Juddmonte International (21st Aug York)

Reading one of your pseudo intellectual diatribes is like pulling teeth.

I rarely bet antepost these days but anything 20/1 + Lord Glitters each way is surely a bet here...

His trainer states he's going to run which is a good start.All his best mile form is over the stiff,straight mile at Ascot, he beat Mustashry cosily over 9f in a Group 2 at York last summer and had the Nassau winner over 4 lengths behind him over 9f in the Group 1 in Dubai - also, at a lower level admittedly, but his 10f form in France before he joined O'Meara reads 2112 so the evidence suggests the trip won't be an issue.

I'm not sure the race will cut up that much but it's well documented that Enable is unlikely to run and I wonder whether AOB will run any more than 2 of his 4.

If Crystal Ocean brings his A game then he is obviously the most likely winner but he had a hard race in the King George - I also think he's slightly better over 12f (even though his only Group 1 win was in the Eclipse).

That's it really...

^ Prince Of Wales not Eclipse ffs

I have had a small e/w play on LG at 25/1 too.

Did m3 a big favour at Ascot after flopping in the Lockinge so hopefully he can bounce back again after running too bad to be true at a Goodwood.

pseudo intellectual

what the f@ck makes this guy think he is anywhere near intellectual level?

bungle, wac

Japan and Circus Maximus have been declared. Interesting!

Crystal Ocean is the obvious choice but , like Rease , I feel he is better at 12f . Elaarqam impressed me last time and I think he is e/w value at 10/1 .

Lord Glitters 25/1 when I backed him, available at 40/1 this morning - so gone in again each way...

Good example of why I don't bet antepost - I can't time the markets correctly

Had a little on Japan.

Obviously, at leat to me, if Crystal Ocean runs to his very best he will win. However, as good as the race was to watch, I had his King George run a few pounds below his very best. That form would still just about make him the one to beat here but I think once the rot begins to set in with these older horses they're going to have more bad days than good, so I'm happy to pass on him at this price. On the face of it, it seemed as though Elarqam put up a career best last time and a literal reading of that form gives him a decent chance today, but my reading of that race is the others were below par.

Most people have this year's Derby as a below average renewal and I agree, but whereas the general opinion seems to be that Japan improved to win at Ascot, for me he showed nothing more than his Derby form. It's dangerous to try to pin down a 3yo like this as they can make rapid improvement, but I have to say up to now I have Japan pegged as a bit of a donkey

I don't think King Of Comedy is anything special, but if we don't see the very best from CO he probably won't have to be. I reckon he would've won the SJP off a faster pace and assuming he stays this trip I think he has a better chance than his odds.

That wasn't CO's best but Japan still not bad for a donkey . Hands up, I never saw any of his form as good enough for this. Well done Feltfair and any other Japan backers.

They went too steady early on and the flat course at York didn't help CO. They all finished too close for my liking.

Like to see Japan go straight to the Arc and get a decent draw.

a decent performance by japan there,  on an upward curve  and step back up to 12f wont hurt  either . straight to arc and bang in the mix .

hopefully straight to arc^^^

Crystal Ocean has definitely regressed but it was still a decent performance form Japan. It's true they didn't go mad with the pace early on but in my view they didn't go too slow as to impact the result. When they finish strung out like chasers it's usually because they went too fast early rather than just right. I wouldn't go overboard about the winning performance but I would rate him on par with an average Derby winner and he's obviously a much better horse than I thought. We know he stays so I would say that form gives him a reasonable chance of winning an Arc in an average year. The one big negative for me is he looked to have a pretty hard race here. I know O'Brien has said he's never going to win by far (well he would wouldn't he), but to me that wasn't a horse just doing enough and I'd be a bit wary of how he's going to come out of this.

I'm not taken with the performance of Japan today despite beating Crystal Ocean (previous hard race/proximity of others today), and backing him for The ARC at 29 here (a fun punt) some time ago; his run in the France spoke more to me than this victory; his King Edward win beating non-entities was expected given his Derby form.

I do not think Gosden will lose any sleep tonight if Enable is as good as her 1st ARC triumph; Japan might not even beat Sottssas who won the French Derby with ease beating a "probable" Guineas winner Persian King had the latter turned up at Newmarket.

Then again horse racing is mainly about opinions.

I'm not sure CO has regressed F. He definitely ran below par yesterday in my opinion but I think that was due to exceptional circumstances. In fact I also think there is a possibility that the winner ran below par as well in these circumstances but that has to be proven moving forward. Fast ground, slow early pace, fast track and Ballydoyle tactics were all against CO. Circus Maximus set off in front and every time Doyle pressured him or threatened to go past him to increase the pace he wouldn't let him so Doyle had to choose between a long early battle with CM, a miler, which would have been crazy or wait until the home turn. A clear tactic planned by Ballydoye. I don't know if Stoute or the owner had a suitable pacemaker to counter the Ballydoyle tacts but until these top trainers start taking them on at their own game there is always the possibility of this happening.
After the Eclipse I said I hoped Magical would take on Enable at York and this time make the running. She was beaten by Enable and CO giving them first run and I would like to see them change tactics. The inclusion of a possible pacemaker today brings that into question but it might just be another Ballydoyle tactic. I think on this ground and a fast track will suit Magical going from the front. There appears to be not much between them so a change of tactics may bring about the necessary difference.