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differentdrum
27 Apr 19 19:49
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Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
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33/1-6/1

Reappears at Navan tomorrow. Not one of the more obvious routes to the Oaks. Will this prove to be yet another blowout for ante-post backers?

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Replies: 69
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Apr 19 09:54
She did run in the Boussac despite only finishing 5th starting at 3/1 - the winner did not advertise the form either. I think there are at least two eg Hermosa (ran in the Criterium against the colts) and Just Wonderful (winner of the Rockel) with better 2 yr old credentials, assuming stamina is a given for all.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 28 Apr 19 10:16
I was at Longchamp for Enables last Arc and saw Pink Dogwood in the Boussac. Just about every Irishman i got talking with mentioned this one positively and she was heavily backed on the day (5/2).

Missed the start a little, but soon took over at the front and tried to make all looking the winner 300 metres out, but fading in the final 150 metres. She was lightly raced in maidens, but ran well, winning the latter easily and was thrust straight into a Group 1, not beaten far (1.5L). The longer trip is certainly in her favour, ground will not be a problem. She's rated 104 and should be up to winning the listed race today, although i wouldn't back her.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 28 Apr 19 11:12
I was quite taken with Tarnawa last time - really stuck her head down and battled and the further she went the better.
At 7/1 e/w I have had to have a small bet.
By:
differentdrum
When: 28 Apr 19 16:02
Showed a nice attitude but no obvious fancy change of pace. The question I suppose is whether O'Brien can find 10-14lbs improvement? She has probably booked her ticket but I wouldn't have cut her for the Oaks on the basis of that performance.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Apr 19 16:50
Rarely do I describe the fav of an AOB trained runner for a Classic race "underwhelmed", but she was; she also hanged. She may still be green, but she's lacks that touch of "class" to warrant a fav tag for a Classic race as she did not stem her authority at the business end either like Broome did.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 28 Apr 19 17:28
Hardly scintillating but got the job done and so given her connections it's easy to understand the bookies price given the current lack of depth to the race - hopefully a few decent challengers emerge over the next 2-3 weeks (1,000 Guineas / Pretty Polly, Chesitre Oaks, Muisidora etc).

Landed the e/w money with Tarnawa who was slightly short of room on the inside when the first two quickened up down the outside, but she ran on and looks like 1m4f will suit. Doubt that will be Epsom though given connections.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 28 Apr 19 18:40
a nice albeit workmanlike performance, but 5-1 for the oaks leaves little room for error... then again, perhaps I should listen to the golden rule of horse racing betting

never bet against O'Brien Scared
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 28 Apr 19 22:19
Lightly raced and got the job done today even though it was only listed class. The extra 2 furlongs suited and another two will bring even more improvment, and she has to improve to win an Oaks.

She's probably a slow maturing type, a little bit like Winter, another AOB filly who improved leaps and bounds as a 3 year old. She hasn't really run a bad race in 5 to be honest, even in the Prix Boussac, she was simply beaten by speedier types after making most of the running.

Would i back her at 5/1 for the Oaks today, no, but i wouldn't be shocked to see her win at all.
By:
differentdrum
When: 29 Apr 19 12:10
At the moment she appears to be the chosen one amongst the O'Brien staying fillies. Given his plaudits you would have to think she is showing the trainer far more than the bare form suggests.

I wouldn't have thought there would be too much to be gained by running in another trial.
By:
impossible123
When: 05 May 19 23:03
Add Hermosa to the equation - which would one choose? No brainer I'd say.
By:
differentdrum
When: 08 May 19 18:39
Amazing that Pink Dogwood is still favourite. So far hardly any drift at all.

Manuela De Vega at 33/1 the standout value. Plenty of reasons why she can improve on today's performance.
By:
impossible123
When: 08 May 19 21:15
I think Pink Dogwood (PD) is still fav merely at the courtesy of connections, and a change of plan for Hermosa (H). Just Wonderful (JW) is Irish 1000G, and if showing massive progression in the next couple of weeks who'd say Hermosa will not be Oaks bound (again).

I cannot back PD with free money - I'd rather donate to charity than "waste" it on her. Will this come to haunt me (again) like Found did in the Arc?; once bitten, twice shy? I do not subscribe.

Mehdaayih was impressive today.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 09 May 19 08:07
imp123 where did ya hear that just wonderfull is going for irish gns ? thanks ,
By:
impossible123
When: 09 May 19 10:31
^^
I cannot say categorically I heard JW is definitely 1000G bound only inference in post race interviews with AOB when talking positively about stepping Hermosa up in trip,...JW...and, jockey of Happen suggesting 8f for Happen; early Oaks betting suggested JW could be Oaks bound (the way she ran in the 1000G), but no taker at all now post the change of mind on Hermosa which I'm 2nd guessing connections do not have confidence in JW winning the Irish race.

I'd be wrong, but betting is suggesting JW is very unlikely Oaks bound (presently) unless negative news concerning Pink Dogwood in the near future. If so, another change of mind on Hermosa perhaps. No doubt the betting for the Irish 1000G when available could share more light on this.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 09 May 19 13:43
thanks imp123
By:
impossible123
When: 12 May 19 19:36
I thought AOB might have a clean sweep of the Classics (already bagged two) this season, but this filly could be the weakest link. Even the presence of Hermosa (if running) might not be sufficient to deny Mehdaayih either as the former was very impressive when sprinting away winning the Cheshire Oaks from a previous winner.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 13 May 19 12:11
Piss*d off I missed that Tarnawa was running, and winning at 4/1, on Saturday.Cry
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 May 19 15:06
according to the racing post postcast on youtube, tom segal is on pink dogwood at big prices.
also according to that postcast, the whispers about pink dogwood at ballydoyle is very strong, they think she's one of the best they've ever had at the stable, and she could be very special.

read into that what you will but doesn't look like O'Brien will need many runners in the oaks if that's the case.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 May 19 15:31
tom segal is on pink dogwood at big prices

the whispers about pink dogwood at ballydoyle is very strong


When I used to buy the Post I often thought a lot of his success was down to whispers more than anything else.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 May 19 15:40
yes, he definitely has inside connections. I thought the same as well.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 May 19 15:40
although on the video, he reacted like he was surprised.

likely story...
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 May 19 15:41
should have said "reacted with surprise and delight when he heard that they rated her very highly at home" as if he had never heard this before...
By:
Figgis
When: 14 May 19 16:17
Actually I disagree with the negativity on here about Pink Dogwood. Yes I can see that she looks short but this is obviously insider money, not just some public bits of cash pinning hopes on any old O'Brien runner, so, like it or not, it has to be respected from this yard. As to her form, she won her maiden impressively but for one reason or another regressed when running in France. Unlike some, I was quite impressed with her reappearance. She didn't go away and win by lengths but this was a slowly run affair so that was unlikely to happen. She was always travelling supremely well and looked a class above, I think a truly run race would've seen her win far more easily.

Obviously she still hasn't shown Oaks winning form so a lot would have to be taken on trust. However, at this stage there doesn't look to be anything outstanding amongst the opposition. I wasn't anything like as impressed with Gosden's Chester winner as I was with Enable at the time. I'd put Maqsad slightly the best of the British runners but she still needs to improve. So while I wouldn't exactly go steaming in to back Pink Dogwood I wouldn't call her bad value.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 14 May 19 16:31
have already backed hermosa for the  oaks , galileo and urban sea in the bloodline  so decent chance of staying  , reading the last few thre3ads they seem to be sweet on pink dogwood but i would not read too much into myself , the way hermosa was ridden i.e blasted off from the stalls and set a good clip it looked  to me she will be better over further ,looked to be swamped 2 out but kept on really strongly ,have looked at the 1,000 gns a few times and it was clear a fair few were uncomfortable after a few furlongs ,   its clear she has improved a fair bit since last season and possible more improvement stepped up in trip dont know if they will go oaks or irish guineas but hoping they go oaks .
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 May 19 17:01
surely if they are sweet on her you have to read something into it. as Figgis says it's not just random money, it's the genuine thing.

maybe she won't win but now I'm thinking she could gag up.

increasingly I'm starting to wonder if this is the year O'Brien cracks all five classics.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 May 19 17:02
I reckon they think Hermosa isn't in the same ballpark as pink dogwood for the oaks.

actually sounds like they will have very few runners in the race, which will be another pointer in the dogwoods favour.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 14 May 19 17:11
yeah ok she must have been showing something at home but  the price is too short for me on what she has acheived on the track , as been stated they dont know for sure who is the number one  imo . .
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 14 May 19 17:15
was thinking the same o brien for all 5 classics yesterday wonder what the price was if it was available ?
By:
Figgis
When: 14 May 19 17:21
If Hermosa repeats her Guineas win, even though it was a mediocre renewal, she'd have a great chance if staying. Personally though I'm more inclined to think she will regress from that win.
By:
impossible123
When: 14 May 19 17:49
I had several 25/1 vouchers here on Hermosa (none 1000G), but cashed-out post the dilly-dally from AOB, and into Mehdaayih with the returns; just felt Hermosa was given an easy lead, and several eg Just Wonderful did not run her race or rather not placed; Skitter Scatter was injured in the race.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 May 19 17:58
wonder if we'll be saying pink dogsbollocks after the oaks, or pink dogshit instead, got sucked in by the hype Laugh
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 May 19 17:58
named after a hole at augusta I believe Tongue Out
By:
Mannybet
When: 18 May 19 12:36
I’m with differentdrum, and on MDV @ 33/1.
Got blocked at Chester and Ralph Beckett seems very confident.
By:
differentdrum
When: 20 May 19 17:07
Been some steady support for Manuela De Vega and you will now be pushed to get 20/1. I think she has a big chance to overturn that Chester form. She was conceding weight, must have lost at least three lengths with the ride and the winner had a fitness advantage. I suspect the slow pace also favoured the winner who looked all speed to me.

More support for Pink Dogwood as well but she has to deliver this seemingly massive home reputation on the track.
By:
impossible123
When: 20 May 19 19:31
I cannot comprehend the short price of Pink Dogwood on given form - home reputation or not; her price has shortened even further on account of the non-participation of Hermosa. But for the proximity of the Irish 1000G and Epsom Hermosa would have run at Epsom which would infer connections are too confident of her winning chance.

Is Maqsad running here? She's (4/1 2nd fav) in the French Oaks, but no price for Hermosa (very strange) even though AOB nominated the same race for her post Irish 1000G.

Mehdaayih beat Maqsad in an 8f race easily when the latter was odd-on with Fanny Logan a neck 2nd at Yarmouth in October; Mehdaayih beat Fanny Logan by 5.5l over 11.5f at Chester last week. Can Maqsad reverse form with Mehdaayih at Epsom?
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 22 May 19 10:51
if this pink dogwood isn't a monster (and none of the racecourse evidence so far suggests she is) then frankellina becomes interesting. left a few lengths at the start in the musidora.

maybe that form isn't good enough and they did finish in a heap, but she appealed as the one from that race who could improve a lot for the extra distance. she's an out and out galloper who doesn't really quicken so she needs a trip, basically. looks a fairly solid each-way bet to me.

I see queen power is in the betting but I would have my doubts that she would stay well enough.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 22 May 19 11:01
I suspect the slow pace also favoured the winner who looked all speed to me.

yes but mehdaayih is also by frankel and his progeny tend to stay well, although it's true they didn't go much pace in that chester race. she has a long stride and acceleration so maybe she's a bit of a freak?! although neither of her parents ran over much further than ten furlongs so a strongly run 1 mile 4 might stretch her.

I might be right in thinking that frankel has yet to sire an English classic winner. this must be a great chance to break his duck as he could have three very lively contenders. anapurna has a perfect pedigree for the distance as well.
By:
differentdrum
When: 22 May 19 13:16
She might stay and she might cope with the faster ground and she might cope with the track but at the price not for me.

A clean sweep of the Classics won't be lost on O'Brien and it must be a positive of sorts for Pink Dogwood that he hasn't been talking about firing his usual number of darts.
By:
impossible123
When: 22 May 19 13:36
AOB initially suggesting Hermosa would run here instead of Irish 1000G could be telling post 4.30pm on 31st May.
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