The Oaks...

I saw both tahgrooda and ouija board win the pretty polly for me she was just as impressive as they were ,haggis has said she is in the oaks the french oaks and the ribblesdale for god sake what is he thinking about the ribblesdale is for horses not up to classic standard she is .

I liked her performance as well

although can we bet against o brien in classics anymore?

Good morning Lewisham

Whilst obviously the ballydoyle horses will always need respecting the real greats of this century the likes of sea the stars,frankel,sinndar,golden horn,ouija board,snow fairy,taghrooda,enable,harbinger,zarkava,treve and sakhee all dealt with the O’Brien horses in most cases without any problem.

looks like Hermosa is going for the Ir 1000G.

Pink Dogwood? Take one for the family is more important, I guess.

In some ways a surprising decision to aim her at the Irish 1000 I know the currugh is a stiff test but surely the oaks would suit her better

In some ways a surprising decision to aim her at the Irish 1000 I know the currugh is a stiff test but surely the oaks would suit her better

If Hermosa has genuinely improved significantly from last season given her development over the winter taking the comments on her trainer on trust when she'd been repeatedly beaten after making the running she'd repeat her English victory in the Irish version especially if Just Wonderful is deemed unlikely to improve on her English 1000G performance. Then, a possibly up-in-trip for Hermosa in the Irish and/or Yorkshire Oaks - she's a mare nd not a colt afterall.

A decision to run here will not be greeted well by punters esp immediately post race AOB's comments. I hope she's improved massively from last season, and prove to be as good as Minding over the months.

As good as Minding? She's improved about 4lbs. A very moderate 1000 winner.

not sure still about magna grecia but definitely agree with that. thought that was a dreadful 1000 guineas- even worse than last years version.

Anyone know where Sea of Faith is due to run next ?

Yes! The Listed race at Newbury on Lockinge day according to a quote from Haggas in the Pricewise antepost preview in the Racing Post on Tuesday.

From memory, the same race Sea Of Class won last year...

Thanks Rease. Was she antepost tip then ?

yes, her (20/1) and Amanda Perrett's Lavender's Blue (33/1) who is due to run in the same race at Newbury.

Both trainers stating they're using the race to decide whether their respective fillies are Oaks contenders - obviously that's the purpose of a trial but that race is only 13 days before the Oaks so potentially a big ask for inexperienced fillies (Haggas ultimately thought it was too big an ask for SoC last year).

I don't back the tips by the way - but the preview is useful with the trends and trainer quotes (especially if you read them closer to the race - a lot can change in three weeks as you know!)

guys imissed pricewises oaks write up , what did he say about aiden o briens contenders ? ,hermosa ,pink dogwood ,just wonerfull etc ,thanks in anticipation !

The Cheshire Oaks winner Mehdaayih was impressive at Chester, but she's shot at 9/4. However, she did beat Maqsad (7/1 3rd fav) over 8f last season, and the step-up in trip seems to have contributed to her improvement this season too; the anticipated good ground, pros or con to her?

As for Pink Dogwood (3/1) one can only back her with confidence if one is stable/connections related. But, I'm not (sadly).

I don't think you absolutely need inside information to fancy pink dogwood. most of these fillies are inexperienced and there's no stand-out on form. her gowran park win was visually as impressive as anything in the field has done.

also we saw Hermosa improve from her first run to her second so you would expect pink dogwood to do the same.

I was so impressed by Mehdaayih that I have to back her against Pink Dogwood. Pink Dogwood did win her trial easily enough and may improve but there were a lot of horses close up in that race and if she were in another stable she would be a bigger price. Also Mehdaayih may well improve and will be probably be ok on the track and will hopefully have the best big race jockey to help.

Mehdaayih certainly doesn't look like much physically but she sure seems to pack a punch when out on the racetrack. I have a feeling she will drift in the live market but i don't think the drifting will stop her winning.

Money for Pink Dogwood into 3.4 from 4.5 with Mehdaayih on the drift to 4.2 from 3.5 here. But, I still do not fancy the former on what she's shown so far unless the ground is a major factor.

I posted this on boards.ie today

How did the Oaks field do in Group or Listed races?

These won a Group race (2 fillies) (as far as I can see) :
Fleeting (Group 3) (and in 2019 was 15th of 15 in the English 1000 Guineas.)
Tarnawa (Group 3)

These have won a Listed race (7 fillies):
Anapurna; Blue Gardenia; Manuela De Vega; Maqsad; Mehdaayih; Peach Tree; Pink Dogwood.

These have not won a Group or Listed race (5 fillies):
Delphinia; Frankellina; Lavender's Blue; Sh Boom; Tauteke.

The Group race and Listed race winners only won once at that level.
Perhaps I have made a mistake in the lists above.

This looks like a very weak Oaks field with no multiple Group race winners, no Group 2 winners, no Group 1 winners.

My choice is Lavender's Blue at 22s.

is it good to have an outside or inside draw?!

*Fleeting (Group 2)

The draw is a waste of time.
1) The starter for the Derby starting in 2011 has been keeping the stalls on the inside rail,
2) OR moving the stall into the middle of the track,
3) OR filling the stalls inside machine first, then filling the outside machine,
4) OR putting half the field in one machine and half in the other, not necessarily 50% in each (2015 it was 7 inner, 5 outer)
5) OR last year (2018) he filled them 2 in the inner machine, 10 in the outer (in 2010 it was the opposite, 10 in the inner machine, 2 in the outer)

If you can read the starter's mind you might have an advantage.
He does not follow the BHA rules.

Havlin on Mehdaayih, reason for the drift? He's 3 wins from 4 rides.

MAQSAD for me, so impressive in the Pretty Polly. Missing French Oaks for this. The question is will she stay, and I am hoping that given the ground conditions will be fast side of good, that she can travel well into the race, quicken to lead, and hold on to that lead.

maqsad.. the way she travelled into the race last time deeply impressed me. maybe I'm a very poor judge but when I see a horse win like that then they're a class act...wouldn't be concerned about the staying thing.

nice to see connections of mehdaayih have stuck with rav havlin ? did they ? i hope so he surely deserves the chance

the one that keeps bugging me is frankellina, I think she is a massive improver going up to a mile and a half. but then I guess she'll have to be as they all finished in a heap last time out.

pink dogwood is an out and out stayer. she's a big boat. look at her races she doesn't quicken at all. so the fact that she beat a strong field off a relatively slow pace first time up at naas is quite encouraging for her chances, and will also improve a lot going up to a mile and a half as her full brother already won an irish derby. given the trainers record, the price isn't really that short. and the fact that they are just sending her and two relative no-hopers gives you some idea the way they regard her.

looking at some of maqsads races tonight I do sort of wonder if she'll get the trip. races slightly keenly. and she got outstayed behind sunday star as a two year old over much shorter, that doesn't exactly scream oaks winner, that you're getting outstayed by a kodiac filly.

speaking of pace, the way medhaayiah slaughtered her field for toe at chester was hugely impressive. I backed the second that day Manuela de vega and looked away in disgust once the gosden filly quickened, as felt she had been mugged by a filly coming around the outside, but when I watched the race again you couldn't fail to be impressed. she murdered them for speed. whether than means she won't stay over a truly run mile and a half, I don't know. but i'd be suprised if the beckett filly turned around the form, regardless of the fact she was giving her weight at chester.

I think hugh Taylor also put something up which showed that her closing fractions that day were significantly quicker than sir dragonet in the chester vase about half an hour later. I think it's entirely possible we could get a repeat dose at Epsom and that she does them for toe.

I mean I guess my point is that if you fancy sir dragonet based on what he did at chester, you have to fancy medhaayiah.

looked at that medhaayiah race again. I implore anyone who hasn't done so to watch the video. she ran the last two furlongs like someone just put a rocket up her bum. whoosh! she took off. that was impressive.

maybe in the oaks its a different kind of test and she can't repeat that, but I just feel at the top level speed kills. frankel also seems like a huge influence for stamina. even though that race was slowly run it was also over a mile and a half and if she was really a non-stayer would she be quickening up like that at the end?

ya i can see where your coming from , but , remember sd is still green so he will improve , ie past the timing , where as the filly is  more  closely at her peak/ best and relatively experienced  . put it this way if conditions are fine and medaahyih doesnt win the oaks then you gotta think again regarding sd

well yeah and the other question is will she handle the quicker ground as well, he also has the same question mark to answer.

out of the frankels in the race she's the one who most reminds me of her sire, ie the freakish speed/stride, the only question mark for me is was that just visually impressive because it turned into a speed test, and will she get found out in this classic in a more truly run race? I don't think she'd be the one who would come out on top if it turned into a tough battle in the final furlong, I think she's quite one dimensional that way, but that one trick might be good enough anyway.

put it this way, I'd feel like a mug if I backed manuela de vega to beat her and she got done for toe again in the same way- ultimately in horse racing the most important factor is speed, who the quickest horses are, and at chester the gosden filly I think showed her cards in that sense. she's seriously quick.

have backed pink dogwood with a saver on frankellina. not very original. my first two bets on the race.

was sorely tempted by mehdayyiah but wonder if she'll boil over on the day, they are putting a hood on her in the paddock beforehand apparently.

also can't help but think that her last run was on softish ground and it turned into a burn-up in the last two furlongs. when she does them for speed tomorrow the tv could well be flying out the window.

having looked at the race it revolves around wether pink dogwood can show on the racecourse what she has she has  shown at home ,a lot according to some 33s into 3s suggests she has been burning up the gallops but 3/1 is a bit short to find out imo ,most of these have only won at listed class or less and the trip could bring out inmprovement in some of the less obvious ones and i have had a few quid on fleeting the only group winner in the field won a weak looking may hill stakes last season and only fair form this s=term  last in the 1,000 guineas but the step up to 12 f should be right up her street but the ste and at around 50s or better on her she may be value by zoffany and bred to stay she could be value ,as i like a few cracks of the whip at big prices also having a nibble at  delphina also trained at ballydoyle and by gallileo lightly raced and could also improve  for the step up in distance and around 55s or better on here ,longshots  yes but both well bred and with the right connections .

considering aob s will to compete at chester its interesting  that he had very little ammunition in this race , secret thoughts was well stuffed . so its surprising that pink dogwood is favourite . people do back aob blind . hes just not got one imo meedayih all day

sorry i was refering to the cheshire oaks

yes maybe but I've got fooled by a visually impressive trial winner before (a few of godolphins spring to mind) over the years, and when they've faced the ultimate test of a classic they've been exposed by the quality of coolmore.


just get the feeling that if mehdayiaah doesn't flatten them like in chester, and she gets into a battle, there are others in this who are hardier. also can you remember the last time that O'brien went in so small handed into a classic, when he had the option of multiple runners? normally when he has only a handful of runners he tends to win.


i don't generally wave the white flag easily and I'm quite stubborn, but I think i've learned over the last few years that it's not wise to take on O'brien in the big races. I fact this time I've completely flipped my approach and gone with him in both the oaks and the derby, so cue a coolmore wipe-out

I think Pink Dogwood is fav could be because Dettori is not on Mehdaayih otherwise the lattercould be as short as 7/4; money for Maqsad.

maqsad is pricewised

At the risk of looking ridiculous after the event and AOB having had the first 3 home I would like to point out that Mehdaayih did have to dig pretty deep when winning the mile maiden on good to firm at Yarmouth when beating Fanny Logan and Maqsad. Also there must be some doubt that Pink Dogwood will get the mile and a half in a top class race looking at the dam and the dam's sire. I will miss the race live as am off to work now but have stuck a bottle of Moet in the fridge to watch the tv coverage with when I get home as I am very hopeful that I will be celebrating. Good luck to all.

have had to stick peach tree in with my other 2 at 42 on here would look a bigger mug than usual if i left him out and he won .

the only one who can beat O'Brien is gosden, it seems

thought fleeting ran well and possibly a bit unlucky made up a lot of ground and if was in a better posi at tattenham she may well have got much closer ,then again maybe she didnt have the pace to get into a better position early .

think the win of anapurna showed the importance of stamina in these classic races. her better heralded stablemate wasn't quite as well bred for the trip as anaapurna. neither was maqsad. pink dogwood struck for home and she stayed fairly well but got outstayed herself by the winner.

anapurna was also tipped up by the racing post pedigree expert in a youtube preview.

also a first English classic winner for frankel which got lost in all the commotion.

by frankel out of a very good staying family on the female side, that's very strong influence for stamina. worth bearing in mind for future.

I can see why Coolmore rated their filly, as she wasn't far behind being an average Oaks winner and she does look impressively powerful in her paces. Unfortunately for them she just wasn't quite as fast as an average Oaks winner. While there was some talk of Moore going too soon I thought the winner did it fair and square but this is still a few pounds below average form for an Oaks winner. Even though I think the result was fair on the day, going forward I would take PD to reverse the form with Apanura, as she looked the more natural athlete with easy speed. I'd say she's more likely to repeat the form next time than the winner. A stronger early pace would also suit her more.

Anapurna even

Coolmore obviously fancied their filly and from the O'Brien comments always believed she'd stay. O'Brien had said what a good mover she was and it was apparent she was a powerful traveller. So I'm left wondering why they didn't try to ensure a better early gallop with Peach Tree. The opportunity was there. There's no telling if it would've made any difference to the result on the day but it would've played to PD's strengths and made Moore's decision when to go for home a much easier one.

Interesting conclusion from Timeform that the winner Anapurna recorded the lowest winning performance since 2000:
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/sectionals/timefigure-review-investec-derby-festival-562019

"Friday’s race lacked the leading three-year-old filly Hermosa, and all those who did take part needed to improve to win an average Oaks, so it should come as no great surprise that this wasn’t an up-to-scratch renewal. Indeed, the winner Anapurna – a first classic winner in Europe for Frankel – recorded the lowest winning performance since 2000.

There is relatively little to say with respect to times and sectionals, which makes the laborious task of manually compiling sectionals frustrating, as the efforts don’t bear any immediate fruits.

The pedestrian pace resulted in a finishing speed of 110.8% (very close to par finishing speed), with the winner positioned more prominently as they entered the straight than the Ballydoyle pair of Pink Dogwood (four lengths in arrears) and Fleeting (roughly eight lengths down on the winner). Both fillies finished faster than par, but don’t warrant large enough sectional upgrades to suggest they were unlucky.

The resulting timefigure for Anapurna (104) is one of the slowest since 2000 – only Dancing Rain (74, 2011), Was (92, 2012) and Casual Look (102, 2003) have been slower."

The Irish version is this saturday, and Star Catcher the winner of a weak Ribblesdale will be supplemented. Why, with stablemates like Annapurna and Mehdaayih? Surely either will be more potent against the clan of Coolmpre.

The 4 key protagonists are Iridessa (9/4), the impressive winner of the Pretty Polly; Pink Dogwood (3/1); Star Catcher (9/2) and Fleeting (7/1) - the Ribblesdale winner and 2nd respectively.

If Iridessa stays the extra 2f she must have an excellent chance. On the other hand it's difficult to see Pink Dogwood winning given her defeat by Iridessa (if stays), and the expected firm ground; Fleeting could reversed placing with Star Catcher and Pink Dogwood, if ridden more judiciously, I think.

Perhaps you should apply judiciousness to your posts Bungle.

Backing Star Catcher each way. See no reason for Ascot form to be reversed especially if the forecast rain arrives.

Could Moore have been sold a dummy (again)? His filly is the most exposed of the 3 main Irish protagonists, I believe.

Only gone and done it again. The clock rarely lies.

Only gone and done it again. The clock rarely lies.