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jamesp
22 Aug 19 17:57
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Date Joined: 05 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 6,793 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
The Gr.2 Lowther Stakes at York sometimes has a bearing on the following year’s Guineas, but it’s hard to imagine that this afternoon’s renewal, with just two lengths covering the first four home (and the winner and third officially rated just 100 and 96 beforehand), will have any bearing on next year’s classics.

The running of Precious Moments (sixth, beaten 3½ lengths), following two previous moderate efforts (4th of 8, beaten 4½ lengths, in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes; and 5th, beaten over 6 lengths, in the Gr.3 Albany Stakes), suggests that the form of the Gr.2 Airlie Stud Stakes won by Albigna (prominent in the Guineas betting) is nothing special. The form of the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes also looks very moderate, with the winner Under The Stars finishing only fourth today in the Lowther.

Raffle Prize is clearly the best sprint juvenile filly seen so far this season, with wins in the Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes and Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes followed by an excellent second in the Gr.1 Prix Morny at Deauville. She's a very speedy filly, with a sprint pedigree, and it seems unlikely that she will have the requisite stamina for a Guineas.

The filly that interests me most at this stage is Andre Fabre's progressive and potentially smart Tropbeau, winner of her last three races, starting with a bloodless maiden win (at Clairefontaine by 6½ lengths), followed by a smooth win in the Gr.3 Prix Six Perfections, and most recently in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados (readily by 2½ lengths, RPR 109). Connections believe she will be even better on better ground and think she will get further. There must be a doubt about her getting a fast-run mile in top company, as she's by the speedy Showcasing out of 6-7f winner Frangipanni (a daughter of the sprinter Frizzante), and she shows plenty of speed with a tendency to race a bit keenly, but she's already recorded three wins over 7f and has just been entered in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac over a mile (she also holds an entry in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes over 6f). After four runs in quick succession, she will now have a break and will either come back for one of those late-season Gr.1 tests or else she will be put away for the winter. She's generally not quoted for the Guineas, but I've seen 25/1 available and those odds (or bigger) for the Guineas look quite reasonable to me.
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Report jamesp September 26, 2019 7:11 PM BST
11 fillies have been confirmed for the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes on Saturday, which will hopefully lead to a shake-up in the Guineas betting (following so many inconclusive juvenile fillies' races this year). Latest best odds: 11/8 Raffle Prize, 9/2 Tropbeau, 7/1 Living In The Past, 10/1 Etoile, 14/1 Dark Lady, Millisle, 16/1 Nurse Barbara, 22/1 Tango, 25/1 Nina Bailarina, 33/1 Lil Grey, 100/1 Moon Of Love.
Etoile will surely be a bit rusty and in need of the run after more than four months off the track (and just one career start), and she is likely to find the 6f trip on the sharp side (her dam was a 10f performer by Sadler's Wells), but she remains a very interesting prospect. The favourite Raffle Prize will be hard to beat if still in the same form she showed earlier in the season, but I'm hoping for a big run from French filly Tropbeau to encourage connections to give her a prep in the Prix Imprudence in the spring ahead of a tilt at the Guineas. I'm a bit worried about the drop back to 6f, following three victories over 7f, but she's not short of speed and should give a good account. The Lowther form of Living In The Past doesn't look good enough (winning time was nothing special, the third let the form down at Salisbury). Dark Lady and Millisle don't look up to winning in this class. Lightly raced Nurse Barbara (supplemented for this race), however, is interesting back at 6f and certainly can't be ruled out.
Report FELTFAIR September 26, 2019 7:29 PM BST
Raffle Prize for me to win the Cheveley Park.
Report dunlaying September 27, 2019 12:50 PM BST
I agree Feltfair . Anything better than 1/1 is value .
Report jamesp September 27, 2019 3:27 PM BST
Under The Stars finished a length closer to Daahyeh than she managed to do in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, but they more or less reproduced their Curragh form, and with five-times-raced maiden Stylistique (officially rated 97 beforehand) close up in second, the form of today's Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes doesn't look anywhere near Guineas class. Yet another fillies' pattern race where the front four have finished in a heap. The winner reportedly may head next to the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Report jamesp September 28, 2019 2:56 PM BST
Very happy with that performance by Tropbeau in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes, as she was allowed to cruise home in third after meeting trouble in running at a crucial moment. She was clearly second best on the day (she would have finished in front of Raffle Prize if she hadn't met interference) and I'd be confident about her reversing form with the winner Millisle over a longer trip. Millisle (by Starspangledbanner) and Raffle Prize are speedily bred and unlikely to get a mile. Tropbeau is the one to take out of the race and I imagine they will aim to bring her back in the Prix Imprudence next spring, followed by the Guineas. She's not completely guaranteed to get the mile, but she has three wins over 7f and looks likely to get the trip. The winning time must have been a race record (1:09.39), it's certainly the fastest for the race in the last 38 years (helped by the tailwind), the previous record during this period was 1:09.94 by Serious Attitude.
Report unclepuncle September 28, 2019 3:06 PM BST
Tropbeau the only one to take out of the race - good early tip JaemsP.  33/1 at least twice what she should be and I have availed myself.
Report jamesp September 28, 2019 3:28 PM BST
The performances of Earthlight and Golden Horde in the Middle Park Stakes, further enhancing the value of Raffle Prize's earlier form in the Prix Morny, makes me even more confident about Tropbeau. The winning time for the Middle Park (1:09.31) was only fractionally faster than the Cheveley Park. 33/1 about Tropbeau for the Guineas is remarkably good value!
Report jamesp September 28, 2019 4:05 PM BST
Having said that Millisle is unlikely to get a mile, as she's by the sprinter Starspangledbanner out of an Indian Ridge mare, and having wrongly predicted that she wouldn't be good enough to win the Cheveley Park (after she was narrowly beaten at Salisbury last time)(!), I've taken a closer look at her pedigree. There's actually plenty of stamina on the dam's side of her family, so it would be folly to rule her out on the grounds of suspect stamina. She wasn't stopping at the line at the end of a fast-run 6f and she looks sure to get 7f. A small saver at 40/1 (a remarkable price about a Group 1 winner) has been added to my 33/1 bets on Tropbeau and 14/1 Quadrilateral. It's hard to understand how she managed to get beaten at Salisbury last time by Dark Lady (who finished over 5 lengths behind her this afternoon). The Racing Post handicapper rates this the best performance by a juvenile filly so far this season: Millisle 116, Raffle Prize 113, Love 111, Tropbeau 110, Daahyeh 110.
Report roadrunner46 September 29, 2019 6:41 PM BST
your guineas threads are well written and you seem to write about all the key races and runners, so well done. was reading the timeform preview today and they had millisle joint 2nd with dark lady on 119 time figure for the cheveley park race, raffel prize was 124, havent seen the race yet, with favourite slow away,
the winner was entitled to run a big race on on those ratings.
Report smithyads1 September 30, 2019 5:50 PM BST
Jamesp, I would be interested in your views on khayzaraan who appears at 16s in some lists. Not quoted with many of the main books though. Looks to have been impressive in winning a few minor races in France. Any idea where she goes next ?
Report jamesp September 30, 2019 6:48 PM BST
As I mentioned in an earlier post, Khayzaraan holds an entry in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac next weekend. We'll find out on Wednesday whether she's likely to take part. She's clearly a very nice type. You can see her winning performances on the France Galop website.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! October 1, 2019 5:36 PM BST
Millisle -poor Salisbury form
Trainer has said she had a pre race drug test at the course which upset her
Thought drug tests were only after the race.

Wink
Report jamesp October 2, 2019 1:18 PM BST
55 original entries for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac were whittled down to 10 remaining entries this morning (there is a supplementary entry stage tomorrow):
Fee Historique (H.Shimizu); Marieta (M.Delcher Sanchez); Nunzia (F.Vermeulen); Bionic Woman (A.Fabre); Flighty Lady (G.Hernon); Kenlova (P.Bary); Tango (A.O'Brien); Savarin (A.Fabre); Albigna (Mrs J.Harrington); Raven's Cry (P.Twomey)
Andre Fabre's unbeaten filly Savarin, a daughter of multiple Group 1 winner Sarafina, narrowly won the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale (the traditional prep race for this) in a blanket finish (RPR 100) with just over a length covering the first six home (including Flighty Lady in 3rd, Nunzia in 5th and Kenlova in 6th). The form of that race doesn't look great, and it's anyone's guess which one will prevail this time, but the winner Savarin is lightly raced and open to plenty of improvement. Marieta was runner-up to Tropbeau in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados, but she was comfortably beaten there and Fabre (trainer of Tropbeau) should know whether his filly has the measure of that rival. Fabre also runs Bionic Woman (for Godolphin): she quickened up nicely to win a 7f maiden at Saint-Cloud, but this represents a big rise in class. Tango has been kept busy this season and has been found wanting (despite the adoption of different riding tactics and various headgear) in five successive races at Gr.2 and Gr.1 level, most recently in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes, but this looks a substandard Gr.1 and she should be there or thereabouts. Albigna finished a head in front of Tango last time in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes (after a 79-day break) and may well be able to confirm that form. Raven's Cry was found wanting in a Listed race last time and looks outclassed. Overall, a disappointing turnout for this normally informative Gr.1 event. Andre Fabre appears to hold a strong hand with a couple of very promising and lightly raced fillies, but on the evidence so far I doubt whether there's a future 1000 Guineas winner in the line-up.
Report jamesp October 2, 2019 6:45 PM BST
Khayzaraan was taken out of the Prix Marcel Boussac this morning but holds an alternative engagement in the Gr.3 Prix des Reservoirs at Deauville on 23 October. This Gr.3 race rarely has any bearing on the 1000 Guineas, but it looks a sensible next step for Freddy Head's exciting filly.
Report jamesp October 3, 2019 12:01 AM BST
Latest TF ratings (for the best performers in September): 115 Millisle, 113 Raffle Prize, 109p Tropbeau, 108p Love, 106p Quadrilateral, 106 Daahyeh
Report jamesp October 3, 2019 12:11 PM BST
There was one supplementary entry for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac this morning: Plegastell (E.Monfort), a daughter of Planteur, winner of both her starts in the provinces, most recently a Listed race at Craon. Raven's Cry was taken out of the race this morning, leaving ten probable runners.
Report jamesp October 4, 2019 6:01 PM BST
A couple of updates from Jessica Harrington: "You can forget Albigna's run at the Curragh last time out [in the Moyglare Stud Stakes] as she was in season. She is better than that. She worked last week and we were very happy with her," Harrington said. She is clearly expecting an improved performance from Albigna on Sunday in the Prix Marcel Boussac. She is also planning to send unbeaten filly Cayenne Pepper to Newmarket next week for the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile: "she has been in great form since winning at the Curragh. I am delighted with her," the trainer added.
It's hard to know what Cayenne Pepper's optimum trip will be next year: she stayed on well when winning a Gr.3 over a mile at the Curragh last time, and she's by Australia, but her dam (by Elusive Quality) was lightly raced and with unproven stamina (though the grand-dam was a half-sister to King's Best and Urban Sea, the dam of Galileo and Sea The Stars!). She looks sure to get 10f, but one can't be sure whether she will have the speed to win a Guineas or the stamina to win an Oaks. The Fillies' Mile will hopefully tell us more.
Report jamesp October 4, 2019 7:25 PM BST
Latest betting on the Prix Marcel Boussac (Tango was withdrawn this morning, leaving nine runners): 5/2 Savarin, 11/4 Albigna, 6 Bionic Woman, 8 Marieta, 10 Flighty Lady, 20 bar. Albigna is generally around 2/1, with 11/4 available with only one firm. Given Jessica Harrington's positive comments about her filly, the betting looks about right. Albigna backers will certainly want to think about taking the 11/4.
Report jamesp October 5, 2019 9:05 PM BST
The Guineas ante-post favourite Quadrilateral and the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes winner Powerful Breeze have both been supplemented for Friday's Gr.1 Fillies' Mile at Newmarket. With the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes winner Love and Jessie Harrington's unbeaten Cayenne Pepper also likely participants, this may turn out to be a more significant pointer than the Prix Marcel Boussac (due to be run in testing conditions tomorrow).
Report jamesp October 6, 2019 2:09 PM BST
Albigna stayed on well in the soft ground to win the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac today, but she was being hard ridden and not getting anywhere some way out and it was only in the final 100m that she really got going and managed to overhaul long-time leader Marieta, who faded badly in the last 50m. It was the first time Albigna had raced on soft ground and she drifted in the betting, but she seemed to handle it OK, and you'd have to conclude from that stamina-laden performance that she will be well suited by middle distances next season (her dam was a multiple winner over 12f and there's loads of stamina on that side of her family). Marieta was the winner until the final 100m and paid a compliment to Tropbeau, who beat her very comfortably in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados. I wouldn't be in any hurry to back Albigna for the Guineas, as her trainer Jessie Harrington also has Millisle (winner of the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes), Cayenne Pepper (who will aim to give Harrington a Gr.1 treble in the Fillies' Mile on Friday) and the superbly-bred Gr.2 Debutante Stakes winner Alpine Star (half-sister to Alpha Centauri, descended from the great Miesque).
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! October 6, 2019 2:22 PM BST
14-1 generally

Your PICK still available at 33-1


Wink
Report jamesp October 9, 2019 11:49 AM BST
Nine fillies have been declared to run in the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile on Friday (listed here with currently available odds from leading bookmakers): 9/4 Quadrilateral, 11/4 Cayenne Pepper, 3 Love, 11/2 Powerful Breeze, 14 Boomer, 16 Queen Daenerys, 18 Anastarsia, 33 West End Girl, 50 Ananya.

Collateral form suggests that Cayenne Pepper has a good chance of beating Love: the former beat Love's stablemate So Wonderful comfortably by 2½ lengths in a Gr.3 over this trip last time at the Curragh, whereas Love beat the same filly by 1½ lengths in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes (where So Wonderful met trouble in running in the closing stages and looked a shade unlucky).

Some might argue that Love's Moyglare Stud Stakes form has been boosted by the runner-up's subsequent win in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes, but Daahyeh had the best form going into that race and didn't need to find any improvement to win at Newmarket in a bunched finish beating lower-rated fillies. Albigna (6th in the Moyglare, beaten 2½ lengths) went on to produce a much improved performance to land the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac, but it was revealed that she had been in season at the Curragh and was clearly below her best there. Soul Search (4th in the Moyglare) went on to be beaten in a Listed race at Fairyhouse, so I'm far from convinced that this year's Moyglare was anywhere near a vintage renewal. On the other hand, Love is likely to improve for the step up to a mile and is probably capable of achieving a higher rating. Her full sisters Flattering and Peach Tree have both proved to be highly inconsistent performers and it's hard to predict whether Love will follow a similar pattern.

Powerful Breeze is unbeaten in two starts and won the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes last time in a bunched finish in workmanlike style (narrowly holds Boomer on that form). The form of that race looks very ordinary for the grade, but the 6th Cloak Of Spirits (beaten 3½ lengths) managed to finish just half a length behind Daahyeh in the Rockfel next time, so it's entirely possible that this lightly-raced filly, who's proven at the trip (though unproven on soft ground), will be able to compete well with the likes of Love and Cayenne Pepper.

There's a lot of hype surrounding Quadrilateral, so impressive last time in a conditions race at Newbury, but she's a very exciting prospect and if there's a potential Guineas winner among this lot, she's by far the likeliest candidate. She's unproven on soft ground, so she'll want the ground to dry up, but I wouldn't want to bet against her. 14/1 was a fair price for the Guineas after her Newbury romp, but this will tell us whether she's the real deal.
Report jamesp October 9, 2019 12:14 PM BST
Nine fillies are also engaged in the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes on the same card: 2 Final Song, 11/4 Stylistique, 11/2 Wejdan, 8 Vividly, 10 Valeria Messalina, 11 Rose Of Kildare, 16 Separate, 22 Nope, 25 Belle Anglaise.

Final Song has twice been beaten by Raffle Prize over sprint trips (in the Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes and last time in the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes). She's from quite a speedy family and showed lots of pace to win over 5f early in the season, so she's not certain to be suited by 7f on yielding ground, having been off the track since July.

Stylistique is still a maiden after five starts but is progressive and has arguably the best form here, having finished a close second to Daahyeh in the Rockfel last time. She looks the one to beat.

It's interesting that Jessie Harrington, who has a clutch of high class juvenile fillies this season, is bringing over the once-raced Naas maiden winner Valeria Messalina and also Nope (who lost all chance at the start in a Gr.3 at the Curragh last time). Rose Of Kildare has been kept very busy and narrowly won a Gr.3 at Ayr over 6f last time and should appreciate the step up to 7f. The lightly-raced Wejdan ran well in the Lowther and should be suited by the extra furlong. The others are stepping up from maiden company, novice races and nurseries and need to find plenty of improvement. Overall, I think it's unlikely that this race will have much bearing on the Guineas.
Report Figgis October 11, 2019 3:32 PM BST
I don't think Quadrilateral showed quite enough speed last time for a Guineas but I could see her having enough for an Oaks. Today should give a bit more of a pointer to her chance of staying further next year.
Report A_T October 11, 2019 6:21 PM BST
agree more of an Oaks type - especially being a Frankel
Report impossible123 October 11, 2019 8:58 PM BST
It looks like another bunch of non-entities after Minding and Alpha Centauri.
Report jamesp October 12, 2019 8:23 PM BST
The Fillies' Mile is a difficult race to weigh up. The filly that showed the best turn of foot was undoubtedly Powerful Breeze, who came to win the race over a furlong out only to be outstayed in the closing stages by Quadrilateral. Cayenne Pepper got outpaced before staying on best of all in the closing stages and lacks the speed to be a Guineas filly. Love (out to 25/1 for the Guineas) stayed on well too and will be well suited by a step up in distance next season. As far as the Guineas is concerned, the two to take out of the race are clearly the winner and runner-up: it's hard to see the others reversing form with them over this mile trip.

The form looks rock solid (the 'right' fillies dominated the finish) and is probably only just short of Guineas class. The winner enhanced her Guineas claims, as this was a big step up from her conditions race victory at Newbury, but the worrying thing for her Guineas backers is that she looked in trouble coming off the bridle entering the dip (she looked a bit unbalanced and I'm not sure she handled the track, perhaps showing greenness) before showing courage and class to get up on the rail. Initial impressions suggest that she may just lack the speed to win a Guineas and might benefit from a flatter track and/or a longer trip (though I'm not sure she will stay the Oaks trip).

For those not already involved in the Guineas market, 12/1 about Powerful Breeze looks quite good value, compared with the 6/1 on offer about Quadrilateral. Figgis - what did you make of the Fillies' Mile this year?

The Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes resulted in a blanket finish (less than a length covering the first four) and Jessie Harrington (trainer of recent Gr.1 winners Albigna and Millisle) will be delighted that both of her runners finished close up.

Andrew Balding's filly Shadn, previously third in the Gr.2 Mill Reef Stakes, was a narrow winner of the Gr.2 Critérium de Maisons-Laffitte this afternoon, just coming off best in a duel with Freddy Head's colt Devil (previously winner of the Gr.3 Prix Eclipse). This was quite a smart performance and it will be interesting to see where the winner goes next: one imagines that she will be aimed at one of the Guineas trials next spring. She's a daughter (by No Nay Never) of Irish 1000 Guineas runner-up Amethyst (a Sadler's Wells full sister to 2000 Guineas winner King Of Kings), so she has fair prospects of getting a mile.
Report Figgis October 12, 2019 8:52 PM BST
James, I have the Fillies Mile up to par for the race, but that's a level that is usually just short of Guineas winning class. Minding won both races but she won the FM in above average style. I've just had a quick look and I think you have to go back to Bosra Sham for another, and she seemed an above average winner also as far as I remember. I've got Quadrilateral running to a very similar figure she put up when winning the time before at Newbury, so no improvement. I was very interested to see how she got the mile at this stage as I think she has the potential to win an Oaks. I thought she'd get it but you never know for sure. She obviously got it very well and if she goes on next year I haven't seen a better Oaks prospect at this stage.

As to her chance in a Guineas I think she needs to improve. Personally I'm always on the look out for a filly like Sky Lantern, where I think very little improvement is needed, but this year the only filly I've seen close to that level is Raffle Prize and she seems a doubtful stayer. Obviously it's possible Quadrilateral will progress further. I thought fillies like Hermosa and Blue Bunting didn't have the speed for a Guineas as 2yos but had them making 7lbs and 8lbs improvement respectively. I think Quadrilateral has about only 5 or 6 pounds to find. The only thing is it's often the ones you, or at least I, least expect who find the most. I know you're on at bigger prices, so that's different, but at the current price I say she's too short.
Report penzance March 5, 2020 10:28 AM GMT
Powerful Breeze to miss this,shame for the race.
I think she's a good filly.
Report jamesp May 5, 2020 2:59 PM BST
I guess it's all rather irrelevant at the moment, but for what it's worth, Tropbeau and Khayzaraan feature among 16 entries for the Prix de la Grotte, traditional prep race for the French 1,000 Guineas (Poule d'Essai des Pouliches), due to be run at Longchamp next Monday. Fabre's filly is an intended runner, which suggests that her connections are preparing to run her in the French Guineas rather than bring her over to Newmarket. The traditional prep race for the Newmarket Guineas (the Prix Imprudence) has been cancelled this year. It's almost unheard of for a filly to run in the Prix de la Grotte and then the Newmarket Guineas. We don't even know at this stage whether foreign-trained fillies will be allowed to compete in the Guineas, so ante-post betting is a complete stab in the dark.

Roger Charlton is reportedly pleased with the progress made by Quadrilateral over the winter and is keeping her ticking over.
Report blackbarn May 5, 2020 10:07 PM BST
James - Re Khayzaraan. The plan was to run her in the English 1000. Without the Imprudence and the uncertainty over the timing of the English 1000, they have almost certainly changed their plan. If the Pouliches is still the 1st June, she might run in bothWink
Report jamesp May 11, 2020 12:41 PM BST
A narrow half-length win for Tropbeau this afternoon at Longchamp sets her up nicely for a crack at either the French or English Guineas. I haven't watched the replay yet, so don't know how comfortable or hard-fought the victory was. Trainer Andre Fabre thought his filly would need the race, so this was an encouraging start.
Khayzaraan finished tailed off, with something clearly amiss.
Report jamesp May 11, 2020 12:47 PM BST
The winning time was 1.73s faster than the colts' equivalent race (the Prix de Fontainebleau, in which Tropbeau's stablemate Victor Ludorum disappointed).
Report jamesp May 11, 2020 1:07 PM BST
I just watched the replay. It was fairly comfortable, hands and heels. She'll improve for the run and for a quicker surface. She's proved she stays a mile. Now we wait to hear about future running plans.
Report jamesp May 11, 2020 1:16 PM BST
The Racing Post reporter described her win as 'gutsy'. Their race reader wrote of the winner's performance: 'Tracked leaders, prominent and travelling well 2f out, ridden and kept on well from under 2f out, led 150yds out, ridden out.' Jockey Mickael Barzalona reported afterwards that he didn't have to get serious with his filly and always felt sure his filly would win.
Report jamesp May 11, 2020 3:47 PM BST
With the French Guineas scheduled for 1st June and racing in Britain now not expected to resume before June at the very earliest, I guess there's a possibility that Tropbeau could come over for the Newmarket Guineas, if all goes to plan next time in the Pouliches. She should have a fitness advantage too! Cool
Report John.W.Henry. May 13, 2020 3:13 PM BST
James, many of the races i viewed at longchamp on this day appeared to be pace bias races. Your thoughts ?
Report jamesp May 15, 2020 10:28 AM BST
In the Prix de Fontainebleau the winner set a sedate pace and was given an easy lead, so when he was ridden clear the others had too much ground to make up (poor judgement from the other jockeys, in my opinion). In the Prix de la Grotte they went a true pace (arguably, Khayzaraan went off too fast and paid the price, folding tamely), so it paid to be fairly close to the pace (not wanting to come from too far back in the soft ground). Those held up in rear had no chance. Mickael Barzalona judged the pace perfectly on the winner.
Report harry callaghan May 16, 2020 10:08 AM BST
In the Prix de la Grotte they went a true pace (arguably, Khayzaraan went off too fast and paid the price, folding tamely), so it paid to be fairly close to the pace (not wanting to come from too far back in the soft ground). Those held up in rear had no chance. Mickael Barzalona judged the pace perfectly on the winner.


james no offence but john henry is asking you're thoughts on a speed friendly track i think?

and you have replied that it payed to be close to the pace in a truly run race in the prix se la grotte. are you confirming his thoughts on a track bias or do you believe it pays to be close up in a truly run race on soft going?

just interested what your thinking is here?
Report jamesp May 18, 2020 10:25 AM BST
Harry, I understood John's question as referring to a pace bias (for whatever reason, presumably the soft ground) on that particular day, rather than a track bias (being a speed friendly track, for example) as such. But John might want to come back and comment on that. My own thoughts are that a track bias (favouring front-runners, for example) only exists for jockeys with a decent clock inside their head. Tight turning tracks (Chester, Chelmsford, Catterick being obvious examples in the UK) can certainly favour front-runners (especially when they're well drawn in races where there is a significant draw effect), but only when they're ridden by intelligent jockeys who know how to judge pace (in the conditions).

It can definitely be an advantage, for example, to be prominent at a track like Goodwood or Longchamp if the jockey is a good judge of pace and takes account of the conditions, but there's no advantage at all if they go off too fast and have nothing left to give in the final stages of the race. Equally, there is no point using exaggerated hold-up tactics if jockeys in front are dictating a sensible pace (for the conditions).

If a jockey has judged the pace well and is riding a horse that can quicken or stay on from a prominent position in the latter stages, it's very difficult for a horse to come from off the pace in soft ground and get into a challenging position. I think that was certainly the case in some of the races at Longchamp last week.
Report jamesp May 18, 2020 10:29 AM BST
Comments by Andre Fabre over the weekend suggest that Tropbeau might still come over for the Newmarket Guineas, which is obviously welcome news for those of us who backed her at big odds last summer... Let's hope Lady Bamford opts for Newmarket! Here's the relevant extract from the RP article:

Fabre said no discussion had taken place as to whether Tropbeau, favourite for the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches, six days before the 1,000 Guineas, could be rerouted to Newmarket.

The daughter of Showcasing has attracted support for the 1,000 Guineas on the back of the decision to allow foreign-trained runners and is as short as 12-1 for the race.

Unlike Alson, Tropbeau has enjoyed a prep run, winning the Prix de la Grotte on Monday, and also has experience of the Rowley Mile following her third placed effort in the Cheveley Park last September.

Owned by Lady Bamford, Tropbeau is 7-4 favourite for the Pouliches.

“I don’t know how sporting it would be to run Tropbeau and take advantage [of France’s early start] but I have yet to discuss it with the owner," he said. "Nowadays, many trainers go straight to the Guineas anyway.”
Report harry callaghan May 23, 2020 3:28 PM BST
sorry for late reply james been busy trying to formulate a new handicap system that is a head feck

at first i struggled with your thinking but on reflection we aren't a world apart, my reading was john meant a speed favouring track i don't know why i like the yank term, basically meaning it was impossible to win unless you had a certain track position, in this case off the front and the front end speed could not be closed down, anyway thanks for setting my mind straight on your thinking

this 1000 guineas is looking it's normal brutal affair..it will be interesting to see what jessie harrington may bring, as she looks to have a really nice crop of fillies
Report jamesp May 25, 2020 1:24 AM BST
re: Jessie Harrington: my understanding is that Millisle will travel over for the Newmarket Guineas, with Albigna likely to stay at home for the Irish equivalent. No decision yet on where the potentially smart Alpine Star (half-sister to Alpha Centauri) might run next.
Report punts May 30, 2020 1:02 PM BST
Raffle Prize is 25/1

Frankie all but confirmed to ride her.

https://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/31648457/1000-guineas---huge-price

Didn't see this thread. Apologies James.
Report jamesp May 30, 2020 2:09 PM BST
The big unknown for Raffle Prize is the trip. She was a very smart 6f filly last year, but there must be a doubt about her getting the mile. She's by the sprinter Slade Power out of 6-7f winner Summer Fete, who failed to get a mile both times she attempted the trip. She showed loads of natural speed last year. On the other hand, one of her siblings (by stamina influence Street Cry) won over 9.5f (in a slowly run race on the all-weather) and another sibling (by Cape Cross) won a slowly run 12f maiden (again on the all-weather), and there is some stamina farther back in the dam's pedigree (the grand-dam won at up to 9.5f and has produced the useful 12f winner Mountain Hunter and a winning hurdler in addition to Summer Fete), so there is some encouragement in the pedigree that Raffle Prize might get 7f+ if she has inherited some of the stamina genes from that side of her family. Clearly Mark Johnston thinks she's worth a try at a mile - it's her only chance of classic glory, after all. Good luck with the antepost bet.
Report unclepuncle May 30, 2020 2:28 PM BST
With Covid-19 scuppering my antepost bet on Tropbeau I have looked at the market and trainer comments and landed on Peaceful at 20/1.

Hated the ground when narrowly beaten over c&d at the back-end so it is easy to forgive that, and very quick ground loojs assured.
Report jamesp June 1, 2020 3:47 PM BST
With Tropbeau missing from next Sunday's race, I'm pinning my hopes on Quadrilateral and Millisle (backed at 40/1 after last season's Cheveley Park Stakes). I was pleased to read Jessica Harrington's very upbeat comments about her filly: "Millisle heads to the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket and I see no reason why she won't stay a mile. Her breeding suggests she will get it anyway. She's done very, very well over the winter and you'd have to be excited about her for the season."

PS: I don't know what went wrong for Tropbeau in this afternoon's French Guineas. She finished only fourth (beaten a couple of lengths), but I haven't watched the replay yet...
Report jamesp June 1, 2020 4:00 PM BST
Just watched the Pouliches replay: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdJikCXjhYE
My initial impression is that Tropbeau didn't quite get the trip today: she was well placed, Mickael Barzalone came to deliver his challenge and she briefly looked the likely winner, but her effort was short-lived and she seemed to be outstayed in the last 100 metres. Maybe something will come to light to explain this disappointing performance - after all, she'd beaten today's winner in the Prix de la Grotte three weeks ago. The winning time was fast (1m 35.68, tailwind?), though 1.5s slower than the colts' equivalent race won by Victor Ludorum.
Report paulo47 June 1, 2020 6:29 PM BST
Was ground slightly worse wider out , i just wondered .
Report punts June 1, 2020 7:11 PM BST
Update:

Dettori also confirmed he will partner the Mark Johnston-trained Raffle Prize in the Qipco 1,000 Guineas (3.35) the following day. She can be backed at 16-1.

The daughter of Slade Power won three of her six starts last season, including the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes, and is among 17 entries.

Quadrilateral heads the market at 5-2 for trainer Roger Charlton. She enjoyed an unbeaten juvenile season, which included a narrow victory over Powerful Breeze in the Group 1 Fillies' Mile at Newmarket.

1,000 Guineas nominations: Boomer, Cloak Of Spirits, Final Song, Graceful Magic, Les Hogues, Love, Millisle, Peaceful, Quadrilateral, Raffle Prize, Romsey, Rose Of Kildare, Shimmering, So Wonderful, Summer Romance, Under The Stars, Yes Always

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/1000-guineas/winner

Advised 25/1 but I was boosted to 28/1 so I'm in a good position. It will get shorter later in the week when the housewife money comes for Frankie's mount sow what should I do? ExcitedLaugh
Report punts June 1, 2020 7:23 PM BST
I like Quadrilateral.

Frankel stats for 8f @ Newmarket are good and Roger Charlton knows what he's doing.

I'm probably going to trade out my Raffle Prize position and shove the profits on her.  Yuu never know.
Report FOYLESWAR June 1, 2020 7:44 PM BST
great to have the racing back ,we take it for granted like most things but boy do i miss it ! on the plus side all the money I have saved not betting hardly in the last 10 weeks or so means a healthy bank for the ante post on the classics and even next years chelt fest , anyway good luck for the season all . all systems go for the guineas this week .
Report luckyme June 1, 2020 11:41 PM BST
It looks like SO WONDERFUL is going the Irish 1000g, into 13/2 with Paddys and 20s with laddies for Newmarket, Sad
Report punts June 4, 2020 2:51 PM BST
Disaster!

Frankie no longer riding Raffle Prize (see other thread).

She is now 10/1 with bookmakers. I think that is as good as it gets to be honest unless Johnston and connections 'fancy' it and start lumping on. 

Possible. We'll see.

My plan is still to trade out for a profit and shove in on the jolly which looks like a cert to me.
Report sageform June 4, 2020 5:33 PM BST
I am on Quadrilateral for the Oaks but the Guineas price is very short. She took a long time to get past a couple of others in her final run at 2 so I suspect she will be better over more than a mile. Not that I fancy anything else in the 1000 Gns.
Report jamesp June 4, 2020 5:55 PM BST
John Ingles, in a well-argued preview, has picked out Millisle as the likeliest filly to upset the favourite Quadrilateral (my two remaining long-term picks):
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/previews/1000-guineas-preview-step-up-to-a-mile-is-no-problem-for-millisle-362020
Report punts June 4, 2020 6:04 PM BST
Do Timeform rate Millisle higher than Quadrilateral? I doubt it.  Also Charlton is a much better trainer.

I still think she is going to win which is why i'll be having my free bet on her!:P
Report sintonian June 4, 2020 8:01 PM BST
Tropbeau was very disappointing, she had the beating of the field on more than one piece of form and at the time I thought she would have been suited by the switch to Deauville more than most. She was in a good position through out and travelled well but just didn't have much of an effort in her. Maybe something will come to light.
Report jamesp June 5, 2020 10:25 AM BST
re: ratings. Timeform had Millisle (115) 9lbs ahead of Quadrilateral (106p) at the end of last season. On official ratings, however, Millisle (115) is only one pound ahead of Quadrilateral (114).
re: trainers. Roger Charlton is a very talented, intelligent and experienced trainer. One of the best in the business, no question. But I can't agree that he's 'a much better trainer' than the equally capable, intelligent and experienced Jessica Harrington (one of the shrewdest and most adaptable trainers in the business, in my opinion).
Report jamesp June 5, 2020 10:35 AM BST
Correction re: ratings
Sorry, I mistakenly gave you Quadrilateral's pre-Fillies' Mile Timeform rating. I haven't got her updated rating, but she's not included in the list of two-year-olds rated 111+, so I guess she's rated about 110. The racecard will be published shortly, and that will give her updated rating.
Report jamesp June 5, 2020 10:39 AM BST
Quadrilateral's rating is confirmed as 110p (I searched through last season's weekly ratings updates to find it).
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/ratings-update/ratings-update-pinatubo-produces-another-performance-of-merit-14102019
Report Figgis June 5, 2020 5:10 PM BST
For me, the filly with clearly the best form is Raffle Prize. In my view she's already shown form good enough to win a Guineas but the obvious doubt is her stamina. Maybe she can last the extra 2 furlongs but even at a decent price I'll pass. I have Millisle's Cheveley Park form next best. Raffle Prize was obviously below par that day but it was still a good level shown from the winner. Looking at Millisle's previous runs the question is whether she was a much improved filly after four races, or was it just a case where she ran out of her skin on the day and unlikely to be repeated? I'm more inclined to think the latter, and as she's another with stamina doubts I reckon she's pretty short.

Last year I thought Quadrilateral was more of an Oaks filly than one for the Guineas. Unless she improves again I can see her being placed but it would be disappointing if the level she's shown proves good enough to win. As mentioned, maybe she can progress further but so could others, such as Love, who I have at a similar level on her best piece of form. The rest don't really look up to Guineas winning standard but it's not exactly unknown for a relatively unfancied filly to show big improvement on the day. With no standout runner guaranteed to stay and no proof of any of them remaining in last season's form there could be an upset. Anyone on Quadrilateral at a big price has done well but if she gets any shorter I will be a layer.
Report punts June 6, 2020 11:43 AM BST
James: Charlton has an excellent record at Newmarket particularly with favourites. I trust he can get the job done.

Harrington's record in the UK is not great. Not saying she can't pull this off but I dont rate her over Roger. Indeed if you follow Harrington's runners here you would be skint. The danger is almost certainly -as always - the O'Brien horse. I notice it is being backed ...
Report Schraderbrau June 6, 2020 6:53 PM BST
2003 & 2004 winners Russian Rhythm & Attraction last to win this race jumping straight from 6f. 12/1 & 11/2 respectively. Millisle too short to back but could drift plenty before the off. Looking at the rest now.
Report jamesp June 6, 2020 7:45 PM BST
I'm happy to lay off some of my 40/1 Millisle (what an astonishing price that was for a Cheveley Park winner) at 100/30, and still have the two favourites in play at 40s and 14s. I'm not surprised that Love has shortened (due to the O'Brien/Galileo factor), but I get the impression that Aidan suspects she'll be better over the Oaks trip, and I can't see Raffle Prize lasting the trip (though fast ground will help her, and her trainer seems confident she'll get the trip).
Report FOYLESWAR June 6, 2020 9:40 PM BST
am on love at 12s but one that interests me more for the oaks is jgs shimmering who is stoutly bred and should improve for  further than tommorows mile, interesting that jg is pitching her in at the deep end in the gns . took the 50/1 for the oaks .
Report jamesp June 6, 2020 10:03 PM BST
Shimmering is an intriguing runner. She looks totally outclassed and has done nothing on the track to merit being thrown into Group 1 company: her form is exceptionally moderate (although she looked quite promising when winning on the all-weather just before Christmas); her half-brother is just a 95-rated 6f handicapper, and her dam showed nothing in two starts on the racetrack. I can only assume that she's done exceptionally well over the winter/spring and has been doing spectacular things on the gallops. Whether she can emulate her grand-dam, who won the Fillies' Mile in an unbeaten juvenile campaign and was later runner-up in the Irish Guineas and the Coronation Stakes, remains to be seen. Famous last words.
Report unclepuncle June 6, 2020 10:57 PM BST
With two antepost non runners Cry I will go for Boomer e/w 4 places @ 14/1. Not beaten far in the May Hill or Fillies Mile.
Report sintonian June 7, 2020 5:38 AM BST
I think Love is the one who wants the rain to stay away the most. There are showers forecast however.
Report paulo47 June 7, 2020 9:06 AM BST
Have Millisle from 20s downwards and just hope she can stay balanced during the latter stages .
Report Paterson92 June 7, 2020 10:51 AM BST
Given that you normally require a horse who stays further than a mile to win a Guineas, I personally couldn’t back Millisle or Raffle Prize today. Assuming the rain stays away, I’d fancy Love to reverse the form with Quadrilateral. It also seems significant AOB is sending only one horse over for this, although that may well be down to Heffernan, Lordan etc not being able to travel over. I at least expected Peaceful or So Wonderful to run, but looks like they will run in the Irish equivalent next weekend.
Report unclepuncle June 7, 2020 11:17 AM BST
Paterson92 07 Jun 20 09:51 
Given that you normally require a horse who stays further than a mile to win a Guineas, I personally couldn’t back Millisle or Raffle Prize today.


Obviously plenty of strong staying fillies have won it but so have plenty of speedy types.
There is a saying that the 1,000 Guineas is like the last juvenile race of a horses career (though the extra month this year may negate that)  and plenty of fast two year olds who barely stayed a mile have gone on to win it - Natagora, Attraction, Special Duty, Las Meninas for example.
With fast ground, a tail wind and an advantage to be near the rail it is proving difficult to make up ground in the last 2f.
Report FELTFAIR June 7, 2020 11:30 AM BST
Not my favourite race but did back Love a while ago and have traded. Couldn`t resist the 7/2 Quadrilateral. Either will do but not holding my breath given some of the strange results in this race.
Report Paterson92 June 7, 2020 11:40 AM BST
Absolutely and there will certainly be winners with similar profiles go on to win future Guineas. Plenty of encouragement from the Dam’s side to suggest Millisle will get the mile for example.

I’d say Special Duty in 2010 was the last similar type going into her Guineas in that she hadn’t ran a yard further than 6f as a 2 year old. However the main difference is that she got a prep run beforehand and that prep run was over 7f.
Report impossible123 June 7, 2020 12:51 PM BST
I think Love is running here because of Royal Ascot and the Epsom Oaks to avoid quarantine, I believe.
Report Millerracing67 June 7, 2020 12:55 PM BST
Had few £££ on Quadrilateral at 4.4 last night. Think she prob want further as a 3yo, but thought the same yest with the 2000gns winner, & he outstayed them, think she can do the same.
Report FELTFAIR June 7, 2020 1:42 PM BST
How many horses have caught Covid 19 impossible 123?
Report Paterson92 June 7, 2020 2:35 PM BST
I’d say Love is running here because it’s the first Classic of the season and her trainer has an exceptional record in the race in recent times ...
Report Figgis June 7, 2020 3:03 PM BST
Not brave enough to lay Quadrilateral at the price. As I think she's certainly good enough to place in a decent year and with doubts about the faster fillies she might just be good enough in a poor year. So no bet but would like to see Raffle Prize last home as she was the best 2yo, in my view, and very consistent until being a bit below par in her last race.
Report A_T June 7, 2020 3:12 PM BST
if the stalls are on the the far side a split field looks inevitable - I'll go for Shimmering
Report Try My Best June 7, 2020 3:34 PM BST
Only 2 winners of the Cheveley Park going on to win the 1000g in the last 30 years.
Report Try My Best June 7, 2020 3:42 PM BST
Well done the Ballydoyle boys. Simply the best.
Report jamesp June 7, 2020 4:27 PM BST
Prediction for next year's Guineas winner:
A Galileo filly trained by Aidan O'Brien
Prediction for 2022 Guineas:
A Galileo filly trained by Aidan O'Brien
Prediction for 2023 Guineas:
A Galileo filly trained by Aidan O'Brien....
Report FELTFAIR June 7, 2020 4:29 PM BST
Drawn 14 and no cover,wins over 4 lengths. Outstanding performance on ground clearly to her liking.Probably the best 1000 Guineas winners I have seen.

Quadrilateral also ran an exceptional race after pulling and tugging from flag fall.
Report unclepuncle June 7, 2020 7:48 PM BST
Superb performance by the winner - just very professional. Oaks looks a penalty kick.

Second had the run of the race so was almost certainly flattered but Quadrilateral is still a very nice prospect - Charlton is the last trainer I’d want a Guineas horse with but with some more time she should be winning a Group 1 this season.
Report sintonian June 7, 2020 9:44 PM BST
Really impressive, though I do think Good or better ground is imperative for her to perform like that. Soft ground at Epsom would make things very open.
Report jamesp June 8, 2020 1:33 PM BST
My initial impression is that this was a slightly below par Guineas, purely in terms of the form. Of the leading contenders (last season's top performers), Raffle Prize clearly wasn't right and dropped away tamely, Millisle looked unbalanced and ill at ease on the track (which is odd, considering that she handled it OK in the Cheveley Park Stakes on quick ground last autumn), and the favourite Quadrilateral looked a bit fresh and probably wasn't as ready for this test as the winner. It's hard to ignore the fact that a couple of thoroughly exposed fillies rated 98 and 97 finished just behind Quadrilateral in 4th and 5th - Final Song (100/1, OR 98) finished a length behind the favourite, and Romsey (200/1, OR 97) finished a further ½ length behind. It's hard to say whether either of those fillies improved on their official rating, though doubtless the handicapper will put them up a few pounds. The runner-up Cloak Of Spirits has clearly done well and was expected to run well, but her pre-race official rating of 106 was based on a rather dubious interpretation of last season's Rockfel Stakes where the exposed 97-rated maiden Stylistique had finished within half a length of the winner.
In conclusion, I suspect that Love didn't need to improve at all on her official rating of 111 (based on her Moyglare Stud Stakes win and Fillies' Mile form last season) to win yesterday's Guineas. She's clearly gone the right way, she showed more speed and better acceleration than last year, and she will take all the beating in the Oaks (where the longer trip should suit her even better), but the bare form of this year's Guineas makes it look just an average renewal.
Report Figgis June 8, 2020 3:53 PM BST
I have it as a good up to scratch winning performance but nothing outstanding. 5lbs better than O'Brien's winner last year, Hermosa, but a couple of pounds behind Winter and 7lbs behind the exceptional performance put up by Minding. She goes to Epsom with an obvious fav's chance if she recovers in time. As for Quadrilateral, even though I'm sure she wouldn't have beaten Love yesterday, I have her running some way below her best form. Hopefully that isn't a sign of permanent decline and if she can go on from this I reckon she can narrow the deficit over 12f, and at least give Love more of a race.
Report paulo47 June 8, 2020 6:33 PM BST
I think I/we  overrated Millisle's Cheveley Park form  , that day she was scrubbed along the whole way and only ran properly on reaching the uphill finish under strong driving . She was all over the place going into the dip . On Sunday she travelled sweetly initially , but only had 3 behind her at halfway when the pace increased . She did run on , and at least had a relatively easy race , and  may be a soft ground horse ,but  over what distance and what track I have no idea .
Report Howellsy June 8, 2020 8:11 PM BST
Figgis, I totally agree with you on Love's figure. I have it pretty much the same in relation to the fillies you mention. Very hard to beat at Epsom if she can reproduce it. I really was hoping Quad could win but I've lost faith in her now. I can't see her settling in an Oaks, nor handling the track under pressure. There's still time for something to emerge to give Love something to think about, but I'm not holding my breath.
Report Figgis June 8, 2020 9:52 PM BST
Howellsy, bearing in mind the time comparisons on the day and the fact that Quadrilateral could only finish 1 length ahead of Final Song and 1.5 lengths in front of Romsey, do you believe she ran to her best form? Surely she can't be written off just yet with a run under her belt and going up in distance.
Report Howellsy June 8, 2020 10:53 PM BST
Figgis, I actually have her running exactly the same speed figure in her last 3 starts. I know few would accept that, but that's how I see it. Her one chance of success is that a step up in trip brings about significant improvement. I now think that's unlikely as she seems to have become a bit temperamental and less tractable.
Report Figgis June 8, 2020 10:59 PM BST
I agree with her running the same figure on her previous two starts, but have her a good 8lbs below that on Sunday. I too thought she was a bit keen in the Guineas but I'd me amazed if she can't get 12f so would just put that down to being a bit fresh first time up.
Report sintonian June 10, 2020 7:15 PM BST
Hindsight obviously, but having seen how Quadrilateral ran she looked like the one horse who would have benfitted the most from a Prep run (if things were normal). I expect she'll travel a lot better on her next start.

Domino Darling is the only fly in the ointment I can see to Love. She runs in the same Listed race Haggas won with Sea Of Class two years ago, at Newbury this week.
Report elisjohn June 20, 2020 2:33 PM BST
1000 form doesnt look very good after the coronation does it
Report jamesp June 21, 2020 4:22 PM BST
Yes, it's reasonable to assume that Albigna would have beaten Love if they had met in the Guineas. Her winning performance in the Coronation Stakes was the best we've seen from a three-year-old filly so far this season, and let's not forget that she beat Love into fifth in last season's Debutante Stakes. The Guineas form does look rather weak this year, even though the winner is a smart filly and has done well from two to three. The Guineas form was further let down by Millisle in the Commonwealth Cup: she has failed to run to anything like her Cheveley Park Stakes form in her two starts this season.
Report FELTFAIR June 21, 2020 4:52 PM BST
??
Report FELTFAIR June 21, 2020 4:52 PM BST
??
Report FOYLESWAR June 21, 2020 5:47 PM BST
alpine star^^^^^
Report jamesp June 22, 2020 12:30 PM BST
Sorry, yes, I meant Alpine Star of course.
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