Nunthorpe Stakes (23rd York 15:35)

What would we do without your amazing insights.

"Ten Sovereigns is very exciting to watch and he has been doing everything right lately. We have been very happy with him since the July Cup. He has improved physically and mentally since Newmarket and he is in a very good place at the moment. He is a lovely, low-moving horse and we could not be any happier with him," O'Brien said.

But what about the sub 11 sec furlongs?
I think there's a decent chance TS will regress from the July Cup.

id like to see battaash give ten sovereigns a tough race, maybe hes just not as good at york, mabs cross has run well at york, its a horse i like and im still
waiting for soldiers call to win a group 1 race someday.

A conundrum for backers of the two shorties: A horse that has never won at this track (Battaash) vs another (Ten Sovereigns) who's never run over this distance. A result for bookies beckon, I reckon.

If Battaash and Ten Sovereigns both ran to their very best form I would have them dead heating at these weights. Personally I have no worries about Battaash at York. When he was beaten as a 3yo he had just put up a couple of back to back peak performances and I remember saying before the race he could probably run below his best. Last year he was over the top, as he went to Longchamp afterwards and was still below form. I also don't have any worries about TS regarding the trip. He's shown he has enough speed for it.

I do, however, have some other concerns about both horses. In my opinion Battaash has never really improved since he was a 3yo, and as a 5yo now I think he could go off the boil at any time. His latest run was definitely below the form he is capable of. Whether that was a sign of a decline for the rest of the season or a minor blip due to earlier exertions that he can now recover from I just don't know. So normally TS would be the safer bet as he comes into the race having shown top form last time out. My problem with him though is I don't have him making any improvement since his 2yo season. I had him down as a very fast 2yo and in my view he simply replicated that form last time out. When a horse hasn't improved from 2 to 3 I'm always doubtful of it giving a repeat performance.

Mabs Cross has a couple of pieces of form that would see her go close with the allowance but most of her form leaves her a bit to find with the front two in the betting. As the market suggests, there is a gulf in class between the top three and the rest, who either need to make huge improvement (very unlikely) or hope that the front three all perform below par (not probable but more likely than the former). I couldn't confidently nail my colours to the mast of any of the front three in the market because of the reasons given. However I would say that even given the doubts Battaash and Mabs Cross are not under priced. A lay here is a bit risky because it doesn't leave a lot running for you but if TS goes anything lower than 6/4 I will be laying him.

I've never opposed Stradivarius since he won last year's Gold Cup and have even backed him a few times, but I think today he is vulnerable for the first time since then.

Yes, the penalty is definitely a concern as I'm not convinced he had as much in hand as the reports say he had. Dettori's gesturing made it look that way, in my view. I also think that he's managed to hold his form for a long period where a lot of other equally decent horses haven't been able to is because he's been involved in a lot of slowly run races where he has been able to use his finishing kick without taking too much out of himself. By my reckoning last time out was the first time he's had to run fast since winning the Yorkshire Cup last year. It will be interesting to see how he comes out of that race. I think the opposition should be trying to make another decent test of it today as the best way of finding him out.

I might just do a bit of trading.