John Smiths Cup - York July 13th

Having watched some videos I think UAE Prince is likely to be the main Varian runner so have had a good bet at 12/1 with a view to laying off on the day for a nice freebie.

After watching the Countryfile forecast for the week ahead I am getting more and more hopeful about Buzz.
Rain forecast Tuesday-Friday though amounts could be trivial for much of it, but hopefully it at least takes the sting out of the ground and good ground would be fine.

After saying Roger Varian was the key to the race it is interesting that it is his other entry Mountain Angel who has been all the rage in the market and is now as low as 6/1 in places. Interesting then that Buzz beat Mountain Angel at Newbury last September when giving him a pound. Buzz will be receiving 8lb on Saturday so his chance is there for all to see.
Will wait for the 5 day decs (Buzz currently needs 9 to drop out but I'll be amazed if he is balloted out) and will probably go in again nearer the day, especially if they get some decent rain.

Won't Atzeni be at Newmarket to ride Cape Byron in the July Cup? (he's ridden CB in all but two of his races).It might depend on what else Varian is running at either meeting I suppose.

It is so called Super Saturday so I'll be paying more attention to jockey bookings than usual, demand for the top jocks will be at a premium but conversely perhaps an opportunity for some of the journeymen or emerging talent to step into the limelight...

I must be honest I havenm't really paid any attenmtion to the July Cup and didn't realise Cape Byron would be stepping up to Group 1 company.
If Atzeni is at New'Mkt then that might explain why the same owners UAE Prince might be saved for another day despite looking to have an obvious chance.

All irrelevant anyway as Buzz is surely already home and hosed.

Race has cut up quite badly yet you can still get 20/1 on Buzz. Either I’m going mad or based on form (see above) it looks a crazy price, should be no bigger than 10’s, and personally I’d make him favourite.

With the weather looking helpful I’ve now tripled my stake - probably won’t be declared now.

The one I like is David Simcock's Bless Him who won the Brittania in 2017.I would've thought he's unlikely to get in though.

He made an eyecatching return in the Hambleton at the Dante Meeting and has run perfectly respectably twice since without troubling the judge. The step up in trip ought to suit based on both run style and pedigree - they could've entered him for the one mile handicap on Saturday's card but they have n't. 

He's also in the Golden Mile at Goodwood but the jury is out on whether that is his track and you're always a hostage to fortune with the draw and traffic issues in that race so I'd prefer him to take his chance here.

In any event he surely has a decent pot in him in a handicap this summer over 8-10f on fastish ground (I would n't be so keen if they get a lot of rain this week - I see they've suspended watering due to the forecast).

Agree that Bless Him may have a big race in him. I backed him at York and I rememebr thinking immediately they were plotting him for the Hunt Cup but he was rated too low to get a run.

He's been eyecatching on his other starts too and is definitely one to watch - trouble is he needs to win to get his rating up to get into some of the biog races. Mayvbe the Cambridgeshire would be a good target?

He may well yet sneak in at the bottom of the weights and is a definite saver if he does.

Buzz, Yep, rain forecast later in week, 20/1 way too big, maximum a fiver for me on Sportsbook though, just sent messages to mates in hope.

Cambridgeshire's a good shout for Bless Him, uncle.

Good luck with Buzz - I amgoing to hold fire until later in the week...

So much for the Countryfile forecast.
Two dry days to come so very quick ground on the cards which is potentially a massive negative for Buzz.

Oh well - won’t even get a run for my money.