National Hunt 19/20 Big Races Thread

Pertemps
Sunset Showdown 0.5pt ew @ 50/1 (Unibart 5plcs 1/5)

Marsh - Midnight Shadow 0.9pts win 22’s (B365)

Pertemps - Dream Berry 1pt win 16’s ( Various)

Stayers - Tobefair 1.5pts ew 4pls 50’s (Bvic)

Kim Muir - Cloth Cap 3pt win 16’s (Various)

Stoney Mountain 1.5pt ew 7plc pp

Robin Des Foret 1.5pt bf sp
Siruh Du Lac 1.5pt bf sp

Milan Native 1.5pt bf sp

Stoney 33/1 ^

Pertemps
Skandiburg 1pt win @ 10/1 (VC)

Marsh - Itchy Feet 1pt win 9/2 var

Plate
Death Duty 0.5 pt ew @ 22/1
Robin Des Foret 0.5pt ew @ 16/1
Both B3.6.5 5plc 1/4

Marsh
Itchy Feet 1pt win @ 9/2 (B3.6.5)

1-30 chelt

Itchy Feet 0.5pt

Pertemps
Dream Berry 0.8pts Win 14’s
Kansas City Chief 0.5pts ew 7pls 50’s (PP)

2-10 chelt

Royal Thief 0.5pt

Tout Est Permis 0.5pt

Stoney Mountain 0.25pt

Sunset Showdown 0.25pt

Ryanair
Frodon 1pt win 6’s (Lads)
Shattered Love 0.5pt win 28’s (Koral)

2-50 chelt

Shattered Love 0.5pt

Aso 0.5pt

Duc Des Genievres 0.25pt

what's your thoughts on the ground today noc?

3-30 chelt

Penhill 0.5pt

City Island 0.5pt

Ronald Pump 0.25pt

Afternoon GI

Not sure there is too much good/sft judging by the times compared to standard.

Stiffer course and headwind might be a factor,very fair for all of them at the moment.

What was Sheehan doing Ryanair,same comments for Tommy on Ronald Pump

4.10 Imperial Presence 80/1, 3.65 1pt ew Robin De Foret 1pt ew 16/1, 3.65

Brown chase - Not another Muddle .5pt ew 20/1 6plcs Sky

Brown Advisory
Spiritofthegames 1.2pt 16’s
Livelovelaugh 0.8pt 40’s
Snow Falcon 0.9pt 35’s
Imperial Presence 0.4pt 80’s
All win various

4-10 chelt

Death Duty 0.5pt

Snow Falcon 0.5pt

Springtown Lake 0.5pt

Highway One O One 0.25pt

Charmant 0.25pt

cheers noc

Mares Nvc
Mount Ida 0.5pt ew @ 25/1 (B3.6.5 4plcs 1/5)

4-50 chelt

Mount Ida 0.5pt

Ard Abhainn 0.5pt

Yukon Lil 0.5pt

Rhythm Divine 0.25pt ew

Mares Novice - Midnights Gift 0.4pts ew 4pls 100’s (Various)

Hook Up 1.5pt e/w 40/1 4plc pp

Aramon 2pt 8/1 b365
Moyhaayed 2pts 12/1 bs

Cobblers Way 2pt 14/1 b365

Santini 2pt 5/1 ub
Lostintranslation 2pt 8/1 gen

Minella Rocco 2pt 11/2 gen

Two Taffs 2pt 20/1 gen
Us and Them 1pt 25/1 coral

Espoir Du Romay 2pt 25/1 b365
Umbrigado 1pt 20/1 gen

Kim Muir
The Young Master 0.8pts ew 66’s (B365)
Go Another One 0.5pt win 50’s
Deise Aba 0.9pt win 9’s
Both Various

5-30 chelt

Plan Of Attack 0.5pt

Kilfillum Cross 0.5pt

Cloth Cap 0.5pt

Bob Mahler 0.5pt

A winner would be nice . Won the pp today though, sadly just a 10p line

-3.65 / 1 IP

Penhill -1
Bacardys +2.8
Kilfilum Cross -0.5
Saint Sonner -1
Sunset Sundown -1
Skandiburg -1
Death Duty -1
Robin Des Foret -1
Itchy Feet -1
Mount Ida -1

Antipost
Frodon -1

-9.35 / 0 IP

This is tough going guys !

WP GI ......On the pot,not to be sniffed at.

I,m with Facts today,bloodbath this end.

One day left to re-dress the balance,some tremendous finnishes first 3 days,quality racing.

Cheltenham


Final Day

2.10 Ciele De Neige       2 pts win 8/1 b 3 6 5

5.30 The Bosses Oscar  2 pts win 12/1 lad

have a mare here too

well done to Miller backing Imperial Aura at 25/1 sometime ago on here

Triumph - Allmankind 3pts 9/2, 3.65

Martin Pipe
Doctor Duffy 0.5pt ew @ 40/1 (Unibart 5plcs 1/5)

Triumph - A Wave Of The Sea 0.9pts win 12’s (Various)

-9.5
Itchy Feet -1
Not another Muddle-1
-11.5

Well Done Miller ..... Cracking Ante-Post bet

CVB  "Milan Native 1.5pts bfsp" .......Shocking Ommission ,lovely hit.

Day 4 looks just as difficult,there will be clues from the first 3 days,finding them is the hard bit.

GI ...... Can you send todays placepot selections over once sorted,many thanks

wd winners so far this week.

also have cancelled out of my Lostintranslation bet at par (he's still 8/1 gen)

Gold Cup
Clan Des Obeaux 2pts 15/2 gen


Feel like Clan improved this season and coming fresh with the better ground will make the difference. Plus Tizzard having poor festival.

County - Zanza 1pt ew 40/1. 3.65

Triumph
Solo 2pt win @ 7/2 (B3.6.5)

County
Stolen Silver 0.5pt win @ 14/1 (B3.6.5)

Albert Bartlett
Monkfish 1pt win @ 13/2 (B3.6.5)

WD cvb with Milan Native although I was really hoping the gutsy Kilfilum Cross was doing enough !

wd CVb

Albert - Thyme Hill 1.5pt ew 11/2, 3.65

wp CV/Miller

The Gold Cup is currently doing my head in.....

Foxhunters
Dylrow 0.5pt ew @ 125/1 (B3.6.5 5plcs 1/5)

1-30 chelt

Burning Victory 0.5pt

Cerberus 0.5pt

Hook Up 0.25pt

A wave Of The Sea 0.25pt

Midlands National

Petite Power 2pts 8/1 wh

2-10 chelt

Aramon 0.5pt

Buildmeupbuttercup 0.5pt

Elusive Belle 0.25pt

Stolen Silver 0.25pt

Well played Noc.

WP yesterday CVB and Miller.

County
Mohaayed 0.5pts win 11’s
Moon Over Germany 0.9pts win 33’s
Scaramanga 0.5pts ew 50’s 6pls
All Various

Albert Bartlett
Janidil 0.5pt win  20’s
Redford Road 0.9pt win 33’s
House Island 0.4pt ew 80’s 4pls
All various

2-50 chelt

Sempo 0.5pt

Cobblers Way 0.5pt

Ramses De Teillee 0.5pt

Gold Cup
Delta Work 1pt win @ 11/2 (888)

Nice one noc.

Grand Annual - Lisp 1.5pt ew 15/2 billies

Gold Cup
Delta Work 1pt 11-2
Chris’s Dream 0.7 28’s
Both win various

WP GI ....About time

Gold Cup

Clan des obeaux 1pt

Presenting Percy 0.5pt

Monalee 0.25pt

Chriss Dream 0.25pt

Foxhunter
Law of Gold 0.5pt ew @ 33/1 (5plcs 1/5)

ta noc, too little too late I think

Boum. Needed!

WP Sint and Mac

Foxhunter - Top Wood 0.9pts ew 5 Places (Various)

Sint

4-10

Caid De berlais 0.5pt

Alcala 0.25pt ew

Dylrow 0.25pt ew

minella rocco 0.5pt

Grand Annual
Paloma Blue 1pt win @ 10/1 (B3.6.5)

wd sint,

Grand Annual
Eclair De Beaufeu 1pt win 7’s
Winter Escape 0.5pts EW 5pl 40’s
Both Various

4-50

Two taffs 0.5pt

Us and them 0.5pt

Winter Escape 0.5pt

Ballywood 0.5pt

MPCJH
Flash the Steel 0.5pt win @ 20/1 (B3.6.5)

Martin Pipe
Column of Fire 1.5pts win 7’s
Great White Shark 0.5pt ew 50’s (6pl)
Both PP

5-30 chelt   Final Darts

Escaria Ten 0.5pt

Great White Shark 0.5pt

Everybreathyoutake 0.5pt

My Sister Sarah 0.5pt

B/f - 23 points

Cheltenham

Tuesday        +16
Wednesday   -  3
Thursday.       -  6
Friday.            -  4

Festival. + 3 pts

Very disappointing. Relooking at my ' rules ' I  could/should have done better ! Still not a loss.

C/F.  -  20 pts

good first 3 days and all given back today. Mainly because staking went wildly out of hand for no reason!!

Season has been one of amazing bad luck too often and they will happen. The scale of horses trading 1/10th or 1/20th their sp and getting beaten. Can't have mega seasons like 2 years ago sandwiched between normal ones without one like this.

Probably my biggest problem this season is the simple fact you cannot assume form is permanent. 2 seasons ago lots of hard work was put in and lots of luck came too. This season a fraction of the work has gone in and the bad luck has hit.

Staking has been a complete mess too. Very little variation in levels despite hugely different levels of confidence in some selections.

My main lesson to take from this year is you absolutely have to put the work in. Too many bets this season I look back on and they've had 5 mins of looking at a card. Rather than skip a weekend because I'm busy I'll lazy bet and get what I deserve.

Reason this season will be loss making is because of complacency. With a dose of arrogance that I've cracked it.

Very well done to Noc and others who've had a good season. Apologies for being AWOL on banter and congratulations for big wins. It's been a uniquely busy time personally

Correction.

Tuesday at Cheltenham was a 15 pt profit not 16pts. So + 2pts overall.

C/F. - 21pts

Cvbryne

Interesting comments.

For what it's worth, I learnt a long time ago about the dangers of being indisciplined with time, selection process and staking irregularity.
I've now  retired ,  so I have time to keep proper betting records. I've also developed a set of rules to identify key indicators
that point to potential bets. And I only bet in Handicaps C1 and C2 only.
My stakes are a set % of a betting bank. A point equates to a set value. Each selection carries the same stake. Any emotion / ' gut ' feeling is taken away by strict adherence to the required key indicators. The only variance is a doubling of normal stake, usually in big handicap races at festivals, eg Cheltenham ( NH ) or Ascot/Goodwood (,Flat )

I know the ' clinical' way I approach to selection, and betting won't appeal to many. But I'm after long term financial gain, and that's what gives me focus. I still enjoy my racing - win or lose. My aim is to prove to myself that money can be made out of this game .

It's THE danger I think Facts.

Staying handicap chases roi is superb, and any h/c chase 2m5f+, followed by graded races. Identified two years ago and wrote about it in post season analysis.

Yet I had 3pts on a 4yo mare in the Triumph today I spent 4 mins looking at!! I won both staying handicaps at Cheltenham this year!! 1.5pts on the 2nd one

You're exactly on the money. Discipline. I can still find value in races I can see from the facts of having 4 years of detailed records. But treating a 4yo hurdle the same as a 3m+ class 1 handicap chase from a staking perspective is lacking fundamental discipline. Plain and simple

B/F +25.13   IP 22.4

Not going to include Antepost losers already included in running totals.
Dream Berry included twice in error, left out smaller bet

No Comment -4
Captain Guiness -0.8
Champion Hurdle -3.4
Trainwreck -1.8
Coral Cup -3.6
Midnight Shadow -0.9
Dream Berry -1
Tobefair -3
Kim Muir -6
Ryanair -1.5
Plate -3.3
Midnights Gift -0.8
A Wave Of The Sea -0.9
Gold Cup -1.7
County -2.4
Top Wood -1.8
Albert Bartlett 2.2
Grand Annual -2
Column of Fire -1.5

NRNB
McFabulous +0.9
What A Moment +0.9
Politologue +1.4
No Comment +3

Put The Kettle On +16
Kansas City Chief +8.54
Dynamite Dollars  +8.32
Great White Shark +4.5

+25.79  IP 1.9

Thoughts....

Touching on the discipline side of things, usual problem of too many bets for the sake of it.

I’ve no problem with most of those losers, but these ones, were madness....

Trainwreck -1.8
Kim Muir -6
Plate -3
Albert Bartlett -2.2
Winter Escape -1.6
Ryanair -1.5

Trainwreck - I had only one fancy, Galvin. Why the need to put more up for Trsinwreck than I did for Galvin, god only knows.

Kim Muir - My favourite betting race of the festival, but it was all about No Comment or What A Moment in the lead up, So quite how I managed to squander 6pts on backups just because I like the race......amateur hour.

Plate - I obviously bet more on 2.4m+ Hcap Chases than anything else, but my record in this is drastic, should be a 1pt win only race with one selection

Albert Bartlett - Same as Plate

Winter Escape - An old favourite, but he’s rarely delivered, and I knew deep down he was miles not good enough here, but I still bet him. Should be a 0.1pt bet I keep to myself.

Ryanair - Bit of aftertiming, but I bet A Plus Tard 25’s last March, and laid off in December for early profit. I didn’t really fancy Frodon or Shattered Love, so certainly didn’t need to bet at all, never mind put them up here.

16.1 unnecessary points wasted there. I’ve touched on this before, threads like these make me have bets for the sake of bets. Madness, it has to stop.

+62.01 2 IP

mr fish / itchy feet -1.5
pertemps -1.5
ryanair -1.25   (shatt love 0 a/post)
stayers -1.25   (penhill 0 a/post)
plate -2
mares novice -2
kim muir -2     

THURSDAY -11.5

cere/hook up/a w o t sea -1
burn vict +7.06    (15.12)
county -1.5
a bart -1.5
gold cup -2
foxhunter -2
g annual -2
m pipe -2

FRIDAY -4.94

+45.57 0 IP


Hugely refreshing posts above.

18 hour days for me over the last week,a huge meeting in terms of commitment.

A big healthy deficit to show for that work,not the first time I may add,over many years.

Letting the dust settle is my normal way of going.

Expectations and reality are very different ends of the spectrum.

This sport has an uncanny knack of finding out any of our flaws.

As the words of wisdom above suggest,you have to start with yourself.

We all visit those dark places,sometimes we need to go there,however hard that can appear.

Unsure how the rest of the season will pan out,something we have no control over.

Pleasure as always,GL for whatever remains.

Well said noc

Indeed. Terrible week personally, but plenty of good bets put up on here, vwd to those who have come out ahead. Thinning out the bad bets is the key, I have to bet on every race at the fezz, cannot help it, something I never do at other meetings. It's only once a year......

Mullins got his first winner in the bumper yet ended up with 7 winners and was Champion trainer, if it wasn't for his rotten luck the first couple of days he could have had around 10. The continued dominance of him and Elliot is remarkable and I don't see it changing. Hendo will always have a few, but Nicholls had no runners on day 1, and had no runners in the Supreme or Ballymore, and only a 50/1 poke in the Albert Bartlett, not good; his best horses are predominantly French breds. Mullins and Elliot are getting all the good Irish raw material. Other trainers are no where, apart from getting the odd good horse.

3.35 Uttoxeter
Captain Drake 1pt win @ 8/1 (B3.6.5)

Midlands National - Joe Farrell 1.8pts win 14’s (Various)

2:00 Kempton - 2pt Mcfabulous 9/4 3.65

3:50 Kempton 1.5pt ew Flic Ou Voyou 7/2 billies

I thought I'd cracked it when Put the kettle on & The Conditional went in. Back down to earth for the next 3 days. Well done to everyone who came out in front.

Midlands National- Petit Power 11/2 var 1pt win

What do you think will happen at Aintree, abandoned or behind closed doors?

Postponed

2-25 uttox

Coudy Glen 0.5pt

Aye Aye Charlie 0.5pt

I think postponed as well

WP Sint

Sint

2-40 kempton

Coeurr De Lion 0.33pt

Garo De Juilley 0.33pt

Goodbye Dancer 0.33pt

3-15 kempton

Solomon Grey 0.5pt

Mercy Mercy Me

3-35 uttox

Petite Power 1pt

Potters Legend 0.5pt

Midlands National - 0.5 pts win De Rasher Counter 10’s (Various)

Petite Power -1

-12.5

Nothing tomorrow, hopefully a wee break now....

Joe Farrell -1.8
De Rasher Counter -0.5

C/F +23.69   IP 1.9

-9.35 / 0 IP

Doctor Duffy -1
Solo -2
Thatsy -1
Stolen Silver -0.5
Monkfish +6.5
Dylrow -1
Delta Work -1
Law Of Gold -1
Paloma Blue -1
Flash The Steel-0.5
Captain Drake -1

-12.85 / 0 IP

+45.57

c glen/a a char -1
cdl / gdj / gd -1
sol g/m m me -1
pet pow /pot legend -1.5

+41.07 / 0 IP

1410 Jaime Somers 0.4pts EW 100’s (Various)

1510
Dallas Des Pictons 0.9 pts 10’s
Emily Moon 0.8pts 14’s
Both Win Various

Ulster National - It’s All Guesswork 2.7pt win 10’s (Boyles)

Ulster National - General Principle 0.9pts win 12’s (Various)

Morning all

Fab.......Tremendous place hit with JS,in a 7 grand race,sort of sums the season up,well done anyway.


Extraordinary times across the country,with darker times forecast for the weeks ahead.

Quite how racing can go ahead anywhere is beyond me,a safe society must come first.

Mid fifties,self employed,mrs noc is a trained nurse,I await the dreaded letter being "At Risk".

Our own issues are nothing compared to some people.

My heart goes out to those forced into situations way beyond their control,they deserve any help required.

We have two hard working children,both mid twenties,we worry as all parents do, how will they cope?

How do any of us prepare to self isolate for 12 weeks plus ?

Does that Isolated form study,over many years,at ridiculous hours,help in any small way ?

Enough doom and gloom.

It,s been a blast this end,over a number of seasons.

The eternal punting rollercoaster,experienced by all.

To everyone that contributes in anyway:

May you and your families stay safe and healthy.

Too many people to mention from my end,absolute pleasure as always.

Regards

Noc

Same to you noc.
Roll on the inevitable ' start  ' of the Flat Season , whenever that may be.??!

Will there be a new one guys? Looking to get involved this season

Stan, I’ll give Noc or CVB their place, as they normally start it. If not I’ll do one this afternoon

Crack on Fab ......currently tied up with the spindly legged things

Stan246