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jamesp
22 Aug 19 17:57
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The Gr.2 Lowther Stakes at York sometimes has a bearing on the following year’s Guineas, but it’s hard to imagine that this afternoon’s renewal, with just two lengths covering the first four home (and the winner and third officially rated just 100 and 96 beforehand), will have any bearing on next year’s classics.

The running of Precious Moments (sixth, beaten 3½ lengths), following two previous moderate efforts (4th of 8, beaten 4½ lengths, in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes; and 5th, beaten over 6 lengths, in the Gr.3 Albany Stakes), suggests that the form of the Gr.2 Airlie Stud Stakes won by Albigna (prominent in the Guineas betting) is nothing special. The form of the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes also looks very moderate, with the winner Under The Stars finishing only fourth today in the Lowther.

Raffle Prize is clearly the best sprint juvenile filly seen so far this season, with wins in the Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes and Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes followed by an excellent second in the Gr.1 Prix Morny at Deauville. She's a very speedy filly, with a sprint pedigree, and it seems unlikely that she will have the requisite stamina for a Guineas.

The filly that interests me most at this stage is Andre Fabre's progressive and potentially smart Tropbeau, winner of her last three races, starting with a bloodless maiden win (at Clairefontaine by 6½ lengths), followed by a smooth win in the Gr.3 Prix Six Perfections, and most recently in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados (readily by 2½ lengths, RPR 109). Connections believe she will be even better on better ground and think she will get further. There must be a doubt about her getting a fast-run mile in top company, as she's by the speedy Showcasing out of 6-7f winner Frangipanni (a daughter of the sprinter Frizzante), and she shows plenty of speed with a tendency to race a bit keenly, but she's already recorded three wins over 7f and has just been entered in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac over a mile (she also holds an entry in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes over 6f). After four runs in quick succession, she will now have a break and will either come back for one of those late-season Gr.1 tests or else she will be put away for the winter. She's generally not quoted for the Guineas, but I've seen 25/1 available and those odds (or bigger) for the Guineas look quite reasonable to me.

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Replies: 123
By:
jamesp
When: 15 Sep 19 10:21
Today's Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes looks a Group 1 race in name only. I can't ever recall such a weak-looking renewal of this prestigious race. Jessie Harrington has a strong team of juvenile fillies this season, so it will be interesting to see how Albigna performs after a 79 day absence. The step up to 7f should suit her and she probably won't need to improve on her earlier Gr.2 win, as most of her rivals today have already had their limitations exposed in pattern company. The form of that Curragh 6f Gr.2 win looks nothing special but it will be no surprise if she manages to follow up today.

I'm a little surprised that connections have chosen to step Daahyeh up in trip. Although she looked outpaced by Raffle Prize at Newmarket last time, that was hardly surprising given that the winner is the best 6f juvenile filly in Europe. I think she was simply beaten by a faster filly, but it's no guarantee that the extra furlong will suit her: indeed, she is sprint-bred (by sprinter Bated Breath out of 5f winner Affluent, by Oasis Dream) and I think it's very unlikely (on breeding) that she will get a mile next season.

Things didn't go the way of Soul Search last time in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes, but she managed to finish within a length of the winner (a stablemate of Albigna), holds So Wonderful, Love and Tango on that form, and could spring a surprise. Under The Stars won at long odds in the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot and appeared to be beaten on merit in a moderate renewal of the Gr.2 Lowther Stakes at York last time, but certainly can't be ruled out if suited by the step up to 7f.

Conclusion: a decidedly uninspiring race on paper. We'll need to see an impressive performance today to excite any real interest in next year's Guineas!
By:
jamesp
When: 15 Sep 19 14:54
I very much doubt if we've seen the Guineas winner in this afternoon's Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. With just 2¾ lengths covering the first seven home, they look a very ordinary bunch of fillies. It's the latest in a series of tight finishes in juvenile fillies' Group races this season; it's remarkable how many times in recent weeks the first four finishers have been covered by barely a couple of lengths: Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes (2¾ lengths), Gr.2 Lowther Stakes (2 lengths), Gr.2 Debutante Stakes (1¾ lengths), Gr.3 Prestige Stakes (1¾ lengths), Gr.2 May Hill Stakes (1¾ lengths). There has been no stand-out filly in GB or Ireland this season apart from the speedy Raffle Prize. They just seem to take turns to beat each other, and today's race was no different (the winner and third had both been beaten by the fourth Soul Search last time). The winner Love shapes as though she will stay very well next season (one of her full sisters has won over 14f this season, the other won over 12f last year). The runner-up Daahyeh seemed to stay the 7f and is worth another try at the trip (maybe in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes). The morning favourite Albigna was weak in the market, raced a bit keenly and failed to quicken. The winning time was very slow (2.46s slower than the National Stakes) and the form looks very ordinary for the grade.
By:
jamesp
When: 15 Sep 19 15:13
On the other side of the channel Sheikh Hamdan appears to have a nice filly in the shape of Khayzaraan (trained by Freddy Head). After an unplaced effort over 6f on debut (sent off favourite, met trouble in running, unable to challenge), she won her maiden by 9 lengths at Deauville, and followed up yesterday in a mile conditions race at Chantilly by 4½ lengths (impressive, winning time 1.4s faster than the colts' equivalent race on the same card). She's a Kingman half-sister to multiple Gr.3 winning sprinter Tantheem; the dam won over a mile and the grand-dam is a half-sister to top miler Tamayuz. The trainer knows the family very well and likes the fact that this filly is more tractable (less edgy) than some of the others he has trained: she likes to make the running but is not a headstrong type. She holds an entry in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac and looks sure to make her mark at a higher level.
By:
bosra shame
When: 15 Sep 19 18:02
I think you are under estimating the improvement that Galileo's make James.  In just four runs she has gone from a maiden to a Group 1 winner and looks tailor made for the Newmarket straight mile. She also races prominently who has seemed to be a benefit in recent years
By:
jamesp
When: 15 Sep 19 20:08
It's a fair point to make about the improvement made by Galileo's progeny, but I'm just not convinced that Love is going to have the speed or the class (at a mile) to be a Guineas winner. What has she achieved in beating her stablemate So Wonderful (still a maiden, albeit a good one, after eight starts) by 1½ lengths in a slow winning time? It's nowhere near classic standard, so she will need to make plenty of improvement, even assuming she has the speed for a Guineas filly. She doesn't appear to have a turn of foot, she's a workmanlike staying type who will surely need middle distances to be seen to best advantage next season. Furthermore both of her full sisters (Peach Tree and Flattering) have proven to be highly inconsistent performers, alternating good with bad performances throughout their careers, and we've seen similar inconsistency in several of the dam's siblings - it seems to be a quirky family! There are no top class performers close up in the dam's family (unlike the families of Aidan's recent Guineas winners Hermosa and Minding, or last year's Guineas-placed Happily).
Mind you, I didn't expect Hermosa to be good or fast enough to win an average Guineas, Winter was another surprise winner, and I remember thinking the same about Blue Bunting some years ago, so I stand ready to be proven wrong again (especially in what is shaping into a very ordinary year for juvenile fillies)! Shocked
By:
impossible123
When: 20 Sep 19 08:50
Next year's renewal is on a friday - is that the 1st? I thought it has always been a sunday with the 2000G the day before; 2000G is on thursday in 2020.
By:
Lance in France
When: 20 Sep 19 09:06
2nd and 3rd of May as far as I can see. Saturday and Sunday as usual
By:
impossible123
When: 20 Sep 19 09:14
Is that so? According to Oddschecker it's  30th April (thursday) and 1st May (friday). I've not really checked the calendar what days they are though.
By:
jamesp
When: 20 Sep 19 19:22
A very impressive performance from Roger Charlton's filly Quadrilateral in the 7f conditions race at Newbury today has seen her catapulted to the front of the 1000 Guineas betting (at odds ranging from 10/1 to a top price 14/1). The Frankel filly travelled really well through the race before being pushed clear under minimal pressure to score by 9 lengths. The winning time was fractionally faster than the Listed race won by 112-rated Tabarrak, and nearly a second quicker than the nursery on the same card. This conditions race used to be a good pointer and has been won by some smart fillies over the years, notably Milligram (runner-up in the English and Irish Guineas, winner of the Coronation Stakes and QEII Stakes) and Balanchine (short head 2nd in the Guineas, winner of the Oaks and Irish Oaks); the great Salsabil managed to get beaten a short head in the 1989 renewal before winning three classics the following season. Quadrilateral could well be in the same bracket as those illustrious fillies and 14/1 for the Guineas looks a fair price, considering the dearth of smart prospects in the fillies division this year. She's in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac or could be supplemented for the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile. A mile will be no problem: she's by Frankel out of a 9½f winner who's a half-sister to Three Valleys. Here's an article about her pedigree:
https://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/bloodstock-latest/a-look-at-the-pedigree-of-quadrilateral-whos-shaping-up-to-be-a-star/400688
By:
impossible123
When: 20 Sep 19 19:47
Quadrilateral was visually impressive, not sure what she's beaten. But, she's out of Frankel. What was that filly of Charlton that was promising but did not deliver later on? She was also fav for the 1000G at one stage.
By:
jamesp
When: 21 Sep 19 10:00
You're probably remembering Fair Eva, one of Frankel's first winners, who was very impressive in her first two starts (including the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes by 4 lengths) but was then beaten at odds-on in both the Gr.2 Lowther and Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes. She was a speedy 6-7f filly (by Frankel out of African Rose) and I always had doubts about her getting a mile at three. She started at 8/1 for the Guineas on her seasonal debut and was beaten a furlong out.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 21 Sep 19 12:03
Roger Charlton training a guineas winner - about as likely as Leicester winning the Premier League. Anything is possible!!Laugh
By:
impossible123
When: 21 Sep 19 13:23
'jamesp', that was the one. Fair Eva was indeed impressive. She created quite a stir too being the 1st crop by Frankel.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Sep 19 12:04
I'd say this year's 1000 was bang on average for the race and putting Qaudrilateral's latest performance into that race I'd have her finishing very narrowly outside the first 4. It was only her second start and it was such a decisive win, so there's no saying she can't improve on that again this year, but for me that's as good as she is right now and any improvement will need to come from physical progress or experience, rather than allowing her extra at this stage.

Whether she improves again this year it's obviously still possible that she could do so over the winter. I have Hermosa stepping up 8lbs from last year. The trouble is you could say that about loads of them, and it's often the ones that don't seem the most obvious candidates who improve the most. I didn't particularly fancy Hermosa to improve, so well done to anyone who did. Anyone with bigger prices on Quad have done well but I don't see her as any value at all right now. I agree with jamesp about the Love filly, that looks poor form for the grade.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Sep 19 12:57
I see Quadrilateral has also been put up at the head of the Oaks market too. I don't have any opinion on her staying the trip and would want to see her over a well run 1m this year before taking a view, but as far as ability goes then I'd say her latest win reveals her up to scratch for winning that race.
By:
jamesp
When: 22 Sep 19 19:21
Yes, I agree that Quadrilateral needs to find further improvement, but I'm sure she's capable of it: the fact that her connections are thinking of pitching her straight into Gr.1 company shows how highly they regard her. 14/1 was a fair price after the Newbury win. She's not short of speed, but she's also likely to stay further than a mile next season, certainly 10f, but whether she will get the Oaks trip remains to be seen. Likely to be seen next either in the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile or (if they choose the more conservative path) the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes.

31 fillies remain in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes next weekend. We'll have a better idea of running plans tomorrow. The stand-out filly for that race is Raffle Prize. The others that catch the eye are the French filly Tropbeau (see my earlier posting) and Etoile (off the track since her debut win in a Gr.3 at Naas in May). Most of the other entries have had their limitations exposed in weaker-looking Group races.

12 fillies remain in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes on Friday. Power betting on the race: 13/8 Daahyeh, 5 Blissful, 6 Under The Stars, 8 Cloak Of Spirits, 10 bar. Another uninspiring race on paper. Blissful is an interesting contender: nowhere near classic standard on what we've seen so far (on the latest of her five starts she won a Listed race by a nose), but she's progressive and is a full sister to Mars and Gustav Klimt, so there should be plenty more to come from her next season.

At this stage, I have Quadrilateral and Tropbeau against the field.
By:
jamesp
When: 23 Sep 19 12:35
15 fillies remain in Saturday's Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes. Raffle Prize, Tropbeau and Etoile all hold their ground. Awaiting news about firm running plans.
By:
Figgis
When: 23 Sep 19 13:44
The stand-out filly for that race is Raffle Prize

Yes, I reckon she's already up to average Guineas winning standard, but, like you, think she's probably more of a sprinter. She clearly has a very strong chance on Saturday, but she's going to have to be very tough to put up another top performance again, so for that reason alone I wouldn't back her.
By:
jamesp
When: 24 Sep 19 12:53
Cheveley Park Stakes betting (best odds available at time of writing): 9/4 Raffle Prize, 9/2 Daahyeh, 5/1 Tropbeau, 9/1 Living In The Past, 12/1 Dark Lady, Etoile, Millisle, 16/1 bar. With Daahyeh having the option of running in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes on Friday (which looks a more sensible option) and Tropbeau not certain to be suited by the drop back in trip, this looks a good opportunity for Raffle Prize and 9/4 looks a fair price at this stage (though I won't be backing her, as I'm looking for a big run from Tropbeau to enhance her Guineas claims).
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 24 Sep 19 14:46
thanks james could you if possdible put up a list of possibles for the middle park ? thank you
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 24 Sep 19 14:54
etoile has questions to answer stepping markedly up in grade but interesting that they aimed so  high on her debut  and a big price too. will wait till nearer day but has the makings of a very interesting race if most stand their  ground .
By:
jamesp
When: 24 Sep 19 16:37
thanks james could you if possible put up a list of possibles for the middle park ? thank you
Latest betting is on the separate Middle Park Stakes thread.
By:
jamesp
When: 25 Sep 19 14:36
Nine fillies will go to post for the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes on Friday: 13/8 Daahyeh, 7/1 Blissful, Under The Stars, Cloak Of Spirits, 8/1 Festival Day, 10/1 Stylistique, 25/1 Hot Touch, 33/1 Alabama Whitman, 50/1 Alash Orda.
Nothing can be ruled out with any confidence. I'm half-tempted to take a look at the complete rag Alash Orda, stablemate of the favourite, who made a promising start at Salisbury, or Alabama Whitman, who was unsuited by the very soft ground in France last time. Daahyeh will be seen by many as a 'good thing', following her 2nd in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, but she might be worth taking on here.
By:
jamesp
When: 26 Sep 19 18:11
11 fillies have been confirmed for the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes on Saturday, which will hopefully lead to a shake-up in the Guineas betting (following so many inconclusive juvenile fillies' races this year). Latest best odds: 11/8 Raffle Prize, 9/2 Tropbeau, 7/1 Living In The Past, 10/1 Etoile, 14/1 Dark Lady, Millisle, 16/1 Nurse Barbara, 22/1 Tango, 25/1 Nina Bailarina, 33/1 Lil Grey, 100/1 Moon Of Love.
Etoile will surely be a bit rusty and in need of the run after more than four months off the track (and just one career start), and she is likely to find the 6f trip on the sharp side (her dam was a 10f performer by Sadler's Wells), but she remains a very interesting prospect. The favourite Raffle Prize will be hard to beat if still in the same form she showed earlier in the season, but I'm hoping for a big run from French filly Tropbeau to encourage connections to give her a prep in the Prix Imprudence in the spring ahead of a tilt at the Guineas. I'm a bit worried about the drop back to 6f, following three victories over 7f, but she's not short of speed and should give a good account. The Lowther form of Living In The Past doesn't look good enough (winning time was nothing special, the third let the form down at Salisbury). Dark Lady and Millisle don't look up to winning in this class. Lightly raced Nurse Barbara (supplemented for this race), however, is interesting back at 6f and certainly can't be ruled out.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 26 Sep 19 18:29
Raffle Prize for me to win the Cheveley Park.
By:
dunlaying
When: 27 Sep 19 11:50
I agree Feltfair . Anything better than 1/1 is value .
By:
jamesp
When: 27 Sep 19 14:27
Under The Stars finished a length closer to Daahyeh than she managed to do in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, but they more or less reproduced their Curragh form, and with five-times-raced maiden Stylistique (officially rated 97 beforehand) close up in second, the form of today's Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes doesn't look anywhere near Guineas class. Yet another fillies' pattern race where the front four have finished in a heap. The winner reportedly may head next to the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.
By:
jamesp
When: 28 Sep 19 13:56
Very happy with that performance by Tropbeau in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes, as she was allowed to cruise home in third after meeting trouble in running at a crucial moment. She was clearly second best on the day (she would have finished in front of Raffle Prize if she hadn't met interference) and I'd be confident about her reversing form with the winner Millisle over a longer trip. Millisle (by Starspangledbanner) and Raffle Prize are speedily bred and unlikely to get a mile. Tropbeau is the one to take out of the race and I imagine they will aim to bring her back in the Prix Imprudence next spring, followed by the Guineas. She's not completely guaranteed to get the mile, but she has three wins over 7f and looks likely to get the trip. The winning time must have been a race record (1:09.39), it's certainly the fastest for the race in the last 38 years (helped by the tailwind), the previous record during this period was 1:09.94 by Serious Attitude.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 28 Sep 19 14:06
Tropbeau the only one to take out of the race - good early tip JaemsP.  33/1 at least twice what she should be and I have availed myself.
By:
jamesp
When: 28 Sep 19 14:28
The performances of Earthlight and Golden Horde in the Middle Park Stakes, further enhancing the value of Raffle Prize's earlier form in the Prix Morny, makes me even more confident about Tropbeau. The winning time for the Middle Park (1:09.31) was only fractionally faster than the Cheveley Park. 33/1 about Tropbeau for the Guineas is remarkably good value!
By:
jamesp
When: 28 Sep 19 15:05
Having said that Millisle is unlikely to get a mile, as she's by the sprinter Starspangledbanner out of an Indian Ridge mare, and having wrongly predicted that she wouldn't be good enough to win the Cheveley Park (after she was narrowly beaten at Salisbury last time)(!), I've taken a closer look at her pedigree. There's actually plenty of stamina on the dam's side of her family, so it would be folly to rule her out on the grounds of suspect stamina. She wasn't stopping at the line at the end of a fast-run 6f and she looks sure to get 7f. A small saver at 40/1 (a remarkable price about a Group 1 winner) has been added to my 33/1 bets on Tropbeau and 14/1 Quadrilateral. It's hard to understand how she managed to get beaten at Salisbury last time by Dark Lady (who finished over 5 lengths behind her this afternoon). The Racing Post handicapper rates this the best performance by a juvenile filly so far this season: Millisle 116, Raffle Prize 113, Love 111, Tropbeau 110, Daahyeh 110.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 29 Sep 19 17:41
your guineas threads are well written and you seem to write about all the key races and runners, so well done. was reading the timeform preview today and they had millisle joint 2nd with dark lady on 119 time figure for the cheveley park race, raffel prize was 124, havent seen the race yet, with favourite slow away,
the winner was entitled to run a big race on on those ratings.
By:
smithyads1
When: 30 Sep 19 16:50
Jamesp, I would be interested in your views on khayzaraan who appears at 16s in some lists. Not quoted with many of the main books though. Looks to have been impressive in winning a few minor races in France. Any idea where she goes next ?
By:
jamesp
When: 30 Sep 19 17:48
As I mentioned in an earlier post, Khayzaraan holds an entry in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac next weekend. We'll find out on Wednesday whether she's likely to take part. She's clearly a very nice type. You can see her winning performances on the France Galop website.
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 01 Oct 19 16:36
Millisle -poor Salisbury form
Trainer has said she had a pre race drug test at the course which upset her
Thought drug tests were only after the race.

Wink
By:
jamesp
When: 02 Oct 19 12:18
55 original entries for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac were whittled down to 10 remaining entries this morning (there is a supplementary entry stage tomorrow):
Fee Historique (H.Shimizu); Marieta (M.Delcher Sanchez); Nunzia (F.Vermeulen); Bionic Woman (A.Fabre); Flighty Lady (G.Hernon); Kenlova (P.Bary); Tango (A.O'Brien); Savarin (A.Fabre); Albigna (Mrs J.Harrington); Raven's Cry (P.Twomey)
Andre Fabre's unbeaten filly Savarin, a daughter of multiple Group 1 winner Sarafina, narrowly won the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale (the traditional prep race for this) in a blanket finish (RPR 100) with just over a length covering the first six home (including Flighty Lady in 3rd, Nunzia in 5th and Kenlova in 6th). The form of that race doesn't look great, and it's anyone's guess which one will prevail this time, but the winner Savarin is lightly raced and open to plenty of improvement. Marieta was runner-up to Tropbeau in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados, but she was comfortably beaten there and Fabre (trainer of Tropbeau) should know whether his filly has the measure of that rival. Fabre also runs Bionic Woman (for Godolphin): she quickened up nicely to win a 7f maiden at Saint-Cloud, but this represents a big rise in class. Tango has been kept busy this season and has been found wanting (despite the adoption of different riding tactics and various headgear) in five successive races at Gr.2 and Gr.1 level, most recently in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes, but this looks a substandard Gr.1 and she should be there or thereabouts. Albigna finished a head in front of Tango last time in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes (after a 79-day break) and may well be able to confirm that form. Raven's Cry was found wanting in a Listed race last time and looks outclassed. Overall, a disappointing turnout for this normally informative Gr.1 event. Andre Fabre appears to hold a strong hand with a couple of very promising and lightly raced fillies, but on the evidence so far I doubt whether there's a future 1000 Guineas winner in the line-up.
By:
jamesp
When: 02 Oct 19 17:45
Khayzaraan was taken out of the Prix Marcel Boussac this morning but holds an alternative engagement in the Gr.3 Prix des Reservoirs at Deauville on 23 October. This Gr.3 race rarely has any bearing on the 1000 Guineas, but it looks a sensible next step for Freddy Head's exciting filly.
By:
jamesp
When: 02 Oct 19 23:01
Latest TF ratings (for the best performers in September): 115 Millisle, 113 Raffle Prize, 109p Tropbeau, 108p Love, 106p Quadrilateral, 106 Daahyeh
By:
jamesp
When: 03 Oct 19 11:11
There was one supplementary entry for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac this morning: Plegastell (E.Monfort), a daughter of Planteur, winner of both her starts in the provinces, most recently a Listed race at Craon. Raven's Cry was taken out of the race this morning, leaving ten probable runners.
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