the king george ascot 12f group 1

Apology for setting up a similar thread thinking this race was this weekend.

Having seen the performance of Japan in France, and the horses he beat in the King Edward at Royal Ascot I'd agree the present lot of 3 yr old colts are much of a muchness nevertheless, they are still the best of their age group. However, the French Sottsass may prove to be the best overall.

I cannot see any other finale apart from the race is between Enable and Crystal Ocean (CO) - all things being equal; the former will triumph again unless CO has improved significantly. But, I'd not back Enable at this skinny price either on account of the opponents she beat last time.

Hopefully, at least one, if not more, of the informative questions below will be answered eg:-

1) is Enable back to her best eg 1st Arc triumph?
2) has Crystal Ocean improved from last season?
3) is the win of Sovereign in the Irish Derby was no fluke?

I cannot concur: The Irish Derby has too many holes eg Broome did not run his customary race (thus given a rest till the Voltigeur) as he'd beaten Sovereign twice easily prior; discrepancy between Norway and AVD was 11.75l (using their Epsom run as a guide) or AVD ran 11.75l below his Epsom form ie he ought to/could have finished 5.75l infront of Sovereign.

Come next saturday at Ascot I believe AVD will reverse placing with Sovereign, if the latter runs but betting is indicating fairly unlikely.

ah well just  anthony van **** then

anthony over 10/1 on here, has a derby winner ever been so long in the betting in king george, most times theyd be fav.What price ref point, generous , nashwan  in sat race with enable, i reckon theyd be fav

But he clearly is not Ref point , Generous , Nashwan nor Troy , Shergar , The Minstrel , Nijinski ......

Stable jock did not ride him at Epsom  .
They are all very similar level 3 year olds and even the weight allowance will not allow them to beat Enable Crystal Ocean , Waldgeist and Defoe.

Why is Fabre persisting with Waldgiest?

Getting a little Arsene Wengerish?

The Japanese old timer deserves some consideration for the weird bets ie the w/o markets and tricasts.

Anticipate Salouen and Hunting Horn setting the pace. Enable drawn on the wide outside will likely go forward and sit handy and then kick for home as per the Eclipse. Whether there is anything good enough in behind and avoiding trouble in running to get past I doubt.Crystal Ocean is the obvious candidate. Having said all that I have forsaken Enable at the price and have a had a foolhardy each way bet at a massive price on Magic Wand.

Hoping for a good race and no hard luck stories.

With the going hopefully getting soft I’ll have a little e/w bet on Waldgeist.

Fully expect Enable to win after a little battle with Crystal Ocean but if they get racing too soon it might set it up for something to come through late and Waldgeist looks the most likely to take advantage.

Str-forecast for me, Enable to beat Ocean.

I've already stated my thoughts that as an older filly without the allowance I don't consider any of Enable's victories as true Gp1 class. Last year it was a substandard Arc and this year's Eclipse was poor. In my view, despite having fewer runners and not getting the same publicity, last year's King George was a much better winning standard than the Arc, and if Enable had been there I'd have her finishing third.

Nonetheless, even though I had Crystal Ocean as having the beating of her I had no real intention of backing him for this. The plan was back him for the POW, job done, then leave him alone. As I'm not keen on following older horses when their improvement has levelled off, fearing a downturn usually isn't too far away. That all changed when I saw the time performance CO put up at Ascot. I have him improving 5lbs from last year. A significant amount, particularly for a 5yo where the improvement doesn't get swallowed up by any weight increase. In the last 10 years I have it the joint third fastest 10f performance. A huge effort for a horse always considered more of a 12f runner, unless we've all had him wrong for the last few years. In my view the Magical that turned up for the Eclipse was a half stone worse than the one who showed up for the POW. I'm not just punting CO as a value bet against the fav, I believe he is the most likely winner.

I'll leave the 'this will win' type comments to others, I prefer to think of chances in terms of percentages and odds. It doesn't matter how fast a horse ran last month I can never know for sure if it will repeat it the following month, or even ever again. All betting situations are unique, but in as much as you can group similar situations together I would expect a horse like this to have a 70% chance. So in my view not only should CO be fav instead of Enable he also should be a shorter price. Needless to say I'm having a decent bet

A good race in prospect with four possibles all with everything in their favour so no excuses on that count. It will also be an opportunity to see the last three generations competing over the right trip, right course and right going.
Enable was a good, top three-year-old with her allowances and the King George has seen many three-year-olds win decisively in the circumstances. But as an older horse she hasn't won so decisively but still should be good enough. Crystal Ocean took ages to win his Group 1 when given a great tactical ride by Frankie and I have never considered him a top Group 1 horse. The same goes for Waldgeist who hasn't been far behind Enable but I have never thought he was good enough to win a good KG. Anthony Van **** gets the allowances and that may be enough to win narrowly but the form is not strong. I looked long and hard to find something else but nothing has the form to win. I haven't had a bet but I expect Enable to be good enough. Frankie was pretty easy on her at Longchamp and Sandown.
It is about 14s on one of the top 4 wins but I will be more interesting how the different era's compare.

Well done Enable backers, can't crab that effort. I always thought that when really pushed by a proper Gp1 runner she'd struggle to find more, but find more she did. Very good.

Exactly as I predicted.

missed these posts,crystal ocean was seemingly was a decent price, only ever going to finish 2nd.

You are right Uncle, a great ride by Frankie. I think he always had the race covered and he always knew he had the upper hand and asked just at the end for that little extra. They finished as expected and I could see no excuses. Not a lot of hope with the three-year-olds on that showing. Stranger things have happened of course. With Waldgeist running to the Arc form of last season without any excuses and that has been considered not up to her past form but I really cannot see anything being able to beat her. I have already said though that if she heads for the Juddmonte and AOB runs Magical it could be interesting. But that is probably just clutching at straws.

He gave her one smack Howellsy then he knew he was always beating the 2nd. Great ride by Frankie.

That is the 64 million dollar question H. In the last half a furlong Frankie gave her a squeeze and she went ahead. It was the same in the Eclipse. We may find out more if she runs in the Juddmonte. York is a fast track so I think Frankie will need to get her into top gear earlier to cover any fast finishers or catch a fast horse in front of her. Today was a stamina test where he knew what he was sitting on and only had the horse just in front of him to beat at the end. The Juddmonte may be an entirely different scenario.

I'm not a time or figures man Figgis but I thought Waldgeist would have a better chance today than in the Prince Of Wales. He just lacks the turn of foot of the very best but he stays well and loves heavy going. If we got a proper heavy ground Arc he'd be a contender imo. Crystal Ocean finds that last fulong just a touch far imo.

I was gutted when ITV racing came on and it was dry and hadn't been raining all morning - I live near Northampton about 60 miles north and it rained non stop from 6.00am and is still raining now.

I recokon Enable won cosily and also had the worst of the draw (she travelle dfurther than anything else apparently) so should be marked up another two po three pounds on the bear result.

I'd expect her to miss York now, Gosden has so many others for the Yorkshire Oaks, and maybe that Kempton race could be an Arc prep again.

Figgis, hard to know either way. I'd be prepared to say Waldgeist improved on it. I've given him the same figure I gave for his Ganay win which ties in with CO's POW win nicely. Enable improved 2-3 lbs from Sandown and recorded her best figure since her 3yo days. I'm not sure it beats Poet's Word's run in this last year though, which I rated a few lbs higher.