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05 Oct 19 15:34
Date Joined: 20 Sep 11
| Topic/replies: 3,549 | Blogger: John.W.Henry.'s blog

2yo(06May17 b c)
TrainerRalph Beckett (Last 14 days: 8-40, 20%)
OwnerJ H Richmond-Watson
SireKingman (GB) (8.7f)
DamCeilidh House (GB)
Dam's SireSelkirk (USA) (9.2f)
BreederLawn Stud

4.00. Newmarket 5th Oct 2019. Weatherbys Design And Print Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race)
7f, Class 4, £5,175.20
Going: Good To Soft

1st KINROSS.  SP. 3/1. 15 ran Distances: 8l, 3¼l, nk Time: 1m 26.02s (slow by 3.72s)

As debuts go that was about as impressive as it gets
Pause Switch to Standard View KINROSS. Explosive.
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Report John.W.Henry. October 5, 2019 4:41 PM BST
Put in at 33s for the 2000 G with Hills. Tempting
Report John.W.Henry. October 8, 2019 11:23 AM BST
Looks as if Timeform were impressed as well Wink
Report duncan idaho October 8, 2019 1:31 PM BST
like Father, like Son...had obv been showing them a lot at home...more likely to make a Grp 1-2 horse than not imo
Report unclepuncle October 8, 2019 6:03 PM BST
Was super impressive but having been bitten by Dancing Vega last year I am twice shy on this one.
Report penzance October 8, 2019 6:14 PM BST
does anyone agree that if trained by
Gosden,Obrien etc,would be a fair
bit shorter in the quote?
Report John.W.Henry. October 14, 2019 2:22 PM BST
Trainer Ralph Beckett has earmarked Newbury as the next port of call for impressive debut winner Kinross.

The son of Kingman is being readied for the seven-furlong Group Three prize on Saturday week, which Beckett claimed with Pleaseletmewin in 2016, after bolting up by eight lengths on his debut at Newmarket earlier this month.

Following his Rowley Mile triumph, Kinross is as low as 20-1 for next year's Qipco 2000 Guineas.

Beckett said: "Kinross is in great shape and he will probably go to the Horris Hill. That is the idea, all being well.

"He came to the table late in terms of his work at home, purely because he was a May foal.

"His starting price indicated it wasn't a surprise as not many of mine go off 3-1 for a Newmarket maiden on debut.

"There is plenty of stamina on the dam's side, but I suspect he will be more of a mile to mile-and-a-quarter horse."
Report John.W.Henry. October 28, 2019 12:31 PM GMT
Andy Holding | 10:57 Thursday 24th October 2019
Our racing expert says take the early price on Ralph Beckett's inmate.

As far as this season goes, Pinatubo has been by a country mile the standout juvenile in this division and he currently rates a worthy favourite for next year’s opening classic after a series of breath-taking performances. We first caught glimpse of the future when he scooted up at Wolverhampton on his debut and that was backed up by his victory in the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom at month later. Impressive in the Chesham at Royal Ascot, Charlie Appleby’s colt then produced a real ‘wow factor’ moment in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood when, off the back of very strong fractions, he simply left his useful rivals for dead with a tremendous turn of foot. The son of Shamardal produced a cut-and-paste display in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh on his next start and although he wasn’t as devastating in the Dewhurst on his final outing of the campaign, like all good Premier League-winning teams, at least it proved he could grind out a result when not as his best. Setting sail for the winter with an even higher rating than the mighty Frankel at this stage of his career (128 compared to 123), the unbeaten colt is odds-on in some places to confirm his superiority as a three-year-old and providing he trains on and can deliver a similar levels of brilliance, then the rest may as well not turn up. Or is it as simple as that?

Having trained 10 winners of the colt’s mile classic, Aidan O’Brien is bound to have some sort of say, and although he may not have the superstars in his ranks than in previous seasons, some of the ones we’ve seen may be open to a good deal of improvement once they are more physically developed. This weekend’s Futurity was a springboard for both Magna Grecia and Saxon Warrior in recent times, so, with what looks like a total monopoly of this year’s renewal, the result of that Group 1-mile contest at Doncaster has to be taken very seriously, while the likes of Arizona and Wichita, will be hoping that on better ground, they might be able to bridge the gap with their Dewhurst conqueror.

Earthlight is the other youngster who has showed a high level of form in his unbeaten run and he has to be of some interest despite slight fears that distances short of a mile might end up being his optimum. His game victory over a stellar field in the Middle Park supplemented his previous success in the Prix De Morny on home soil, and it also proved his adaptability regards underfoot conditions. Yet to race beyond six-furlongs, Andre Fabre’s colt is also owned by Godolphin, so whether connections would want to be putting both their eggs in one basket come the spring is very much open to question and it might well be that this likeable type ends up either in the French equivalent or, if he doesn’t fit the stamina criteria in an early trial, he reverts to sprinting and becomes their number one Commonwealth Cup horse.

Looking at the role of honour for the 2000 Guineas, it’s not inconceivable that a smaller stable can produce the winner if they have the right ammunition – Galileo Gold, Makfi and Cockney Rebel just a few examples – and if there is to be one from this category heading into next season with a bigger chance than the current market implies, it may turn out to be KINROSS (best price 25-1).

Well-touted before his debut at Newmarket on October 5, Ralph Beckett’s inmate produced a display of the utmost class and he not only clocked a very fast time at the first time of asking, his backend sectionals also suggested we are dealing with an above-average two-year-old. Having arrived at the two pole travelling easily, the son of Kingman quickened up in spectacular fashion to leave his 14 rivals for dead and even though he was by no means hard driven to the line, he still scored by an impressive eight lengths. The interesting feature of that performance is that he managed to run the last three-furlongs a second quicker (roughly five lengths) than Group 1 older filly Billesdon Brook and even more significantly, he was also far superior in every department than the other two juvenile races on the card won by Under The Stars and White Moonlight, which is probably a better guide to his achievements. Knowing these figures were so good, it was lovely to see the runner-up at HQ, Raaeb, dot up in a Kempton novice event subsequently and considering the rest were strung out like Monday morning washing, there’s no reason to doubt the validity of the form. Due to have one more run in the Cancom Stakes at Newbury this weekend (formerly The Horris Hill), connections are clearly seeking to find out whether they have a live Guineas candidate on their hands, while at the same time, give their colt some more valuable experience which will hopefully stand him in good stead for next season. Whether he’s the type to be slogging his way through slow Autumn ground on just his second career start is a moot point, but either way, he will hopefully have enough class to pull through. Sure to be better suited by more traditional Flat racing ground in time, however, this potentially smart, easy-moving colt has all the right attributes to become a top-class performer in time and at 25-1, ( in places ) he arguably represents the only slice of value left on the table looking at the ante-post lists for next year’s Guineas.

2000 Guineas
1pt E/W
Report FOYLESWAR October 29, 2019 8:41 AM GMT
hopefully he will go for the futurity on friday
Report FOYLESWAR October 29, 2019 8:41 AM GMT
it would spice that race up and stop the ballydoyle whitewash
Report John.W.Henry. October 29, 2019 9:31 AM GMT
Beckett did say post race that the horse ideally wants good fast ground and that softish ground isnt really ideal but he needed to get him on the track and will look to do so again b4 season end as he needs the experience.

Vey interesting prospect
Report FOYLESWAR October 29, 2019 1:54 PM GMT
6/1 on sportsbook earlier this marning
Report FOYLESWAR October 30, 2019 8:50 PM GMT
form franked by the 2nd raaeb who won at kempton with a 7 pound penalty ,16s guineas looks very fair to me  and i am taking some ,pinatubo looks a way above average 2 yo but will he make a 3 yo ?
Report FOYLESWAR October 30, 2019 9:36 PM GMT
16s kinross ^^^
Report John.W.Henry. October 31, 2019 6:55 AM GMT
Vatican City was probably the other horse to take away from the Newmarket romp of Kinross as he looked to have a quiet run that day and he subsequently bolted up last night at fundalk. Although he was 2s on tbf.

We will learn much more tomorrow about Kinross.
Report John.W.Henry. October 31, 2019 8:32 AM GMT
Sectional spotlight... Simon Rowlands ...

So, what difference will it make that the final British Group 1 of the year will be run here rather than down the A1 at Doncaster? For those still not familiar with the nuances of Newcastle, here is a quick rundown.

Whereas Doncaster’s straight mile is almost entirely level, Newcastle’s rises steadily, by a total of about 26 feet over its length according to Google Earth.

In addition, the Tapeta surface at Newcastle tends to ride quite testing, at least according to Timeform, who categorised the going at the track as “slow” at 81% of this year’s race meetings.

My own figures are a bit less extreme, but it could certainly be argued that the last five meetings at Newcastle have taken place on either “slow” or “standard to slow” in reality.

The uphill finish and demanding surface means that horses run nearly a length per furlong slower late on at Newcastle than at Doncaster in order to achieve a comparable standardised time.

Stamina is unlikely to be at as much of a premium on Friday as it would have been in the mud at Doncaster, but it should still count for plenty. Which is how it should be for a race founded (as the Timeform Gold Cup) with a view to ensuring that good staying juveniles had sufficient opportunity.

Twelve two-year-olds have stood their ground, and there is nothing in it on my figures between Innisfree, Kinross and Mogul on 109, with Kameko and Tammani snapping at their heels on 107.

Mogul is, at odds on, far too short to my mind for a horse who has not yet run a good time, and my money will be divided between Kinross and Innisfree.

Kinross’s claims are based on one run and win, at Newmarket, in which he posted a time 1.42s quicker than the useful three-year-old Dutch Treat later on the card as well as some impressive sectionals in beating a colt who has won well since.

Innisfree has been a slower burner, but his last-time defeat of Shekhem in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at the Curragh seems to have been under-assessed in some quarters due to an overall time which was slower than other mile ones on the same card because it took place on a separate part of the track and almost certainly over further.

Whatever the outcome, we have a terrific race in store and a bit of history being made at 6pm on Friday, live on Sky Sports Racing.
Report Howellsy October 31, 2019 8:17 PM GMT
Kinross could be anything and might well turn out to be the best horse of his generation. Perhaps his sectionals on debut were top class. But as an overall time, it was nothing special on my figures. And whatever anyone says about collateral form, we have little idea how good a piece of form that is. Of course, I accept that few Newmarket maidens have been won by those sort of distances by plodders. But I'll be interested to see how short he gets tomorrow. Lots of variables here.
Report John.W.Henry. November 4, 2019 9:03 AM GMT
Disappointing effort at Newcastle. Perhaps that is as good as he is ?  In behind a wall of 108 + horses and in front of a few that disappointed as well. Bubble pricked if not burst completely but not the superstar he looked on debut.
Report cryoftruth February 25, 2020 1:13 AM GMT
I do not think anyone should give up on Kinross just yet.
Report John.W.Henry. February 25, 2020 12:39 PM GMT
Not given up here. Happy to give him another shout when he hits the turf again.

That initial performance at Newmarket was breathtaking Wink
Report acey deucy September 18, 2020 9:13 PM BST
Some people easily impressed on ear.
Report Charlton2005 September 18, 2020 11:07 PM BST
odds on how he has turned out after that debut must have been 250/1
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