 5, 2020 2:47 PM BST
To expand on my last post, the pace shape of this year's race most resembles that of Tony Bin's in 1988 and the ground that year was on the soft side but not as soft as yesterday. The reference to Trempolino was that the early part of that race was as slow as yesterday (after going allowance) but it was on firmish ground so in actual times it was therefore faster. Maybe it dosn't illuminate the analysis but slow early pace races occur irrespective of the ground but with similar effects on outcomes. Trempolino did finish fast but in terms of pace profile and going allowance, Tony Bin fished faster. Confusing, isn't it?
Report penzance October 5, 2020 3:33 PM BST
yes I do know races are run differently,early pace ,slow pace
and even gallop etc.
I personally aint' into times,some swear by them,that's what
they do.Good luck to them.
I also know some rate horses on times better than horses that
have beaten them by the way the race has been run.As to your
remark ,confusing,is'nt?,no it is'nt and I find that very
patronising.
Report San Quentin October 5, 2020 3:38 PM BST
Ah Tony Bin, my first ever arc, yesterday only 2nd one I have missed since. Hope to be back next year.
Report EastLower Gooner October 5, 2020 4:22 PM BST
Did anyone know Coolmore had a stake in Sottsass?

They always win imo
Report Sandown October 5, 2020 7:04 PM BST
Nothing I wrote was aimed at anyone personally. I said "confusing" because making  comparisons showing that a fast time can be "slower" when a going allowance is used, is confusing. So try to be less prickly penzance. Your comment is the kind of thing that keeps me away from the forum these days because it is so unnecessary.
Report impossible123 October 5, 2020 7:14 PM BST
Blame it on Covid.
Report jedi sophie October 5, 2020 7:18 PM BST
Grow up boys, difference of opinion is actually what makes Betfair so successful.ExcitedLaughHappy
Report kincsem October 6, 2020 10:47 AM BST
sykes10
well done sottsass backers,how many horses have come back and won after they were beaten in the race the previous year?

Plenty... 12, and I may have missed a few
PlainCorrida was 3rd, then 1st, 1st.
Motrico was 4th, then 1st, 1st.
Massine was 2nd, 1st
Djebel was 3rd, 1st
Nuccio was 2nd, 1st
Oroso was 6th, 1st
Exbury was 6th, 1st
Allez France was 2nd, 1st
Ivanjica was 12th, 1st
All Along was 15th, 1st
Sagace was 11th, 1st
Tony Bin was 2nd, 1st
Report kincsem October 6, 2020 11:00 AM BST
That was only a review up to 2015
You can add these
Found 9th, 1st
Waldgeist 4th, 1st
Sottsass 3rd, 1st

I think that is 16 horses beaten in the Arc who later won it
or just about every horses that ran in it again Laugh

Stats quoted (invented) by people who do not look up the info are not much use.
Report Sandown October 6, 2020 11:50 AM BST
I think that is 16 horses beaten in the Arc who later won it
or just about every horses that ran in it again



Seriously impressive stats kincem. Thank you for digging those out. I would have given Sottsass a better chance than I did if I had known. Those figures are a must for future races. They suggest that the trainers involved learned something the first time round and put it right.
Report FOYLESWAR October 6, 2020 12:38 PM BST
as said the irish champion stakes  was a serious run form sottsas less than 3l behind magical and ghayiaath ,2 top class horses at that trip  ,also last year in the arc sottsass came there at the furlong pole and to some (me among them) thought he didnt stay when enable  quickened and waldgeist stayed on . but after watching the race back several times japan who was staying on couldnt get past sottsass who actually kept on strongly that convinced me he would stay and the slower pace certainly helped . although i had a very decent bet on the winner (my biggest ever ) i dropped a bollack by holding back when he went under 20s .
Report Figgis October 6, 2020 12:52 PM BST
That's kind of ignoring all the ones who tried again and failed though, such as Magical, Way To Paris, Order Of St George, Capri, Cloth Of Stars, New Bay, Dolniya just from 2015. I think just like most stats, poor criteria compared to form going into a race.
Report kincsem October 6, 2020 2:10 PM BST
Just to cheer everyone up.
I put my predictions on boards.ie, 1st place down to last place.
My prediction 1st Sottsass, 2nd In Swoop.
And I did the obvious - Euro 200 on In Swoop at 12s+ Laugh
Report kincsem October 6, 2020 2:27 PM BST
This was one of my posts on boards.ie.

I keep an Excel file of the draw in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp, all finishers from 1971 to 2019 (47 years, 1982 missing).
On fast ground a low draw is favoured. On soft/heavy the draw is less important.
I banded the 47 years into fast (14 races), good (16 races), slow ground (17 races).
Average draw of fast ground winners (5.5/16.3 starters), good (8.1/18.2 starters), slow (10.4/18.0 starters).

This morning I added another column: age of the winner.
Average age of fast ground winners (3.35), good (3.44), slow (3.71).
Number of wins age 3,4,5: fast (11,1,2), good (10,5,1), slow (6,10,1)
3yos do best on fast ground. 4yos do best on slow ground (even though they carry more weight).
Winners fast (4yo: Treve; 5yo: Marienbard; Tony Bin)
Winners good (5yo: Waldgeist)
Winners slow (3yo: Treve; Dalakhani; Sagamix; Workforce; All Along; Montjeu)

The 2019 race won by Waldgeist was 30th fastest of the 47 races indicating the ground was not as slow as many thought.
Report kincsem October 6, 2020 3:42 PM BST
Figgis
That's kind of ignoring all the ones who tried again and failed though, such as Magical, Way To Paris, Order Of St George, Capri, Cloth Of Stars, New Bay, Dolniya just from 2015. I think just like most stats, poor criteria compared to form going into a race.

If you could restate that post clearly I will respond.
The horses you mention did not all run in 2015.
In 5 out of 7 cases they were beaten by horses who were repeating their 3yo win as a 4yo, or were beaten by horses who had been beaten as 3yo but were now winning as 4yo.
From 1920 to 2014 (93 races) 712 4yo or older ran; 859 3yo.
There could only be 93 winners.
39 winners as 4yo or older: 15 lost as 3yo and won as 4yo.
Report Figgis October 6, 2020 4:14 PM BST
I meant Arcs just from 2015 onward, as you had said the first review was only up to 2015.

In 5 out of 7 cases they were beaten by horses who were repeating their 3yo win as a 4yo, or were beaten by horses who had been beaten as 3yo but were now winning as 4yo

It doesn't matter what types those 5 were beaten by as none of them even finished second on their next Arc attempts, they were all beaten by other horses regardless of the winner.

I backed a non stayer in this year's Arc so I claim no victory (although he was fair odds early on for a place). But for anyone who thought Enable was worth taking on and was positive Persian King wouldn't stay, Sottsass had the next best form in the book. Stradivarius was so short because some people were convinced it was going to be a swamp, but I doubt too many people would've expected Stradivarius to get as close to Magical as Sottsass had. It was this year's form that gave the greatest clue to Sottsass' chances, not that he ran in the race last year.
Report FOYLESWAR October 6, 2020 4:16 PM BST
kincem bad luck in backing in swoop and not sottsass ,always the way the one you dont do will always bite you on the ar$e , a few weeks ago i put a ante post each way double in a william hillss shop and used one of those bet machines for the 1st time ,couldnt work the machine and asked the woman / manager to do it for me told her lisnagar oscar and saint roi £25 each way double when she gave me the slip it had lisnagar oscar and saldier double .............thought about changing it back to saint roi but you know what would have happened so went home got another £50 and made sure she got it right lisnagar and saint roi .
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