Horse Antepost
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19 May 19
11:36
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Date Joined:
07 Sep 15
Heading the book are familiar names of the main protagonists in the Derby eg Sir Dragonet (8/1) , Broome (10/1) , Telecaster (8/1), Circus Maximus (14/1), Japan (20/1), Mohawk (20/1), Western Australia (25/1), Norway (25/1), etc - all but one of these are with AOB (again).
Another benevolent St Leger for AOB (again)? He'd have won 5 in the last 6 years but for Bondi Beach (demoted to 2nd) and Idaho (odds-on) unseating rider.
Another benevolent St Leger for AOB (again)? He'd have won 5 in the last 6 years but for Bondi Beach (demoted to 2nd) and Idaho (odds-on) unseating rider.
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Replies: 26
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Had Constantinople on my mind for this?
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A very pleasing run from Constantinople last night.
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Post the Derby the two leading protagonists are Japan and Broome at 6/1 and 7/1 respectively; the former ran a cracking race in his 2nd race back from an injury this season, and he'd even turn the table on Anthony Van Dyck in the Irish Derby, if he runs; the latter clearly needed further, and possibly softer ground would help too.
Unless the winner of the Oaks Annapurna throws her hat into the ring this could be another benevolent race for AOB as he's responsible for 5 out of 6 (except Annapurna) in the betting market eg Japan, Broome, Annapurna, Sir Dragonet, Constantinople and Fleeting. |
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Japan is shortest at 7/4 here, but 3/1 with a few others; if a confirmed runner he'd be 'even' money at most thus there must be a doubt about his participation being Ballydoyle's number 1 with so many tastier targets to aim at eg King George, Champions Stake and the Arc. Another 2f could stretch his stamina to the breaking point too.
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Constantinople did not advertise his claim at Goodwood today; AOB has several entered for the Great Voltigeur - the next Leger Trial at York; Broome, Sir Dragonet and Norway are the 3 big guns, but the last mentioned just ran in the King George thus fairly unlikely, I'd think.
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As always is the case the reason for the contraction of the price of Logician over the last couple of days is out - he's been tipped by a pundit on SportingLife; he's in the Great Voltigeur along with Broome and Sir Dragonet (do not see him as a Leger horse, personally) who I think will probably head for the Royal Whip at The Curragh a few days earlier.
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Broome has been bought by a Japanese and is being aimed at The ARC; The Leger is still on the agenda for him, but a decision closer to the time. And, AOB will train him for both races.
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is there declarations today?
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Spanish Mission (one of mine) has been scratched; heading to Belmont for a $1m race as his owner is American (I ought to have checked prior). The final decs is 9th Sept, and I hope Broome is amongst them - he's a shoo-in; fingers and toes crossed otherwise a dreadful renewal assured.
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Finally, the news is out: Japan, AVD and Broome (a change of owner) have been scratched which means 1st 4 in the Epson Derby are not in the race; no Sovereign (Irish Derby winner) either. But AOB still has 11 entered the main one being Sir Dragonet who was 5th in the Derby; Il Paradiso (behind Stradivarius/Dee Ex Bee); Constantinople (beaten by Logician/Nayef Road/South Pacific).
Another Gp 1 beckons for Gosden/Dettori/Logician almost assured. |
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With the defection of several of AOB big guns eg AVD, Sovereign and Broome will connections of Spanish Mission have 2nd thought about running here? The race looks fairly open despite Logician a shortie fav; the others much of a muchness, and they all have been beaten in their races except the fav.
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Constantinople has gone on a walk into the wilderness, but his stablemate Sir Dragonet has been back into 2nd fav ahead of Il Paradiso. What a wonderful (rewarding) gift inside info is!
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it seems constantinople is sold to australia.. sadly for all our ante post vouchers. though prob small chance he might run in leger. im sure coolmore may not want to have sold a leger winner before he won it though..
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^^
It'll not surprise me (Constantinople) given the persistent price walkabout the last week, with Sir Dragonet going the other way. As usual punters are the last to know eg Broome - he took a walk too weeks prior despite Olli Bell's interview with AOB at Ballydoyle prior to York when asked Brrome was absent at the workout. |
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Only x11 left in at the 5 day stage including x6 from Ballydoyle. Be surprised if all the Irish contingent turn up leaving a "small" field. Logician is a worthy favourite and I will be a backer but finding a worthy each way opponent is going to be a different challenge but will be trying once the final line up is settled.
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If Western Australia turns up I will back him e/w . In his first season he only really found his feet in the Autumn . He has form in the book with G1 winners . I am not that keen on the favourite .
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In addition to Logician I have settled on Il Paradiso as my each way selection. It would seem Sir Dragonet is Ballydoyle`s first string but not for me at the current price.
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A really poor standard Leger on paper, imo. I thought Logician was a good bet last time but I still rate the win below that of an average Leger winner. He could progress again I suppose but I have his last two wins pretty much equal so I'd say it's more likely he won't improve. Looking at most of the opposition he might not need to improve at all. However, for me, the horse with the best single piece of form is Sir Dragonet and if his latest run after the break brings him forward I see him as the one to beat. I will be splitting stakes between laying the fav and backing SD.
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Figgis
I'm surprised that you don't rate Logicians form in the Gt Voltigeur because on my figures the form reads very well, and on the sectionals I would say that form is definitely G1 standard. If he stays, then he is going to be hard to beat. Given the way that he finished in a well run race (he was running on strongly) I would be reasonably confident that he will get the trip OK. Sir Dragonet would have to be his main danger (Derby form, connections) but I thought at the time he weakened at Epsom. Surely, there is as much if not more doubt about him at the trip as there is with Logician? It would be very disappointing if any of the others win unless they make considerable improvement, which is always possible of course, but for me their chance is no better than their price. Conclusion : Logician should be well odds on so I make him a good bet at evens. |
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Sandown, on times I rated Logician's previous handicap win quite highly, good enough to be placed in a typical St Leger. I rated his Voltigeur win similarly, just 1lb higher. This St Leger looks very weak so that form might be good enough this year. As a lightly raced 3yo he might even improve again but I'm thinking that's odds against with his form levelling off on his last two runs, in my view. As to Sir Dragonet, I actually have his Chester win 5lbs higher than the Derby run. In backing him I have to hope he can return to that form. On most recent form Logician definitely has the better chance but for me the prices of those two runners should be closer than they are.
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Figgis
The ground at Chester might have contributed to SD performance there and it would be a slight chance that he may be better on it. That said, he did look like the Derby winner 2f out and as a big backer of him I was disappointed especially as I didn't get him laid in running.His comeback run was obviously just a prep and I will ignore it.I won't be surprised if he wins but I have fewer doubts about Logician. Good luck. |
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Well done Sandown, you got him spot on. Even though it was a poor field he looked a proper Gp1 horse there.
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Thanks Figgis. One of the easier races to assess. He finished in a sub 24 sec final 2f so it will be interesting to run the figures on him later.SD looks as though he has gone or maybe he does need softer ground?
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Sandown, I'd say he's gone. Like Telecaster he's been on the decline since his Derby trial. Like that horse maybe the trial took a lot out of him or maybe he just ran above himself that day. Probably the latter, as he was held up well off the pace that day and that's the easiest way to run a decent time in a strongly run race. They never thought that much of him beforehand so he's probably just not very good, he certainly isn't now anyway.
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Sandown, to sidetrack the thread, are you playing today's Irish Champion Stakes? In my view, and I'm aware this is very much a minority opinion, Magical's last two runs while being ok haven't been up to the form she showed earlier at Royal Ascot. On the RArun I'd have her a very short price today but her latest form leaves her vulnerable so it's a no play for me.
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Figgis
Saw this late so I know the outcome. I didn't play because I couldn't back Magical at the prices (even when she was bigger than SP) as I thought that others had reasonable chances but nothing doing for me. |