Oaks - Pink Dogwood

She did run in the Boussac despite only finishing 5th starting at 3/1 - the winner did not advertise the form either. I think there are at least two eg Hermosa (ran in the Criterium against the colts) and Just Wonderful (winner of the Rockel) with better 2 yr old credentials, assuming stamina is a given for all.

I was at Longchamp for Enables last Arc and saw Pink Dogwood in the Boussac. Just about every Irishman i got talking with mentioned this one positively and she was heavily backed on the day (5/2).

Missed the start a little, but soon took over at the front and tried to make all looking the winner 300 metres out, but fading in the final 150 metres. She was lightly raced in maidens, but ran well, winning the latter easily and was thrust straight into a Group 1, not beaten far (1.5L). The longer trip is certainly in her favour, ground will not be a problem. She's rated 104 and should be up to winning the listed race today, although i wouldn't back her.

I was quite taken with Tarnawa last time - really stuck her head down and battled and the further she went the better.
At 7/1 e/w I have had to have a small bet.

Showed a nice attitude but no obvious fancy change of pace. The question I suppose is whether O'Brien can find 10-14lbs improvement? She has probably booked her ticket but I wouldn't have cut her for the Oaks on the basis of that performance.

Rarely do I describe the fav of an AOB trained runner for a Classic race "underwhelmed", but she was; she also hanged. She may still be green, but she's lacks that touch of "class" to warrant a fav tag for a Classic race as she did not stem her authority at the business end either like Broome did.

Hardly scintillating but got the job done and so given her connections it's easy to understand the bookies price given the current lack of depth to the race - hopefully a few decent challengers emerge over the next 2-3 weeks (1,000 Guineas / Pretty Polly, Chesitre Oaks, Muisidora etc).

Landed the e/w money with Tarnawa who was slightly short of room on the inside when the first two quickened up down the outside, but she ran on and looks like 1m4f will suit. Doubt that will be Epsom though given connections.

a nice albeit workmanlike performance, but 5-1 for the oaks leaves little room for error... then again, perhaps I should listen to the golden rule of horse racing betting

never bet against O'Brien

Lightly raced and got the job done today even though it was only listed class. The extra 2 furlongs suited and another two will bring even more improvment, and she has to improve to win an Oaks.

She's probably a slow maturing type, a little bit like Winter, another AOB filly who improved leaps and bounds as a 3 year old. She hasn't really run a bad race in 5 to be honest, even in the Prix Boussac, she was simply beaten by speedier types after making most of the running.

Would i back her at 5/1 for the Oaks today, no, but i wouldn't be shocked to see her win at all.

At the moment she appears to be the chosen one amongst the O'Brien staying fillies. Given his plaudits you would have to think she is showing the trainer far more than the bare form suggests.

I wouldn't have thought there would be too much to be gained by running in another trial.

Add Hermosa to the equation - which would one choose? No brainer I'd say.

Amazing that Pink Dogwood is still favourite. So far hardly any drift at all.

Manuela De Vega at 33/1 the standout value. Plenty of reasons why she can improve on today's performance.

I think Pink Dogwood (PD) is still fav merely at the courtesy of connections, and a change of plan for Hermosa (H). Just Wonderful (JW) is Irish 1000G, and if showing massive progression in the next couple of weeks who'd say Hermosa will not be Oaks bound (again).

I cannot back PD with free money - I'd rather donate to charity than "waste" it on her. Will this come to haunt me (again) like Found did in the Arc?; once bitten, twice shy? I do not subscribe.

Mehdaayih was impressive today.

imp123 where did ya hear that just wonderfull is going for irish gns ? thanks ,

^^
I cannot say categorically I heard JW is definitely 1000G bound only inference in post race interviews with AOB when talking positively about stepping Hermosa up in trip,...JW...and, jockey of Happen suggesting 8f for Happen; early Oaks betting suggested JW could be Oaks bound (the way she ran in the 1000G), but no taker at all now post the change of mind on Hermosa which I'm 2nd guessing connections do not have confidence in JW winning the Irish race.

I'd be wrong, but betting is suggesting JW is very unlikely Oaks bound (presently) unless negative news concerning Pink Dogwood in the near future. If so, another change of mind on Hermosa perhaps. No doubt the betting for the Irish 1000G when available could share more light on this.

thanks imp123

I thought AOB might have a clean sweep of the Classics (already bagged two) this season, but this filly could be the weakest link. Even the presence of Hermosa (if running) might not be sufficient to deny Mehdaayih either as the former was very impressive when sprinting away winning the Cheshire Oaks from a previous winner.

Piss*d off I missed that Tarnawa was running, and winning at 4/1, on Saturday.

according to the racing post postcast on youtube, tom segal is on pink dogwood at big prices.
also according to that postcast, the whispers about pink dogwood at ballydoyle is very strong, they think she's one of the best they've ever had at the stable, and she could be very special.

read into that what you will but doesn't look like O'Brien will need many runners in the oaks if that's the case.

tom segal is on pink dogwood at big prices

the whispers about pink dogwood at ballydoyle is very strong

When I used to buy the Post I often thought a lot of his success was down to whispers more than anything else.

yes, he definitely has inside connections. I thought the same as well.

although on the video, he reacted like he was surprised.

likely story...

should have said "reacted with surprise and delight when he heard that they rated her very highly at home" as if he had never heard this before...

Actually I disagree with the negativity on here about Pink Dogwood. Yes I can see that she looks short but this is obviously insider money, not just some public bits of cash pinning hopes on any old O'Brien runner, so, like it or not, it has to be respected from this yard. As to her form, she won her maiden impressively but for one reason or another regressed when running in France. Unlike some, I was quite impressed with her reappearance. She didn't go away and win by lengths but this was a slowly run affair so that was unlikely to happen. She was always travelling supremely well and looked a class above, I think a truly run race would've seen her win far more easily.

Obviously she still hasn't shown Oaks winning form so a lot would have to be taken on trust. However, at this stage there doesn't look to be anything outstanding amongst the opposition. I wasn't anything like as impressed with Gosden's Chester winner as I was with Enable at the time. I'd put Maqsad slightly the best of the British runners but she still needs to improve. So while I wouldn't exactly go steaming in to back Pink Dogwood I wouldn't call her bad value.

have already backed hermosa for the  oaks , galileo and urban sea in the bloodline  so decent chance of staying  , reading the last few thre3ads they seem to be sweet on pink dogwood but i would not read too much into myself , the way hermosa was ridden i.e blasted off from the stalls and set a good clip it looked  to me she will be better over further ,looked to be swamped 2 out but kept on really strongly ,have looked at the 1,000 gns a few times and it was clear a fair few were uncomfortable after a few furlongs ,   its clear she has improved a fair bit since last season and possible more improvement stepped up in trip dont know if they will go oaks or irish guineas but hoping they go oaks .

surely if they are sweet on her you have to read something into it. as Figgis says it's not just random money, it's the genuine thing.

maybe she won't win but now I'm thinking she could gag up.

increasingly I'm starting to wonder if this is the year O'Brien cracks all five classics.

I reckon they think Hermosa isn't in the same ballpark as pink dogwood for the oaks.

actually sounds like they will have very few runners in the race, which will be another pointer in the dogwoods favour.

yeah ok she must have been showing something at home but  the price is too short for me on what she has acheived on the track , as been stated they dont know for sure who is the number one  imo . .

was thinking the same o brien for all 5 classics yesterday wonder what the price was if it was available ?

If Hermosa repeats her Guineas win, even though it was a mediocre renewal, she'd have a great chance if staying. Personally though I'm more inclined to think she will regress from that win.

I had several 25/1 vouchers here on Hermosa (none 1000G), but cashed-out post the dilly-dally from AOB, and into Mehdaayih with the returns; just felt Hermosa was given an easy lead, and several eg Just Wonderful did not run her race or rather not placed; Skitter Scatter was injured in the race.

wonder if we'll be saying pink dogsbollocks after the oaks, or pink dogshit instead, got sucked in by the hype

named after a hole at augusta I believe

I’m with differentdrum, and on MDV @ 33/1.
Got blocked at Chester and Ralph Beckett seems very confident.

Been some steady support for Manuela De Vega and you will now be pushed to get 20/1. I think she has a big chance to overturn that Chester form. She was conceding weight, must have lost at least three lengths with the ride and the winner had a fitness advantage. I suspect the slow pace also favoured the winner who looked all speed to me.

More support for Pink Dogwood as well but she has to deliver this seemingly massive home reputation on the track.

I cannot comprehend the short price of Pink Dogwood on given form - home reputation or not; her price has shortened even further on account of the non-participation of Hermosa. But for the proximity of the Irish 1000G and Epsom Hermosa would have run at Epsom which would infer connections are too confident of her winning chance.

Is Maqsad running here? She's (4/1 2nd fav) in the French Oaks, but no price for Hermosa (very strange) even though AOB nominated the same race for her post Irish 1000G.

Mehdaayih beat Maqsad in an 8f race easily when the latter was odd-on with Fanny Logan a neck 2nd at Yarmouth in October; Mehdaayih beat Fanny Logan by 5.5l over 11.5f at Chester last week. Can Maqsad reverse form with Mehdaayih at Epsom?

if this pink dogwood isn't a monster (and none of the racecourse evidence so far suggests she is) then frankellina becomes interesting. left a few lengths at the start in the musidora.

maybe that form isn't good enough and they did finish in a heap, but she appealed as the one from that race who could improve a lot for the extra distance. she's an out and out galloper who doesn't really quicken so she needs a trip, basically. looks a fairly solid each-way bet to me.

I see queen power is in the betting but I would have my doubts that she would stay well enough.

I suspect the slow pace also favoured the winner who looked all speed to me.

yes but mehdaayih is also by frankel and his progeny tend to stay well, although it's true they didn't go much pace in that chester race. she has a long stride and acceleration so maybe she's a bit of a freak?! although neither of her parents ran over much further than ten furlongs so a strongly run 1 mile 4 might stretch her.

I might be right in thinking that frankel has yet to sire an English classic winner. this must be a great chance to break his duck as he could have three very lively contenders. anapurna has a perfect pedigree for the distance as well.

She might stay and she might cope with the faster ground and she might cope with the track but at the price not for me.

A clean sweep of the Classics won't be lost on O'Brien and it must be a positive of sorts for Pink Dogwood that he hasn't been talking about firing his usual number of darts.

AOB initially suggesting Hermosa would run here instead of Irish 1000G could be telling post 4.30pm on 31st May.

A clean sweep of the Classics won't be lost on O'Brien

I have a feeling that this might happen. the home defence this year looks absolutely dreadful, in terms of the three year olds. I don't think O'Brien has ever done the "classic grand slam" but this year it looks ominous. he's been building up to this for years, this total dominance.

Let's not get too carried away though about the dominance though.

the home defence this year looks absolutely dreadful

This is the major reason for the dominance so far this season. That and him chucking more darts than anybody else. He has just won 2 classics with horses giving sub par performances for the race.

but it's not just this year is it? historically he's dominated in the English classics. and the home defence doesn't give you confidence that this year will be any different.

Sneaky feeling this years' Derby might represent the best home defence for a while, the horses from the Dante look decent and when you chuck in Bangkok, Madhmoon etc. it's not all Ballydoyle.  Sir Drag- scratchy mover flattered LTO, AVD won't stay a strongly run 12f, Broome not good enough, Japan and Norway place chances at best.  There's a few unexposed 3yos lurking there alright... Surfman's my pick I think he might win quite easily if he runs.

It depends how you define dominated I guess. He's obviously dominated all the classics more than any other trainer. Over the last 10 years he has a 50% record in the 2000 Guineas and 40% record in 1000, Derby, Oaks and 30% record in the Leger. So while there's always a strong chance he'll win any of them there's still at least a 50% chance he won't.

that was impressive from Hermosa today. she improved from her run at Newmarket.

that makes me think pink dogwood must be quite good, after all they could have aimed Hermosa at Epsom.

Still think Manuela De Vega remains the value at 14/1.

Wary of the reputation of Pink Dogwood but her aside I would be disappointed if three can beat her.

More concerned about whether Bentley can get the job done. He won on a couple of Beckett fillies last week but I thought they won despite him rather than because of him and of course he made a complete horlicks at Chester.

She's been heavily backed into favouritism here (3.35) - justified? As a result Mehdaayih is out to 4.1 (matched at 4.5 earlier ) - red herring?

Ground likely to be nothing like Chester and she was probably too short in any case.

If Mehdaayih (M) is short Pink Dogwood (PD) is comparatively shorter given her underwhelming "win - the form is mediocre too; the former won on G/F ground when beating Maqsad 4.75l into 3rd over 8f. On the contrary the latter's beaten on ground good or better (Epsom is anticipating G/F). And, Mehdaayih has proven she's even better over 11.5f. I'm tempted to go in for more, but I'm too laden on her already; not 'laying' PD out of respect for AOB.

Still loooks wide open and like in the Derby the most impressive trial winner (Meddaayih) has to prove she can be as effective on quicker ground.

Given I've been following her all season it's got to Tarnawa @ 25/1 e/w 4 places for me. I always assumed Weld would save her for the Ribblesdale / Irish Oaks so the fact he comes here presumably means he thinks she has a decent e/w shout.

Also done a little e/w double with Norway (40/1) in the Derby.

Strange overnight market. Obviously, it could change tomorrow but what has been strong in the build-up now appears weak and vice-versa.

Pink Dogwood seemingly hardening up again.

Drift in Manuela De Vega quite alarming. A couple of days it was looking as if she could well go off single figures but now nearer 20/1. Hard to believe that is just the combination of draw and Bentley. It will be very frustrating if she never gets competitive and ends up a staying on fourth.

Lavenders Blue is overpriced but didn't win a race she travelled best in last time and she looks the exact opposite of the type of bustling ride that seems to suit De Sousa.

Unless Mehdaayih turns up at Leopardstown which I think she'll not given Royal Ascot (and possibly France) Pink Dogwood is a shoo-in for the Irish Oaks when the betting opens, I firmly believe.

Interesting conclusion from Timeform that the winner Anapurna recorded the lowest winning performance since 2000:
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/sectionals/timefigure-review-investec-derby-festival-562019

"Friday’s race lacked the leading three-year-old filly Hermosa, and all those who did take part needed to improve to win an average Oaks, so it should come as no great surprise that this wasn’t an up-to-scratch renewal. Indeed, the winner Anapurna – a first classic winner in Europe for Frankel – recorded the lowest winning performance since 2000.

There is relatively little to say with respect to times and sectionals, which makes the laborious task of manually compiling sectionals frustrating, as the efforts don’t bear any immediate fruits.

The pedestrian pace resulted in a finishing speed of 110.8% (very close to par finishing speed), with the winner positioned more prominently as they entered the straight than the Ballydoyle pair of Pink Dogwood (four lengths in arrears) and Fleeting (roughly eight lengths down on the winner). Both fillies finished faster than par, but don’t warrant large enough sectional upgrades to suggest they were unlucky.

The resulting timefigure for Anapurna (104) is one of the slowest since 2000 – only Dancing Rain (74, 2011), Was (92, 2012) and Casual Look (102, 2003) have been slower."

pink dogwood 6/4 fav over 10 furlongs tomorrow  in g2, shes a lay for me v wild illusion, magic wand etc

Magic Wand will get the ground she revels in ie good/firm ground; was fav (until day of race) at Epsom but stable companion was the victor that day when the ground turned soft; comprehensively beat Wild Illusion in the Ribblesdale over 12f on good/firm ground. The question is, will she be able to give 12lbs to Pink Dogwood who I think would prefer slower ground?


At least she'll have the jockey who knows her best, and the ground to suit too; Magic Wand vs Pink Dogwood; 9/1 vs 11/8. And, I do not think this year's Oaks is superior to last year's either.

group 1

I expected to see Pink Dogwood odds on today, which admittedly isn't always a good sign when an obvious Coolmore horse goes off longer than expected. Nevertheless, if she is still in her Oaks form she'll be very hard to beat in this company on these weight terms.

these lot are killing  horse racing

The dog had every chance, and could only finish 3rd; Magic Wand tried (why did Doyle take her on?), but the up-in-trip for Iridessa and wfa concession told in the end.

Well done, Iridessa and Joseph.

I'd expect both Iridessa and Pink Dogwood to cross sword again in the Irish Oaks on 20th July at The Curragh. But, Mehdaayih the easy winner at France today had not been entered; she's in The Nassau (1st Aug) and Yorkshire Oaks (20th Aug). What a shame? Maybe connection could contemplate a supplementary.

thx imp. didnt know that mahdaayha had won today, being on the cricket all day.meh will go for nassau imo, but the other two who knows

what about star catcher she,ll be the irish oaks filly i think, oh what lovely days i backed bolas for the oaks every day after her ribb win. eddery and ?cant remember her trainer, was it hills /

I think Mehdaayih (11/10 with Sly yesterday) is more potent over 12f - she stays and quickens - and the 10f division is competitive with Maqsad and (probably) Pinkie Dogwood too; Star Catcher and Mehdaayih (both trained by Gosden) are not in the Irish Oaks (Fleeting is) instead The Nassau and Yorkshire Oaks, but no doubt will be split.

And, I think Mehdaayih is more likely to run at York against her elders than Star Catcher; Bolas was trained by BW Hills (I googled).

Gosden has Coronet and/or La Ti Dah for the Yorkshire Oaks. With Coronet winning her Group 1 yesterday he will be desperate to get one for LDH and she ha# a perfect record at York.

Lah Ti Dar looked as if the Yorkshire Oaks was her best chance of getting a group 1, especially if there's give. Always vulnerable to a real top notcher perhaps.

Anapurna might be going to York too making it 3 from Gosden but, none entered for the Irish Oaks. Could Star Catcher or Mehdaayih be supplemented for it?

yes thanks bolas and barry hills. did sir henry , hern , even vincent, guy, ever not run their best horses in group1 so others might get a g1 win ,their top horses always went for the big races .That one thing about racing now that i hate. you never heard of cecil not running say ref point in the kg coz he wanted another lesser horse of his to win a big one. IVE always said theres too much g1s  now. hope this post makes sense it does to me

The sad thing is there are far too many stallions and horses in existence since then plus in the hands of mainly one mega large establishment ie Coolmoore. And, because most of these are derived from Galileo (initially) they cost nothing to produce. As such, it makes economic sense to run the numbers they are doing at the moment to achieve best results.

Take for instance, Gigginstown: They spent £millions, yet unable/willing to sustain or justify their expense; they do not sire their horses thus trimming their cloth to suit.

Even Sheikh Mo and his cousins with their unlimited oil revenue resources have to reduce their expenditure on new purchases each year.