The mid season break was all important. Can't imagine Saturday's race would've taken much out of her given the pace it was run at, in terms of final times I have it 12lbs below her very best. Assuming that she's giving them the right signals closer to the time I can't see them passing up the chance of an Arc, particularly as the last time they bagged the race it was with another 4yo filly.

47 days between her runs in the Eclipse and Yorkshire Oaks. I'd call almost 7 weeks a decent break in a short flat season. She was beaten at York but O'Brien said she was just ready to start again. Like most things he says there can be truth or it can be spin and the market usually speaks far louder than him where that yard is concerned. Personally I was sceptical about her coming on for the run at York, but I was also sceptical about Ten Sovereigns coming on from Ascot. The Irish Champion Stakes convinced me she has.

Of course I don't expect everyone to agree with me. Enable has beaten Magical four times fair and square. There was no way Magical was going to beat Enable last year as she just wasn't good enough. I reckon this year, however, that the improved 4yo Magical wasn't at her best in the Eclipse (predicted beforehand) and again at York. Some horses, the exceptions like Enable, are top class virtually throughout their whole career, but most, like Magical, are capable of putting up a few high performances then experience troughs.

Obviously people will say that the King George form with Crystal Ocean points to Enable being better than an on song Magical anyway and me saying that CO was a few pounds below his POW is just another excuse. But if they're saying that CO ran to the pound in both races then they're making an excuse for Waldgeist's display in the POW, or they're saying he improved on his third run of the season at the age of 5, which is plausible, it's also what I thought initially. All I'm doing is saying it was in fact him that ran to form not CO, as that's what the time analysis tells me. As to Found, I rate Magical a few pounds better than her

30th Sept

after all the early skirmishes trying to get the big prices on  possible winners now the dust has settled,   now with the race a few weeks away  and the fav so short still some juice in the others and looking at the market now  magical at around 30 on here  appeals ,already on at roughly that  price and have a few others running for me  hopefull that she will go for this , enable obviously  will be hard to beat but cant be afraid of 1 horse and  magical has not got much to find  and at the odds i will be topping up on her .

looks like sottsass to me

I hope you're right, Enable and Japan will do too.

i think its that time when a legend doesnt have it no more and is retired . just like montjeu vs sinndarr .if you look at japans form this season it suggests a burly horse, needed 3 races to get on a roll and rested since 21st august . that doesnt look promising to me japan cup maybe ? magical looks the aob horse . then sottsass do these french races have the class anymore ? i,m changing my mind to magical / floating at the moment

so you are on the magical bandwagon impossible123

im sticking with sottsass and deirdrie

The case for Enable is easy to make and it would appear her race to lose. However, at this stage her price is not one to take with the A/P risk.

If there is a horse who is going under the radar somewhat it is surely Ghaiyyath. His run at Baden Baden had the wow factor for me.He was given a rating of 128 by the handicappers, which was backed up by the clock.In fact, I could make him a couple of pounds higher quite easily. If he was a certain runner I have to think that he would be a single figure price and not the 13.0 which he currently is. I've backed him at 15.0 and will probably back him again when and if he is confirmed.He still has a few pounds to find with Enable who,getting the mares allowance, he has to, but being so lightly raced that wouldn't be unlikely. I have to hope that Godolphin will want a runner and will give him the go-ahead if he is training well.

Sandown,

I totally agree and posted similar to your words on here September 2nd.

If he can back up his BB run he's a live danger to Enable, more so than the 3 year olds

Andrew in Sweden.

It was your post which alerted me so thank you. It was an incredible run which I hope he can replicate,perhaps even improve upon. Just hope he gets the opportunity.☺

when is decs today/tomorrow?

17 declared, no shock omissions, my outsider deirdrie still in

Supplementary on wednesday with final decs on thursday.

Is Enable a good thing? There have been 204  5y + runners since 1949 with 3 winners and just 2 from 130 since 1980. (Since 1980 the 3 year olds are 5 times more likely and  4 year olds 3.3 times more likely than older horses to provide the winner.)

One possible explanation for this is that the cream of the crop are not kept in training after 4 especially if they are colts which may go to explain why 2 mares (Treve & Enable) have or are  trying for a third win in the race which has not yet been achieved. Another possible reason is that older horses are much less likely too find much improvement than younger horses, on top of which the WFA scale may still favour younger horses.

Despite these stats, the only horse for money is Enable (£6500 to back at 1.8 on BF) so somebody must think she is value. I could not back her without knowing the ground and draw ( a wide draw is a problem).

She is still the most likely winner for me but I can let her run without my money at the current price even if NRNB.

is that best odds as well, imp

deirdrie was certainly in the 17 runners on here yesterday, now she isnt ,

no, the 6 day decs were yesterday, and i backed deirdrie yesterday , now shes missing.

i put a back of deirdrie up just a tenner at 100 yesterday motning, went unmatched, until was layed at 7.25pm after she was withdrawn in the afternoon, i understand it was an ante post market, but is this allowed ?.